Consumption and portfolio rules whit stochastic hyperbolic discounting

We extend the classic Merton (1969, 1971) problem that investigates the joint consumption-savings and portfolio-selection problem under capital risk by assuming sophisticated but time-inconsistent agents. We introduce stochastic hyperbolic preferences as in Harris and Laibson (2013) and find closed-form solutions for Merton's optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem in continuous time. We find that the portfolio rule remains identical to the time-consistent solution with power utility and no borrowing constraints. However,the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth is unambiguously greater than the time-consistent, exponential case and,importantly, it is also more responsive to changes in risk. These results suggest that hyperbolic discounting with sophisticated agents offers promise for contributing to explaining important aspects of asset market data.

Inland fisheries resources and the current status of aquaculture in Sri Lanka

The aim of this working paper was to evaluate the potential of different fisheries enhancement and aquacultural systems to benefit marginal farmers who manage small rainfed irrigation systems in the lowland Dry zone of Sri Lanka. Analysis was based on secondary data and key informant interviews with professional fishermen and marginal farmers in N.W Province. [PDF contains 57 pages]

Fisheries marketing systems and consumer preferences in Puttalam District Sri-Lanka

The aim of this study was to understand the current and historic market situation for inland fish and it’s substitutes in order to identify which of the various production opportunities presented by the seasonal tank resource might have greatest relevance for marginal communities in the Dry-zone. Regional and sub-regional market networks for fish and meat products were investigated, ranking and scoring exercises used to characterise consumer demand in rain-fed areas of North West Province and secondary data sources were used to assess historic patterns of demand and supply [PDF contains 57 pages]

Nutrient dynamics of seasonal tanks in the dry zone of Sri Lanka in relation to their hydrological regimes

Village tanks are put to a wide range of uses by the rural communities that depend on them for their survival. As the primacy of irrigation has decreased under these tanks due to a variety of climatic and economic reasons there is a need to reevaluate their use for other productive functions. The research presented in this paper is part of a programme investigating the potential to improve the management of living aquatic resources in order to bring benefits to the most marginal groups identified in upper watershed areas. Based on an improved typology of seasonal tanks, the seasonal changes and dynamics of various water quality parameters indicative of nutrient status and fisheries carrying capacity are compared over a period of one year. Indicators of Net (Primary) Productivity (NP): Rates of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) change, Total Suspended Solids (TSS): Total Suspended Volatile solids (TVSS) ratios are the parameters of principle interest. Based on these results a comparative analysis is made on two classes of ‘seasonal’ and ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Results indicate a broad correlation in each of these parameters with seasonal trends in tank hydrology. Highest productivity levels are associated with periods of declining water storage, whilst the lowest levels are associated with the periods of maximum water storage shortly after the NW monsoon. This variation is primarily attributed to dilution effects associated with depth and storage area. During the yala period, encroachment of the surface layer by several species of aquatic macrophyte also has progressively negative impacts on productivity. The most seasonal tanks show wider extremes in seasonal nutrient dynamics, overall, with less favourable conditions than the ‘semi-seasonal’ tanks. Never the less all the tanks can be considered as being highly productive with NP levels comparable to fertilised pond systems for much of the year. This indicates that nutrient status is not likely to be amongst the most important constraints to enhancing fish production. Other potential management improvements based on these results are discussed. [PDF contains 19 pages]

Recovery and status of shortnose sturgeon in the Hudson River

Shortnose sturgeon (Acipenser brevirostrum), an endangered species, has experienced a several-fold increase in abundance in the Hudson River in recent decades. This population growth followed a substantial improvement in water quality during the 1970s to a large portion (c. 40%) of the species' summertime nursery area. Age structure and growth were investigated to evaluate the hypothesis that improvements in water quality stimulated population recovery through increased survival of young of the year juveniles. Specimens were captured using gill nets bi-monthly from November 2003 to November 2004 (n = 596). Annuli in fin spine sections were used to generate estimates of sturgeon age. Based upon a marginal increment analysis, annuli were determined to form at an annual rate. Age determinations yielded a catch composed of age 5-30 years for sizes 49-105cm Total Length (n = 554). Individual growth rate (von Bertalanffy coefficients: TL, = 1045mm, K = 0.07) for the population was similar to previous growth estimates within the Hudson River as well as proximal estuaries. Hindcast year-class strengths, based upon a recent stock assessment (Bain et al. 2000) and corrected for gill net mesh selectivity and cumulative mortality indicated high recruitments (28,000-43,000 yearlings)during 1986-1992, which were preceded and succeeded by c.5-year periods of lower recruitment (5,000-1 5,000 yearlings). Recruitment patterns were corroborated by trends in shortnose sturgeon bycatch from a Hudson utilities-sponsored monitoring program. Results indicated that Hudson River shortnose sturgeon abundance increased due to the formation of several strong year-classes occurring about five years subsequent to improved water quality in important nursery and forage habitats in the upper Hudson River estuary. (PDF contains 108 pages.)

Fish sorting assessments of Clarias gariepinus fingerlings raised in fish tanks

Fish sorting assessments of Clarias gariepinus fingerlings stocked and raised in fish tanks were undertaken for a 6-month culture period: Sorting was undertaken from the first, second, and third months of stocking the fish fingerlings while the control was not sorted at all. The sorting assessments revealed that the twice sorting of fish fingerlings stocked with a Marginal Rate of Return (MRR) of 3.44 was significantly different (p>0.05) from those sorted once with MRR of 0.912, and three times with MRR of 2.65 respectively, thus making twice sorting most advisable for fish farmers utilizing Clarias gariepinus fingerlings for tank aquaculture

Indentification and characterization of a novel CA^(2+)-binding protein in avian erythrocytes

A novel Ca^(2+)-binding protein with Mr of 23 K (designated p23) has been identified in avian erythrocytes and thrombocytes. p23 localizes to the marginal bands (MBs), centrosomes and discrete sites around the nuclear membrane in mature avian erythrocytes. p23 appears to bind Ca^(2+) directly and its interaction with subcellular organelles seems to be modulated by intracellular [Ca^(2+)]. However, its unique protein sequence lacks any known Ca^(2+)-binding motif. Developmental analysis reveals that p23 association to its target structures occurs only at very late stages of bone marrow definitive erythropoeisis. In primitive erythroid cells, p23 distributes diffusely in the cytoplasm and lacks any distinct localization. It is postulated that p23 association to subcellular structures may be induced in part by decreased intracellular [Ca^(2+)]. In vitro and in vivo experiments indicate that p23 does not appear to act as a classical microtubule-associated protein (MAP) but p23 homologues appear to be expressed in MB-containing cells of a variety of species from different vertebrate classes. It has been hypothesized that p23 may play a regulatory role in MB stabilization in a Ca^(2+)-dependent manner.

Binucleated (bnbn) turkey erythrocytes were found to express a truncated p23 variant (designated p21) with identical subcellular localization as p23 except immunostaining reveals the presence of multi-centrosomes in bnbn cells. The p21 sequence has a 62 amino acid deletion at the C-terminus and must therefore have an additional ~40 amino acids at the N-terminus. In addition, p21 seems to have lost the ability to bind Ca^(2+) and its supramolecular interactions are not modulated by intracellular [Ca^(2+)]. These apparent differences between p23 and p21 raised the possibility that the p23/p21 allelism could be the Bn/bn genotype. However, genetic analysis suggested that p23/p21 allelism had no absolute correlation with the Bn/bn genotype.

Mathematical study of complex networks : brain, internet, and power grid

The dissertation is concerned with the mathematical study of various network problems. First, three real-world networks are considered: (i) the human brain network (ii) communication networks, (iii) electric power networks. Although these networks perform very different tasks, they share similar mathematical foundations. The high-level goal is to analyze and/or synthesis each of these systems from a “control and optimization” point of view. After studying these three real-world networks, two abstract network problems are also explored, which are motivated by power systems. The first one is “flow optimization over a flow network” and the second one is “nonlinear optimization over a generalized weighted graph”. The results derived in this dissertation are summarized below.

Brain Networks: Neuroimaging data reveals the coordinated activity of spatially distinct brain regions, which may be represented mathematically as a network of nodes (brain regions) and links (interdependencies). To obtain the brain connectivity network, the graphs associated with the correlation matrix and the inverse covariance matrix—describing marginal and conditional dependencies between brain regions—have been proposed in the literature. A question arises as to whether any of these graphs provides useful information about the brain connectivity. Due to the electrical properties of the brain, this problem will be investigated in the context of electrical circuits. First, we consider an electric circuit model and show that the inverse covariance matrix of the node voltages reveals the topology of the circuit. Second, we study the problem of finding the topology of the circuit based on only measurement. In this case, by assuming that the circuit is hidden inside a black box and only the nodal signals are available for measurement, the aim is to find the topology of the circuit when a limited number of samples are available. For this purpose, we deploy the graphical lasso technique to estimate a sparse inverse covariance matrix. It is shown that the graphical lasso may find most of the circuit topology if the exact covariance matrix is well-conditioned. However, it may fail to work well when this matrix is ill-conditioned. To deal with ill-conditioned matrices, we propose a small modification to the graphical lasso algorithm and demonstrate its performance. Finally, the technique developed in this work will be applied to the resting-state fMRI data of a number of healthy subjects.

Communication Networks: Congestion control techniques aim to adjust the transmission rates of competing users in the Internet in such a way that the network resources are shared efficiently. Despite the progress in the analysis and synthesis of the Internet congestion control, almost all existing fluid models of congestion control assume that every link in the path of a flow observes the original source rate. To address this issue, a more accurate model is derived in this work for the behavior of the network under an arbitrary congestion controller, which takes into account of the effect of buffering (queueing) on data flows. Using this model, it is proved that the well-known Internet congestion control algorithms may no longer be stable for the common pricing schemes, unless a sufficient condition is satisfied. It is also shown that these algorithms are guaranteed to be stable if a new pricing mechanism is used.

Electrical Power Networks: Optimal power flow (OPF) has been one of the most studied problems for power systems since its introduction by Carpentier in 1962. This problem is concerned with finding an optimal operating point of a power network minimizing the total power generation cost subject to network and physical constraints. It is well known that OPF is computationally hard to solve due to the nonlinear interrelation among the optimization variables. The objective is to identify a large class of networks over which every OPF problem can be solved in polynomial time. To this end, a convex relaxation is proposed, which solves the OPF problem exactly for every radial network and every meshed network with a sufficient number of phase shifters, provided power over-delivery is allowed. The concept of “power over-delivery” is equivalent to relaxing the power balance equations to inequality constraints.

Flow Networks: In this part of the dissertation, the minimum-cost flow problem over an arbitrary flow network is considered. In this problem, each node is associated with some possibly unknown injection, each line has two unknown flows at its ends related to each other via a nonlinear function, and all injections and flows need to satisfy certain box constraints. This problem, named generalized network flow (GNF), is highly non-convex due to its nonlinear equality constraints. Under the assumption of monotonicity and convexity of the flow and cost functions, a convex relaxation is proposed, which always finds the optimal injections. A primary application of this work is in the OPF problem. The results of this work on GNF prove that the relaxation on power balance equations (i.e., load over-delivery) is not needed in practice under a very mild angle assumption.

Generalized Weighted Graphs: Motivated by power optimizations, this part aims to find a global optimization technique for a nonlinear optimization defined over a generalized weighted graph. Every edge of this type of graph is associated with a weight set corresponding to the known parameters of the optimization (e.g., the coefficients). The motivation behind this problem is to investigate how the (hidden) structure of a given real/complex valued optimization makes the problem easy to solve, and indeed the generalized weighted graph is introduced to capture the structure of an optimization. Various sufficient conditions are derived, which relate the polynomial-time solvability of different classes of optimization problems to weak properties of the generalized weighted graph such as its topology and the sign definiteness of its weight sets. As an application, it is proved that a broad class of real and complex optimizations over power networks are polynomial-time solvable due to the passivity of transmission lines and transformers.

Characterizing distribution rules for cost sharing games

In noncooperative cost sharing games, individually strategic agents choose resources based on how the welfare (cost or revenue) generated at each resource (which depends on the set of agents that choose the resource) is distributed. The focus is on finding distribution rules that lead to stable allocations, which is formalized by the concept of Nash equilibrium, e.g., Shapley value (budget-balanced) and marginal contribution (not budget-balanced) rules.

Recent work that seeks to characterize the space of all such rules shows that the only budget-balanced distribution rules that guarantee equilibrium existence in all welfare sharing games are generalized weighted Shapley values (GWSVs), by exhibiting a specific 'worst-case' welfare function which requires that GWSV rules be used. Our work provides an exact characterization of the space of distribution rules (not necessarily budget-balanced) for any specific local welfare functions remains, for a general class of scalable and separable games with well-known applications, e.g., facility location, routing, network formation, and coverage games.

We show that all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to GWSV rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. Therefore, it is neither the existence of some worst-case welfare function, nor the restriction of budget-balance, which limits the design to GWSVs. Also, in order to guarantee equilibrium existence, it is necessary to work within the class of potential games, since GWSVs result in (weighted) potential games.

We also provide an alternative characterization—all games conditioned on any fixed local welfare functions possess an equilibrium if and only if the distribution rules are equivalent to generalized weighted marginal contribution (GWMC) rules on some 'ground' welfare functions. This result is due to a deeper fundamental connection between Shapley values and marginal contributions that our proofs expose—they are equivalent given a transformation connecting their ground welfare functions. (This connection leads to novel closed-form expressions for the GWSV potential function.) Since GWMCs are more tractable than GWSVs, a designer can tradeoff budget-balance with computational tractability in deciding which rule to implement.

CMB as a probe of new physics and old times

Cosmic birefringence (CB)---a rotation of photon-polarization plane in vacuum---is a generic signature of new scalar fields that could provide dark energy. Previously, WMAP observations excluded a uniform CB-rotation angle larger than a degree.

In this thesis, we develop a minimum-variance--estimator formalism for reconstructing direction-dependent rotation from full-sky CMB maps, and forecast more than an order-of-magnitude improvement in sensitivity with incoming Planck data and future satellite missions. Next, we perform the first analysis of WMAP-7 data to look for rotation-angle anisotropies and report null detection of the rotation-angle power-spectrum multipoles below L=512, constraining quadrupole amplitude of a scale-invariant power to less than one degree. We further explore the use of a cross-correlation between CMB temperature and the rotation for detecting the CB signal, for different quintessence models. We find that it may improve sensitivity in case of marginal detection, and provide an empirical handle for distinguishing details of new physics indicated by CB.

We then consider other parity-violating physics beyond standard models---in particular, a chiral inflationary-gravitational-wave background. We show that WMAP has no constraining power, while a cosmic-variance--limited experiment would be capable of detecting only a large parity violation. In case of a strong detection of EB/TB correlations, CB can be readily distinguished from chiral gravity waves.

We next adopt our CB analysis to investigate patchy screening of the CMB, driven by inhomogeneities during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). We constrain a toy model of reionization with WMAP-7 data, and show that data from Planck should start approaching interesting portions of the EoR parameter space and can be used to exclude reionization tomographies with large ionized bubbles.

In light of the upcoming data from low-frequency radio observations of the redshifted 21-cm line from the EoR, we examine probability-distribution functions (PDFs) and difference PDFs of the simulated 21-cm brightness temperature, and discuss the information that can be recovered using these statistics. We find that PDFs are insensitive to details of small-scale physics, but highly sensitive to the properties of the ionizing sources and the size of ionized bubbles.

Finally, we discuss prospects for related future investigations.

Hatchery construction and its feasibility in the Nigerian economy

Aquaculture drive in the Niger Delta has necessitated the springing up of various forms of hatcheries in Nigeria in the area. The hatchery level is high as most fish farmers now want to produce their own fingerlings for the stocking of their production ponds for culture to market (table) size. The paper shows that there is a lot of market in the Niger-Delta for fresh fish. Majority of the numerous fish farmers are not well empowered to breed and produce fish seeds especially species most loved and eaten. The rising cost of materials in the Nigerian economy has become a bottleneck in the construction of more fish hatcheries for fingerling production. However, the assistance of multinationals has become very necessary to enhance its feasibility to encourage better involvement in the fish hatchery works. One remarkable area where assistance is being felt by the communities in the Niger-Delta is in fish farming and more so in the supply of fish fingerling to top fish farmers by The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC), a multinational oil company in the area. Few fish farmers have benefited from this. If more hatcheries are available to service and provide the needed fingerlings to stock the available water bodies such as, home backyard ponds, the 0.74 million hectares of brackish water, 1.01 million hectares of perennial swamps, and other marginal land available for aquaculture and properly managed, it will yield between 2.5 and 10 metric tones of fish depending on the species stocked and bred

An overview of the challenges and prospects in developing an aquaculture industry in Lagos State, Nigeria

Macroeconomic growth and the development of sustainable business activities are interrelated. In Lagos State, aquaculture is a marginal economic activity thriving mainly on a semi-intensive level. Notwithstanding the available potentials for the development of successful commercial aquaculture enterprises in the state, the transformation to a full-flagged industry continues to be undetermined by certain critical factors. Feasible development strategies may be sought in increasing all stakeholders' capacity in the formulation of policies, plans and regulations, a complete separation of aquaculture from the capture fisheries in administrative structure and policy; the adoption of precautionary approach; provision of economic incentives to enhance private investments and increase output,respectively

Financial equilibrium, voting procedures, and coalition structures in allocational mechanisms

This thesis is comprised of three chapters, each of which is concerned with properties of allocational mechanisms which include voting procedures as part of their operation. The theme of interaction between economic and political forces recurs in the three chapters, as described below.

Chapter One demonstrates existence of a non-controlling interest shareholders' equilibrium for a stylized one-period stock market economy with fewer securities than states of the world. The economy has two decision mechanisms: Owners vote to change firms' production plans across states, fixing shareholdings; and individuals trade shares and the current production / consumption good, fixing production plans. A shareholders' equilibrium is a production plan profile, and a shares / current good allocation stable for both mechanisms. In equilibrium, no (Kramer direction-restricted) plan revision is supported by a share-weighted majority, and there exists no Pareto superior reallocation.

Chapter Two addresses efficient management of stationary-site, fixed-budget, partisan voter registration drives. Sufficient conditions obtain for unique optimal registrar deployment within contested districts. Each census tract is assigned an expected net plurality return to registration investment index, computed from estimates of registration, partisanship, and turnout. Optimum registration intensity is a logarithmic transformation of a tract's index. These conditions are tested using a merged data set including both census variables and Los Angeles County Registrar data from several 1984 Assembly registration drives. Marginal registration spending benefits, registrar compensation, and the general campaign problem are also discussed.

The last chapter considers social decision procedures at a higher level of abstraction. Chapter Three analyzes the structure of decisive coalition families, given a quasitransitive-valued social decision procedure satisfying the universal domain and ITA axioms. By identifying those alternatives X* ⊆ X on which the Pareto principle fails, imposition in the social ranking is characterized. Every coaliton is weakly decisive for X* over X~X*, and weakly antidecisive for X~X* over X*; therefore, alternatives in X~X* are never socially ranked above X*. Repeated filtering of alternatives causing Pareto failure shows states in X^n*~X^((n+1))* are never socially ranked above X^((n+1))*. Limiting results of iterated application of the *-operator are also discussed.

Oxygen, carbon and hydrogen isotope studies of contact metamorphism

The O¹⁸/O¹⁶, C¹³/C¹², and D/H ratios have been determined for rocks and coexisting minerals from several granitic plutons and their contact metamorphic aureoles in northern Nevada, eastern California, central Colorado, and Texas, with emphasis on oxygen isotopes. A consistent order of O¹⁸/O¹⁶, C¹³/C¹², and D/H enrichment in coexisting minerals, and a correlation between isotopic fractionations among coexisting mineral pairs are in general observed, suggesting that mineral assemblages tend to approach isotopic equilibrium during contact metamorphism. In certain cases, a correlation is observed between oxygen isotopic fractionations of a mineral pair and sample distance from intrusive contacts. Isotopic temperatures generally show good agreement with heat flow considerations. Based on the experimentally determined quartz-muscovite O¹⁸/O¹⁶ fractionation calibration curve, temperatures are estimated to be 525 to 625°C at the contacts of the granitic stocks studied.

Small-scale oxygen isotope exchange effects between intrusive and country rock are observed over distances of 0.5 to 3 feet on both sides of the contacts; the isotopic gradients are typically 2 to 3 per mil per foot. The degree of oxygen isotopic exchange is essentially identical for different coexisting minerals. This presumably occurred through a diffusion-controlled recrystallization process. The size of the oxygen isotope equilibrium systems in the small-scale exchanged zones vary from about 1.5 cm to 30 cm. A xenolith and a re-entrant of country rock projecting into on intrusive hove both undergone much more extensive isotopic exchange (to hundreds of feet); they also show abnormally high isotopic temperatures. The marginal portions of most plutons have unusually high O¹⁸/O¹⁶ ratios compared to "normal" igneous rocks, presumably due to large-scale isotopic exchange with meta-sedimentary country rocks when the igneous rocks were essentially in a molten state. The isotopic data suggest that outward horizontal movement of H₂O into the contact metamorphic aureoles is almost negligible, but upward movement of H₂O may be important. Also, direct influx and absorption of water from the country rock may be significant in certain intrusive stocks.

Except in the exchanged zones, the O¹⁸/O¹⁶ ratios of pelitic rocks do not change appreciably during contact metamorphism, even in the cordierite and sillimanite grades; this is in contrast to regional metamorphic rocks which commonly decrease in O¹⁸ with increasing grade. Low O¹⁸/O¹⁶ and C¹³/C¹² ratios of the contact metamorphic marbles generally correlate well with the presence of calc-silicate minerals, indicating that the CO₂ liberated during metamorphic decarbonation reactions is enriched in both O¹⁸ and C¹³ relative to the carbonates.

The D/H ratios of biotites in the contact metamorphic rocks and their associated intrusions show a geographic correlation that is similar to that shown by the D/H ratios of meteoric surface waters, perhaps indicating that meteoric waters were present in the rocks during crystallization of the biotites.

A bayesian probabilistic approach to structural health monitoring

A Bayesian probabilistic methodology for on-line structural health monitoring which addresses the issue of parameter uncertainty inherent in problem is presented. The method uses modal parameters for a limited number of modes identified from measurements taken at a restricted number of degrees of freedom of a structure as the measured structural data. The application presented uses a linear structural model whose stiffness matrix is parameterized to develop a class of possible models. Within the Bayesian framework, a joint probability density function (PDF) for the model stiffness parameters given the measured modal data is determined. Using this PDF, the marginal PDF of the stiffness parameter for each substructure given the data can be calculated.

Monitoring the health of a structure using these marginal PDFs involves two steps. First, the marginal PDF for each model parameter given modal data from the undamaged structure is found. The structure is then periodically monitored and updated marginal PDFs are determined. A measure of the difference between the calibrated and current marginal PDFs is used as a means to characterize the health of the structure. A procedure for interpreting the measure for use by an expert system in on-line monitoring is also introduced.

The probabilistic framework is developed in order to address the model parameter uncertainty issue inherent in the health monitoring problem. To illustrate this issue, consider a very simplified deterministic structural health monitoring method. In such an approach, the model parameters which minimize an error measure between the measured and model modal values would be used as the "best" model of the structure. Changes between the model parameters identified using modal data from the undamaged structure and subsequent modal data would be used to find the existence, location and degree of damage. Due to measurement noise, limited modal information, and model error, the "best" model parameters might vary from one modal dataset to the next without any damage present in the structure. Thus, difficulties would arise in separating normal variations in the identified model parameters based on limitations of the identification method and variations due to true change in the structure. The Bayesian framework described in this work provides a means to handle this parametric uncertainty.

The probabilistic health monitoring method is applied to simulated data and laboratory data. The results of these tests are presented.