Dynamics of Land Use in Recently Settled Forest Areas: a Case Study of Attappady , Kerala

The present study on the dynamics of land use in recently settled forest areas. In the course of events, tribals lost their land; the demographic structure of Attappady changed; the cropping pattern got diversified; traditional techniques of production were ruined; new crops and new techniques of cultivation came to stay; and the entire cost and return structure of production underwent radical change. Migration to Attappady is essentially a continuation of the Malabar migration process from Travancore, through, some people from Tamil Nadu also had migrated to this region earlier. The demographic structure, along with land structure, has changed in favour of the settlers within a short span of time. Lack of security of ownership has acted as a strong reason for wanton exploitation of land resources. The major influencing factors on crop choices among settlers were labour endowment, date of settlement and education. Attappady is an unique ecosystem in Kerala characterized by many interdependables. The latest hand of environmental degradation is a grave danger especially on sloppy terrains,which are under cultivation of tapioca and dry annual crops like groundnuts, cotton, grams etc. Soil erosion as a result of the unplanned cultivation of these crops has resulted in dramatic decline in soil fertility and hence low crop productivity. This calls for a watershed management approach for the sustainable development of the region. A progressive agrarian transformation is warranted to maintain the homegarden as a sustainable production system in ecological and socio-economic terms.

Steady state and dynamic modelling of nitrogen in the River Kennet: impacts of land use change since the 1930s

Steady state and dynamic models have been developed and applied to the River Kennet system. Annual nitrogen exports from the land surface to the river have been estimated based on land use from the 1930s and the 1990s. Long term modelled trends indicate that there has been a large increase in nitrogen transport into the river system driven by increased fertiliser application associated with increased cereal production, increased population and increased livestock levels. The dynamic model INCA Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments. has been applied to simulate the day-to-day transport of N from the terrestrial ecosystem to the riverine environment. This process-based model generates spatial and temporal data and reproduces the observed instream concentrations. Applying the model to current land use and 1930s land use indicates that there has been a major shift in the short term dynamics since the 1930s, with increased river and groundwater concentrations caused by both non-point source pollution from agriculture and point source discharges. �

The role of CO2 and dynamic vegetation on the impact of temperate land use change in the HadCM3 coupled climate model

Human induced land-use change (LUC) alters the biogeophysical characteristics of the land surface influencing the surface energy balance. The level of atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase in the coming century and beyond, modifying temperature and precipitation patterns and altering the distribution and physiology of natural vegetation. It is important to constrain how CO2-induced climate and vegetation change may influence the regional extent to which LUC alters climate. This sensitivity study uses the HadCM3 coupled climate model under a range of equilibrium forcings to show that the impact of LUC declines under increasing atmospheric CO2, specifically in temperate and boreal regions. A surface energy balance analysis is used to diagnose how these changes occur. In Northern Hemisphere winter this pattern is attributed in part to the decline in winter snow cover and in the summer due to a reduction in latent cooling with higher levels of CO2. The CO2-induced change in natural vegetation distribution is also shown to play a significant role. Simulations run at elevated CO2 yet present day vegetation show a significantly increased sensitivity to LUC, driven in part by an increase in latent cooling. This study shows that modelling the impact of LUC needs to accurately simulate CO2 driven changes in precipitation and snowfall, and incorporate accurate, dynamic vegetation distribution.

Cellular automata-based spatial dynamic modeling for analyzing urban land use change

This paper analyzes land use change in Rio Claro City and its surroundings, located in the southeastern state of Sao Paulo, in the period from 1988 to 1995, using air-borne digital imagery and a cellular automata model. The simulation experiment was carried out in the Dinamica EGO platform and the results revealed a constrained urban sprawl, resulting from both the densification of residential areas implemented in previous years and the economic recession that led to an internal financial crisis in Brazil during the early 1990s. The simulation outputs were validated using a multi-resolution procedure based on a fuzzy similarity index and showed a satisfactory fitness in relation to the historical reference data. © 2013 IEEE.

Impacts of changing climate and land use on vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean ecosystem: insights from paleoecology and dynamic modeling

Forests near the Mediterranean coast have been shaped by millennia of human disturbance. Consequently, ecological studies relying on modern observations or historical records may have difficulty assessing natural vegetation dynamics under current and future climate. We combined a sedimentary pollen record from Lago di Massacciucoli, Tuscany, Italy with simulations from the LandClim dynamic vegetation model to determine what vegetation preceded intense human disturbance, how past changes in vegetation relate to fire and browsing, and the potential of an extinct vegetation type under present climate. We simulated vegetation dynamics near Lago di Massaciucoli for the last 7,000 years using a local chironomid-inferred temperature reconstruction with combinations of three fire regimes (small infrequent, large infrequent, small frequent) and three browsing intensities (no browsing, light browsing, and moderate browsing), and compared model output to pollen data. Simulations with low disturbance support pollen-inferred evidence for a mixed forest dominated by Quercus ilex (a Mediterranean species) and Abies alba (a montane species). Whereas pollen data record the collapse of A. alba after 6000 cal yr bp, simulated populations expanded with declining summer temperatures during the late Holocene. Simulations with increased fire and browsing are consistent with evidence for expansion by deciduous species after A. alba collapsed. According to our combined paleo-environmental and modeling evidence, mixed Q. ilex and A. alba forests remain possible with current climate and limited disturbance, and provide a viable management objective for ecosystems near the Mediterranean coast and in regions that are expected to experience a mediterranean-type climate in the future.

Using indicators of deforestation and land-use dynamics to support conservation strategies: A case study of central Rondonia, Brazil

In Rondonia State, Brazil, settlement processes have cleared 68,000 km 2 of tropical forests since the 1970s. The intensity of deforestation has differed by region depending on driving factors like roads and economic activities. Different histories of land-use activities and rates of change have resulted in mosaics of forest patches embedded in an agricultural matrix. Yet, most assessments of deforestation and its effects on vegetation, soil and water typically focus on landscape patterns of current conditions, yet historical deforestation dynamics can influence current conditions strongly. Here, we develop and describe the use of four land-use dynamic indicators to capture historical land-use changes of catchments and to measure the rate of deforestation (annual deforestation rate), forest regeneration level (secondary forest mean proportion), time since disturbance (mean time since deforestation) and deforestation profile (deforestation profile curvature). We used the proposed indices to analyze a watershed located in central Rondonia. Landsat TM and ETM+ images were used to produce historical land-use maps of the last 18 years, each even year from 1984 to 2002 for 20 catchments. We found that the land-use dynamics indicators are able to distinguish catchments with different land-use change profiles. Four categories of historical land-use were identified: old and dominant pasture cover on small properties, recent deforestation and dominance of secondary growth, old extensive pastures and large forest remnants and, recent deforestation, pasture and large forest remnants. Knowing historical deforestation processes is important to develop appropriate conservation strategies and define priorities and actions for conserving forests currently under deforestation. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The effects of land-use development policies on forest management

This paper develops a model of a forest owner operating in an open-city environment, where the rent for developed land is increasing concave in nearby preserved open space and is rising over time reflecting an upward trend in households’ income. Thus, our model creates the possibility of switching from forestry to residential use at some point in the future. In addition it allows the optimal harvest length to vary over time even if stumpage prices and regeneration costs remain constant. Within this framework we examine how adjacent preserved open space and alternative development constraints affect the private landowner´s decisions. We find that in the presence of rising income, preserved open space hastens regeneration and conversion cuts but leads to lower density development of nearby unzoned parcels due to indirect dynamic effects. We also find that both a binding development moratorium and a binding minimum-lot-size policy can postpone regeneration and conversion cut dates and thus help to protect open space even if only temporarily. However, the policies do not have the same effects on development density of converted forestland. While the former leads to high-density development, the latter encourages low-density development.

Knowing the past to predict the future: land-use change and the distribution of invasive bullfrogs

Biological invasions and land-use changes are two major causes of the global modifications of biodiversity. Habitat suitability models are the tools of choice to predict potential distributions of invasive species. Although land-use is a key driver of alien species invasions, it is often assumed that land-use is constant in time. Here we combine historical and present day information, to evaluate whether land-use changes could explain the dynamic of invasion of the American bullfrog Rana catesbeiana (=Lithobathes catesbeianus) in Northern Italy, from the 1950s to present-day. We used maxent to build habitat suitability models, on the basis of past (1960s, 1980s) and present-day data on land-uses and species distribution. For example, we used models built using the 1960s data to predict distribution in the 1980s, and so on. Furthermore, we used land-use scenarios to project suitability in the future. Habitat suitability models predicted well the spread of bullfrogs in the subsequent temporal step. Models considering land-use changes predicted invasion dynamics better than models assuming constant land-use over the last 50 years. Scenarios of future land-use suggest that suitability will remain similar in the next years. Habitat suitability models can help to understand and predict the dynamics of invasions; however, land-use is not constant in time: land-use modifications can strongly affect invasions; furthermore, both land management and the suitability of a given land-use class may vary in time. An integration of land-use changes in studies of biological invasions can help to improve management strategies.

Chemical and mineralogical changes in a Brazilian Rhodic Paleudult under different land use and managements

Changes in land use and management can affect the dynamic equilibrium of soil systems and induce chemical and mineralogical alterations. This study was based on two long-term experiments (10 and 27 years) to evaluate soil used for no-tillage maize cultivation, with and without poultry litter application (NTPL and NTM), and with grazed native pasture fertilized with cattle droppings (GrP), on the chemical and mineralogical characteristics of a Rhodic Paleudult in Southern Brazil, in comparison with the same soil under native grassland (NGr). In the four treatments, soil was sampled from the 0.0-2.5 and 2.5-5.0 cm layers. In the air-dried fine soil (ADFS) fraction (∅ < 2 mm), chemical characteristics of solid and liquid phases and the specific surface area (SSA) were evaluated. The clay fraction (∅ < 0.002 mm) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer was analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD) after treatments for identification and characterization of 2:1 clay minerals. Animal waste application increased the total organic C concentration (COT) and specific surface area (SSA) in the 0.0-2.5 cm layer. In comparison to NGr, poultry litter application (NTPL) increased the concentrations of Ca and CECpH7, while cattle droppings (GrP) increased the P and K concentrations. In the soil solution, the concentration of dissolved organic C was positively related with COT levels. With regard to NGr, the soil use with crops (NTM and NTPL) had practically no effect on the chemical elements in solution. On the other hand, the concentrations of most chemical elements in solution were higher in GrP, especially of Fe, Al and Si. The Fe and Al concentrations in the soil iron oxides were lower, indicating reductive/complexive dissolution of crystalline forms. The X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns of clay in the GrP environment showed a decrease in intensity and reflection area of the 2:1 clay minerals. This fact, along with the intensified Al and Si activity in soil solution indicate dissolution of clay minerals in soil under cattle-grazed pasture fertilized with animal droppings.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Why have land use change models for the Amazon failed to capture the amount of deforestation over the last decade?

Land cover change in the Neotropics represents one of the major drivers of global environmental change. Several models have been proposed to explore future trajectories of land use and cover change, particularly in the Amazon. Despite the remarkable development of these tools, model results are still surrounded by uncertainties. None of the model projections available in the literature plausibly captured the overall trajectory of land use and cover change that has been observed in the Amazon over the last decade. In this context, this study aims to review and analyze the general structure of the land use models that have most recently been used to explore land use change in the Amazon, seeking to investigate methodological factors that could explain the divergence between the observed and projected rates, paying special attention to the land demand calculations. Based on this review, the primary limitations inherent to this type of model and the extent to which these limitations can affect the consistency of the projections will also be analyzed. Finally, we discuss potential drivers that could have influenced the recent dynamic of the land use system in the Amazon and produced the unforeseen land cover change trajectory observed in this period. In a complementary way, the primary challenges of the new generation of land use models for the Amazon are synthesized. (c) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land-use and land-cover change in Atlantic Forest landscapes

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most threatened tropical biomes, with much of the standing forest in small (less than 50 ha), disturbed and isolated patches. The pattern of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) which has resulted in this critical scenario has not yet been fully investigated. Here, we describe the LULCC in three Atlantic Forest fragmented landscapes (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1960-1980s and 1980-2000s. The three studied landscapes differ in the current proportion of forest cover, having 10%, 30% and 50% respectively. Between the 1960s and 1980s. forest cover of two landscapes was reduced while the forest cover in the third landscape increased slightly. The opposite trend was observed between the 1980s and 2000s: forest regeneration was greater than deforestation at the landscapes with 10% and 50% of forest cover and, as a consequence, forest cover increased. By contrast, the percentage of forest cover at the landscape with 30% of forest cover was drastically reduced between the 1980s and 2000s. LULCC deviated from a random trajectory, were not constant through time in two study landscapes and were not constant across space in a given time period. This landscape dynamism in single locations over small temporal scales is a key factor to be considered in models of LULCC to accurately simulate future changes for the Atlantic Forest. In general, forest patches became more isolated when deforestation was greater than forest regeneration and became more connected when forest regeneration was greater than deforestation. As a result of the dynamic experienced by the study landscapes, individual forest patches currently consist of a mosaic of different forest age classes which is likely to impact bio-diversity. Furthermore, landscape dynamics suggests the beginning of a forest transition in some Atlantic Forest regions, what could be of great importance for biodiversity conservation due to the potential effects of young secondary forests in reducing forest isolation and maintaining a significant amount of the original biodiversity. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Past and future carbon fluxes from land use change, shifting cultivation and wood harvest

Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use (LU) and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross LUC) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross LUC. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27–151 GtC for the next 95 yr following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reproduces results based on LUH data with full transition information within <0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other LU scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2, contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.