Does Money Matter in the Euro area? Evidence from a new Divisia Index. Bruegel Working Paper 2014/12, 6 November 2014

The purpose of this paper is to examine the possible role of money shocks on output and prices in the euro area. Since no Divisia monetary aggregates are available for the euro area, we first create and make available a database on euro-area Divisia monetary aggregates. We plan to update the dataset in the future and keep it publicly available. Using different SVAR models, we find sensible and statistically significant responses to Divisia money shocks, while the responses to simple-sum measures of money and interest rates are not statistically significant, and sometimes even the point estimates are not sensible.

Divisia indexes, money and welfare

We suggest the use of a particular Divisia index for measuring welfare losses due to interest rate wedges and in‡ation. Compared to the existing options in the literature: i) when the demands for the monetary assets are known, closed-form solutions for the welfare measures can be obtained at a relatively lower algebraic cost; ii) less demanding integrability conditions allow for the recovery of welfare measures from a larger class of demand systems and; iii) when the demand speci…cations are not known, using an index number entitles the researcher to rank di¤erent vectors of opportunity costs directly from market observations. We use two examples to illustrate the method.

A comparison of linear forecasting models and neural networks:an application to Euro inflation and Euro Divisia

Linear models reach their limitations in applications with nonlinearities in the data. In this paper new empirical evidence is provided on the relative Euro inflation forecasting performance of linear and non-linear models. The well established and widely used univariate ARIMA and multivariate VAR models are used as linear forecasting models whereas neural networks (NN) are used as non-linear forecasting models. It is endeavoured to keep the level of subjectivity in the NN building process to a minimum in an attempt to exploit the full potentials of the NN. It is also investigated whether the historically poor performance of the theoretically superior measure of the monetary services flow, Divisia, relative to the traditional Simple Sum measure could be attributed to a certain extent to the evaluation of these indices within a linear framework. Results obtained suggest that non-linear models provide better within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts and linear models are simply a subset of them. The Divisia index also outperforms the Simple Sum index when evaluated in a non-linear framework. © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd.

Energy intensity in road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles in Spain

This paper examines the factors that have influenced the energy intensity of the Spanish road freight transport of heavy goods vehicles over the period 1996–2012. This article aims to contribute to a better understanding of the factors behind the energy intensity change of road freight and also to inform the design of measures to improve energy efficiency in road freight transport. The paper uses both annual single-period and chained multi-period multiplicative LMDI-II decomposition analysis. The results suggest that the decrease in the energy intensity of Spanish road freight in the period is explained by the change in the real energy intensity index (lower energy consumption per tonne-kilometre transported), which is partially offset by the behaviour of the structural index (greater share in freight transport of those commodities the transportation of which is more energy intensive). The change in energy intensity is analysed in more depth by quantifying the contribution of each commodity through the attribution of changes in Divisia indices.

An ordering of measures of the welfare cost of inflation in economies with interest-bearing deposits

This paper builds on Lucas (2000) and on Cysne (2003) to derive and order six alternative measures of the welfare costs of inflation (five of which already existing in the literature) for any vector of opportunity costs. The ordering of the functions is carried out for economies with or without interestbearing deposits. We provide examples and closed-form solutions for the log-log money demand both in the unidimensional and in the multidimensional setting (when interest-bearing monies are present). An estimate of the maximum relative error a researcher can incur when using any particular measure is also provided.

Welfare costs of inflation when interest-bearing deposits are disregarded: a calculation of the bias

Most estimates of the welfare costs of in ation are devised considering only noninterest- bearing assets, ignoring that since the 80s technological innovations and new regulations have increased the liquidity of interest-bearing deposits. We investigate the resulting bias. Suscient and necessary conditions on its sign are presented, along with closed-form expressions for its magnitude. Two examples dealing with bidimensional bilogarithmic money demands show that disregarding interest-bearing monies may lead to a non-negligible overestimation of the welfare costs of in ation. An intuitive explanation is that such assets may partially make up for the decreased demand of noninterest-bearing assets due to higher in ation.

Household sector money demand for the UK

We test for the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for the UK involving household-sector Divisia and simple sum monetary indexes for the period from 1977 to 2008. We construct our Divisia index using non-break-adjusted levels and break-adjusted flows following the Bank of England. We test for cointegration between the real Divisia and simple sum indexes, their corresponding opportunity cost measures, real income and real share prices. Our results support the existence of a long-run money demand relationship for both the Divisia and simple sum indexes.

Measuring productivity growth when technological change is biased - a new index and an application to UK agriculture

Productivity growth is conventionally measured by indices representing discreet approximations of the Divisia TFP index under the assumption that technological change is Hicks-neutral. When this assumption is violated, these indices are no longer meaningful because they conflate the effects of factor accumulation and technological change. We propose a way of adjusting the conventional TFP index that solves this problem. The method adopts a latent variable approach to the measurement of technical change biases that provides a simple means of correcting product and factor shares in the standard Tornqvist-Theil TFP index. An application to UK agriculture over the period 1953-2000 demonstrates that technical progress is strongly biased. The implications of that bias for productivity measurement are shown to be very large, with the conventional TFP index severely underestimating productivity growth. The result is explained primarily by the fact that technological change has favoured the rapidly accumulating factors against labour, the factor leaving the sector. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

We compare two methods in order to predict inflation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture is evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Evaluating the performance of a EuroDivisia index using artificial intelligence techniques

This paper compares two methods to predict in°ation rates in Europe. One method uses a standard back propagation neural network and the other uses an evolutionary approach, where the network weights and the network architecture are evolved. Results indicate that back propagation produces superior results. However, the evolving network still produces reasonable results with the advantage that the experimental set-up is minimal. Also of interest is the fact that the Divisia measure of money is superior as a predictive tool over simple sum.

Association Between Parity, Pre-pregnancy Body Mass Index And Gestational Weight Gain.

To analyze the relationship between parity, pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI), and gestational weight gain (GWG). This observational controlled study was conducted from November 2013 to April 2014, with postpartum women who started antenatal care up to 14 weeks and had full-term births. Data were collected from medical records and antenatal cards. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were performed. The significance level was 5%. Data were collected from 130 primiparous and 160 multiparous women. At the beginning of prenatal care, 54.62% of the primiparous were eutrophic, while the majority of multiparous were overweight or obese (62.51%). Multiparas are two times more likely to be obese at the beginning of their pregnancies, when compared to primiparas. The average pre-pregnancy weight and final pregnancy weight was significantly higher in multiparous, however, the mean GWG was higher among primiparous. We found an inverse correlation between parity and the total GWG, but initial BMI was significantly higher in multiparas. Nevertheless, monitoring of the GWG through actions that promote a healthier lifestyle is needed, regardless of parity and nutritional status, in order to prevent excessive GWG and postpartum weight retention and consequently inadequate pre-pregnancy nutritional status in future pregnancies.

Sorghum Flour Fractions: Correlations Among Polysaccharides, Phenolic Compounds, Antioxidant Activity And Glycemic Index.

Nutrients composition, phenolic compounds, antioxidant activity and estimated glycemic index (EGI) were evaluated in sorghum bran (SB) and decorticated sorghum flour (DSF), obtained by a rice-polisher, as well as whole sorghum flour (WSF). Correlation between EGI and the studied parameters were determined. SB presented the highest protein, lipid, ash, β-glucan, total and insoluble dietary fiber contents; and the lowest non-resistant and total starch contents. The highest carbohydrate and resistant starch contents were in DSF and WSF, respectively. Phenolic compounds and antioxidant activities were concentrated in SB. The EGI values were: DSF 84.5±0.41; WSF 77.2±0.33; and SB 60.3±0.78. Phenolic compounds, specific flavonoids and antioxidant activities, as well as total, insoluble and soluble dietary fiber and β-glucans of sorghum flour samples were all negatively correlated to EGI. RS content was not correlated to EGI.

Validação da Body Appreciation Scale (BAS), Life Satisfaction Index for the Third Age (LSITA) e do Aging Perception Questionnaire (APQ) para a língua portuguesa no Brasil : um estudo em idosos brasileiros

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Association of polymorphisms at the ADIPOR1 regulatory region with type 2 diabetes and body mass index in a Brazilian population with European or African ancestry

Association studies between ADIPOR1 genetic variants and predisposition to type 2 diabetes (DM2) have provided contradictory results. We determined if two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP c.-8503G>A and SNP c.10225C>G) in regulatory regions of ADIPOR1 in 567 Brazilian individuals of European (EA; N = 443) or African (AfA; N = 124) ancestry from rural (quilombo remnants; N = 439) and urban (N = 567) areas. We detected a significant effect of ethnicity on the distribution of the allelic frequencies of both SNPs in these populations (EA: -8503A = 0.27; AfA: -8503A = 0.16; P = 0.001 and EA: 10225G = 0.35; AfA: 10225G = 0.51; P < 0.001). Neither of the polymorphisms were associated with DM2 in the case-control study in EA (SNP c.-8503G>A: DM2 group -8503A = 0.26; control group -8503A = 0.30; P = 0.14/SNP 10225C>G: DM2 group 10225G = 0.37; control group 10225G = 0.32; P = 0.40) and AfA populations (SNP c.-8503G>A: DM2 group -8503A = 0.16; control group -8503A = 0.15; P = 0.34/SNP 10225C>G: DM2 group 10225G = 0.51; control group 10225G = 0.52; P = 0.50). Similarly, none of the polymorphisms were associated with metabolic/anthropometric risk factors for DM2 in any of the three populations, except for HDL cholesterol, which was significantly higher in AfA heterozygotes (GC = 53.75 ± 17.26 mg/dL) than in homozygotes. We conclude that ADIPOR1 polymorphisms are unlikely to be major risk factors for DM2 or for metabolic/anthropometric measurements that represent risk factors for DM2 in populations of European and African ancestries.

Diet quality index adjusted for energy requirements in adults

This study aimed to develop a diet quality index (DQI-a) adjusted for energy requirement. Dietary intake of adults was assessed using 24-hour food recall. The DQI was developed for scores evenly distributed across ten items characterizing different aspects of diet: food groups, nutrients, and variety. The components categorized under the food groups from the Dietary Guide for Brazilians were adjusted according to the estimated energy requirements of the population studied. Index consistency and correlation with nutrients of the diet was analyzed by Cronbach's alpha. A total of 737 individuals were assessed and energy requirements ranged from 1,800 to 2,500kcal among women and 2,500 to 3,400kcal in men. The food group with greatest variation in total portions was cereals and tubers. Cronbach's alpha of the DQI-a was 0.643 and the index correlated with most of the nutrients. The DQI-a can be considered a valuable instrument for assessing diet quality of the Brazilian population.