Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

Declining pine growth in Central Spain coincides with increasing diurnal temperature range since the 1970s

Growing evidence suggests environmental change to be most severe across the semi-arid subtropics, with past, present and projected drying of the Mediterranean Basin posing a key multidisciplinary challenge. Consideration of a single climatic factor, however, often fails to explain spatiotemporal growth dynamics of drought-prone ecosystems. Here, we present annually resolved and absolutely dated ring width measurements of 871 Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) from 18 individual plot sites in the Central Spanish Pinar Grande forest reserve. Although comprising tree ages from 6 to 175 years, this network correlates surprisingly well with the inverse May–July diurnal temperature range (r = 0.84; p < 0.00011956–2011). Ring width extremes were triggered by pressure anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the long-term growth decline coincided with Iberian-wide drying since the mid-1970s. Climate model simulations not only confirm this negative trend over the last decades but also project drought to continuously increase over the 21st century. Associated ecological effects and socio-economic consequences should be considered to improve adaptation strategies of agricultural and forest management, as well as biodiversity conservation and ecosystem service.

Effect of diurnal cycling temperatures on cardiovascular- ventilatory function in statically-acclimated rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri

Four groups of rainbow trout, Salmo gairdneri, were acclimated to 2°, 10°, and 18°e, and to a diurnal temperature cycle (100 ± 4°C). To evaluate the influence of cycling temperatures in terms of an immediate as opposed to acclimatory response various ventilatory-cardiovascular rate functions were observed for trout, either acclimated to cycling temperatures or acclimated to constant temperatures and exposed to a diurnal temperature cycle for the first time (10° ± 4°C for trout acclimated to 10°C; 18°+ 4°C for trout acclimated to l8°e). Gill resistance and the cardiac to ventilatory rate ratio were then calculated. Following a post preparatory recovery period of 36 hr, measurements were made over a 48 hour period with the first 24 hours being at constant temperature in the case of statically-acclimated fish followed by 24 hours under cyclic temperature conditions. Trout exhibited marked changes in oxygen consumption (Vo ) with temp- 2 erature both between acclimation groups, and in response to the diurnal temperature cycle. This increase in oxygen uptake appears to have been achieved by adjustment of ventilatory and, to some extent, cardiovascular activity. Trout exhibited significant changes in ventilatory rate (VR), stroke volume (Vsv), and flow (VG) in response to temperature. Marked changes in cardiac rate were also observed. These findings are discussed in relation to their importance in convective oxygen transport via water and blood at the gills and tissues. Trout also exhibited marked changes in pressure waveforms associated with the action of the resp; ratory pumps with temperature. Mean differenti a 1 pressure increased with temperature as did gill resistance and utilization. This data is discussed in relation to its importance in diffusive oxygen transport and the conditions for gas exchange at the gills. With one exception, rainbow trout were able to respond to changes in oxygen demand and availability associated with changes in temperature by means of adjustments in ventilation, and possibly pafusion, and the conditions for gas exchange at the gills. Trout acclimated to 18°C, however, and exposed to high cyclic temperatures, showed signs of the ventilatory and cardiovascular distress problems commonly associated with low circulating levels of oxygen in the blood. It appears these trout were unable to fully meet the oxygen requirements associated with c~ling temperatures above 18°C. These findings were discussed in relation to possible limitations in the cardiovascular-ventilatory response at high temperatures. The response of trout acclimated to cycling temperatures was generally similar to that for trout acclimated to constant temperatures and exposed to cycling temperatures for the first time. This result suggested that both groups of fish may have been acclimated to a similar thermal range, regardless of the acclimation regime employed. Such a phenomenon would allow trout of either acclimation group to respond equally well to the imposed temperature cycle. Rainbow trout showed no evidence of significant diurnal rhythm in any parameters observed at constant temperatures (2°, 10°, and 18° C), and under a 12/12 light-dark photoperiod regime. This was not taken to indicate an absence of circadian rhythms in these trout, but rather a deficiency in the recording methods used in the study.

Extended optimal estimation techniques for sea surface temperature from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI)

Sea surface temperature (SST) can be estimated from day and night observations of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infra-Red Imager (SEVIRI) by optimal estimation (OE). We show that exploiting the 8.7 μm channel, in addition to the “traditional” wavelengths of 10.8 and 12.0 μm, improves OE SST retrieval statistics in validation. However, the main benefit is an improvement in the sensitivity of the SST estimate to variability in true SST. In a fair, single-pixel comparison, the 3-channel OE gives better results than the SST estimation technique presently operational within the Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility. This operational technique is to use SST retrieval coefficients, followed by a bias-correction step informed by radiative transfer simulation. However, the operational technique has an additional “atmospheric correction smoothing”, which improves its noise performance, and hitherto had no analogue within the OE framework. Here, we propose an analogue to atmospheric correction smoothing, based on the expectation that atmospheric total column water vapour has a longer spatial correlation length scale than SST features. The approach extends the observations input to the OE to include the averaged brightness temperatures (BTs) of nearby clear-sky pixels, in addition to the BTs of the pixel for which SST is being retrieved. The retrieved quantities are then the single-pixel SST and the clear-sky total column water vapour averaged over the vicinity of the pixel. This reduces the noise in the retrieved SST significantly. The robust standard deviation of the new OE SST compared to matched drifting buoys becomes 0.39 K for all data. The smoothed OE gives SST sensitivity of 98% on average. This means that diurnal temperature variability and ocean frontal gradients are more faithfully estimated, and that the influence of the prior SST used is minimal (2%). This benefit is not available using traditional atmospheric correction smoothing.

Temperature trends at the Mauna Loa observatory, Hawaii

Observations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, established the systematic increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere. For the same reasons that this site provides excellent globally averaged CO2 data, it may provide temperature data with global significance. Here, we examine hourly temperature records, averaged annually for 1977–2006, to determine linear trends as a function of time of day. For night-time data (22:00 to 06:00 LST (local standard time)) there is a near-uniform warming of 0.040 °C yr−1. During the day, the linear trend shows a slight cooling of −0.014 °C yr−1 at 12:00 LST (noon). Overall, at Mauna Loa Observatory, there is a mean warming trend of 0.021 °C yr−1. The dominance of night-time warming results in a relatively large annual decrease in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) of −0.050 °C yr−1 over the period 1977–2006. These trends are consistent with the observed increases in the concentrations of CO2 and its role as a greenhouse gas (demonstrated here by first-order radiative forcing calculations), and indicate the possible relevance of the Mauna Loa temperature measurements to global warming.

Understanding the rapid summer warming and changes in temperature extremes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe

Analysis of observations indicates that there was a rapid increase in summer (June-August, JJA) mean surface air temperature (SAT) since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Accompanying this rapid warming are significant increases in summer mean daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, annual hottest day temperature and warmest night temperature, and an increase in frequency of summer days and tropical nights, while the change in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) is small. This study focuses on understanding causes of the rapid summer warming and associated temperature extreme changes. A set of experiments using the atmospheric component of the state-of-the-art HadGEM3 global climate model have been carried out to quantify relative roles of changes in sea surface temperature (SST)/sea ice extent (SIE), anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), and anthropogenic aerosols (AAer). Results indicate that the model forced by changes in all forcings reproduces many of the observed changes since the mid-1990s over Western Europe. Changes in SST/SIE explain 62.2% ± 13.0% of the area averaged seasonal mean warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37.8% ± 13.6% of the warming explained by the direct impact of changes in GHGs and AAer. Results further indicate that the direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe, mainly through aerosol-radiation interaction with additional contributions from aerosol-cloud interaction and coupled atmosphere-land surface feedbacks, is a key factor for increases in annual hottest day temperature and in frequency of summer days. It explains 45.5% ± 17.6% and 40.9% ± 18.4% of area averaged signals for these temperature extremes. The direct impact of the reduction of AAer precursor emissions over Europe acts to increase DTR locally, but the change in DTR is countered by the direct impact of GHGs forcing. In the next few decades, greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to rise and AAer precursor emissions over Europe and North America will continue to decline. Our results suggest that the changes in summer seasonal mean SAT and temperature extremes over Western Europe since the mid-1990s are most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term, unless other factors intervene.

Effect of feeding whole linseed as a source of polyunsaturated fatty acids on performance and egg characteristics of laying hens kept at high ambient temperature

The present study was conducted to evaluate the effects of feeding whole linseed on the laying performance and egg characteristics in laying hens kept at high ambient environmental temperatures (average 34 degrees C; the diurnal temperature range 26 degrees C to 41 degrees C). Two hundred and forty 38-wk-old white Leghorn laying hens were fed diets containing 0, 5, 10 or 15% whole linseed (as a source of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids) for a period of 12 weeks. Egg production was recorded daily, while feed intake and egg characteristics were monitored on weekly basis. The results of the study demonstrated that egg production and feed intake decreased, while feed conversion ratio (FCR) per dozen of eggs increased (p <= 0.05) with increasing dietary linseed levels. Egg weight, yolk weight, albumen height, eggshell weight, and eggshell thickness were not influenced (p > 0.05) by linseed levels in the diets offered to the laying hens. The results of the present trial suggest that feeding linseed to the laying hens in hot climates has no detrimental effects on egg characteristics, but has suppressive effects on egg production, feed intake and feed efficiency of laying hens.

Analisi espacial del canvi climàtic al continent europeu. Incerteses i exposicions principals

El canvi climàtic del segle XXI és una realitat, hi ha moltes evidències científiques que indiquen que l’escalfament del sistema climàtic és inequívoc. Malgrat això, també hi ha moltes incerteses respecte els impactes que pot comportar aquest canvi climàtic global. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la possible evolució futura de tres variables climàtiques, que són el rang de la temperatura diürna a prop de la superfície (DTR), la temperatura mitjana a prop de la superfície (MT) i la precipitació mensual (PL_mes) i valorar l’exposició que poden experimentar diferents cobertes del sòl i diferents regions biogeogràfiques del continent europeu davant d’aquests possibles patrons de canvi. Per això s’han utilitzat Models Climàtics Globals que fan projeccions de variables climàtiques que permeten preveure el possible clima futur. Mitjançant l’aplicatiu informàtic Tetyn s’han extret els paràmetres climàtics dels conjunts de dades del Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, del futur (TYN SC) i del passat (CRU TS). Les variables obtingudes s’han processat amb eines de sistemes d’informació geogràfica (SIG) per obtenir els patrons de canvi de les variables a cada coberta del sòl. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que hi ha una gran variabilitat, que augmenta amb el temps, entre els diferents models climàtics i escenaris considerats, que posa de manifest la incertesa associada a la modelització climàtica, a la generació d’escenaris d’emissions i a la naturalesa dinàmica i no determinista del sistema climàtic. Però en general, mostren que les glaceres seran una de les cobertes més exposades al canvi climàtic, i la mediterrània, una de les regions més vulnerables

Wind Loads on Dynamic Message Cabinets and Behavior of Supporting Trusses, TR-612, 2013

Large Dynamic Message Signs (DMSs) have been increasingly used on freeways, expressways and major arterials to better manage the traffic flow by providing accurate and timely information to drivers. Overhead truss structures are typically employed to support those DMSs allowing them to provide wider display to more lanes. In recent years, there is increasing evidence that the truss structures supporting these large and heavy signs are subjected to much more complex loadings than are typically accounted for in the codified design procedures. Consequently, some of these structures have required frequent inspections, retrofitting, and even premature replacement. Two manufacturing processes are primarily utilized on truss structures - welding and bolting. Recently, cracks at welding toes were reported for the structures employed in some states. Extremely large loads (e.g., due to high winds) could cause brittle fractures, and cyclic vibration (e.g., due to diurnal variation in temperature or due to oscillations in the wind force induced by vortex shedding behind the DMS) may lead to fatigue damage, as these are two major failures for the metallic material. Wind and strain resulting from temperature changes are the main loads that affect the structures during their lifetime. The American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Specification defines the limit loads in dead load, wind load, ice load, and fatigue design for natural wind gust and truck-induced gust. The objectives of this study are to investigate wind and thermal effects in the bridge type overhead DMS truss structures and improve the current design specifications (e.g., for thermal design). In order to accomplish the objective, it is necessary to study structural behavior and detailed strain-stress of the truss structures caused by wind load on the DMS cabinet and thermal load on the truss supporting the DMS cabinet. The study is divided into two parts. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) component and part of the structural analysis component of the study were conducted at the University of Iowa while the field study and related structural analysis computations were conducted at the Iowa State University. The CFD simulations were used to determine the air-induced forces (wind loads) on the DMS cabinets and the finite element analysis was used to determine the response of the supporting trusses to these pressure forces. The field observation portion consisted of short-term monitoring of several DMS Cabinet/Trusses and long-term monitoring of one DMS Cabinet/Truss. The short-term monitoring was a single (or two) day event in which several message sign panel/trusses were tested. The long-term monitoring field study extended over several months. Analysis of the data focused on trying to identify important behaviors under both ambient and truck induced winds and the effect of daily temperature changes. Results of the CFD investigation, field experiments and structural analysis of the wind induced forces on the DMS cabinets and their effect on the supporting trusses showed that the passage of trucks cannot be responsible for the problems observed to develop at trusses supporting DMS cabinets. Rather the data pointed toward the important effect of the thermal load induced by cyclic (diurnal) variations of the temperature. Thermal influence is not discussed in the specification, either in limit load or fatigue design. Although the frequency of the thermal load is low, results showed that when temperature range is large the restress range would be significant to the structure, especially near welding areas where stress concentrations may occur. Moreover stress amplitude and range are the primary parameters for brittle fracture and fatigue life estimation. Long-term field monitoring of one of the overhead truss structures in Iowa was used as the research baseline to estimate the effects of diurnal temperature changes to fatigue damage. The evaluation of the collected data is an important approach for understanding the structural behavior and for the advancement of future code provisions. Finite element modeling was developed to estimate the strain and stress magnitudes, which were compared with the field monitoring data. Fatigue life of the truss structures was also estimated based on AASHTO specifications and the numerical modeling. The main conclusion of the study is that thermal induced fatigue damage of the truss structures supporting DMS cabinets is likely a significant contributing cause for the cracks observed to develop at such structures. Other probable causes for fatigue damage not investigated in this study are the cyclic oscillations of the total wind load associated with the vortex shedding behind the DMS cabinet at high wind conditions and fabrication tolerances and induced stresses due to fitting of tube to tube connections.

How many facets are needed to represent the surface energy balance of an urban area?

We investigate the question of how many facets are needed to represent the energy balance of an urban area by developing simplified 3-, 2- and 1-facet versions of a 4-facet energy balance model of two-dimensional streets and buildings. The 3-facet model simplifies the 4-facet model by averaging over the canyon orientation, which results in similar net shortwave and longwave balances for both wall facets, but maintains the asymmetry in the heat fluxes within the street canyon. For the 2-facet model, on the assumption that the wall and road temperatures are equal, the road and wall facets can be combined mathematically into a single street-canyon facet with effective values of the heat transfer coefficient, albedo, emissivity and thermodynamic properties, without further approximation. The 1-facet model requires the additional assumption that the roof temperature is also equal to the road and wall temperatures. Idealised simulations show that the geometry and material properties of the walls and road lead to a large heat capacity of the combined street canyon, whereas the roof behaves like a flat surface with low heat capacity. This means that the magnitude of the diurnal temperature variation of the street-canyon facets are broadly similar and much smaller than the diurnal temperature variation of the roof facets. Consequently, the approximation that the street-canyon facets have similar temperatures is sound, and the road and walls can be combined into a single facet. The roof behaves very differently and a separate roof facet is required. Consequently, the 2-facet model performs similarly to the 4-facet model, while the 1-facet model does not. The models are compared with previously published observations collected in Mexico City. Although the 3- and 2-facet models perform better than the 1-facet model, the present models are unable to represent the phase of the sensible heat flux. This result is consistent with previous model comparisons, and we argue that this feature of the data cannot be produced by a single column model. We conclude that a 2-facet model is necessary, and for numerical weather prediction sufficient, to model an urban surface, and that this conclusion is robust and therefore applicable to more general geometries.

Evidence of trends in daily climate extremes over southern and west Africa

[ 1] There has been a paucity of information on trends in daily climate and climate extremes, especially from developing countries. We report the results of the analysis of daily temperature ( maximum and minimum) and precipitation data from 14 south and west African countries over the period 1961 - 2000. Data were subject to quality control and processing into indices of climate extremes for release to the global community. Temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming over most of the regions analyzed, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends for all temperature indices. Over 1961 to 2000, the regionally averaged occurrence of extreme cold ( fifth percentile) days and nights has decreased by - 3.7 and - 6.0 days/decade, respectively. Over the same period, the occurrence of extreme hot (95th percentile) days and nights has increased by 8.2 and 8.6 days/decade, respectively. The average duration of warm ( cold) has increased ( decreased) by 2.4 (0.5) days/decade and warm spells. Overall, it appears that the hot tails of the distributions of daily maximum temperature have changed more than the cold tails; for minimum temperatures, hot tails show greater changes in the NW of the region, while cold tails have changed more in the SE and east. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) does not exhibit a consistent trend across the region, with many neighboring stations showing opposite trends. However, the DTR shows consistent increases in a zone across Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, and Mozambique, coinciding with more rapid increases in maximum temperature than minimum temperature extremes. Most precipitation indices do not exhibit consistent or statistically significant trends across the region. Regionally averaged total precipitation has decreased but is not statistically significant. At the same time, there has been a statistically significant increase in regionally averaged daily rainfall intensity and dry spell duration. While the majority of stations also show increasing trends for these two indices, only a few of these are statistically significant. There are increasing trends in regionally averaged rainfall on extreme precipitation days and in maximum annual 5-day and 1-day rainfall, but only trends for the latter are statistically significant.

Causal relationships vs. emergent patterns in the global controls of fire frequency

Global controls on month-by-month fractional burnt area (2000–2005) were investigated by fitting a generalised linear model (GLM) to Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) data, with 11 predictor variables representing vegetation, climate, land use and potential ignition sources. Burnt area is shown to increase with annual net primary production (NPP), number of dry days, maximum temperature, grazing-land area, grass/shrub cover and diurnal temperature range, and to decrease with soil moisture, cropland area and population density. Lightning showed an apparent (weak) negative influence, but this disappeared when pure seasonal-cycle effects were taken into account. The model predicts observed geographic and seasonal patterns, as well as the emergent relationships seen when burnt area is plotted against each variable separately. Unimodal relationships with mean annual temperature and precipitation, population density and gross domestic product (GDP) are reproduced too, and are thus shown to be secondary consequences of correlations between different controls (e.g. high NPP with high precipitation; low NPP with low population density and GDP). These findings have major implications for the design of global fire models, as several assumptions in current models – most notably, the widely assumed dependence of fire frequency on ignition rates – are evidently incorrect.

Influence of Dietary Lysine Levels and Arginine:Lysine Ratios on Performance of Broilers Exposed to Heat or Cold Stress during the Period of Three to Six Weeks of Age

Four trials of identical experimental design were conducted to determine the effects of temperature, dietary Lys level, and dietary Arg:Lys ratios on performance and carcass yield of male broilers. Birds of a commercial strain were grown from 21 to 42 d of age in wire-floored finishing batteries placed in environmental chambers. The chambers were programmed to provide either a constant thermoneutral temperature (21.1 C), a constant cold temperature (15.5 C), or a cycling hot diurnal temperature (25.5 to 33.3 C). Within each environment there was a factorial arrangement of three Lys levels (1.0, 1.1, and 1.2%) with four Arg:Lys ratios (1.1:1, 1.2:1, 1.3:1, and 1.4:1). Environmental temperature significantly influenced virtually every characteristic examined. Hot cyclic temperatures reduced weight gain, feed intake, and breast meat yield, and increased feed conversion, dressing percentage, leg quarter yield, and abdominal fat content. The cold environment promoted increased feed intake and mortality. Ascites and cardiomyopathy were the leading causes of death under cold exposure and thermoneutral conditions, whereas complications arising from heat exposure were the main cause of death under hot cyclic conditions. Levels of Lys affected leg quarter yield and abdominal fat content over all environments but increased breast meat yield only under cold conditions. Increasing Arg: Lys ratios improved feed conversion and dressing percentage and reduced abdominal fat content; it could not be determined whether these responses were consistent with Arg per se or were due to a nonspecific N response. As increasing Lys levels or Arg:Lys ratios did not improve weight gain, increase breast meat yield, or attenuate adverse effects due to heat or cold exposure, it is concluded that the levels of Lys and Arg suggested for 21 to 42 d by the NRC are adequate for birds of this age under the environmental conditions encountered.

Climate estimates for Eastern Amazon with OLAM model

O modelo OLAM tem como característica a vantagem de representar simultaneamente os fenômenos de escala global e regional através de um esquema de refinamento de grades. Durante o projeto REMAM o modelo foi aplicado para alguns estudos de caso com objetivo de avaliar o desempenho do modelo na estimativa do clima da região leste da Amazônia em períodos de El Niño e La Niña. Estudos de caso foram feitos para os períodos chuvosos dos anos 2010 e 2011que apresentaram condições oceânicas distintas. Inicialmente, os resultados do modelo foram comparados com dados observados da região de estudo. Os resultados mostraram que o modelo consegue representar bem os principais centros convectivos da região e adjacências, da evolução local do ciclo diurno de temperatura, e da dinâmica dos ventos. Posteriormente, a análise dos resultados mostrou que, se tivermos bons dados de condição inicial e boa representação da evolução das condições de temperatura da superfície do mar, o modelo consegue prever com antecedência de dois e três meses se uma estação chuvosa será mais seca ou úmida.