A nova família de distribuições odd log-logística: teoria e aplicações

Neste trabalho, foi proposta uma nova família de distribuições, a qual permite modelar dados de sobrevivência quando a função de risco tem formas unimodal e U (banheira). Ainda, foram consideradas as modificações das distribuições Weibull, Fréchet, half-normal generalizada, log-logística e lognormal. Tomando dados não-censurados e censurados, considerou-se os estimadores de máxima verossimilhança para o modelo proposto, a fim de verificar a flexibilidade da nova família. Além disso, um modelo de regressão locação-escala foi utilizado para verificar a influência de covariáveis nos tempos de sobrevida. Adicionalmente, conduziu-se uma análise de resíduos baseada nos resíduos deviance modificada. Estudos de simulação, utilizando-se de diferentes atribuições dos parâmetros, porcentagens de censura e tamanhos amostrais, foram conduzidos com o objetivo de verificar a distribuição empírica dos resíduos tipo martingale e deviance modificada. Para detectar observações influentes, foram utilizadas medidas de influência local, que são medidas de diagnóstico baseadas em pequenas perturbações nos dados ou no modelo proposto. Podem ocorrer situações em que a suposição de independência entre os tempos de falha e censura não seja válida. Assim, outro objetivo desse trabalho é considerar o mecanismo de censura informativa, baseado na verossimilhança marginal, considerando a distribuição log-odd log-logística Weibull na modelagem. Por fim, as metodologias descritas são aplicadas a conjuntos de dados reais.

The log-bimodal-skew-normal model. A geochemical application

The main objective of this paper is to study a logarithm extension of the bimodal skew normal model introduced by Elal-Olivero et al. [1]. The model can then be seen as an alternative to the log-normal model typically used for fitting positive data. We study some basic properties such as the distribution function and moments, and discuss maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. We report results of an application to a real data set related to nickel concentration in soil samples. Model fitting comparison with several alternative models indicates that the model proposed presents the best fit and so it can be quite useful in real applications for chemical data on substance concentration. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An extension of the half-normal distribution

In this paper we introduce a new distribution, namely, the slashed half-normal distribution and it can be seen as an extension of the half-normal distribution. It is shown that the resulting distribution has more kurtosis than the ordinary half-normal distribution. Moments and some properties are derived for the new distribution. Moment estimators and maximum likelihood estimators can computed using numerical procedures. Results of two real data application are reported where model fitting is implemented by using maximum likelihood estimation. The applications illustrate the better performance of the new distribution.

A distribuição F generalizada para selecionar modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Estudo Comparativo de gráaficos de probabilidade normal para Anáalise de experimentos fatoriais não replicados

Two-level factorial designs are widely used in industrial experimentation. However, many factors in such a design require a large number of runs to perform the experiment, and too many replications of the treatments may not be feasible, considering limitations of resources and of time, making it expensive. In these cases, unreplicated designs are used. But, with only one replicate, there is no internal estimate of experimental error to make judgments about the significance of the observed efects. One of the possible solutions for this problem is to use normal plots or half-normal plots of the efects. Many experimenters use the normal plot, while others prefer the half-normal plot and, often, for both cases, without justification. The controversy about the use of these two graphical techniques motivates this work, once there is no register of formal procedure or statistical test that indicates \which one is best". The choice between the two plots seems to be a subjective issue. The central objective of this master's thesis is, then, to perform an experimental comparative study of the normal plot and half-normal plot in the context of the analysis of the 2k unreplicated factorial experiments. This study involves the construction of simulated scenarios, in which the graphics performance to detect significant efects and to identify outliers is evaluated in order to verify the following questions: Can be a plot better than other? In which situations? What kind of information does a plot increase to the analysis of the experiment that might complement those provided by the other plot? What are the restrictions on the use of graphics? Herewith, this work intends to confront these two techniques; to examine them simultaneously in order to identify similarities, diferences or relationships that contribute to the construction of a theoretical reference to justify or to aid in the experimenter's decision about which of the two graphical techniques to use and the reason for this use. The simulation results show that the half-normal plot is better to assist in the judgement of the efects, while the normal plot is recommended to detect outliers in the data

Algumas distribuições de probalidade para idosos grupados e censurados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

¿Qué función representa mejor la distribución granulométrica de la roca?

Se estudia la capacidad para representar la granulometría de la roca en un amplísimo conjunto de datos granulométricos de roca volada y molida de diferentes orígenes. Se evalúan las funciones de Weibull, Grady, log-normal, log-logística, Gilvarry y sus variedades truncadas y bimodales; las distribuciones Swebrec de tres y cinco parámetros también se estudian. La distribución de Weibull es la mejor de las de dos parámetros en cuanto a coeficiente de determinación; entre las truncadas de tres parámetros, Swebrec y Weibull lideran, e igualmente lo hacen sus variedades bimodales de cinco parámetros. Las distribuciones truncadas de tres parámetros superan a sus correspondientes bimodales de cinco parámetros (excepto la Swebrec ampliada, ella misma truncada) en el ajuste de la zona gruesa y también se comportan muy bien en la zona central si bien en esta zona ya algunas bimodales son mejores. En general, las distribuciones de Weibull, Swebrec y Grady son las mejores truncadas. En los finos, las truncadas son aún aceptables aunque pueden esperarse errores altos (por ejemplo del 100 %) mientras que las mejores bimodales (Swebrec ampliada y Weibull) tienen errores máximos generalmente menores de un 30 %. En los muy finos, los errores son casi siempre grandes, si bien moderados con la Swebrec ampliada y, en menor medida, las bimodales Weibull y Grady.

Produção de energia por mini e micro hidrelétricas na rede de distribuição de água.

A geração de energia hidrelétrica enfrenta uma crescente restrição a sua expansão, diretamente relacionada a fatores ambientais e da limitação de terrenos com potencial economicamente aproveitável. A partir deste fato, é relacionada uma possível fonte de energia hidrelétrica, resultante do aproveitamento dos potenciais presentes na rede de distribuição de água das cidades, ainda sem nenhum aproveitamento. O desenvolvimento desta fonte de energia se dá com a instalação de mini e micro centrais hidrelétricas nos condutos da rede distribuidora de água. Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar o potencial de aproveitamento hidrelétrico por mini e micro hidrelétricas por meio de técnicas de modelagem e de otimização, para agilizar e facilitar o procedimento de identificação dos potenciais e a instalação na rede de abastecimento. O trabalho leva em conta as diversas peculiaridades das redes de distribuição de água e dos equipamentos eletro-hidráulicos, discorrendo sobre a possível complementariedade da geração de energia durante os picos de consumo. Discorre também sobre a contribuição para a rede de distribuição elétrica, na logística e nos custos de implantação além de discutir a tipologia das turbinas capazes de aproveitar o potencial energético. É avaliado, com o auxilio de modelos hidráulicos e de otimização, o posicionamento das centrais geradoras na rede e os possíveis benefícios, restrições e impedimentos ao seu uso, desenvolvendo uma metodologia para facilitar a tomada de decisão quanto ao aproveitamento para geração, ou não, em redes diversas. A construção deste procedimento e ferramenta são desenvolvidos a partir do estudo de caso do sistema distribuidor de água do Município de Piquete no estado de São Paulo, Brasil.

First Fruiting Intergeneric Hybrids between Citrus and Citropsis

Fruiting hybrids are reported for the first time between the genera Citrus L. and Citropsis (Engl.) Swing. & M.Kell. Conventional hybridization using the recently described species Citrus wakonai P.I.Forst. & M.W.Sm. and Citropsis gabunensis (Engl.) Swing. & M.Kell. resulted in high rates of fruit set and seed formation. Although seed were only half normal size, over 90% germinated without the need for embryo rescue techniques. Plant losses were high during the first few months but after six months, the 327 surviving hybrids were potted on. These grew vigorously on their own roots and 35 of them flowered within two years of sowing. Plants flowered continuously but all were pollen-sterile and ovaries abscised shortly after petal fall. However, at 25 months, two newly flowering hybrids began setting fruit. The development, identification, morphology, breeding efficiency, and future implications of this unique germplasm are described.

The line transect method for estimating densities of large mammals in a tropical deciduous forest: An evaluation of models and field experiments

We have evaluated techniques of estimating animal density through direct counts using line transects during 1988-92 in the tropical deciduous forests of Mudumalai Sanctuary in southern India for four species of large herbivorous mammals, namely, chital (Axis axis), sambar (Cervus unicolor), Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) and gaur (Bos gauras). Density estimates derived from the Fourier Series and the Half-Normal models consistently had the lowest coefficient of variation. These two models also generated similar mean density estimates. For the Fourier Series estimator, appropriate cut-off widths for analysing line transect data for the four species are suggested. Grouping data into various distance classes did not produce any appreciable differences in estimates of mean density or their variances, although model fit is generally better when data are placed in fewer groups. The sampling effort needed to achieve a desired precision (coefficient of variation) in the density estimate is derived. A sampling effort of 800 km of transects returned a 10% coefficient of variation on estimate for chital; for the other species a higher effort was needed to achieve this level of precision. There was no statistically significant relationship between detectability of a group and the size of the group for any species. Density estimates along roads were generally significantly different from those in the interior af the forest, indicating that road-side counts may not be appropriate for most species.

Estudo de pressão de poros a partir de dados de poços no Terciário da Bacia de Campos

O trabalho aqui apresentado teve como objetivo, avaliar o método de Eaton (1975) aplicado ao cálculo de pressão de poros das formações rochosas em subsuperfície, utilizando dados de perfis de poços no que diz respeito a porosidade, tais como, o Tempo de Transito da onda compressional, Resistividade, Densidade e Neutrão. Posteriormente foi avaliado o resultado alcançado por esta técnica e confrontado com o dado obtido pelo registro de pressão real da formação, adquirido pela ferramenta de perfilagem MDT. Distribuídos em 6 poços perfurados na porção sul da Bacia de Campos, o intervalo cronoestratigráfico estudado está compreendido no período geológico Terciário, e os registros de pressão real da formação foram adquiridos nos reservatórios turbidíticos da Formação Carapebus (Eoceno). Apesar de existir um mecanismo causador de anomalia de pressão na bacia (Desequilíbrio de Compactação Difícil migração dos fluidos ao longo do tempo geológico) devido ao forte aporte sedimentar sustentado pelo soerguimento da Serra do Mar no Eoceno, os resultados encontrados não apontaram qualquer tipo de alteração nas respostas dos perfis utilizados, onde a referência foi a assinatura do perfil sônico em um trend normal de compactação compreendido por rochas argilosas dentro do intervalo cronoestratigráfico estudado. O presente trabalho atesta que a boa calibração do trend de ompactação normal em rochas argilosas, juntamente com a similaridade entre o resultado obtido pelo cálculo da pressão de poros a partir do perfil sônico, e os valores reais registrados diretamente na formação, pela ferramenta de registro de pressões (MDT), comprovam a aplicabilidade do método de Eaton (1975) para o cálculo de geopressões a partir de um conjunto básico de perfis de poços tais como: Raios Gama, Resistividade, Velocidade Acústica, Densidade e Neutrão

Early-type stars in the Galactic halo from the Palomar-Green survey - III. Completion of a magnitude range limited sample

High-resolution (R approximate to 40 000) echelle spectroscopic observations of 13 high-latitude early-type stars are presented. These stars comprise the final part of a complete magnitude range limited sample based on low-resolution spectroscopy of targets drawn from the Palomar-Green survey. The magnitude range under consideration is 13 less than or equal to B-PG less than or equal to 14.6, corresponding to an approximate distance limit for main-sequence B-type objects of 5 less than or equal to d less than or equal to 40 kpc. Three stars are found to be apparently normal, young stars, based on their positions on the (T-eff, log g) diagram, normal abundance patterns and relatively large projected rotational velocities. A further star, PG 1209+263, was found to belong to the chemically peculiar (CP) silicon star class of objects. The remainder are evolved subluminous stars lying on post- horizontal branch (post-HB) tracks, with the exception of PG 2120+062, which appears to be in a post-asymptotic giant branch evolutionary stage. For the young stars in the sample, we have derived distance and age estimates through comparison of the atmospheric parameters with recent theoretical evolutionary models. We discuss formation scenarios by comparing times-of- flight and evolutionary time-scales. It is found that all stars could have formed in the Galactic disc and been ejected from there soon after their birth, with the exception of PG 1209+263. The adopted proper motion is found to be a crucial factor in the kinematical analysis. We also present some number densities for young B-type halo stars, which indicate that they are extremely scarce objects.

Effects of particle/matrix interface and strengthening mechanisms on the mechanical properties of metal matrix composites

A randomly distributed multi-particle model considering the effects of particle/matrix interface and strengthening mechanisms introduced by the particles has been constructed. Particle shape, distribution, volume fraction and the particles/matrix interface due to the factors including element diffusion were considered in the model. The effects of strengthening mechanisms, caused by the introduction of particles on the mechanical properties of the composites, including grain refinement strengthening, dislocation strengthening and Orowan strengthening, are incorporated. In the model, the particles are assumed to have spheroidal shape, with uniform distribution of the centre, long axis length and inclination angle. The axis ratio follows a right half-normal distribution. Using Monte Carlo method, the location and shape parameters of the spheroids are randomly selected. The particle volume fraction is calculated using the area ratio of the spheroids. Then, the effects of particle/matrix interface and strengthening mechanism on the distribution of Mises stress and equivalent strain and the flow behaviour for the composites are discussed.

Difusión de la telefonía móvil en Colombia

En este documento se analiza el proceso de difusión de la telefonía móvil en Colombia a través de los siguientes modelos de difusión: modelo logístico simple, modelo Gompertz, modelo logístico extendido, modelo logístico de respuesta no simétrica, modelo logístico local, modelo Bertalanffy, modelo Brody y Curva log-logística. Se obtiene que el proceso de difusión en Colombia se ajusta a un modelo Gompertz, el cual señala como nivel de saturación el 105% de penetración del servicio de telefonía móvil e inclusive considera el nivel de penetración del 110.5%.

Effects of phthalic acid esters on the liver and thyroid

The effects, over periods from 3 days to 9 months of administration, of diets containing di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate are very similar to those observed in rats administered diets containing hypolipidemic drugs such as clofibrate. Changes occur in a characteristic order commencing with alterations in the distribution of lipid within the liver, quickly followed by proliferation of hepatic peroxisomes and induction of the specialized P-450 isoenzyme(s) catalyzing omega oxidation of fatty acids. There follows a phase of mild liver damage indicated by induction of glucose-6-phosphatase activity and a loss of glycogen, eventually leading to the formation of enlarged lysosomes through autophagy and the accumulation of lipofuscin. Associated changes are found in the kidney and thyroid. The renal changes are limited to the proximal convoluted tubules and are generally similar to changes found in the liver. The effects on the thyroid are more marked. Although the levels of thyroxine in plasma fail to about half normal values, serum triiodothyronine remains close to normal values while the appearance of the thyroid varies, very marked hyperactivity being noted 7 days after commencement of treatment, this is less marked at 14 days, but even after 9 months treatment there is clear cut evidence for hyperactivity with colloid changes which indicate this has persisted for some time. Straight chain analogs of di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate, di-n-hexyl phthalate and di-n-oxtyl phthalate differ entirely in their short-term effects on the liver and kidney but have similar effects on the thyroid. The short-term in vivo hepatic effects of the three phthalate esters can be reproduced in hepatocytes in tissue culture. All three phthalate esters, as well as clofibrate, have early marked effects on the metabolism of fatty acids in isolated hepatocytes. The nature of these changes is such as to increase storage of lipid in the liver. A hypothesis is presented to explain the progress from these initial metabolic effects to the final formation of liver tumors.