A disease evolution model with uncertain parameters

In this study we consider the SIS epidemiological model (susceptible-infected-susceptible) in which the transmission and recuperation rates are considered fuzzy sets. The concepts of possibility measures and fuzzy expectancy value are used to obtain the basic reproduction value for infected groups with different viral charge.

Disease evolution and outcomes in familial AML with germline CEBPA mutations

In-depth molecular investigation of familial leukemia has been limited by the rarity of recognized cases. This study examines the genetic events initiating leukemia and details the clinical progression of disease across multiple families harboring germ-line CEBPA mutations. Clinical data were collected from 10 CEBPA-mutated families, representing 24 members with acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Whole-exome (WES) and deep sequencing were performed to genetically profile tumors and define patterns of clonal evolution. Germline CEBPA mutations clustered within the N-terminal and were highly penetrant, with AML presenting at a median age of 24.5 years (range, 1.75-46 years). In all diagnostic tumors tested (n = 18), double CEBPA mutations (CEBPAdm) were detected, with acquired (somatic) mutations preferentially targeting the C-terminal. Somatic CEBPA mutations were unstable throughout the disease course, with different mutations identified at recurrence. Deep sequencing of diagnostic and relapse paired samples confirmed that relapse-associated CEBPA mutations were absent at diagnosis, suggesting recurrence was triggered by novel, independent clones. Integrated WES and deep sequencing subsequently revealed an entirely new complement of mutations at relapse, verifying the presentation of a de novo leukemic episode. The cumulative incidence of relapse in familial AML was 56% at 10 years (n = 11), and 3 patients experienced ≥3 disease episodes over a period of 17 to 20 years. Durable responses to secondary therapies were observed, with prolonged median survival after relapse (8 years) and long-term overall survival (10-year overall survival, 67%). Our data reveal that familial CEBPA-mutated AML exhibits a unique model of disease progression, associated with favorable long-term outcomes.

Validation of and comparison between a semidistributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (PREVAH) and a spatially distributed snow-evolution model (SnowModel) for snow cover prediction in mountain ecosystems

Snow cover is an important control in mountain environments and a shift of the snow-free period triggered by climate warming can strongly impact ecosystem dynamics. Changing snow patterns can have severe effects on alpine plant distribution and diversity. It thus becomes urgent to provide spatially explicit assessments of snow cover changes that can be incorporated into correlative or empirical species distribution models (SDMs). Here, we provide for the first time a with a lower overestimation comparison of two physically based snow distribution models (PREVAH and SnowModel) to produce snow cover maps (SCMs) at a fine spatial resolution in a mountain landscape in Austria. SCMs have been evaluated with SPOT-HRVIR images and predictions of snow water equivalent from the two models with ground measurements. Finally, SCMs of the two models have been compared under a climate warming scenario for the end of the century. The predictive performances of PREVAH and SnowModel were similar when validated with the SPOT images. However, the tendency to overestimate snow cover was slightly lower with SnowModel during the accumulation period, whereas it was lower with PREVAH during the melting period. The rate of true positives during the melting period was two times higher on average with SnowModel with a lower overestimation of snow water equivalent. Our results allow for recommending the use of SnowModel in SDMs because it better captures persisting snow patches at the end of the snow season, which is important when modelling the response of species to long-lasting snow cover and evaluating whether they might survive under climate change.

Multitemporal analysis of satellite imagery: implementation of a land evolution model in ALCS (ATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM)

In this report it was designed an innovative satellite-based monitoring approach applied on the Iraqi Marshlands to survey the extent and distribution of marshland re-flooding and assess the development of wetland vegetation cover. The study, conducted in collaboration with MEEO Srl , makes use of images collected from the sensor (A)ATSR onboard ESA ENVISAT Satellite to collect data at multi-temporal scales and an analysis was adopted to observe the evolution of marshland re-flooding. The methodology uses a multi-temporal pixel-based approach based on classification maps produced by the classification tool SOIL MAPPER ®. The catalogue of the classification maps is available as web service through the Service Support Environment Portal (SSE, supported by ESA). The inundation of the Iraqi marshlands, which has been continuous since April 2003, is characterized by a high degree of variability, ad-hoc interventions and uncertainty. Given the security constraints and vastness of the Iraqi marshlands, as well as cost-effectiveness considerations, satellite remote sensing was the only viable tool to observe the changes taking place on a continuous basis. The proposed system (ALCS – AATSR LAND CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM) avoids the direct use of the (A)ATSR images and foresees the application of LULCC evolution models directly to „stock‟ of classified maps. This approach is made possible by the availability of a 13 year classified image database, conceived and implemented in the CARD project (http://earth.esa.int/rtd/Projects/#CARD).The approach here presented evolves toward an innovative, efficient and fast method to exploit the potentiality of multi-temporal LULCC analysis of (A)ATSR images. The two main objectives of this work are both linked to a sort of assessment: the first is to assessing the ability of modeling with the web-application ALCS using image-based AATSR classified with SOIL MAPPER ® and the second is to evaluate the magnitude, the character and the extension of wetland rehabilitation.

Classification of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer Disease Using Model-Based MR and Magnetization Transfer Imaging

Early stratification of degenerative processes is a prerequisite to warrant therapeutic options in prodromal Alzheimer disease. Our aim was to investigate differences in cerebral macromolecular tissue composition between patients with AD, mild cognitive impairment, and age- and sex-matched healthy controls by using model-based magnetization transfer with a binary spin-bath magnetization transfer model and magnetization transfer ratio at 1.5 T.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

Evaluation of the transcriptomic response of an Alzheimer's disease murine model induced at different ages: searching for predictors

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a chronic, progressive neurodegenerative disease, characterized by the impairment of mnesic and cognitive functions, that represents the most frequent type of dementia in older people worldwide. Aging is the most important risk factor for the sporadic form of the pathology and it is associated to the progressive impairment of the proteostasis network. The endoplasmic reticulum (ER), the main cellular actor involved in proteostasis, appears significantly compromised in AD due to the accumulation of β-amyloid (Aβ) protein and phosphorylated-tau protein. Increasing proteins misfolding activates a specific cellular response known as Unfolded Protein response (UPR) which orchestrates the recovery of ER function. The aim of the present study was to investigate the role of UPR and aging process in a murine model of AD induced by intracerebroventricular (i.c.v.) injection of Aβ1-42 oligomers at 3 or 18 months. The oligomers injection in aged animals caused the increased of memory impairment, oxidative stress, and the depletion of glutathione reserve. Furthermore, the RNA-sequencing analysis was performed and the bioinformatic analysis showed the enrichment of several pathways involved in neurodegeneration and protein regulations. The following analysis highlighted the significant dysregulation of the three branches of the UPR, the protein kinase RNA-like ER kinase (PERK), inositol-requiring protein 1α (IRE1α) and activating transcription factor 6 (ATF-6). In turn, ER stress affected the PI3K/Akt/Gsk3β and MAPK/ERK pathways, highlighting Mapkapk5 as a potential marker of the neurodegenerative process, which regulation could lead to the definition of new pharmacological and neuroprotective strategies to counteract AD.

An impulsive differential equation model for Marek's disease

Many dynamical processes are subject to abrupt changes in state. Often these perturbations can be periodic and of short duration relative to the evolving process. These types of phenomena are described well by what are referred to as impulsive differential equations, systems of differential equations coupled with discrete mappings in state space. In this thesis we employ impulsive differential equations to model disease transmission within an industrial livestock barn. In particular we focus on the poultry industry and a viral disease of poultry called Marek's disease. This system lends itself well to impulsive differential equations. Entire cohorts of poultry are introduced and removed from a barn concurrently. Additionally, Marek's disease is transmitted indirectly and the viral particles can survive outside the host for weeks. Therefore, depopulating, cleaning, and restocking of the barn are integral factors in modelling disease transmission and can be completely captured by the impulsive component of the model. Our model allows us to investigate how modern broiler farm practices can make disease elimination difficult or impossible to achieve. It also enables us to investigate factors that may contribute to virulence evolution. Our model suggests that by decrease the cohort duration or by decreasing the flock density, Marek's disease can be eliminated from a barn with no increase in cleaning effort. Unfortunately our model also suggests that these practices will lead to disease evolution towards greater virulence. Additionally, our model suggests that if intensive cleaning between cohorts does not rid the barn of disease, it may drive evolution and cause the disease to become more virulent.

The hamster (mesocricetus auratus) as experimental model in chagas' disease: parasitological and histopathological studies in acute and chronic phases of Trypanosoma cruzi infection

This research characterizes the acute and chronic phases of Chagas ' disease in hamster through parasitological and histopathological studies. The acute phase was achieved with 44 young hamsters injected intraperitoneally with 100.000 blood trypomastigotes of Benedito and Y strains of T. cruzi. The chronic phase was induced in 46 hamsters injected intraperitoneally with 35.000 trypomastigotes ofVicentina, Benedito and Y strains. Animals were sacrificed at regular intervals of 24 hours of acute phase and from the 3rd to the 10th month of infection ofchronic phase. In the acute phase, parasites were easily recoveredfrom all animals and there was an inflammatory reaction characterized by mononuclear and polymorphous leukocyte infiltration of variable degree in the majority of tissues and organs, specially in the connective loose and fatty tissues, smooth muscle myocardium and skeletal muscle. In the chronic phase the lesions occurred in the same tissues and organs, but the inflammatory response was less severe and characterized by mononuclear infiltration mainly with focal or zonalfibrosis in the myocardiun. In 50% of infected animals parasites were found inmyocardiun and recoveredfrom pericardic, peritoneal and ascitic fluids in some animals. Signs of heart failure, sudden death and enlargement of bowel were observed regularly. We concluded that the hamster is an useful model for Chagas' disease studies.

Experimental Model of Gene Transfection in Healthy Canine Myocardium: Perspectives of Gene Therapy for Ischemic Heart Disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess the transfection of the gene that encodes green fluorescent protein (GFP) through direct intramyocardial injection. METHODS: The pREGFP plasmid vector was used. The EGFP gene was inserted downstream from the constitutive promoter of the Rous sarcoma virus. Five male dogs were used (mean weight 13.5 kg), in which 0.5 mL of saline solution (n=1) or 0.5 mL of plasmid solution containing 0.5 µg of pREGFP/dog (n=4) were injected into the myocardium of the left ventricular lateral wall. The dogs were euthanized 1 week later, and cardiac biopsies were obtained. RESULTS: Fluorescence microscopy showed differences between the cells transfected and not transfected with pREGFP plasmid. Mild fluorescence was observed in the cardiac fibers that received saline solution; however, the myocardial cells transfected with pREGFP had overt EGFP expression. CONCLUSION: Transfection with the EGFP gene in healthy canine myocardium was effective. The reproduction of this efficacy using vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) instead of EGFP aims at developing gene therapy for ischemic heart disease.