A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models

As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions. © 2011 Brazilian Operations Research Society.

Simulation of stromatolite growth using diffusion-limited aggregation and a discrete model of biogeochemical exchanges in microbial mat

Resume : Mieux comprendre les stromatolithes et les tapis microbiens est un sujet important en biogéosciences puisque cela aide à l'étude des premières formes de vie sur Terre, a mieux cerner l'écologie des communautés microbiennes et la contribution des microorganismes a la biominéralisation, et même à poser certains fondements dans les recherches en exobiologie. D'autre part, la modélisation est un outil puissant utilisé dans les sciences naturelles pour appréhender différents phénomènes de façon théorique. Les modèles sont généralement construits sur un système d'équations différentielles et les résultats sont obtenus en résolvant ce système. Les logiciels disponibles pour implémenter les modèles incluent les logiciels mathématiques et les logiciels généraux de simulation. L'objectif principal de cette thèse est de développer des modèles et des logiciels pour aider a comprendre, via la simulation, le fonctionnement des stromatolithes et des tapis microbiens. Ces logiciels ont été développés en C++ en ne partant d'aucun pré-requis de façon a privilégier performance et flexibilité maximales. Cette démarche permet de construire des modèles bien plus spécifiques et plus appropriés aux phénomènes a modéliser. Premièrement, nous avons étudié la croissance et la morphologie des stromatolithes. Nous avons construit un modèle tridimensionnel fondé sur l'agrégation par diffusion limitée. Le modèle a été implémenté en deux applications C++: un moteur de simulation capable d'exécuter un batch de simulations et de produire des fichiers de résultats, et un outil de visualisation qui permet d'analyser les résultats en trois dimensions. Après avoir vérifié que ce modèle peut en effet reproduire la croissance et la morphologie de plusieurs types de stromatolithes, nous avons introduit un processus de sédimentation comme facteur externe. Ceci nous a mené a des résultats intéressants, et permis de soutenir l'hypothèse que la morphologie des stromatolithes pourrait être le résultat de facteurs externes autant que de facteurs internes. Ceci est important car la classification des stromatolithes est généralement fondée sur leur morphologie, imposant que la forme d'un stromatolithe est dépendante de facteurs internes uniquement (c'est-à-dire les tapis microbiens). Les résultats avancés dans ce mémoire contredisent donc ces assertions communément admises. Ensuite, nous avons décidé de mener des recherches plus en profondeur sur les aspects fonctionnels des tapis microbiens. Nous avons construit un modèle bidimensionnel de réaction-diffusion fondé sur la simulation discrète. Ce modèle a été implémenté dans une application C++ qui permet de paramétrer et exécuter des simulations. Nous avons ensuite pu comparer les résultats de simulation avec des données du monde réel et vérifier que le modèle peut en effet imiter le comportement de certains tapis microbiens. Ainsi, nous avons pu émettre et vérifier des hypothèses sur le fonctionnement de certains tapis microbiens pour nous aider à mieux en comprendre certains aspects, comme la dynamique des éléments, en particulier le soufre et l'oxygène. En conclusion, ce travail a abouti à l'écriture de logiciels dédiés à la simulation de tapis microbiens d'un point de vue tant morphologique que fonctionnel, suivant deux approches différentes, l'une holistique, l'autre plus analytique. Ces logiciels sont gratuits et diffusés sous licence GPL (General Public License). Abstract : Better understanding of stromatolites and microbial mats is an important topic in biogeosciences as it helps studying the early forms of life on Earth, provides clues re- garding the ecology of microbial ecosystems and their contribution to biomineralization, and gives basis to a new science, exobiology. On the other hand, modelling is a powerful tool used in natural sciences for the theoretical approach of various phenomena. Models are usually built on a system of differential equations and results are obtained by solving that system. Available software to implement models includes mathematical solvers and general simulation software. The main objective of this thesis is to develop models and software able to help to understand the functioning of stromatolites and microbial mats. Software was developed in C++ from scratch for maximum performance and flexibility. This allows to build models much more specific to a phenomenon rather than general software. First, we studied stromatolite growth and morphology. We built a three-dimensional model based on diffusion-limited aggregation. The model was implemented in two C++ applications: a simulator engine, which can run a batch of simulations and produce result files, and a Visualization tool, which allows results to be analysed in three dimensions. After verifying that our model can indeed reproduce the growth and morphology of several types of stromatolites, we introduced a sedimentation process as an external factor. This lead to interesting results, and allowed to emit the hypothesis that stromatolite morphology may be the result of external factors as much as internal factors. This is important as stromatolite classification is usually based on their morphology, imposing that a stromatolite shape is dependant on internal factors only (i.e. the microbial mat). This statement is contradicted by our findings, Second, we decided to investigate deeper the functioning of microbial mats, We built a two-dimensional reaction-diffusion model based on discrete simulation, The model was implemented in a C++ application that allows setting and running simulations. We could then compare simulation results with real world data and verify that our model can indeed mimic the behaviour of some microbial mats. Thus, we have proposed and verified hypotheses regarding microbial mats functioning in order to help to better understand them, e.g. the cycle of some elements such as oxygen or sulfur. ln conclusion, this PhD provides a simulation software, dealing with two different approaches. This software is free and available under a GPL licence.

Selection of simulation tools for improving supply chain performance

Simulation is an effective method for improving supply chain performance. However, there is limited advice available to assist practitioners in selecting the most appropriate method for a given problem. Much of the advice that does exist relies on custom and practice rather than a rigorous conceptual or empirical analysis. An analysis of the different modelling techniques applied in the supply chain domain was conducted, and the three main approaches to simulation used were identified; these are System Dynamics (SD), Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and Agent Based Modelling (ABM). This research has examined these approaches in two stages. Firstly, a first principles analysis was carried out in order to challenge the received wisdom about their strengths and weaknesses and a series of propositions were developed from this initial analysis. The second stage was to use the case study approach to test these propositions and to provide further empirical evidence to support their comparison. The contributions of this research are both in terms of knowledge and practice. In terms of knowledge, this research is the first holistic cross paradigm comparison of the three main approaches in the supply chain domain. Case studies have involved building ‘back to back’ models of the same supply chain problem using SD and a discrete approach (either DES or ABM). This has led to contributions concerning the limitations of applying SD to operational problem types. SD has also been found to have risks when applied to strategic and policy problems. Discrete methods have been found to have potential for exploring strategic problem types. It has been found that discrete simulation methods can model material and information feedback successfully. Further insights have been gained into the relationship between modelling purpose and modelling approach. In terms of practice, the findings have been summarised in the form of a framework linking modelling purpose, problem characteristics and simulation approach.

Modeling of Distributed Control Systems in Intelligent Building based on Colored Petri Nets

Distributed control systems consist of sensors, actuators and controllers, interconnected by communication networks and are characterized by a high number of concurrent process. This work presents a proposal for a procedure to model and analyze communication networks for distributed control systems in intelligent building. The approach considered for this purpose is based on the characterization of the control system as a discrete event system and application of coloured Petri net as a formal method for specification, analysis and verification of control solutions. With this approach, we develop the models that compose the communication networks for the control systems of intelligent building, which are considered the relationships between the various buildings systems. This procedure provides a structured development of models, facilitating the process of specifying the control algorithm. An application example is presented in order to illustrate the main features of this approach.

Validação de design de armazém automatizado com uso de simulação discreta

Dissertação de mestrado em Engenharia de Sistemas

Individual-based modelling of bacterial cultures to study the lag ohase

Els bacteris són la forma dominant de vida del planeta: poden sobreviure en medis molt adversos, i en alguns casos poden generar substàncies que quan les ingerim ens són tòxiques. La seva presència en els aliments fa que la microbiologia predictiva sigui un camp imprescindible en la microbiologia dels aliments per garantir la seguretat alimentària. Un cultiu bacterià pot passar per quatre fases de creixement: latència, exponencial, estacionària i de mort. En aquest treball s’ha avançat en la comprensió dels fenòmens intrínsecs a la fase de latència, que és de gran interès en l’àmbit de la microbiologia predictiva. Aquest estudi, realitzat al llarg de quatre anys, s’ha abordat des de la metodologia Individual-based Modelling (IbM) amb el simulador INDISIM (INDividual DIScrete SIMulation), que ha estat millorat per poder fer-ho. INDISIM ha permès estudiar dues causes de la fase de latència de forma separada, i abordar l’estudi del comportament del cultiu des d’una perspectiva mesoscòpica. S’ha vist que la fase de latència ha de ser estudiada com un procés dinàmic, i no definida per un paràmetre. L’estudi de l’evolució de variables com la distribució de propietats individuals entre la població (per exemple, la distribució de masses) o la velocitat de creixement, han permès distingir dues etapes en la fase de latència, inicial i de transició, i aprofundir en la comprensió del que passa a nivell cel•lular. S’han observat experimentalment amb citometria de flux diversos resultats previstos per les simulacions. La coincidència entre simulacions i experiments no és trivial ni casual: el sistema estudiat és un sistema complex, i per tant la coincidència del comportament al llarg del temps de diversos paràmetres interrelacionats és un aval a la metodologia emprada en les simulacions. Es pot afirmar, doncs, que s’ha verificat experimentalment la bondat de la metodologia INDISIM.

Análise de handover a partir do uso de femtocells em redes LTE: abordagem baseada em simulação discreta

O volume de tráfego de dados em redes celulares está crescendo exponencialmente. A explosão do uso de dispositivos e aplicações móveis nos últimos anos, tem levado a uma sobrecarga da infraestrutura da rede responsável pelo escoamento desse tráfego, afetando tanto o desempenho da rede quanto a experiência do usuário. Um dos elementos-chave nas redes LTE (Long Term Evolution) é a possibilidade de implantação de múltiplas femtocells para a melhoria de cobertura e taxa de dados. No entanto, as sobreposições arbitrárias na cobertura dessas células tornam a gestão do mecanismo de handover complexo e desafiador. Nesse sentido, esta dissertação propõe uma metodologia para o estudo do impacto do handover em redes LTE com femtocells. A partir de uma abordagem de simulação discreta, os efeitos da implantação de femtocells foram avaliados. Objetivou-se com isso, mensurar os impactos e a correlação do uso de femtocell nos parâmetros de QoS (Quality of Service) e indicadores de desempenho de handover.

Green markov - uma abordagem híbrida de política markoviana e simulação discreta para planejamento de alocação de usuários em redes macro-femto

O uso da comunicação de voz e dados através de dispositivos móveis vem aumentando significativamente nos últimos anos. Tal expansão traz algumas dificuldades inerentes, tais como: ampliação constante de capacidade das redes e eficiência energética. Neste contexto, vem se consolidando o conceito de Green networks, que se concentra no esforço para economia de energia e redução de CO2. Neste sentido, este trabalho propõe validar um modelo de uma política baseado em processo markoviano de decisão, visando a otimizar o consumo de energia, QoS e QoE, na alocação de usuários em redes macrocell e femtocell. Para isso o modelo foi inserido no simulador NS-2, aliando a solução analítica markoviana à flexibilidade característica da simulação discreta. A partir dos resultados apresentados na simulação, a política obteve uma economia significativa no consumo energético, melhorando a eficiência energética em até 4%, além de melhorar a qualidade de serviço em relação às redes macrocell e femtocell, demonstrando-se eficaz, de modo a alterar diretamente as métricas de QoS e de QoE.

Step size control for efficient discrete element simulation

The step size determines the accuracy of a discrete element simulation. The position and velocity updating calculation uses a pre-calculated table and hence the control of step size can not use the integration formulas for step size control. A step size control scheme for use with the table driven velocity and position calculation uses the difference between the calculation result from one big step and that from two small steps. This variable time step size method chooses the suitable time step size for each particle at each step automatically according to the conditions. Simulation using fixed time step method is compared with that of using variable time step method. The difference in computation time for the same accuracy using a variable step size (compared to the fixed step) depends on the particular problem. For a simple test case the times are roughly similar. However, the variable step size gives the required accuracy on the first run. A fixed step size may require several runs to check the simulation accuracy or a conservative step size that results in longer run times. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Experimental and discrete element simulation studies of bell-less charging of blast furnace

This thesis presents an experimental study and numerical study, based on the discrete element method (DEM), of bell-less charging in the blast furnace. The numerical models are based on the microscopic interaction between the particles in the blast furnace charging process. The emphasis is put on model validation, investigating several phenomena in the charging process, and on finding factors that influence the results. The study considers and simulates size segregation in the hopper discharging process, particle flow and behavior on the chute, which is the key equipment in the charging system, using mono-size spherical particles, multi-size spheres and nonspherical particles. The behavior of the particles at the burden surface and pellet percolation into a coke layer is also studied. Small-scale experiments are used to validate the DEM models.

Discrete demand side control performance under dynamic building simulation: a heat pump application

This study presents the findings of applying a Discrete Demand Side Control (DDSC) approach to the space heating of two case study buildings. High and low tolerance scenarios are implemented on the space heating controller to assess the impact of DDSC upon buildings with different thermal capacitances, light-weight and heavy-weight construction. Space heating is provided by an electric heat pump powered from a wind turbine, with a back-up electrical network connection in the event of insufficient wind being available when a demand occurs. Findings highlight that thermal comfort is maintained within an acceptable range while the DDSC controller maintains the demand/supply balance. Whilst it is noted that energy demand increases slightly, as this is mostly supplied from the wind turbine, this is of little significance and hence a reduction in operating costs and carbon emissions is still attained.

Improving a process in a brazilian automotive plant applying process mapping, Design of Experiments and Discrete Events Simulation

The objective of this article is to apply the Design of Experiments technique along with the Discrete Events Simulation technique in an automotive process. The benefits of the design of experiments in simulation include the possibility to improve the performance in the simulation process, avoiding trial and error to seek solutions. The methodology of the conjoint use of Design of Experiments and Computer Simulation is presented to assess the effects of the variables and its interactions involved in the process. In this paper, the efficacy of the use of process mapping and design of experiments on the phases of conception and analysis are confirmed.

A Framework for the Automation of Discrete-Event Simulation Experiments

Simulation is an important resource for researchers in diverse fields. However, many researchers have found flaws in the methodology of published simulation studies and have described the state of the simulation community as being in a crisis of credibility. This work describes the project of the Simulation Automation Framework for Experiments (SAFE), which addresses the issues that undermine credibility by automating the workflow in the execution of simulation studies. Automation reduces the number of opportunities for users to introduce error in the scientific process thereby improvingthe credibility of the final results. Automation also eases the job of simulation users and allows them to focus on the design of models and the analysis of results rather than on the complexities of the workflow.

Modelling a biomass supply chain through discrete-event simulation

The organizational structure of the companies in the biomass energy sector, regarding the supply chain management services, can be greatly improved through the use of software decision support tools. These tools should be able to provide real-time alternative scenarios when deviations from the initial production plans are observed. To make this possible it is necessary to have representative production chain process models where several scenarios and solutions can be evaluated accurately. Due to its nature, this type of process is more adequately represented by means of event-based models. In particular, this work presents the modelling of a typical biomass production chain using the computing platform SIMEVENTS. Throughout the article details about the conceptual model, as well as simulation results, are provided