Improving a process in a brazilian automotive plant applying process mapping, Design of Experiments and Discrete Events Simulation

The objective of this article is to apply the Design of Experiments technique along with the Discrete Events Simulation technique in an automotive process. The benefits of the design of experiments in simulation include the possibility to improve the performance in the simulation process, avoiding trial and error to seek solutions. The methodology of the conjoint use of Design of Experiments and Computer Simulation is presented to assess the effects of the variables and its interactions involved in the process. In this paper, the efficacy of the use of process mapping and design of experiments on the phases of conception and analysis are confirmed.

Logic-Based Outer Approximation for the Design of Discrete-Continuous Dynamic Systems with Implicit Discontinuities

We address the optimization of discrete-continuous dynamic optimization problems using a disjunctive multistage modeling framework, with implicit discontinuities, which increases the problem complexity since the number of continuous phases and discrete events is not known a-priori. After setting a fixed alternative sequence of modes, we convert the infinite-dimensional continuous mixed-logic dynamic (MLDO) problem into a finite dimensional discretized GDP problem by orthogonal collocation on finite elements. We use the Logic-based Outer Approximation algorithm to fully exploit the structure of the GDP representation of the problem. This modelling framework is illustrated with an optimization problem with implicit discontinuities (diver problem).

Simulated systems optimization through response surface techniques [Optimización de sistemas simulados a través de técnicas de superficie de respuesta]

The purpose of this article is to show the applicability and benefits of the techniques of design of experiments as an optimization tool for discrete simulation models. The simulated systems are computational representations of real-life systems; its characteristics include a constant evolution that follows the occurrence of discrete events along the time. In this study, a production system, designed with the business philosophy JIT (Just in Time) is used, which seeks to achieve excellence in organizations through waste reduction in all the operational aspects. The most typical tool of JIT systems is the KANBAN production control that seeks to synchronize demand with flow of materials, minimize work in process, and define production metrics. Using experimental design techniques for stochastic optimization, the impact of the operational factors on the efficiency of the KANBAN / CONWIP simulation model is analyzed. The results show the effectiveness of the integration of experimental design techniques and discrete simulation models in the calculation of the operational parameters. Furthermore, the reliability of the methodologies found was improved with a new statistical consideration.

An agent-based multi-scale wind generation model

(EuroPES 2009)

X-ray observation of micro-failures in granular piles approaching an avalanche

An X-ray imaging technique is used to probe the stability of 3-dimensional granular packs in a slowly rotating drum. Well before the surface reaches the avalanche angle, we observe intermittent plastic events associated with collective rearrangements of the grains located in the vicinity of the free surface. The energy released by these discrete events grows as the system approaches the avalanche threshold. By testing various preparation methods, we show that the pre-avalanche dynamics is not solely controlled by the difference between the free surface inclination and the avalanche angle. As a consequence, the measure of the pre-avalanche dynamics is unlikely to serve as a tool for predicting macroscopic avalanches.

A dragline-forming mobile robot inspired by spiders.

Mobility of wheeled or legged machines can be significantly increased if they are able to move from a solid surface into a three-dimensional space. Although that may be achieved by addition of flying mechanisms, the payload fraction will be the limiting factor in such hybrid mobile machines for many applications. Inspired by spiders producing draglines to assist locomotion, the paper proposes an alternative mobile technology where a robot achieves locomotion from a solid surface into a free space. The technology resembles the dragline production pathway in spiders to a technically feasible degree and enables robots to move with thermoplastic spinning of draglines. As an implementation, a mobile robot has been prototyped with thermoplastic adhesives as source material of the draglines. Experimental results show that a dragline diameter range of 1.17-5.27 mm was achievable by the 185 g mobile robot in descending locomotion from the solid surface of a hanging structure with a power consumption of 4.8 W and an average speed of 5.13 cm min(-1). With an open-loop controller consisting of sequences of discrete events, the robot has demonstrated repeatable dragline formation with a relative deviation within -4% and a length close to the metre scale.

Minimalistic models of an energy-efficient vertical-hopping robot

The use of free vibration in elastic structure can lead to energy-efficient robot locomotion, since it significantly reduces the energy expenditure if properly designed and controlled. However, it is not well understood how to harness the dynamics of free vibration for the robot locomotion, because of the complex dynamics originated in discrete events and energy dissipation during locomotion. From this perspective, the goals of this paper are to propose a design strategy of hopping robot based on elastic curved beams and actuated rotating masses and to identify the minimalistic model that can characterize the basic principle of robot locomotion. Since the robot mainly exhibits vertical hopping, three 1-D models are examined that contain different configurations of simple spring-damper-mass components. The real-world and simulation experiments show that one of the models best characterizes the robot hopping, through analyzing the basic kinematics and negative works in actuation. Based on this model, the self-stability of hopping motion under disturbances is investigated, and design and control parameters are analyzed for the energy-efficient hopping. In addition, further analyses show that this robot can achieve the energy-efficient hopping with the variation in payload, and the source of energy dissipation of the robot hopping is investigated. © 1982-2012 IEEE.

Minimalistic models of an energy efficient vertical hopping robot

The use of free vibration in elastic structure can lead to energy efficient robot locomotion, since it significantly reduces the energy expenditure if properly designed and controlled. However, it is not well understood how to harness the dynamics of free vibration for the robot locomotion, because of the complex dynamics originated in discrete events and energy dissipation during locomotion. From this perspective, this paper explores three minimalistic models of free vibration that can characterize the basic principle of robot locomotion. Since the robot mainly exhibits vertical hopping, three one-dimensional models are examined that contain different configurations of simple spring-damper-mass components. The self-stability of these models are also investigated in simulation. The real-world and simulation experiments show that one of the models best characterizes the robot hopping, through analyzing the basic kinematics and negative works in actuation. Based on this model, the control parameters are analyzed for the energy efficient hopping. © 2013 IEEE.

Ascending Out of Poverty: An analysis of family histories in Kenya

This paper looks at inheritance through minimally-structured interviews with several generations of Kenyan families, seeking to explain that the how and why of poverty can be understood in the wider family context. Five main routes for ascending out of poverty were identified: (1) the gradual accumulation of resources due to income deriving from cash crops; (2) the gradual accumulation of resources due to income from non-farm work, including remittances from family member who have moved away for work; (3) the role of education, particularly skills training opposed to academic qualification, in helping provide employment; (4) accessing financial assets through support both from extended family members and from informal support mechanisms; (5) stability and benefits accruing from long-term strategic planning, including entrepreneurial activity. Both the ascent out of and the descent into poverty can be better conceived as processes, rather than due to chains of discrete events or specific ‘shocks’.

Conception des réseaux maillés sans fil à multiples-radios multiples-canaux

Généralement, les problèmes de conception de réseaux consistent à sélectionner les arcs et les sommets d’un graphe G de sorte que la fonction coût est optimisée et l’ensemble de contraintes impliquant les liens et les sommets dans G sont respectées. Une modification dans le critère d’optimisation et/ou dans l’ensemble de contraintes mène à une nouvelle représentation d’un problème différent. Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons au problème de conception d’infrastructure de réseaux maillés sans fil (WMN- Wireless Mesh Network en Anglais) où nous montrons que la conception de tels réseaux se transforme d’un problème d’optimisation standard (la fonction coût est optimisée) à un problème d’optimisation à plusieurs objectifs, pour tenir en compte de nombreux aspects, souvent contradictoires, mais néanmoins incontournables dans la réalité. Cette thèse, composée de trois volets, propose de nouveaux modèles et algorithmes pour la conception de WMNs où rien n’est connu à l’ avance. Le premiervolet est consacré à l’optimisation simultanée de deux objectifs équitablement importants : le coût et la performance du réseau en termes de débit. Trois modèles bi-objectifs qui se différent principalement par l’approche utilisée pour maximiser la performance du réseau sont proposés, résolus et comparés. Le deuxième volet traite le problème de placement de passerelles vu son impact sur la performance et l’extensibilité du réseau. La notion de contraintes de sauts (hop constraints) est introduite dans la conception du réseau pour limiter le délai de transmission. Un nouvel algorithme basé sur une approche de groupage est proposé afin de trouver les positions stratégiques des passerelles qui favorisent l’extensibilité du réseau et augmentent sa performance sans augmenter considérablement le coût total de son installation. Le dernier volet adresse le problème de fiabilité du réseau dans la présence de pannes simples. Prévoir l’installation des composants redondants lors de la phase de conception peut garantir des communications fiables, mais au détriment du coût et de la performance du réseau. Un nouvel algorithme, basé sur l’approche théorique de décomposition en oreilles afin d’installer le minimum nombre de routeurs additionnels pour tolérer les pannes simples, est développé. Afin de résoudre les modèles proposés pour des réseaux de taille réelle, un algorithme évolutionnaire (méta-heuristique), inspiré de la nature, est développé. Finalement, les méthodes et modèles proposés on été évalués par des simulations empiriques et d’événements discrets.

Évaluation pharmacoéconomique d'un test de prédisposition génétique aux effets secondaires musculaires reliés aux statines

Introduction : Les statines ont prouvé leur efficacité dans le traitement des dyslipidémies. Cependant, ces molécules sont associées à des effets secondaires d’ordre musculaire. Puisque ces effets peuvent avoir des conséquences graves sur la vie des patients en plus d’être possiblement à l’origine de la non-observance d’une proportion importante des patients recevant une statine, un outil pharmacogénomique qui permettrait d’identifier a priori les patients susceptibles de développer des effets secondaires musculaires induits par une statine (ESMIS) serait très utile. L’objectif de la présente étude était donc de déterminer la valeur monétaire d’un tel type d’outil étant donné que cet aspect représenterait une composante importante pour sa commercialisation et son implantation dans la pratique médicale courante. Méthode : Une première simulation fut effectuée à l’aide de la méthode de Markov, mais celle-ci ne permettait pas de tenir compte de tous les éléments désirés. C’est pourquoi la méthode de simulation d'évènements discrets fut utilisée pour étudier une population de 100 000 patients hypothétiques nouvellement initiés sur une statine. Cette population virtuelle a été dupliquée pour obtenir deux cohortes de patients identiques. Une cohorte recevait le test et un traitement approprié alors que l'autre cohorte recevait le traitement standard actuel—i.e., une statine. Le modèle de simulation a permis de faire évoluer les deux cohortes sur une période de 15 ans en tenant compte du risque de maladies cardio-vasculaires (MCV) fatal ou non-fatal, d'ESMIS et de mortalité provenant d’une autre cause que d’une MCV. Les conséquences encourues (MCV, ESMIS, mortalité) par ces deux populations et les coûts associés furent ensuite comparés. Finalement, l’expérience fut répétée à 25 reprises pour évaluer la stabilité des résultats et diverses analyses de sensibilité ont été effectuées. Résultats : La différence moyenne des coûts en traitement des MCV et des ESMIS, en perte de capital humain et en médicament était de 28,89 $ entre les deux cohortes pour la durée totale de l’expérimentation (15 ans). Les coûts étant plus élevés chez celle qui n’était pas soumise au test. Toutefois, l’écart-type à la moyenne était considérable (416,22 $) remettant en question la validité de l’estimation monétaire du test pharmacogénomique. De plus, cette valeur était fortement influencée par la proportion de patients prédisposés aux ESMIS, par l’efficacité et le coût des agents hypolipidémiants alternatifs ainsi que par les coûts des traitements des ESMIS et de la valeur attribuée à un mois de vie supplémentaire. Conclusion : Ces résultats suggèrent qu’un test de prédisposition génétique aux ESMIS aurait une valeur d’environ 30 $ chez des patients s’apprêtant à commencer un traitement à base de statine. Toutefois, l’incertitude entourant la valeur obtenue est très importante et plusieurs variables dont les données réelles ne sont pas disponibles dans la littérature ont une influence importante sur la valeur. La valeur réelle de cet outil génétique ne pourra donc être déterminée seulement lorsque le modèle sera mis à jour avec des données plus précises sur la prévalence des ESMIS et leur impact sur l’observance au traitement puis analysé avec un plus grand nombre de patients.

Un criblage ciblant de nouveaux facteurs impliqués dans l’assemblage mitotique des chromosomes dans le nématode C. elegans

La division cellulaire est un processus fondamental des êtres vivants. À chaque division cellulaire, le matériel génétique d'une cellule mère est dupliqué et ségrégé pour produire deux cellules filles identiques; un processus nommé la mitose. Tout d'abord, la cellule doit condenser le matériel génétique pour être en mesure de séparer mécaniquement et également le matériel génétique. Une erreur dans le niveau de compaction ou dans la dynamique de la mitose occasionne une transmission inégale du matériel génétique. Il est suggéré dans la littérature que ces phénomènes pourraient causé la transformation des cellules cancéreuses. Par contre, le mécanisme moléculaire générant la coordination des changements de haut niveau de la condensation des chromosomes est encore incompris. Dans les dernières décennies, plusieurs approches expérimentales ont identifié quelques protéines conservées dans ce processus. Pour déterminer le rôle de ces facteurs dans la compaction des chromosomes, j'ai effectué un criblage par ARNi couplé à de l'imagerie à haute-résolution en temps réel chez l'embryon de C. elegans. Grâce à cette technique, j'ai découvert sept nouvelles protéines requises pour l'assemblage des chromosomes mitotiques, incluant la Ribonucléotide réductase (RNR) et Topoisomérase II (topo-II). Dans cette thèse, je décrirai le rôle structural de topo-II dans l'assemblage des chromosomes mitotiques et ces mécanismes moléculaires. Lors de la condensation des chromosomes, topo-II agit indépendamment comme un facteur d'assemblage local menant par la suite à la formation d'un axe de condensation tout au long du chromosome. Cette localisation est à l'opposé de la position des autres facteurs connus qui sont impliqués dans la condensation des chromosomes. Ceci représente un nouveau mécanisme pour l'assemblage des chromosomes chez C. elegans. De plus, j'ai découvert un rôle non-enzymatique à la protéine RNR lors de l'assemblage des chromosomes. Lors de ce processus, RNR est impliqué dans la stabilité des nucléosomes et alors, permet la compaction de haut niveau de la chromatine. Dans cette thèse, je rapporte également des résultats préliminaires concernant d'autres nouveaux facteurs découverts lors du criblage ARNi. Le plus important est que mon analyse révèle que la déplétion des nouvelles protéines montre des phénotypes distincts, indiquant la fonction de celles-ci lors de l'assemblage des chromosomes. Somme toute, je conclus que les chromosomes en métaphase sont assemblés par trois protéines ayant des activités différentes d'échafaudage: topoisomérase II, les complexes condensines et les protéines centromériques. En conclusion, ces études prouvent le mécanisme moléculaire de certaines protéines qui contribuent à la formation des chromosomes mitotiques.

Modelling, control and supervision for a class of hybrid systems

The aim of this thesis is to narrow the gap between two different control techniques: the continuous control and the discrete event control techniques DES. This gap can be reduced by the study of Hybrid systems, and by interpreting as Hybrid systems the majority of large-scale systems. In particular, when looking deeply into a process, it is often possible to identify interaction between discrete and continuous signals. Hybrid systems are systems that have both continuous, and discrete signals. Continuous signals are generally supposed continuous and differentiable in time, since discrete signals are neither continuous nor differentiable in time due to their abrupt changes in time. Continuous signals often represent the measure of natural physical magnitudes such as temperature, pressure etc. The discrete signals are normally artificial signals, operated by human artefacts as current, voltage, light etc. Typical processes modelled as Hybrid systems are production systems, chemical process, or continuos production when time and continuous measures interacts with the transport, and stock inventory system. Complex systems as manufacturing lines are hybrid in a global sense. They can be decomposed into several subsystems, and their links. Another motivation for the study of Hybrid systems is the tools developed by other research domains. These tools benefit from the use of temporal logic for the analysis of several properties of Hybrid systems model, and use it to design systems and controllers, which satisfies physical or imposed restrictions. This thesis is focused in particular types of systems with discrete and continuous signals in interaction. That can be modelled hard non-linealities, such as hysteresis, jumps in the state, limit cycles, etc. and their possible non-deterministic future behaviour expressed by an interpretable model description. The Hybrid systems treated in this work are systems with several discrete states, always less than thirty states (it can arrive to NP hard problem), and continuous dynamics evolving with expression: with Ki ¡ Rn constant vectors or matrices for X components vector. In several states the continuous evolution can be several of them Ki = 0. In this formulation, the mathematics can express Time invariant linear system. By the use of this expression for a local part, the combination of several local linear models is possible to represent non-linear systems. And with the interaction with discrete events of the system the model can compose non-linear Hybrid systems. Especially multistage processes with high continuous dynamics are well represented by the proposed methodology. Sate vectors with more than two components, as third order models or higher is well approximated by the proposed approximation. Flexible belt transmission, chemical reactions with initial start-up and mobile robots with important friction are several physical systems, which profits from the benefits of proposed methodology (accuracy). The motivation of this thesis is to obtain a solution that can control and drive the Hybrid systems from the origin or starting point to the goal. How to obtain this solution, and which is the best solution in terms of one cost function subject to the physical restrictions and control actions is analysed. Hybrid systems that have several possible states, different ways to drive the system to the goal and different continuous control signals are problems that motivate this research. The requirements of the system on which we work is: a model that can represent the behaviour of the non-linear systems, and that possibilities the prediction of possible future behaviour for the model, in order to apply an supervisor which decides the optimal and secure action to drive the system toward the goal. Specific problems can be determined by the use of this kind of hybrid models are: - The unity of order. - Control the system along a reachable path. - Control the system in a safe path. - Optimise the cost function. - Modularity of control The proposed model solves the specified problems in the switching models problem, the initial condition calculus and the unity of the order models. Continuous and discrete phenomena are represented in Linear hybrid models, defined with defined eighth-tuple parameters to model different types of hybrid phenomena. Applying a transformation over the state vector : for LTI system we obtain from a two-dimensional SS a single parameter, alpha, which still maintains the dynamical information. Combining this parameter with the system output, a complete description of the system is obtained in a form of a graph in polar representation. Using Tagaki-Sugeno type III is a fuzzy model which include linear time invariant LTI models for each local model, the fuzzyfication of different LTI local model gives as a result a non-linear time invariant model. In our case the output and the alpha measure govern the membership function. Hybrid systems control is a huge task, the processes need to be guided from the Starting point to the desired End point, passing a through of different specific states and points in the trajectory. The system can be structured in different levels of abstraction and the control in three layers for the Hybrid systems from planning the process to produce the actions, these are the planning, the process and control layer. In this case the algorithms will be applied to robotics ¡V a domain where improvements are well accepted ¡V it is expected to find a simple repetitive processes for which the extra effort in complexity can be compensated by some cost reductions. It may be also interesting to implement some control optimisation to processes such as fuel injection, DC-DC converters etc. In order to apply the RW theory of discrete event systems on a Hybrid system, we must abstract the continuous signals and to project the events generated for these signals, to obtain new sets of observable and controllable events. Ramadge & Wonham¡¦s theory along with the TCT software give a Controllable Sublanguage of the legal language generated for a Discrete Event System (DES). Continuous abstraction transforms predicates over continuous variables into controllable or uncontrollable events, and modifies the set of uncontrollable, controllable observable and unobservable events. Continuous signals produce into the system virtual events, when this crosses the bound limits. If this event is deterministic, they can be projected. It is necessary to determine the controllability of this event, in order to assign this to the corresponding set, , controllable, uncontrollable, observable and unobservable set of events. Find optimal trajectories in order to minimise some cost function is the goal of the modelling procedure. Mathematical model for the system allows the user to apply mathematical techniques over this expression. These possibilities are, to minimise a specific cost function, to obtain optimal controllers and to approximate a specific trajectory. The combination of the Dynamic Programming with Bellman Principle of optimality, give us the procedure to solve the minimum time trajectory for Hybrid systems. The problem is greater when there exists interaction between adjacent states. In Hybrid systems the problem is to determine the partial set points to be applied at the local models. Optimal controller can be implemented in each local model in order to assure the minimisation of the local costs. The solution of this problem needs to give us the trajectory to follow the system. Trajectory marked by a set of set points to force the system to passing over them. Several ways are possible to drive the system from the Starting point Xi to the End point Xf. Different ways are interesting in: dynamic sense, minimum states, approximation at set points, etc. These ways need to be safe and viable and RchW. And only one of them must to be applied, normally the best, which minimises the proposed cost function. A Reachable Way, this means the controllable way and safe, will be evaluated in order to obtain which one minimises the cost function. Contribution of this work is a complete framework to work with the majority Hybrid systems, the procedures to model, control and supervise are defined and explained and its use is demonstrated. Also explained is the procedure to model the systems to be analysed for automatic verification. Great improvements were obtained by using this methodology in comparison to using other piecewise linear approximations. It is demonstrated in particular cases this methodology can provide best approximation. The most important contribution of this work, is the Alpha approximation for non-linear systems with high dynamics While this kind of process is not typical, but in this case the Alpha approximation is the best linear approximation to use, and give a compact representation.

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

Late Quaternary highstands at Lake Chilwa, Malawi: frequency, timing and possible forcing mechanisms in the last 44ka

The extensive shoreline deposits of Lake Chilwa, southern Malawi, a shallow water body today covering 600 km2 of a basin of 7500 km2, are investigated for their record of late Quaternary highstands. OSL dating, applied to 36 samples from five sediment cores from the northern and western marginal sand ridges, reveal a highstand record spanning 44 ka. Using two different grouping methods, highstand phases are identified at 43.7–33.3 ka, 26.2–21.0 ka and 17.9–12.0 ka (total error method) or 38.4–35.5 ka, 24.3–22.3 ka, 16.2–15.1 ka and 13.5–12.7 ka (Finite Mixture Model age components) with two further discrete events recorded at 11.01 ± 0.76 ka and 8.52 ± 0.56 ka. Highstands are comparable to the timing of wet phases from other basins in East and southern Africa, demonstrating wet conditions in the region before the LGM, which was dry, and a wet Lateglacial, which commenced earlier in the southern compared to northern hemisphere in East Africa. We find no evidence that wet phases are insolation driven, but analysis of the dataset and GCM modelling experiments suggest that Heinrich events may be associated with enhanced monsoon activity in East Africa in both timing and as a possible causal mechanism.