Future Seniors: Is the Hospitality Industry Ready for Them?

Persons age 55 and over will become the biggest market for hospitality throughout the next 30 years. This future senior market will not have the same needs and characteristics of current seniors. The author discusses the similarities and differences of the current and future senior markets and offers recommendations for meeting the needs of the future senior market.

Discount rates in disarray : evidence on flawed goodwill impairment testing

Carlin and Finch, this issue, compare goodwill impairment discount rates used by a sample of large Australian firms with ‘independently’ generated discount rates. Their objective is to empirically determine whether managers opportunistically select goodwill discount rates subsequent to the 2005 introduction of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in Australia. This is a worthwhile objective given that IFRS introduced an impairment regime, and within this regime, discount rate selection plays a key role in goodwill valuation decisions. It is also timely to consider the goodwill valuation issue. Following the recent downturn in the economy, there is a high probability that many firms will be forced to write down impaired goodwill arising from boom period acquisitions. Hence, evidence of bias in rate selection is likely to be of major concern to investors, policymakers and corporate regulators. Carlin and Finch claim their findings provide evidence of such bias. In this commentary I review the validity of their claims.

Implicit discount rates and fisheries management : is there a relationship?

Fishers are faced with multiple risks, including unpredictability of future catch rates, prices and costs. While the latter are largely beyond the control of fisheries managers, effective fisheries management should reduce uncertainty about future catches. Different management instruments are likely to have different impacts on the risk perception of fishers, and this should manifest itself in their implicit discount rate. Assuming licence and quota values represent the net present value of the flow of expected future profits, then a proxy for the implicit discount rate of vessels in a fishery can be derived by the ratio of the average level of profits to the average licence/quota value. From this, an indication of the risk perception can be derived, assuming higher discount rates reflect higher levels of systematic risk. In this paper, we apply the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to determine the risk premium implicit in the discount rates for a range of Australian fisheries, and compare this with the set of management instruments in place. We test the assumption that rights based management instruments lower perceptions of risk in fisheries. We find little evidence to support this assumption. although the analysis was based on only limited data.

Asthma and protracted bronchitis : who fares better during an acute respiratory infection?

Aim Acute respiratory infections (ARI) are common in children, and symptoms range from days to weeks. The aim of this study was to determine if children with asthma have more severe ARI episodes compared with children with protracted bronchitis and controls. Methods Parents prospectively scored their child's next ARI using the Canadian acute respiratory illness and flu scale (CARIFS) and a validated cough diary (on days 1–7, 10 and 14 of illness). Children were age- and season-matched. Results On days 10 and 14 of illness, children with protracted bronchitis had significantly higher median CARIFS when compared with children with asthma and healthy controls. On day 14, the median CARIFS were: asthma = 4.1 (interquartile range (IQR) 4.0), protracted bronchitis = 19.6 (IQR 25.8) and controls = 4.1 (IQR 5.25). The median cough score was significantly different between groups on days 1, 7, 10 and 14 (P < 0.001). A significantly higher proportion of children with protracted bronchitis (63%) were still coughing at day 14 in comparison with children with asthma (24%) and healthy controls (26%). Conclusion Children with protracted bronchitis had the most severe ARI symptoms and higher percentage of respiratory morbidity at day 14 in comparison with children with asthma and healthy controls.

How does commuting behavior change due to incentives? An empirical study of the Beijing Subway System

This study examines the impact of incentives on commuters' travel behavior based upon a questionnaire survey conducted with respect to the Beijing Subway System. Overall, we find that offering incentives to commuters, particularly fast food restaurant-related services and reduced ticket fares, has a positive influence on avoiding the morning rush hour. Furthermore, by using an interaction analysis, we discover that a flexible work schedule has an impact on commuters' behavior and the efficiency of the subway system. Finally, we recommend two possible policies to maximize the utility of the subway system and to reduce congestion at the peak of morning service: (1) a set of incentives that includes free wireless internet service with a coupon for breakfast and a discount on ticket fares before the morning peak, and; (2) the introduction of a flexible work schedule.

Some empirical evidence on offender time discount rates

The conventional wisdom is that offenders have very high discount rates not only with respect to income and fines but also with respect to time incarcerated. These rates are difficult to measure objectively and the usual approach is to ask subjects hypothetical questions and infer time preference from their answers. In this article, we propose estimating rates at which offenders discount time incarcerated by specifying their equilibrium plea, defined as the discount rate, which equates the time and expected time spent in jail following a guilty plea and a trial. Offenders are assumed to exhibit positive time preference and discount time spent in jail at a constant rate. Our choice of sample is interesting because the offenders are not on bail, punishment is not delayed and the offences are planned therefore conforming to Becker’s model of the decision to commit a crime. Contrary to the discussion in the literature, we do not find evidence of consistently high time discount rates, and therefore cannot unequivocally infer that the prison experience always results in low levels of specific deterrence.

Optimal auctions for multi-unit procurement with volume discount bids

Our attention, is focused on designing an optimal procurement mechanism which a buyer can use for procuring multiple units of a homogeneous item based on bids submitted by autonomous, rational, and intelligent suppliers. We design elegant optimal procurement mechanisms for two different situations. In the first situation, each supplier specifies the maximum quantity that can be supplied together with a per unit price. For this situation, we design an optimal mechanism S-OPT (Optimal with Simple bids). In the more generalized case, each supplier specifies discounts based on the volume of supply. In this case, we design an optimal mechanism VD-OPT (Optimal with Volume Discount, bids). The VD-OPT mechanism uses the S-OPT mechanism as a building block. The proposed mechanisms minimize the cost to the buyer, satisfying at the same time, (a) Bayesian, incentive compatibility and (b) interim individual rationality.

Reconciling yield stability with international fisheries agencies precautionary preferences: the role of non constant discount factors in age structured models

International fisheries agencies recommend exploitation paths that satisfy two features. First, for precautionary reasons exploitation paths should avoid high fishing mortality in those fisheries where the biomass is depleted to a degree that jeopardise the stock's capacity to produce the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). Second, for economic and social reasons, captures should be as stable (smooth) as possible over time. In this article we show that a conflict between these two interests may occur when seeking for optimal exploitation paths using age structured bioeconomic approach. Our results show that this conflict be overtaken by using non constant discount factors that value future stocks considering their relative intertemporal scarcity.

Should governments use a declining discount rate in project analysis?

At a workshop held at Resources for the Future in September 2011, twelve of the authors were asked by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to provide advice on the principles to be used in discounting the benefits and costs of projects that affect future generations. Maureen L. Cropper chaired the workshop. Much of the discussion in this article is based on the authors' recommendations and advice presented at the workshop. © The Author 2014.

Pen and sunlight sketches of scenery reached by the Grand Trunk Railway system and connections with summer routes and fares to principal points : including Niagara Falls, Thousand Islands, Rapids of the St. Lawrence, Montreal, Quebec, Parry Sound, Georgian Bay, Muskoka Lakes, Adirondacks, Lake St. John, Mackinac Island, Midland District Lakes, the White Mountains, the Suquenay River, Rangeley Lakes and the sea-shore.--

At head of title: "Great tourist route of America".