Aggregate uncertainty, disappointment aversion and the business cycle

We investigate the eff ect of aggregate uncertainty shocks on real variables. More speci fically, we introduce a shock in the volatility of productivity in an RBC model with long-run volatility risk and preferences that exhibit generalised disappointment aversion. We find that, when combined with a negative productivity shock, a volatility shock leads to further decline in real variables, such as output, consumption, hours worked and investment. For instance, out of the 2% decrease in output as a result of both shocks, we attribute 0.25% to the e ffect of an increase in volatility. We also fi nd that this e ffect is the same as the one obtained in a model with Epstein-Zin- Weil preferences, but higher than that of a model with expected utility. Moreover, GDA preferences yield superior asset pricing results, when compared to both Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and expected utility.

Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Chew–Dekel Preferences

In this paper we provide a thorough characterization of the asset returns implied by a simple general equilibrium production economy with Chew–Dekel risk preferences and convex capital adjustment costs. When households display levels of disappointment aversion consistent with the experimental evidence, a version of the model parameterized to match the volatility of output and consumption growth generates unconditional expected asset returns and price of risk in line with the historical data. For the model with Epstein–Zin preferences to generate similar statistics, the relative risk aversion coefficient needs to be about 55, two orders of magnitude higher than the available estimates. We argue that this is not surprising, given the limited risk imposed on agents by a reasonably calibrated stochastic growth model.

Does uncertainty cause inertia in decision making? An experimental study of the role of regret aversion and indecisiveness

Previous research has shown that often there is clear inertia in individual decision making---that is, a tendency for decision makers to choose a status quo option. I conduct a laboratory experiment to investigate two potential determinants of inertia in uncertain environments: (i) regret aversion and (ii) ambiguity-driven indecisiveness. I use a between-subjects design with varying conditions to identify the effects of these two mechanisms on choice behavior. In each condition, participants choose between two simple real gambles, one of which is the status quo option. I find that inertia is quite large and that both mechanisms are equally important.

Optimal irrigation depth for bean crops considering water constraints and farmer`s risk aversion level

Nowadays, the rising competition for the use of water and environmental resources with consequent restrictions for farmers should change the paradigm in terms of irrigation concepts, or rather, in order to attain economical efficiency other than to supply water requirement for the crop. Therefore, taking into account the social and economical role of bean activity in Brazil, as well as the risk inherent to crop due to its high sensibility to both deficit and excessive water, the optimization methods regarding to irrigation management have become more interesting and essential. This study intends to present a way to determine the optimal water supply, considering different combinations between desired bean yield and level of risk, bringing as a result a graph with the former associated with the latter, depending on different water depths.

Overshadowing in conditioned taste aversion or in conditioned emotional response after neonatal ventral hippocampal lesions in rats

The neonatal hippocampus lesion thought to model schizophrenia should show the same modifications in behavioural tests as other models, especially pharmacological models. namely decreased latent inhibition, blocking and overshadowing. The present study is set out to evaluate overshadowing in order to complement our previous studies, which had tested latent inhibition. ""Overshadowing"" refers to the decreased conditioning that occurs when the to-be-conditioned stimulus is combined with another stimulus at the conditioning stage. We used the same two Pavlovian conditioning paradigms as in our previous works, namely conditioned taste aversion (CTA) and conditioned emotional response (CER). A sweet taste overshadowed a salty conditioned stimulus, and a tone overshadowed a flashing light. Totally different stimuli were used to counter possible sensory biases. The protocols were validated with two groups of Sprague Dawley rats. The same two protocols were then applied to a cohort of rats whose ventral hippocampus had been destroyed when they were 7 days old. Only rats with extended ventral hippocampus lesions were included. The overall effect of Pavlovian conditioning was attenuated, significantly so in the conditioned emotional response paradigm, but overshadowing appeared not to be modified in either the conditioned emotional response or the conditioned taste aversion paradigm. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Food aversion: A critical balance between allergen-specific IgE levels and taste preference

Animals sensitized to allergens change their feeding behavior and avoid drinking the otherwise preferred sweetened solutions containing the allergens. This phenomenon, known as food aversion, appears to be mediated by allergen-specific IgE antibodies. Here we investigated food aversion in BALB/c and C57BL/6 mice, which differ in their allergic responses to the allergen ovalbumin as well as in their preference for sweet taste. BALB/c mice present higher levels of IgE and a natural lower preference for sweet flavors when compared to C57BL/6 mice. Specifically, we studied a conflicting situation in which animals simultaneously experienced the aversive contact with the allergen and the attractive sweet taste of increasing concentrations of sucrose. We found that BALB/c mice were more prone to develop food aversion than C57BL/6 mice and that this aversive behavior could be abolished in both strains by increasing the palatability of the solution containing the allergen. In both strains food aversion was positively correlated with the levels of allergen-specific IgE antibodies and inversely correlated with their preference for sucrose sweetened solutions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pharmacological Manipulation of Immune-Induced Food Aversion in Rats

Background: Mice allergic to ovalbumin (OVA) avoid drinking a solution containing this antigen. This was interpreted as related to IgE-dependent mast cell degranulation and sensory C fiber activation. Methods: We employed pharmacological manipulation to further investigate the mediators involved in immune-induced food aversion. Results: While nonimmunized rats preferred a sweetened OVA solution, immunized rats avoided it. We also employed a paradigm in which rats are conditioned to drink water for two 10-min sessions a day. Tolerant rats presented lower IgE titers, and this manipulation abrogated food aversion. Dexamethasone (1.0 mg/kg) prevented the aversion of OVA-immunized rats to the antigen-containing solution. Combined blockade of H(1) and 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)(2) receptors by promethazine (3.0 mg/kg) plus methysergide (5.0 mg/kg) was unable to alter food aversion. Blockade of 5-HT(3) receptors by ondansetron (1.0 mg/kg) caused a twofold increase in the ingestion of the sweetened OVA solution by immunized rats, suggesting the involvement of 5-HT(3) receptors in food aversion. Finally, we showed that dexamethasone or promethazine plus methysergide, but not ondansetron, effectively prevented the IgE-dependent mast-cell-degranulation-induced increase in vascular permeability in rats. Conclusion: We suggest that regardless of whether or not they cause edema, IgE-mediated mast cell degranulation and consequent 5-HT(3) signaling are involved in the process that triggers avoidance to the source of the allergen in allergic rats. Copyright (C) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel

Risk Aversion in a Mixed-Integer Nonlinear Approach to Support Decision-Making for a Hydro Power Producer

In this paper, a mixed-integer nonlinear approach is proposed to support decision-making for a hydro power producer, considering a head-dependent hydro chain. The aim is to maximize the profit of the hydro power producer from selling energy into the electric market. As a new contribution to earlier studies, a risk aversion criterion is taken into account, as well as head-dependency. The volatility of the expected profit is limited through the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR). The proposed approach has been applied successfully to solve a case study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems.

Scheduling of a hydro producer considering head-dependency, price scenarios and risk-aversion

In this paper, a mixed-integer quadratic programming approach is proposed for the short-term hydro scheduling problem, considering head-dependency, discontinuous operating regions and discharge ramping constraints. As new contributions to earlier studies, market uncertainty is introduced in the model via price scenarios, and risk aversion is also incorporated by limiting the volatility of the expected profit through the conditional value-at-risk. Our approach has been applied successfully to solve a case Study based on one of the main Portuguese cascaded hydro systems, requiring a negligible computational time.

Reciprocity, inequity aversion, and oligopolistic competition

This paper studies how reciprocity and inequity aversion influence the behavior of firms in imperfectly competitive markets. The paper shows that if reciprocal firms compete à la Cournot, then they are able to sustain “collusive” outcomes under a positive reciprocity equilibrium. By contrast, Stackelberg warfare outcomes may emerge under a negative reciprocity equilibrium. The results for inequity aversion are similar. Cournot competition between inequity averse firms can be harmful to consumers if it leads to equilibria where firms feel compassion toward each other. However, in equilibria where inequity averse firms are envious of each other consumers are better off than if firms were selfish. The paper also shows that only under very restrictive conditions does reciprocity or inequity aversion have an impact on Bertrand competition. Finally, the paper shows that non-selfish preferences have a greater impact on equilibrium outcomes in markets with a small number of firms.

Stress induced risk-aversion is reverted by D2/D3 agonist in the rat

Stress exposure triggers cognitive and behavioral impairments that influence decision-making processes. Decisions under a context of uncertainty require complex reward-prediction processes that are known to be mediated by the mesocorticolimbic dopamine (DA) system in brain areas sensitive to the deleterious effects of chronic stress, in particular the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Using a decision-making task, we show that chronic stress biases risk-based decision-making to safer behaviors. This decision-making pattern is associated with an increased activation of the lateral part of the OFC and with morphological changes in pyramidal neurons specifically recruited by this task. Additionally, stress exposure induces a hypodopaminergic status accompanied by increased mRNA levels of the dopamine receptor type 2 (Drd2) in the OFC; importantly, treatment with a D2/D3 agonist quinpirole reverts the shift to safer behaviors induced by stress on risky decision-making. These results suggest that the brain mechanisms related to risk-based decision-making are altered after chronic stress, but can be modulated by manipulation of dopaminergic transmission.

Stochastic dominance and absolute risk aversion

In this paper we propose the infimum of the Arrow-Pratt index of absolute risk aversion as a measure of global risk aversion of a utility function. We then show that, for any given arbitrary pair of distributions, there exists a threshold level of global risk aversion such that all increasing concave utility functions with at least as much global risk aversion would rank the two distributions in the same way. Furthermore, this threshold level is sharp in the sense that, for any lower level of global risk aversion, we can find two utility functions in this class yielding opposite preference relations for the two distributions.