Segurança em jogo: a questão da segurança pública face à vocação do Rio de Janeiro em sediar eventos de grande porte

Os mega-eventos internacionais diferem muito nos seus propósitos, que podem ser econômicos, políticos, de meio ambiente, culturais, turísticos, esportivos etc. Independente dos seus propósitos, a essência de todos, é sediá-los com sucesso, proporcionando segurança às pessoas que deles participam. Esses eventos representam uma grande oportunidade para a cidade e para o país que os hospeda, pois permitem divulgar ao mundo inteiro seu potencial cultural e turístico, mas, por outro lado, a responsabilidade é um grande desafio para as autoridades envolvidas na organização. Este trabalho aborda a questão da segurança pública no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, perante a realização dos próximos eventos internacionais, como o Mundial de Futebol de 2014 e as Olimpíadas de 2016. O objetivo principal que norteou esta investigação foi identificar os fatores necessários para a construção de uma agenda coletiva que oriente o trabalho matricial de segurança no planejamento destes eventos. Para esse efeito, realizamos uma ampla pesquisa bibliográfica, entrevistas e observação para coletar as informações. Concluímos que esses fatores são: a integração entre governos (Federal, Estaduais e Municipais); a integração das comunidades e de toda a sociedade civil; o planejamento de responsabilidades; conhecimento prévio de cenários anteriores; cooperação com instituições nacionais e internacionais; administração orçamentária e participação logística dos recursos.

Strategic implications of chemical and biological warfare : hearing before the Subcommittees on International Security and Scientific Affairs and on Asian and Pacific Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Ninety-sixth Congress, second session, April 24, 1980.

Mode of access: Internet.

Western security issues : European perspectives : hearing before the Subcommittees on International Security and Scientific Affairs and on Europe and the Middle East of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, Ninety-sixth Congress, first session, September 12, 1979.

Mode of access: Internet.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision.

A Feedback Learning and Mental Models Perspective on Strategic Decision Making

This study aims to be a contribution to a theoretical model that explains the effectiveness of the learning and decision-making processes by means of a feedback and mental models perspective. With appropriate mental models, managers should be able to improve their capacity to deal with dynamically complex contexts, in order to achieve long-term success. We present a set of hypotheses about the influence of feedback information and systems thinking facilitation on mental models and management performance. We explore, under controlled conditions, the role of mental models in terms of structure and behaviour. A test based on a simulation experiment with a system dynamics model was performed. Three out of the four hypotheses were confirmed. Causal diagramming positively influences mental model structure similarity, mental model structure similarity positively influences mental model behaviour similarity, and mental model behaviour similarity positively influences the quality of the decision

Clinical Epidemiology of Buruli ulcer from Benin (2005-2013): effect of time-delay to diagnosis on clinical forms and severe phenotypes

Buruli Ulcer (BU) is a neglected infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans that is responsible for severe necrotizing cutaneous lesions that may be associated with bone involvement. Clinical presentations of BU lesions are classically classified as papules, nodules, plaques and edematous infiltration, ulcer or osteomyelitis. Within these different clinical forms, lesions can be further classified as severe forms based on focality (multiple lesions), lesions' size (>15 cm diameter) or WHO Category (WHO Category 3 lesions). There are studies reporting an association between delay in seeking medical care and the development of ulcerative forms of BU or osteomyelitis, but the effect of time-delay on the emergence of lesions classified as severe has not been addressed. To address both issues, and in a cohort of laboratory-confirmed BU cases, 476 patients from a medical center in Allada, Benin, were studied. In this laboratory-confirmed cohort, we validated previous observations, demonstrating that time-delay is statistically related to the clinical form of BU. Indeed, for non-ulcerated forms (nodule, edema, and plaque) the median time-delay was 32.5 days (IQR 30.0-67.5), while for ulcerated forms it was 60 days (IQR 20.0-120.0) (p = 0.009), and for bone lesions, 365 days (IQR 228.0-548.0). On the other hand, we show here that time-delay is not associated with the more severe phenotypes of BU, such as multi-focal lesions (median 90 days; IQR 56-217.5; p = 0.09), larger lesions (diameter >15 cm) (median 60 days; IQR 30-120; p = 0.92) or category 3 WHO classification (median 60 days; IQR 30-150; p = 0.20), when compared with unifocal (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), small lesions (diameter =15 cm) (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), or WHO category 1+2 lesions (median 60 days; IQR 30-90), respectively. Our results demonstrate that after an initial period of progression towards ulceration or bone involvement, BU lesions become stable regarding size and focal/multi-focal progression. Therefore, in future studies on BU epidemiology, severe clinical forms should be systematically considered as distinct phenotypes of the same disease and thus subjected to specific risk factor investigation.

Impact of additional cytogenetic aberrations at diagnosis on prognosis of CML: long-term observation of 1151 patients from the randomized CML Study IV.

The prognostic relevance of additional cytogenetic findings at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is unclear. The impact of additional cytogenetic findings at diagnosis on time to complete cytogenetic (CCR) and major molecular remission (MMR) and progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was analyzed using data from 1151 Philadelphia chromosome-positive (Ph(+)) CML patients randomized to the German CML Study IV. At diagnosis, 1003 of 1151 patients (87%) had standard t(9;22)(q34;q11) only, 69 patients (6.0%) had variant t(v;22), and 79 (6.9%) additional cytogenetic aberrations (ACAs). Of these, 38 patients (3.3%) lacked the Y chromosome (-Y) and 41 patients (3.6%) had ACAs except -Y; 16 of these (1.4%) were major route (second Philadelphia [Ph] chromosome, trisomy 8, isochromosome 17q, or trisomy 19) and 25 minor route (all other) ACAs. After a median observation time of 5.3 years for patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y, minor- and major-route ACAs, the 5-year PFS was 90%, 81%, 88%, 96%, and 50%, and the 5-year OS was 92%, 87%, 91%, 96%, and 53%, respectively. In patients with major-route ACAs, the times to CCR and MMR were longer and PFS and OS were shorter (P < .001) than in patients with standard t(9;22). We conclude that major-route ACAs at diagnosis are associated with a negative impact on survival and signify progression to the accelerated phase and blast crisis.

Impact of Balanced or Unbalanced Karyotype At Diagnosis On Prognosis of CML: Long-Term Observation From 1346 Patients of the Randomized CML Study IV

Introduction: Acquired genetic instability in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) as a consequence of the translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11) and the resulting BCR-ABL fusion causes the continuous acquisition of additional chromosomal aberrations and mutations and thereby progression to accelerated phase (AP) and blast crisis (BC). At least 10% of patients in chronic phase (CP) CML show additional alterations at diagnosis. This proportion rises during the course of the disease up to 80% in BC. Acquisition of chromosomal changes during treatment is considered as a poor prognostic indicator, whereas the impact of chromosomal aberrations at diagnosis depends on their type. Patients with major route additional chromosomal alterations (major ACA: +8, i(17)(q10), +19, +der(22)t(9;22)(q34;q11) have a worse outcome whereas patients with minor route ACA show no difference in overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) compared to patients with the standard translocation, a variant translocation or the loss of the Y chromosome (Fabarius et al., Blood 2011). However, the impact of balanced vs. unbalanced (gains or losses of chromosomes or chromosomal material) karyotypes at diagnosis on prognosis of CML is not clear yet. Patients and methods: Clinical and cytogenetic data of 1346 evaluable out of 1544 patients with Philadelphia and BCR-ABL positive CP CML randomized until December 2011 to the German CML-Study IV, a randomized 5-arm trial to optimize imatinib therapy by combination, or dose escalation and stem cell transplantation were investigated. There were 540 females (40%) and 806 males (60%). Median age was 53 years (range, 16-88). The impact of additional cytogenetic aberrations in combination with an unbalanced or balanced karyotype at diagnosis on time to complete cytogenetic and major molecular remission (CCR, MMR), PFS and OS was investigated. Results: At diagnosis 1174/1346 patients (87%) had the standard t(9;22)(q34;q11) only and 75 patients (6%) had a variant t(v;22). In 64 of 75 patients with t(v;22), only one further chromosome was involved in the translocation; In 8 patients two, in 2 patients three, and in one patient four further chromosomes were involved. Ninety seven patients (7%) had additional cytogenetic aberrations. Of these, 44 patients (3%) lacked the Y chromosome (-Y) and 53 patients (4%) had major or minor ACA. Thirty six of the 53 patients (2.7%) had an unbalanced karyotype (including all patients with major route ACA and patients with other unbalanced alterations like -X, del(1)(q21), del(5)(q11q14), +10, t(15;17)(p10;p10), -21), and 17 (1.3%) a balanced karyotype with reciprocal translocations [e.g. t(1;21); t(2;16); t(3;12); t(4;6); t(5;8); t(15;20)]. After a median observation time of 5.6 years for patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y, balanced and unbalanced karyotype with ACA median times to CCR were 1.05, 1.05, 1.03, 2.58 and 1.51 years, to MMR 1.31, 1.51, 1.65, 2.97 and 2.07 years. Time to CCR and MMR was longer in patients with balanced karyotypes (data statistically not significant). 5-year PFS was 89%, 78%, 87%, 94% and 69% and 5-year OS 91%, 87%, 89%, 100% and 73%, respectively. In CML patients with unbalanced karyotype PFS (p<0.001) and OS (p<0.001) were shorter than in patients with standard translocation (or balanced karyotype; p<0.04 and p<0.07, respectively). Conclusion: We conclude that the prognostic impact of additional cytogenetic alterations at diagnosis of CML is heterogeneous and consideration of their types may be important. Not only patients with major route ACA at diagnosis of CML but also patients with unbalanced karyotypes identify a group of patients with shorter PFS and OS as compared to all other patients. Therefore, different therapeutic options such as intensive therapy with the most potent tyrosine kinase inhibitors or stem cell transplantation are required.

Gastrointestinal malformations: impact of prenatal diagnosis on gestational age at birth.

The aim of the study was to analyse the degree to which gestational age (GA) has been shortened due to prenatal diagnosis of gastrointestinal malformations (GIM). The data source for the study was 14 population-based registries of congenital malformations (EUROCAT). All liveborn infants with GIMs and without chromosomal anomalies, born 1997-2002, were included. The 14 registries identified 1047 liveborn infants with one or more GIMs (oesophageal atresia, duodenal atresia, omphalocele, gastroschisis and diaphragmatic hernia). Median GA at birth was lower in prenatally diagnosed cases for all five malformations, although not statistically significant for gastroschisis. There was little difference in median birthweight by GA for the pre- and postnatally diagnosed infants. The difference in GA at birth between prenatally and postnatally diagnosed infants with GIMs is enough to increase the risk of mortality for the prenatally diagnosed infants. Clinicians need to balance the risk of early delivery against the benefits of clinical convenience when making case management decisions after prenatal diagnosis. Very few studies have been able to show benefits of prenatal diagnosis of congenital malformations for liveborn infants. This may be because the benefits of prenatal diagnosis are outweighed by the problems arising from a lower GA at birth.

A fuzzy-based decision model application on strategic management

In this article, the objective is to demonstrate the effects of different decision styles on strategic decisions and likewise, on an organization. The technique that was presented in the study is based on the transformation of linguistic variables to numerical value intervals. In this model, the study benefits from fuzzy logic methodology and fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy methodology approach allows us to examine the relations between decision making styles and strategic management processes when there is uncertainty. The purpose is to provide results to companies that may help them to exercise the most appropriate decision making style for its different strategic management processes. The study is leaving more research topics for further studies that may be applied to other decision making areas within the strategic management process.

Impact of unbalanced minor route versus major route karyotypes at diagnosis on prognosis of CML.

Major route additional cytogenetic aberrations (ACA) at diagnosis of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) indicate an increased risk of progression and shorter survival. Since major route ACA are almost always unbalanced, it is unclear whether other unbalanced ACA at diagnosis also confer an unfavourable prognosis. On the basis of 1348 Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic phase patients of the randomized CML study IV, we examined the impact of unbalanced minor route ACA at diagnosis versus major route ACA on prognosis. At diagnosis, 1175 patients (87.2 %) had a translocation t(9;22)(q34;q11) and 74 (5.5 %) a variant translocation t(v;22) only, while a loss of the Y chromosome (-Y) was present in addition in 44 (3.3 %), balanced or unbalanced minor route ACA each in 17 (1.3 %) and major route ACA in 21 (1.6 %) cases. Patients with unbalanced minor route ACA had no significantly different cumulative incidences of complete cytogenetic remission or major molecular remission and no significantly different progression-free survival (PFS) or overall survival (OS) than patients with t(9;22), t(v;22), -Y and balanced minor route karyotypes. In contrast, patients with major route ACA had a shorter OS and PFS than all other groups (all pairwise comparisons to each of the other groups: p ≤ 0.015). Five-year survival probabilities were for t(9;22) 91.4 % (95 % CI 89.5-93.1), t(v; 22) 87 % (77.2-94.3), -Y 89.0 % (76.7-97.0), balanced 100 %, unbalanced minor route 92.3 % (72.4-100) and major route 52.2 % (28.2-75.5). We conclude that only major route, but not balanced or unbalanced minor route ACA at diagnosis, has a negative impact on prognosis of CML.

Pursuit of change versus organizational inertia: a study on strategic renewal in the Finnish broadcasting company

This doctoral dissertation explores the intra-organizational dynamics of a strategic renewal process. The main research question is how the pursuit of change and organizational inertia co-exist, intertwine, and collide in organizational cognition and capabilities during the strategic renewal. It is a comprehensive study on how organizational capabilities, organizational cognition, and structure enhance and inhibit change. Theoretically, the study is positioned in the modern tradition of strategy research, using the dynamic capability view and the organizational and managerial cognition research tradition as the main theoretical frames. Empirically, the study is a longitudinal case study of the Finnish Broadcasting Company (Yle), following the organizational changes during the years of 2011-1014. The analysis is based on both quantitative and qualitative data, which was collected during the research process using surveys, interviews, and archives. The main theoretical contribution is the application of the two theoretical approaches in one study. Empirically, the study contributes to operationalization of the concepts related to the dynamic capability view and organizational cognition, in a media context that is going through drastic changes due to digitalization. Furthermore, the case of a public broadcasting company extends the application of the theoretical concepts to the context of public management. The results suggest that renewal is a complex process, in which an organization’s perceptions intertwine with the strategic actions and decision-making. The change evolves pathdependently: the past experiences, routines, and organizational structures tend to dictate the future visions, desires, and actions. The study also reveals how the public nature of an organization adds to the tensions between change and organizational inertia, and hampers the decision-making. The doctoral dissertation consists of six research papers, each of which explores the phenomenon under study from a different perspective.