Impacto do abastecimento irregular de água nos altos índices de dengue

Dengue fever is an infectious disease that causes thousands of deaths each year in Brazil and other tropical countries. This work demonstrates that the irregularity in the supply of water by public water supply systems is a major factor that contributes to the proliferation of breeding sites of the mosquito that transmits dengue, due to the impossibility of removing water storage tanks. 31 points in the water supply network in thirteen districts of Natal, Brazil, were monitored by the installation of pressure gauges type Datalogger. The data about pressure showed deficiency in water supplies in many neighborhoods, forcing residents to accumulate water in tanks at ground level. In addition, It was observed that in neighborhoods with regular water supply, Infestation Index per type of container (ITR) of type A2 (Deposit ground level) was 0.00% and where there were failures in the supply of water , the ITR was high (above 50%). We believe that policies to combat dengue in Brazil should be reassessed so that more resources can be directed to the improvement of water supply systems and supply companies should be blamed for the problem too

Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran’s I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

Surveillance of dengue fever virus: a review of epidemiological models and early warning systems

Dengue fever is one of the world’s most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many factors including urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative techniques are primarily based on controlling mosquito vectors as other prophylactic measures, such as a tetravalent vaccine are unlikely to be available in the foreseeable future. However, the continually increasing dengue incidence suggests that this strategy alone is not sufficient. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of accurately predicting disease outbreaks. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale.

Dengue fever viral exposure rates among blood donors during outbreaks in North Queensland

Introduction: Dengue poses a problem for safe transfusion of blood components with confirmed reports of transfusion-transmission in Hong Kong and Singapore. The largest outbreak in 50 years occurred in North Queensland during 2008/2009 with more than 1,000 confirmed cases in Cairns and Townsville. During this outbreak, supplementary questioning for all donors was implemented, and fresh components were not manufactured from at risk donors. We aim to determine the seroprevalence of dengue exposure in this population during this epidemic. Methods: Samples were collected from blood donors during the 2008/2009 epidemic and 3 months after the last confirmed case. These samples were tested for anti-Dengue IgM, IgG and NS1 antigen with commercially available ELISA based assay kits from PanBio. Results: Initial analyses revealed 2.7% of samples from deferred donors were IgM repeat reactive. Of these, 16% were also positive for anti-dengue IgG, while none of these were positive for the NS1 viral antigen. However, two NS1 positives were found in samples collected from deferred donors. Conclusions: This initial analysis represents recent and cumulative past exposure in a presumed asymptomatic population, and will provide documentation of the rate of asymptomatic dengue infection during the epidemic. This data can also be used to assess the risk of dengue becoming endemic in North Queensland given that the mosquito vector is established in this region.

Space-time clusters of dengue fever in Bangladesh

Objective:  To examine the space-time clustering of dengue fever (DF) transmission in Bangladesh using geographical information system and spatial scan statistics (SaTScan). Methods:  We obtained data on monthly suspected DF cases and deaths by district in Bangladesh for the period of 2000–2009 from Directorate General of Health Services. Population and district boundary data of each district were collected from national census managed by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. To identify the space-time clusters of DF transmission a discrete Poisson model was performed using SaTScan software. Results:  Space-time distribution of DF transmission was clustered during three periods 2000–2002, 2003–2005 and 2006–2009. Dhaka was the most likely cluster for DF in all three periods. Several other districts were significant secondary clusters. However, the geographical range of DF transmission appears to have declined in Bangladesh over the last decade. Conclusion:  There were significant space-time clusters of DF in Bangladesh over the last decade. Our results would prompt future studies to explore how social and ecological factors may affect DF transmission and would also be useful for improving DF control and prevention programs in Bangladesh.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

Risk factors associated with an outbreak of dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

Dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) appears to be emerging in Hanoi in recent years. A case-control study was performed to investigate risk factors for the development of DF/DHF in Hanoi. A total of 73 patients with DF/DHF and 73 control patients were included in the study. The risk factor analysis indicated that living in rented housing, living near uncovered sewers, and living in a house discharging sewage directly into to ponds were all significantly associated with DF/DHF. People living in rented houses were 2·2 times more at risk of DF/DHF than those living in their own homes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·1–4·6]. People living in an unhygienic house, or in a house discharging sewage directly to the ponds were 3·4 times and 4·3 times, respectively, more likely to be associated with DF/DHF (aOR 3·4, 95% CI 1–11·7; aOR 4·3, 95% CI 1·1–16·9). These results contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of dengue transmission in Hanoi, which is needed to implement dengue prevention and control programmes effectively and efficiently.

Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever cases in Guangdong province, China

Background Dengue fever has been a major public health concern in China since it re-emerged in Guangdong province in 1978. This study aimed to explore spatiotemporal characteristics of dengue fever cases for both indigenous and imported cases during recent years in Guangdong province, so as to identify high-risk areas of the province and thereby help plan resource allocation for dengue interventions. Methods Notifiable cases of dengue fever were collected from all 123 counties of Guangdong province from 2005 to 2010. Descriptive temporal and spatial analysis were conducted, including plotting of seasonal distribution of cases, and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence by county. The space-time scan statistic was used to determine space-time clusters of dengue fever cases at the county level, and a geographical information system was used to visualize the location of the clusters. Analysis were stratified by imported and indigenous origin. Results 1658 dengue fever cases were recorded in Guangdong province during the study period, including 94 imported cases and 1564 indigenous cases. Both imported and indigenous cases occurred more frequently in autumn. The areas affected by the indigenous and imported cases presented a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The results showed that the most likely cluster of imported cases (relative risk = 7.52, p < 0.001) and indigenous cases (relative risk = 153.56, p < 0.001) occurred in the Pearl River Delta Area; while a secondary cluster of indigenous cases occurred in one district of the Chao Shan Area (relative risk = 471.25, p < 0.001). Conclusions This study demonstrated that the geographic range of imported and indigenous dengue fever cases has expanded over recent years, and cases were significantly clustered in two heavily urbanised areas of Guangdong province. This provides the foundation for further investigation of risk factors and interventions in these high-risk areas.

Partial discharges at low pressures in a dielectric interface between uniform field electrodes

Partial discharges in a gaseous interface due to the presence of a dielectric between two uniform field electrodes in air at different pressures from 0.5 to 685 mm Hg have been studied and measurements of inception and extinction voltages, number of pulses and their charge magnitudes at inception are reported. It has been observed that the extinction voltage can be as low as 70% of the inception voltage suggesting that the working voltage in such cases should be about 30% lower than the observed inception voltage. Small magnitude pulses are found to be more in number than large magnitude pulses. The charge is found to be pressure dependent. The results have been explained on the basis of an equivalent circuit consisting of resistance and capacitance in which the discharge gap functions as a switch.

Surface Discharge Studies with Uniform Field Electrodes at Low Pressures

An investigation of power frequency (50 Hz) surface partial discharges in dry air, using 21r/3 Rogowski profile electrodes in the low pressure range of 0.067 to 91.333 kPa, shows that for the discharges occurring symmetrically around the electrodes and just outside the uniform field region, the breakdown voltages are 20 to 30% lower than those accounted for by the usual Paschen values. Emphasis, therefore, has been given to modified values of breakdown voltages for any useful calculations. The effect of reduced pressure on inception voltage has been discussed and an attempt has been made to explain the difference between the observed and calculated values on the basis of a pressure-dependent secondary ionization coefficient. It is shown that increasing the insulation thickness in a critical pressure range (0.067 to 0.400 kPa) does not allow any significant increase in the discharge free working stress of the insulation system. At higher pressures (>0.400 kPa) the increase in inception voltage with thickness and pressure follows an equation which is expected to hold for other insulating materials as well.

Impulse Voltage Breakdown Characteristics of Point-Plane Gaps at Low Pressures

Practical applications of vacuum as an insulator necessitated determining the low-pressure breakdown characteristics of long gap lengths of a point-plane electrode system. The breakdown voltage has been found to vary as the square root of the gap length. Further, with the point electrode as the anode, the values of the breakdown voltages obtained have been found to be larger than those obtained with a plane-parallel electrode system at a corresponding gap length. By applying the theory of the anode heating mechanism as the cause for breakdown, the results have been justified, and by utilizing a field efficiency factor which is the ratio of the average to maximum field, an empirical criterion has been developed. This criterion helps in calculating the breakdown voltage of a nonuniform gap system by the knowledge of the breakdown voltage of a plane-parallel electrode system.

Impulse-voltage breakdown characteristics of large gaps at low pressures

A study of the gap breakdown voltage characteristic at a low pressure of 7×10-5 Torr with a standard (1/50)-μsec impulse-voltage wave reveals an agreement with the criterion Vb=Cd0.5 suggested by Cranberg. Voltage-time-to-breakdown characteristics has also been determined. From these studies, it is concluded that impulse breakdown in vacuum is initiated by an electron current heating an anode spot and thereby liberating a clump which causes breakdown.

A radial differential mobility analyzer for the size-classification of gas-phase synthesized nanoparticles at low pressures

Differential mobility analyzers (DMAs) are commonly used to generate monodisperse nanoparticle aerosols. Commercial DMAs operate at quasi-atmospheric pressures and are therefore not designed to be vacuum-tight. In certain particle synthesis methods, the use of a vacuum-compatible DMA is a requirement as a process step for producing high-purity metallic particles. A vacuum-tight radial DMA (RDMA) has been developed and tested at low pressures. Its performance has been evaluated by using a commercial NANO-DMA as the reference. The performance of this low-pressure RDMA (LP-RDMA) in terms of the width of its transfer function is found to be comparable with that of other NANO-DMAs at atmospheric pressure and is almost independent of the pressure down to 30 mbar. It is shown that LP-RDMA can be used for the classification of nanometer-sized particles (5-20 nm) under low pressure condition (30 mbar) and has been successfully applied to nanoparticles produced by ablating FeNi at low pressures.