System Identification and Prediction of Dengue Fever Incidence in Rio de Janeiro

Identification, prediction, and control of a system are engineering subjects, regardless of the nature of the system. Here, the temporal evolution of the number of individuals with dengue fever weekly recorded in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during 2007, is used to identify SIS (susceptible-infective-susceptible) and SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) models formulated in terms of cellular automaton (CA). In the identification process, a genetic algorithm (GA) is utilized to find the probabilities of the state transition S -> I able of reproducing in the CA lattice the historical series of 2007. These probabilities depend on the number of infective neighbors. Time-varying and non-time-varying probabilities, three different sizes of lattices, and two kinds of coupling topology among the cells are taken into consideration. Then, these epidemiological models built by combining CA and GA are employed for predicting the cases of sick persons in 2008. Such models can be useful for forecasting and controlling the spreading of this infectious disease.

Coeficientes de incidência do dengue e sua relação com os diferenciais intra-urbanos segundo condições de vida no município do Natal, Rio Grande do Norte

This study sprang from the hypothesis that spatial variations in the morbidity rate for dengue fever within the municipality of Natal are related to intra-city socioeconomic and environmental variations. The objective of the project was to classify the different suburbs of Natal according to their living conditions and establish if there was any correlation between this classification and the incidence rate for dengue fever, with the aim of enabling public health planners to better control this disease. Data on population density, access to safe drinking water, rubbish collection, sewage disposal facilities, income level, education and the incidence of dengue fever during the years 2001 and 2003 was drawn from the Brazilian Demographic Census 2000 and from the Reportable Disease Notification System -SINAN. The study is presented here in the form of two papers, corresponding to the types of analysis performed: a classification of the urban districts into quartiles according to the living conditions which exist there, in the first article; and the incidence of dengue fever in each of these quartiles, in the second. By applying factorial analysis to the chosen socioeconomic and environmental indicators for the year 2000, a compound index of living condition (ICV) was obtained. On the basis of this index, it was possible to classify the urban districts into quartiles. On undertaking this grouping (paper 1), a heterogeneous distribution of living conditions was found across the city. As to the incidence rate for dengue fever (paper 2), it was discovered that the quartile identified as having the best living conditions presented incidence rates of 15.62 and 15.24 per 1000 inhabitants respectively in the years 2001 and 2003; whereas the quartile representing worst living conditions showed incidence rates of 25.10 and 10.32 for the comparable periods. The results suggest that dengue fever occurs in all social classes, and that its incidence is not related in any evident way to the chosen formula for living conditions

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

Study of the relationship between Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti egg and adult densities, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of São Paulo, Brazil

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between Aedes aegypti egg and adult density indices, dengue fever and climate in Mirassol, state of São Paulo, Brazil, between November 2004-November 2005. Weekly collections of adults and eggs were made using, respectively, manual aspirators and oviposition traps that produced four entomological indices (positivity and average of females and eggs). Weekly incidence coefficients were calculated based on dengue cases. Each week, the data obtained from entomological indices were related to each other, dengue, and climate variables. The first index to show an association with dengue transmission was the female average, followed by female positivity and egg average. Egg positivity did not show a relationship with risk for dengue, but was sensitive to identifying the presence of the vector, principally in dry seasons. The relationship between climatic factors, the vector and the disease found in this study can be widely employed in planning and undertaking dengue surveillance and control activities, but it is a tool that has not been considered by the authorities responsible for controlling the disease. In fact, this relationship permits the use of information about climate for early detection of epidemics and for establishing more effective prevention strategies than currently exist.

Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis) and spatially (place of residence) in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14). The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

Evaluation of dengue fever reports during an epidemic, Colombia

OBJECTIVE To assess the validity of dengue fever reports and how they relate to the definition of case and severity. METHODS Diagnostic test assessment was conducted using cross-sectional sampling from a universe of 13,873 patients treated during the fifth epidemiological period in health institutions from 11 Colombian departments in 2013. The test under analyses was the reporting to the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the reference standard was the review of histories identified by active institutional search. We reviewed all histories of patients diagnosed with dengue fever, as well as a random sample of patients with febrile syndromes. The specificity and sensitivity of reports were estimated for this purpose, considering the inverse of the probability of being selected for weighting. The concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search was calculated using Kappa statistics. RESULTS We included 4,359 febrile patients, and 31.7% were classified as compatible with dengue fever (17 with severe dengue fever; 461 with dengue fever and warning signs; 904 with dengue fever and no warning signs). The global sensitivity of reports was 13.2% (95%CI 10.9;15.4) and specificity was 98.4% (95%CI 97.9;98.9). Sensitivity varied according to severity: 12.1% (95%CI 9.3;14.8) for patients presenting dengue fever with no warning signs; 14.5% (95%CI 10.6;18.4) for those presenting dengue fever with warning signs, and 40.0% (95%CI 9.6;70.4) for those with severe dengue fever. Concordance between reporting and the findings of the active institutional search resulted in a Kappa of 10.1%. CONCLUSIONS Low concordance was observed between reporting and the review of clinical histories, which was associated with the low reporting of dengue fever compatible cases, especially milder cases.

Involvement of the central nervous system in dengue fever: three serologically confirmed cases from Fortaleza, Ceará, Brazil

Three cases of dengue fever involving the central nervous system (CNS) are reported. All occurred in 1994 during a dengue (DEN) epidemic caused by serotypes DEN-1 and DEN-2. The first case examined was a 17-year-old girl who complained of fever, nuchal rigidity and genital bleeding. Three blood samples were positive by anti-dengue IgM ELISA and showed hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) test titers ³ 1,280. The second case concerned a 86-year-old woman with fever, muscle and joint pains, altered consciousness, syncope, nuchal rigidity and meningismus. Her blood sample showed an HI titer of 1:320 for flaviviruses, and an IgM ELISA positive for dengue. The third case was a 67-year-old woman with fever, abnormal behaviour, seizures, tremor of extremities, thrombocytopenia, increased hematocrit and leukopenia. The patient suffered a typical case of dengue hemorrhagic fever with ensuing shock and a fatal outcome. A single blood sample showed HI antibodies of ³ 1,280 and an IgM ELISA positive for dengue. No virus could be isolated from any patient by inoculation of blood into C6/36 cells and suckling mice. No other agent of disease was encountered in the patient.

Acute inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (Guillain-Barré syndrome) following dengue fever

This paper reports a case of dengue in a six-year-old female child who suddenly developed excruciating headaches, fever, myalgia and paresis. Laboratory examinations included blood count, platelet count, biochemical tests (BUN, creatinine, aminotransferases, and total bilirubin and bilirubin fractions) and specific IgM titers (enzyme-immunoassay with recombinant tetravalent dengue). After ten days of hospitalization and having already been in a home environment, a new clinical image emerged, characterized by dysphagia, dysphonia, weakness, peripheral facial palsy and paresthesia. The diagnosis of Guillain-Barré Syndrome was based on clinical findings, cerebrospinal fluid examination, electrophysiological findings and the exclusion of other pathologies. Our case, as some shown in previous reports, calls attention to the possibility that Guillain-Barré Syndrome may occur in association with dengue.

BIOPSY PROVEN ACUTE TUBULAR NECROSIS DUE TO RHABDOMYOLYSIS IN A DENGUE FEVER PATIENT: A CASE REPORT AND REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Renal histology results are very scarce in dengue-associated rhabdomyolysis patients developing acute kidney injury (AKI). We report a case of dengue fever-induced AKI associated to rhabdomyolysis with a renal biopsy showing acute tubular necrosis (ATN) and renal deposition of myoglobin. A 28-year-old patient who presented dengue fever (DF) complicated by severe AKI and rhabdomyolysis is described. The patient required hemodialysis for three weeks. A renal biopsy revealed ATN with positive staining for myoglobin in the renal tubuli. The patient was discharged with recovered renal function. In conclusion, this case report described a biopsy proven ATN associated to DF-induced rhabdomyolysis, in which renal deposition of myoglobin was demonstrated. We suggest that serum creatine phosphokinase should be monitored in DF patients to allow for an early diagnosis of rhabdomyolysis and the institution of renal protective measures.

SERUM LEVELS OF COPPER AND IRON IN DENGUE FEVER

SUMMARY The role of trace elements in dengue virulence is not yet known. The present study assessed the serum levels of two micronutrients, copper and iron, in cases of dengue fever. The study involved 96 patients of whom 48 had either severe or non-severe forms of dengue (with and without warning signs), and the remaining 48 were patients with other febrile illnesses (OFI), used as controls. Serum levels of copper and iron were evaluated at admission and by the time of defervescence using commercially available kits. At admission, no difference in the level of serum copper was observed between cases and controls. In the group of dengue cases, the copper level was found to be significantly decreased in severe and non-severe cases with warning signs, compared to non-severe cases without warning signs. In contrast, by the time of defervescence the copper level was found to be increased in all dengue cases compared to OFI controls, but no difference was observed among dengue cases. Unlike OFI controls, dengue cases showed an increasing pattern of copper levels from admission until defervescence. On the other hand, no such significant differences were observed in the serum level of iron in the clinical groups, except for a decreased iron level found in severe cases, compared to non-severe dengue without warning signs. The results show that copper is associated with dengue severity and this finding emphasizes the need to investigate the involvement of trace elements in disease severity so as to improve the prognosis of dengue.

Severe coinfection of melioidosis and dengue fever in northeastern Brazil: first case report

This report focuses on a fatality involving severe dengue fever and melioidosis in a 28-year-old truck driver residing in Pacoti in northeastern Brazil. He exhibited long-term respiratory symptoms (48 days) and went through a wide-ranging clinical investigation at three hospitals, after initial clinical diagnoses of pneumonia, visceral leishmaniasis, tuberculosis, and fungal sepsis. After death, Burkholderia pseudomallei was isolated in a culture of ascitic fluid. Dengue virus type 1 was detected by polymerase chain reaction in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF); this infection was the cause of death. This description reinforces the need to consider melioidosis among the reported differential diagnoses of community-acquired infections where both melioidosis and dengue fever are endemic.

Ludwig's angina after severe thrombocytopenic purpura associated with dengue fever

Here, we report a case of Ludwig's angina, which required surgery because of toothache. The patient had dengue and severe thrombocytopenia as confirmed by clinical and laboratory diagnoses. However, dengue is not included among the predisposing factors for Ludwig's angina.

Increased Pro-inflammatory Cytokines (TNF-a and IL-6) and Anti-inflammatory Compounds (sTNFRp55 and sTNFRp75) in Brazilian Patients during Exanthematic Dengue Fever

Pro-inflammatory cytokines, tumor necrosis factor (TNF-a), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and interleukin-1b (IL-1b) as well as anti-inflammatory compounds, soluble TNF-Receptor p55 (sTNFRp55), sTNFRp75 and IL-1 receptor antagonist (sIL-1Ra), were investigated in 34 Brazilian cases of dengue fever (DF) originated from a study of exanthematic virosis. The presence of pro-inflammatory cytokines was detected in sera from these patients by ELISA. TNF-a and IL-6 levels were significantly higher than control subjects in 32% and 52% patients, respectively. To our knowledge this was the first time a receptor antagonist and soluble receptors for cytokines were detected in sera obtained during exanthematic DF without hemorrhagic manifestations. Both sTNFRp55 and sTNFRp75 were consistently elevated in 42% and 84% patients, respectively. Most patients had IL-1b levels not different from those of normal subjects, except for one case. Only 16% patients had altered levels of IL-1Ra. Previous studies in dengue hemorrhagic fever patients demonstrated production of these soluble factors; here we observed that they are found in absence of hemorrhagic manifestations. The possible role of these anti-inflammatory compounds in immune cell activation and in regulating cytokine-mediated pathogenesis during dengue infection is discussed.

Detection of circulant tumor necrosis factor-alpha , soluble tumor necrosis factor p75 and interferon-gamma in Brazilian patients with dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever

Pro-inflammatory cytokines are believed to play an important role in the pathogenesis of dengue infection. This study reports cytokine levels in a total of 54 patients examined in Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Five out of eight patients who had hemorrhagic manifestations presented tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) levels in sera which were statistically higher than those recorded for controls. In contrast, only one out of 16 patients with mild manifestations had elevated TNF-alpha levels. The levels of interleukin-6 (IL), IL-1beta tested in 24 samples and IL-12 in 30 samples were not significantly increased. Interferon-g was present in 10 out of 30 patients with dengue. The data support the concept that the increased level of TNF-alpha is related to the severity of the disease. Soluble TNF receptor p75 was found in most patients but it is unlikely to be related to severity since it was found with an equivalent frequency and levels in 15 patients with dengue fever and another 15 with dengue hemorrhagic fever.