Score-level multibiometric fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory incorporating uncertainty factors

While existing multi-biometic Dempster-Shafer the- ory fusion approaches have demonstrated promising perfor- mance, they do not model the uncertainty appropriately, sug- gesting that further improvement can be achieved. This research seeks to develop a unified framework for multimodal biometric fusion to take advantage of the uncertainty concept of Dempster- Shafer theory, improving the performance of multi-biometric authentication systems. Modeling uncertainty as a function of uncertainty factors affecting the recognition performance of the biometric systems helps to address the uncertainty of the data and the confidence of the fusion outcome. A weighted combination of quality measures and classifiers performance (Equal Error Rate) are proposed to encode the uncertainty concept to improve the fusion. We also found that quality measures contribute unequally to the recognition performance, thus selecting only significant factors and fusing them with a Dempster-Shafer approach to generate an overall quality score play an important role in the success of uncertainty modeling. The proposed approach achieved a competitive performance (approximate 1% EER) in comparison with other Dempster-Shafer based approaches and other conventional fusion approaches.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

基于联合变换相关器的Dempster-Shafer理论计算

提出了用联合变换相关器（JTC）来实现证据理论概率分配函数正交和的光学计算，在理论上对于如何用联合变像相关器实现证据理论分配函数正交和作了详细的讨论，并作了相应的仿真测试，结果显示该方法是可行的。与John Caulfield提出的用声光器件矢量外积实现的正交和计算相比，在该结构中由于采用二进制编码的数值计算，因此其计算精度得到了提高，同时对联合变换相关器输入端二进制编码的数值空间位置的适当调整可以直接得到所需要的证据理论正交和矢量，在处理步骤上得到了简化。

Application of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory to unsupervised classification in multisource remote sensing

The aim of this paper is to show that Dempster-Shafer evidence theory may be successfully applied to unsupervised classification in multisource remote sensing. Dempster-Shafer formulation allows for consideration of unions of classes, and to represent both imprecision and uncertainty, through the definition of belief and plausibility functions. These two functions, derived from mass function, are generally chosen in a supervised way. In this paper, the authors describe an unsupervised method, based on the comparison of monosource classification results, to select the classes necessary for Dempster-Shafer evidence combination and to define their mass functions. Data fusion is then performed, discarding invalid clusters (e.g. corresponding to conflicting information) thank to an iterative process. Unsupervised multisource classification algorithm is applied to MAC-Europe'91 multisensor airborne campaign data collected over the Orgeval French site. Classification results using different combinations of sensors (TMS and AirSAR) or wavelengths (L- and C-bands) are compared. Performance of data fusion is evaluated in terms of identification of land cover types. The best results are obtained when all three data sets are used. Furthermore, some other combinations of data are tried, and their ability to discriminate between the different land cover types is quantified

A comprehensive comparison between generalized incidence calculus and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence.

Dealing with uncertainty problems in intelligent systems has attracted a lot of attention in the AI community. Quite a few techniques have been proposed. Among them, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence (DS theory) has been widely appreciated. In DS theory, Dempster's combination rule plays a major role. However, it has been pointed out that the application domains of the rule are rather limited and the application of the theory sometimes gives unexpected results. We have previously explored the problem with Dempster's combination rule and proposed an alternative combination mechanism in generalized incidence calculus. In this paper we give a comprehensive comparison between generalized incidence calculus and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. We first prove that these two theories have the same ability in representing evidence and combining DS-independent evidence. We then show that the new approach can deal with some dependent situations while Dempster's combination rule cannot. Various examples in the paper show the ways of using generalized incidence calculus in expert systems.

Video Event Recognition by Dempster-Shafer Theory

This paper presents an event recognition framework, based on Dempster-Shafer theory, that combines evidence of events from low-level computer vision analytics. The proposed method employing evidential network modelling of composite events, is able to represent uncertainty of event output from low level video analysis and infer high level events with semantic meaning along with degrees of belief. The method has been evaluated on videos taken of subjects entering and leaving a seated area. This has relevance to a number of transport scenarios, such as onboard buses and trains, and also in train stations and airports. Recognition results of 78% and 100% for four composite events are encouraging.

Context-dependent Combination of Sensor Information in Dempster-Shafer Theory for BDI

There has been much interest in the belief–desire–intention (BDI) agent-based model for developing scalable intelligent systems, e.g. using the AgentSpeak framework. However, reasoning from sensor information in these large-scale systems remains a significant challenge. For example, agents may be faced with information from heterogeneous sources which is uncertain and incomplete, while the sources themselves may be unreliable or conflicting. In order to derive meaningful conclusions, it is important that such information be correctly modelled and combined. In this paper, we choose to model uncertain sensor information in Dempster–Shafer (DS) theory. Unfortunately, as in other uncertainty theories, simple combination strategies in DS theory are often too restrictive (losing valuable information) or too permissive (resulting in ignorance). For this reason, we investigate how a context-dependent strategy originally defined for possibility theory can be adapted to DS theory. In particular, we use the notion of largely partially maximal consistent subsets (LPMCSes) to characterise the context for when to use Dempster’s original rule of combination and for when to resort to an alternative. To guide this process, we identify existing measures of similarity and conflict for finding LPMCSes along with quality of information heuristics to ensure that LPMCSes are formed around high-quality information. We then propose an intelligent sensor model for integrating this information into the AgentSpeak framework which is responsible for applying evidence propagation to construct compatible information, for performing context-dependent combination and for deriving beliefs for revising an agent’s belief base. Finally, we present a power grid scenario inspired by a real-world case study to demonstrate our work.