Demographic changes and unfunded pension systems: financial aspects

Includes bibliography

The impact of Portuguese demographic changes on the demand and supply of blood in the region of Algarve

Dissertação de Mastrado, Gestão de Unidades de Saúde, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Impacts of invasive browsers on demographic rates and forest structure in New Zealand

Background/Question/Methods

Assessing the large scale impact of deer populations on forest structure and composition is important because of their increasing abundance in many temperate forests. Deer are invasive animals and sometimes thought to be responsible for immense damage to New Zealand’s forests. We report demographic changes taking place among 40 widespread indigenous tree species over 20 years, following a period of record deer numbers in the 1950s and a period of extensive hunting and depletion of deer populations during the 1960s and 1970s.

Results/Conclusions

Across a network of 578 plots there was an overall 13% reduction in sapling density of our study species with most remaining constant and a few declining dramatically. The effect of suppressed recruitment when deer populations were high was evident in the small tree size class (30 – 80 mm dbh). Stem density decreased by 15% and species with the greatest annual decreases in small tree density were those which have the highest rates of sapling recovery in exclosures indicating that deer were responsible. Densities of large canopy trees have remained relatively stable. There were imbalances between mortality and recruitment rates for 23 of the 40 species, 7 increasing and 16 in decline. These changes were again linked with sapling recovery in exclosures; species which recovered most rapidly following deer exclusion had the greatest net recruitment deficit across the wider landscape, indicating recruitment suppression by deer as opposed to mortality induced by disturbance and other herbivores. Species are not declining uniformly across all populations and no species are in decline across their entire range. Therefore we predict that with continued deer presence some forests will undergo compositional changes but that none of the species tested will become nationally extinct.

Impacts of invasive browsers on demographic rates and forest structure in New Zealand. Available from: http://www.researchgate.net/publication/267285500_Impacts_of_invasive_browsers_on_demographic_rates_and_forest_structure_in_New_Zealand [accessed Oct 9, 2015].

Changes and inequality in Latin American families

Includes bibliography

Urban transport planning in a context of demographic, social, economic and technological change

Transport planning necessarily takes into account more than just the immediate time-frame. In the case of urban transport, planning needs to come up with solutions in regard to infrastructure which is expensive and may have a useful life extending over several decades. Therefore, planning must take note of economic, technological, social and demographic changes that influence trips undertaken.The purpose of this article is to explore some of the trends that may well be observed in upcoming decades. The article arrives at the conclusion that, in a period of considerable change and uncertainty, failure to take heed of recent trends may result in the construction of infrastructure that is not always the most appropriate and, what is more, that urban development militates against the efficient operation of public transport and, as a result, is likely to jeopardize the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Obesity Trends and Body Mass Index Changes After Starting Antiretroviral Treatment: The Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND The factors that contribute to increasing obesity rates in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive persons and to body mass index (BMI) increase that typically occurs after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) are incompletely characterized. METHODS We describe BMI trends in the entire Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) population and investigate the effects of demographics, HIV-related factors, and ART on BMI change in participants with data available before and 4 years after first starting ART. RESULTS In the SHCS, overweight/obesity prevalence increased from 13% in 1990 (n = 1641) to 38% in 2012 (n = 8150). In the participants starting ART (n = 1601), mean BMI increase was 0.92 kg/m(2) per year (95% confidence interval, .83-1.0) during year 0-1 and 0.31 kg/m(2) per year (0.29-0.34) during years 1-4. In multivariable analyses, annualized BMI change during year 0-1 was associated with older age (0.15 [0.06-0.24] kg/m(2)) and CD4 nadir <199 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P < .001). Annualized BMI change during years 1-4 was associated with CD4 nadir <100 cells/µL compared to nadir >350 (P = .001) and black compared to white ethnicity (0.28 [0.16-0.37] kg/m(2)). Individual ART combinations differed little in their contribution to BMI change. CONCLUSIONS Increasing obesity rates in the SHCS over time occurred at the same time as aging of the SHCS population, demographic changes, earlier ART start, and increasingly widespread ART coverage. Body mass index increase after ART start was typically biphasic, the BMI increase in year 0-1 being as large as the increase in years 1-4 combined. The effect of ART regimen on BMI change was limited.

Towards a professional army. Changes to the structure of the officer cadre and the manning system of the Russian armed forces. OSW Commentary No. 73, 2012-03-28

The structure of the Russian army’s personnel has undergone a major transformation in recent years. The Armed Forces are no longer a downsized continuation of the Soviet-era mass army, but are gradually becoming a de facto professional army in which conscription, now employed on a diminishing scale, will primarily constitute a first step towards a continued professional military career. The cornerstone for the process of professionalisation has been laid by a personnel reform which cut the number of officer posts by nearly half and considerably restricted the recruitment of new officers, thus restoring traditional proportions to the structure of the officer corps. The plans to ultimately implement a manning system based predominantly on contract service are a natural consequence of these changes. The ongoing professionalisation of the Russian Armed Forces should be treated as a conscious effort which is mainly necessitated by global trends: despite the demographic changes taking place, Russia could still maintain an army with a declared strength of one million soldiers, most of them conscripts.

Inequality, the Welfare State, and Demographic Change

This dissertation is a three-part analysis examining how the welfare state in advanced Western democracies has responded to recent demographic changes. Specifically, this dissertation investigates two primary relationships, beginning with the influence of government spending on poverty. I analyze two at-risk populations in particular: immigrants and children of single mothers. Next, attention is turned to the influence of individual and environmental traits on preferences for social spending. I focus specifically on religiosity, religious beliefs and religious identity. I pool data from a number of international macro- and micro-data sources including the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), International Social Survey Program (ISSP), the World Bank Databank, and the OECD Databank. Analyses highlight the power of the welfare state to reduce poverty, but also the effectiveness of specific areas of spending focused on addressing new social risks. While previous research has touted the strength of the welfare state, my analyses highlight the need to consider new social risks and encourage closer attention to how social position affects preferences for the welfare state.

Migrant and refugee children, their families, and early childhood education

One of the effects of globalization is the increasing movement of people around the globe. Transnational migration brings demographic changes that produce challenges for education and social services. While there is a growing body of literature about educational concerns associated with migrant and refugee children, young migrant children are not often included in this research because it concentrates on secondary and primary schooling. In this chapter we review the literature that relates to young migrant and refugee children, their families and early childhood education. More specifically, we synthesize the state of knowledge relating to curriculum, parents and teacher education. Following the analysis of recent research, the chapter concludes with some suggestions for further research, policy makers and practitioners.

Powered two wheelers in a changing world : challenges and opportunities

Powered two wheelers (PTWs) come in diverse forms and are used for a range of purposes in very different parts of the world. In many parts of the world, the forms and uses of PTWs are changing, influenced by social, economic and demographic changes. Most of the challenges associated with PTWs relate to safety, while the majority of the opportunities relate to mobility. The challenges for improving safety relate to the PTW user, other road users, the road environment, the vehicle, data and research, and socio-political dimensions. The relative importance of particular challenges varies between developed and developing countries, and among developing countries according to whether PTWs are largely used for recreation or for transport. PTWs present a range of psychological, transport, economic and environmental opportunities to individuals and societies. The fun and excitement of riding PTWs is a major motivator for their purchase and use for recreational purposes, both off-road and on-road. The transport and economic advantages to the individual also need to be considered. At a societal level, research has examined the potential for increasing PTW volumes to reduce fossil fuel use and traffic congestion in busy cities. The future of PTWs may differ greatly between countries and environmental and technological changes are leading to an evolution in the form of PTWs to encompass new modes of personal transportation.

The formation of, and change in, the psychological contracts of graduates entering the Queensland public sector

The workplace is evolving and the predicted impact of demographic changes (Salt, 2009; Taylor, 2005) has seen organisations focus on strategic workforce planning. As part of this, many organisations have established or expanded formalised graduate programs to attract graduates and transition them effectively into organisations (McDermott, Mangan, & O'Connor, 2005; Terjesen, Freeman, & Vinnicombe, 2007). The workplace context is also argued to be changing because of the divergence in preferences and priorities across the different generations in the workplace - a topic which is prolific in the popular culture media but is yet to be fully developed in the academic literature (Jorgenson, 2003). The public sector recruits large numbers of graduates and maintains well established graduate programs. Like the workplace context, the public sector is seen to be undergoing a transition to more closely align its practices and processes with that of the private sector (Haynes & Melville Jones, 1999; N. Preston, 1995). Consequently, questions have been raised as to how new workforce entrants see the public sector and its associated attractiveness as an employment option. This research draws together these issues and reviews the formation of, and change in, the psychological contracts of graduates across ten Queensland public sector graduate programs. To understand the employment relationship, the theories of psychological contract and public service motivation are utilised. Specifically, this research focuses on graduates' and managers' expectations over time, the organisational perspective of the employment relationship and how ideology influences graduates' psychological contract. A longitudinal mixed method design, involving individual interviews and surveys, is employed along with significant researcher-practitioner collaboration throughout the research process. A number of important qualitative and quantitative findings arose from this study and there was strong triangulation between results from the two methods. Prior to starting with the organisation, graduates found it difficult to articulate their expectations; however, organisational experience rapidly brought these to the fore. Of the expectations that became salient, most centred on their relationship with their supervisor. Without experience and quality information on which to base their expectations, graduates tended to over-rely on sectoral stereotypes which negatively impacted their psychological contracts. Socialisation only limited affected graduates' psychological contracts and public service motivation. The graduate survey, measured thrice throughout the first 12 months of the graduate program, revealed that the psychological contract and public service motivation results followed a similar trajectory of beginning at mediocre levels, declining between times one and two and increasing between times two and three (although this is not back to original levels). Graduates attributed these to a number of sectoral, organisational, team, supervisory and individual factors. On a theoretical level, this research provides support for the notion of ideology within the psychological contract although it raises some important questions about how it is conceptualised. Additionally, support is given for the manager to be seen as the primary organisational counterpart to the employee in future theoretical and practical work. The research also argues to extend current notions of time within the psychological contract as this seems to be the most divergent and combustible issue across the generations in terms of how the workplace is perceived. A number of practical implications also transpire from the study and the collaborative foundation was highly successful. It is anticipated that this research will make a meaningful contribution to both the theory and practice of the employment relationship with particular regard to graduates entering the public sector.

Putting paid to prescribed roles : a new era for Australian women and philanthropy

In redefining our understanding of women’s roles in contemporary Australian philanthropy, the impact of major contextual and demographic changes, as well as changes in women’s roles, responsibilities and opportunities need to be considered. Although academic study of philanthropy and the wider third sector is increasing in Australia, literature searches have revealed little current data on the giving patterns and philanthropic drivers for contemporary Australian women, particularly emerging cohorts (one ABS survey looks at giving patterns – ABS, 2000b: 32). In contrast, there is increasing interest in the US, where it is acknowledged that more women are becoming independent holders of wealth; and that interested donors have specific needs, desires and motivations in terms of knowledge, power, marketing and response to their philanthropy (see for example, Grace 2000; McCarthy 2001; Women’s Philanthropy Institute 2002). These varied demographic, social and economic drivers, which could also be expected to encourage new cohorts of Australian women to give, will be examined within our definition of women in philanthropy, and a brief history of women’s philanthropy in Australia, in order to inform future in-depth analyses of Australian women donors.

Gender and other determinants of trust and reciprocity in an experimental labour market amongst Chinese students

Due to economic and demographic changes highly educated women play an important role on the Chinese labour market. Gender has been shown to be an important characteristic that influences behaviour in economic experiments, as have, to a lesser degree, academic major, age and income. We provide a study looking at trust and reciprocity and their determinants in a labour market laboratory experiment. Our experimental data is based on two games, the Gift Exchange Game (GEG) and a variant of this game (the Wage Promising Game, WPG) where the employer's wage offer is non-binding and the employer can choose the wage freely after observing the workers effort. We and that women are less trusting and reciprocal than men in the GEG while this cannot be found in the WPG. Letting participants play the GEG and the WPG, allows us to disentangle reciprocal and risk attitudes. While in the employer role, it seems to be that risk attitude is the main factor, this is not confirmed analysing decisions in the worker role.

Residential dissonance and mode choice

Residential dissonance refers to the mismatch in land-use patterns between individuals’ preferred residential neighbourhood type and the type of neighbourhood in which they currently reside. Current knowledge regarding the impact of residential dissonance is limited to short-term travel behaviours in urban vs. suburban, and rural vs. urban areas. Although the prevailing view is that dissonants adjust their orientation and lifestyle around their surrounding land use over time, empirical evidence is lacking to support this proposition. This research identifies both short-term mode choice behaviour and medium-term mode shift behaviour of dissonants in transit oriented development (TODs) vs. non-TOD areas in Brisbane, Australia. Natural groupings of neighbourhood profiles (e.g. residential density, land use diversity, intersection density, cul-de-sac density, and public transport accessibility levels) of 3957 individuals were identified as living either in a TOD (510 individuals) or non-TOD (3447 individuals) areas in Brisbane using the TwoStep cluster analysis technique. Levels of dissonance were measured based on a factor analysis of 16 items representing the travel attitudes/preferences of individuals. Two multinomial logistic (MNL) regression models were estimated to understand mode choice behaviour of (1) TOD dissonants, and (2) non-TOD dissonants in 2009, controlling for socio-demographics and environmental characteristics. Two additional MNL regression models were estimated to investigate mode shift behaviour of (3) TOD dissonants, and (4) non-TOD dissonants between 2009 and 2011, also controlling for socio-demographic, changes in socio-demographic, and built environmental factors. The findings suggest that travel preference is relatively more influential in transport mode choice decisions compared with built environment features. Little behavioural evidence was found to support the adjustment of a dissonant orientation toward a particular land use feature and mode accessibility they represent (e.g. a modal shift to greater use of the car for non-TOD dissonants). TOD policies should focus on reducing the level of dissonance in TODs in order to enhance transit ridership.