Spatial load forecasting using a demand propagation approach

A method for spatial electric load forecasting using multi-agent systems, especially suited to simulate the local effect of special loads in distribution systems is presented. The method based on multi-agent systems uses two kinds of agents: reactive and proactive. The reactive agents represent each sub-zone in the service zone, characterizing each one with their corresponding load level, represented in a real number, and their relationships with other sub-zones represented in development probabilities. The proactive agent carry the new load expected to be allocated because of the new special load, this agent distribute the new load in a propagation pattern. The results are presented with maps of future expected load levels in the service zone. The method is tested with data from a mid-size city real distribution system, simulating the effect of a load with attraction and repulsion attributes. The method presents good results and performance. © 2011 IEEE.

Chemical sterilization in in vitro propagation of Arundina bambusifolia Lindl. and Epidendrum ibaguense Kunth

There is a great demand for simpler and less costly laboratory techniques and for more accessible procedures for orchid breeders who do not have the necessary theoretical basis to use the traditional seed and clone production methods of orchids in vitro. The aim of this study was to assess the use of sodium hypochlorite (NaClO) as a decontaminant in the process of inoculating adult orchid explants of Arundina bambusifolia and Epidendrum ibaguenses. Solutions of NaClO (1.200, 2.400, 3.600, 4.800 and 6.000 mg L-1 - equivalent to 50, 100, 150, 200 and 250 mL L-1 of commercial bleach - CB) were sprayed on the explants (1.0 mL) and the culture medium (GB5), in the presence or absence of activated charcoal (2 g L-1). The explants used were nodal segments of field-grown adult plants. The procedures for inoculating the explants were conducted outside the laminar flow chamber (LFC), except for the control treatment (autoclaved medium and explant inoculation inside the LFC). The best results for fresh weight yield, height and number of shoots were obtained using NaClO in solution at 1.200 mg L-1 (equivalent to 50 mL L-1 commercial bleach) with activated charcoal in the culture medium. Fresh weight figures were 1.10 g/jar for Arundina bambusifolia and 0.16 g/jar for Epidendrum ibaguenses. Spraying the NaClO solutions controls the contamination of the culture medium already inoculated with the explants.

Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Using min-sum loopy belief propagation for decentralised supply chain formation

Modern business trends such as agile manufacturing and virtual corporations require high levels of flexibility and responsiveness to consumer demand, and require the ability to quickly and efficiently select trading partners. Automated computational techniques for supply chain formation have the potential to provide significant advantages in terms of speed and efficiency over the traditional manual approach to partner selection. Automated supply chain formation is the process of determining the participants within a supply chain and the terms of the exchanges made between these participants. In this thesis we present an automated technique for supply chain formation based upon the min-sum loopy belief propagation algorithm (LBP). LBP is a decentralised and distributed message-passing algorithm which allows participants to share their beliefs about the optimal structure of the supply chain based upon their costs, capabilities and requirements. We propose a novel framework for the application of LBP to the existing state-of-the-art case of the decentralised supply chain formation problem, and extend this framework to allow for application to further novel and established problem cases. Specifically, the contributions made by this thesis are: • A novel framework to allow for the application of LBP to the decentralised supply chain formation scenario investigated using the current state-of-the-art approach. Our experimental analysis indicates that LBP is able to match or outperform this approach for the vast majority of problem instances tested. • A new solution goal for supply chain formation in which economically motivated producers aim to maximise their profits by intelligently altering their profit margins. We propose a rational pricing strategy that allows producers to earn significantly greater profits than a comparable LBP-based profitmaking approach. • An LBP-based framework which allows the algorithm to be used to solve supply chain formation problems in which goods are exchanged in multiple units, a first for a fully decentralised technique. As well as multiple-unit exchanges, we also model in this scenario realistic constraints such as factory capacities and input-to-output ratios. LBP continues to be able to match or outperform an extended version of the existing state-of-the-art approach in this scenario. • Introduction of a dynamic supply chain formation scenario in which participants are able to alter their properties or to enter or leave the process at any time. Our results suggest that LBP is able to deal easily with individual occurences of these alterations and that performance degrades gracefully when they occur in larger numbers.

Dynamical models for computer viruses propagation

Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network. Copyright (c) 2008 J. R. C. Piqueira and F. B. Cesar. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Rumor Propagation Model: An Equilibrium Study

Compartmental epidemiological models have been developed since the 1920s and successfully applied to study the propagation of infectious diseases. Besides, due to their structure, in the 1960s an interesting version of these models was developed to clarify some aspects of rumor propagation, considering that spreading an infectious disease or disseminating information is analogous phenomena. Here, in an analogy with the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) epidemiological model, the ISS (Ignorant-Spreader-Stifler) rumor spreading model is studied. By using concepts from the Dynamical Systems Theory, stability of equilibrium points is established, according to propagation parameters and initial conditions. Some numerical experiments are conducted in order to validate the model.

Generalized Sznajd model for opinion propagation

In the last decade the Sznajd model has been successfully employed in modeling some properties and scale features of both proportional and majority elections. We propose a version of the Sznajd model with a generalized bounded confidence rule-a rule that limits the convincing capability of agents and that is essential to allow coexistence of opinions in the stationary state. With an appropriate choice of parameters it can be reduced to previous models. We solved this model both in a mean-field approach (for an arbitrary number of opinions) and numerically in a Barabaacutesi-Albert network (for three and four opinions), studying the transient and the possible stationary states. We built the phase portrait for the special cases of three and four opinions, defining the attractors and their basins of attraction. Through this analysis, we were able to understand and explain discrepancies between mean-field and simulation results obtained in previous works for the usual Sznajd model with bounded confidence and three opinions. Both the dynamical system approach and our generalized bounded confidence rule are quite general and we think it can be useful to the understanding of other similar models.

The rating of perceived exertion predicts intermittent vertical jump demand and performance

The aims of this study were (a) to assess the ability of the rating of perceived exertion (RPE) to predict performance (i.e. number of vertical jumps performed to a fixed jump height) of an intermittent vertical jump exercise, and (b) to determine the ability of RPE to describe the physiological demand of such exercise. Eight healthy men performed intermittent vertical jumps with rest periods of 4, 5, and 6s until fatigue. Heart rate and RPE were recorded every five jumps throughout the sessions. The number of vertical jumps performed was also recorded. Random coefficient growth curve analysis identified relationships between the number of vertical jumps and both RPE and heart rate for which there were similar slopes. In addition, there were no differences between individual slopes and the mean slope for either RPE or heart rate. Moreover, RPE and number of jumps were highly correlated throughout all sessions (r=0.97-0.99; P0.001), as were RPE and heart rate (r=0.93-0.97; P0.001). The findings suggest that RPE can both predict the performance of intermittent vertical jump exercise and describe the physiological demands of such exercise.

Coupled reliability and boundary element model for probabilistic fatigue life assessment in mixed mode crack propagation

Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Non-linear boundary element formulation with tangent operator to analyse crack propagation in quasi-brittle materials

This work deals with analysis of cracked structures using BEM. Two formulations to analyse the crack growth process in quasi-brittle materials are discussed. They are based on the dual formulation of BEM where two different integral equations are employed along the opposite sides of the crack surface. The first presented formulation uses the concept of constant operator, in which the corrections of the nonlinear process are made only by applying appropriate tractions along the crack surfaces. The second presented BEM formulation to analyse crack growth problems is an implicit technique based on the use of a consistent tangent operator. This formulation is accurate, stable and always requires much less iterations to reach the equilibrium within a given load increment in comparison with the classical approach. Comparison examples of classical problem of crack growth are shown to illustrate the performance of the two formulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple random crack propagation using a boundary element formulation

This paper proposes a boundary element method (BEM) model that is used for the analysis of multiple random crack growth by considering linear elastic fracture mechanics problems and structures subjected to fatigue. The formulation presented in this paper is based on the dual boundary element method, in which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. This technique avoids singularities of the resulting algebraic system of equations, despite the fact that the collocation points coincide for the two opposite crack faces. In fracture mechanics analyses, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate stress intensity factors. The maximum circumferential stress theory is used to evaluate the propagation angle and the effective stress intensity factor. The fatigue model uses Paris` law to predict structural life. Examples of simple and multi-fractured structures loaded until rupture are considered. These analyses demonstrate the robustness of the proposed model. In addition, the results indicate that this formulation is accurate and can model localisation and coalescence phenomena. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Defining Nutrient and Biochemical Oxygen Demand Baselines for Tropical Rivers and Streams in So Paulo State (Brazil): A Comparison Between Reference and Impacted Sites

Determining reference concentrations in rivers and streams is an important tool for environmental management. Reference conditions for eutrophication-related water variables are unavailable for Brazilian freshwaters. We aimed to establish reference baselines for So Paulo State tropical rivers and streams for total phosphorus (TP) and nitrogen (TN), nitrogen-ammonia (NH(4) (+)) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) through the best professional judgment and the trisection methods. Data from 319 sites monitored by the So Paulo State Environmental Company (2005 to 2009) and from the 22 Water Resources Management Units in So Paulo State were assessed (N = 27,131). We verified that data from different management units dominated by similar land cover could be analyzed together (Analysis of Variance, P = 0.504). Cumulative frequency diagrams showed that industrialized management units were characterized by the worst water quality (e.g. average TP of 0.51 mg/L), followed by agricultural watersheds. TN and NH(4) (+) were associated with urban percentages and population density (Spearman Rank Correlation Test, P < 0.05). Best professional judgment and trisection (median of lower third of all sites) methods for determining reference concentrations showed agreement: 0.03 & 0.04 mg/L (TP), 0.31 & 0.34 mg/L (TN), 0.06 & 0.10 mg-N/L (NH(4) (+)) and 2 & 2 mg/L (BOD), respectively. Our reference concentrations were similar to TP and TN reference values proposed for temperate water bodies. These baselines can help with water management in So Paulo State, as well as providing some of the first such information for tropical ecosystems.

`Swingle` citrumelo propagation by cuttings for citrus nursery tree production or inarching

`Swingle` citrumelo [Citrus paradisi MacFaden x Poncirus trifoliata (L.) Raf.] has been extensively used as a rootstock in several citrus growing regions of the World, including Southern Brazil where `Rangpur` lime (Citrus limonia Osbeck) is still the predominant variety despite being affected by several important pathogens. in this case, `Swingle` citrumelo is used to produce nursery trees to establish new orchards or to be inarched in adult and healthy groves in order to change the rootstock. We report herein a system to produce trees on `Swingle` citrumelo more rapidly by budding onto non-rooted cuttings, as well as assessing potential to rapidly multiply `Swingle` through rooting of non-budded cuttings. Therefore, two potential products are described: budded trees and rooted rootstock cuttings. `Valencia` sweet orange [Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck] was budded at different heights on cuttings derived from eight-month old rootstocks. Grafted and additional non-budded cuttings were then treated with indole-3-butyric acid (500 mg L(-1)) or left untreated before rooting. Three types of cuttings were evaluated: softwood, semi-hardwood and hardwood. The use of nursery trees derived from pre-budded hardwood cuttings of `Swingle` citrumelo is an alternative grafting method on this cultivar. Softwood cuttings with one leaf pair were considered the most adequate material for rapid multiplication of `Swingle` citrumelo by cutting. This could be particularly useful for inarching production or conventional budding after transplant of cutting-derived rootstocks. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stress corrosion crack propagation in AerMet 100

Fracture mechanics tests were carried out for AerMet 100 in distilled water and NaCl (3.5 and 35 gl(-1)). The initiation period at higher values of the stress intensity factor indicated that load application in the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) environment is a necessary but not sufficient factor for SCC and that time is needed for some other factor (e.g., the local hydrogen concentration) to reach an appropriate value. The threshold stress intensity factor, K-ISSC, was found to increase with decreasing NaCl concentration. The plateau stress corrosion crack velocity was 2 x 10(-8) ms(-1) for NaCl (3.5 and 35 gl(-1)). The fracture mode was transgranular with small areas of an intergranular nature. (C) 1998 Chapman & Hall.

Postural activity of the diaphragm is reduced in humans when respiratory demand increases

1. Respiratory activity of the diaphragm and other respiratory muscles is normally co-ordinated with their other functions, such as for postural control of the trunk when the limbs move. The integration may occur by summation of two inputs at the respiratory motoneurons. The present study investigated whether postural activity of the diaphragm changed when respiratory drive increased with hypercapnoea. 2. Electromyographic (EMG) recordings of the diaphragm and other trunk muscles were made with intramuscular electrodes in 13 healthy volunteers. Under control conditions and while breathing through increased dead-space,subjects made rapid repetitive arm movements to disturb the stability of the spine for four periods each lasting 10 s, separated by 50 s. 3. End-tidal CO2, and ventilation increased for the first 60-120 s of the trial then reached a plateau. During rapid arm movement at the start of dead-space breathing, diaphragm EMG became tonic with superimposed modulation at the frequencies of respiration and arm movement. However, when the arm was moved after 60 s of hypercapnoea, the tonic diaphragm EMG during expiration and the phasic activity with arm movement were reduced or absent. Similar changes occurred for the expiratory muscle transversus abdominis, but not for the erector spinae. The mean amplitude of intra-abdominal pressure and the phasic changes with arm movement were reduced after 60 s of hypercapnoea. 4. The present data suggest that increased central respiratory drive may attenuate the postural commands reaching motoneurons. This attenuation can affect the key inspiratory and expiratory muscles and is likely to be co-ordinated at a pre-motoneuronal site.