Viewing the future

As many industrial organizations have learned to apply roadmapping successfully, they have also learned that it is "roadmapping" rather than "the roadmap" that generates value. This two-part special report has focused primarily on product and technology roadmapping in industry. The first part (RTM, March-April 2003, pp. 26-59) examined the workings of the process at Lucent Technologies, Rockwell Automation, the pharmaceutical/biotechnology industry, and United Kingdom-based Domino Printing Sciences. This second part examines roadmapping in the UK, Motorola, General Motors, the services sector, and in cases that demand major investment decisions under conditions of volatility.

Elasticity of substitution between capital and labor: a panel data approach

This paper estimates the elasticity of substitution of an aggregate production function. The estimating equation is derived from the steady state of a neoclassical growth model. The data comes from the PWT in which different countries face different relative prices of the investment good and exhibit different investment-output ratios. Then, using this variation we estimate the elasticity of substitution. The novelty of our approach is that we use dynamic panel data techniques, which allow us to distinguish between the short and the long run elasticity and handle a host of econometric and substantive issues. In particular we accommodate the possibility that different countries have different total factor productivities and other country specific effects and that such effects are correlated with the regressors. We also accommodate the possibility that the regressors are correlated with the error terms and that shocks to regressors are manifested in future periods. Taking all this into account our estimation resuIts suggest that the Iong run eIasticity of substitution is 0.7, which is Iower than the eIasticity that had been used in previous macro-deveIopment exercises. We show that this lower eIasticity reinforces the power of the neoclassical mo deI to expIain income differences across countries as coming from differential distortions.

Does Uncertainty Affect Investment and Labor Demand?

This paper analyzes the effect of uncertainty on investment and labor demand for Finnish firms during the time period 1987 – 2000. Utilizing a stock return based measure of uncertainty decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, the results reveal that idiosyncratic uncertainty significantly reduces both investment and labor demand. Idiosyncratic uncertainty seems to influence investment in the current period, whereas the depressing effect on labor demand appears with a one-year lag. The results provide support that the depressing effect of idiosyncratic uncertainty on investment is stronger for small firms in comparison to large firms. Some evidence is reported regarding differential effects of uncertainty on labor demand conditional on firm characteristics. Most importantly, the depressing effect of lagged idiosyncratic uncertainty on labor demand tends to be stronger for diversified firms compared with focused firms.

Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited.

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Investment Under Demand Uncertainty: the Newsboy Problem Revisited.

In this article we study the effect of uncertainty on an entrepreneur who must choose the capacity of his business before knowing the demand for his product. The unit profit of operation is known with certainty but there is no flexibility in our one-period framework. We show how the introduction of global uncertainty reduces the investment of the risk neutral entrepreneur and, even more, that the risk averse one. We also show how marginal increases in risk reduce the optimal capacity of both the risk neutral and the risk averse entrepreneur, without any restriction on the concave utility function and with limited restrictions on the definition of a mean preserving spread. These general results are explained by the fact that the newsboy has a piecewise-linear, and concave, monetary payoff witha kink endogenously determined at the level of optimal capacity. Our results are compared with those in the two literatures on price uncertainty and demand uncertainty, and particularly, with the recent contributions of Eeckhoudt, Gollier and Schlesinger (1991, 1995).

Stimulus of demand, investment and acceleration of the rate of growth

Includes bibliography

Productivity and labour demand effects of inward and outward foreign direct investment on UK industry

We relate the technological and factor price determinants of inward and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) to its potential productivity and labour market effects on both host and home economies. This allows us to distinguish clearly between technology-sourcing and technologyexploiting FDI, and to identify FDI that is linked to labour cost differentials. We then empirically examine the effects of different types of FDI into and out of the UK on domestic (i.e. UK) productivity and on the demand for skilled and unskilled labour at the industry level.

Re-framing infrastructure investment decision-making processes : a preliminary scoping study for urban flood risk management in Jakarta, Indonesia

Jakarta, Indonesia’s chronic housing shortage poses multiple challenges for contemporary policy-makers. While it may be in the city’s interest to increase the availability of housing, there is limited land to do so. Market pressures, in tandem with government’s desire for housing availability, demand consideration of even marginal lands, such as those within floodplains, for development. Increasingly, planning for a flood resilient Jakarta is complicated by a number of factors, including: the city is highly urbanized and land use data is limited; flood management is technically complex, creating potential barriers to engagement for both decision-makers and the public; inherent uncertainty exists throughout modelling efforts, central to management; and risk and liability for infrastructure investments is unclear. These obstacles require localized watershed-level participatory planning to address risks of flooding where possible and reduce the likelihood that informal settlements occur in areas of extreme risk. This paper presents a preliminary scoping study for determination of an effective participatory planning method to encourage more resilient development. First, the scoping study provides background relevant to the challenges faced in planning for contemporary Jakarta. Second, the study examines the current use of decision-support tools, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS), in planning for Jakarta. Existing capacity in the use of GIS allows for consideration of the use of an emerging method of community consultation - Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) support systems infused with geospatial information - to aid in engagement with the public and improve decision-making outcomes. While these methods have been used in Australia to promote stakeholder engagement in urban intensification, the planned research will be an early introduction of the method to Indonesia. As a consequence of this intervention, it is expected that planning activities will result in a more resilient city, capable of engaging with disaster risk management in a more effective manner.

Improved residential electricity demand management through analysis of the customer perspective

Peak electricity demand requires substantial investment to update transmission, distribution and generation infrastructure. A successful community peak demand reduction project was examined to identify residential consumer motivational and contextual factors involved in their decision to adopt/not adopt interventions. Energy professionals actively worked to achieve community 'peer' membership and by becoming a trusted information source, facilitated voluntary home energy assessment requests from over 80% of the residential community. By combining and tailoring interventions to the specific needs and motivations of individual householders and the community, interventions promoting energy conservation and efficiency can be effective in achieving sustained reduction in peak demand.

Governing child care in neoliberal times: Discursive constructions of children as economic units and early childhood educators as investment brokers

At any given time in the field of early childhood, there are discourses at play, producing images of children, and these ways of seeing children might be competing, colliding and/or complementing each other. It is fairly widely accepted that in many countries there are versions of dominant discourses that shape and are shaped by current practices in the field of early childhood. These include (1) romantic notions of children running free and connecting with nature and (2) the ‘Bart Simpson’ version of the naughty, cute or savage child, untamed and in need of civilising. These are far from being the only two discursive constructions of children present in current policies and practices. If early childhood professionals are to be active in shaping and implementing policies that affect their work and workforce, it is important that they are aware of the forces at play. In this article, we point to another powerful discourse at play in the Australian context of early childhood education, the image of children as economic units: investments in the future. We show how a ‘moment of arising’ in contemporary policy contexts, dominated by neoliberal principles of reform and competition, has charged early childhood educators in Australia with the duties of a ‘broker’, ensuring that young children are worth the investment. In this article, we begin with (1) a key policy document in early childhood education in Australia and examine the discursive affordances which shape the document. Next, (2) we pinpoint the shifts in how the work of child care is perceived by interrogating this key policy document through a methodology of discursive analysis. We then turn attention (3) to the work of this policy document along with other discourses which directly affect images of children and the shaping role these have on the work of educators. We conclude with (4) a consideration of how the work of early childhood professionals has come to be shaped by this economic discourse, and how they are being required to both work within the policy imperatives and likely to resist this new demand of them.

Investment prospects in inshore trawling in Nigeria

Commercial trawling for finfish in Nigeria's inshore water is a recent activity. Intensive industrial trawling started when the Federal Government distributed trawlers to viable fishermen cooperatives during the Third National Development Plan Period (1975-80). Hitherto, industrial fisheries development in the country focused on the assessment of the potential fish stock on Nigeria's continental shelf and measures to increase artisanal production. As a result of increasing demand for fish and shortage of foreign exchange to import fish, measures to increase fish supply leaned towards industrial exploitation of the fisheries potentials of Nigeria's continental shelf. Based on this background, this paper examines the investment prospects of trawling for fish in inshore waters. The fisheries potentials of the inshore zone of Nigeria are identified. Catch efficiency and profitability of inshore trawling are estimated. Measures that can safeguard the longterm interest of the trawling industry are recommended

Investment opportunity in aquarium technology. Export marketing of tropical aquarium fishes

A brief account is given of the demand for ornamental fish, providing also estimates of world trade volume. The major importing countries are the USA, Japan, Germany, the UK and the Netherlands. Present supply patterns are outlined; although Nigeria has vast natural resources of tropical aquatic life and the right climate for breeding, current exports are estimated at only 5% of the total potential. Recommendations for the promotion of exports of tropical aquarium fish in Nigeria are included

Investment prospects of fish farming in the Jos-Plateau, Nigeria

The investment prospects of fish farming in the Jos-Plateau, Nigeria, strategically located in about the centre of the country are discussed with special reference to its numerous abandoned mine lakes and the tripartite role of government, universities and individuals. In the Jos-Plateau, about 17.0 km super(2) is covered by these disused mine lakes, making up about 20-30% of the area covered. In such enterprise, problems commonly encountered, like population growth and government planning policies, fish demand and supply, manpower, feed and seed availability, preservation, processing and marketing are discussed. Inspite of these, prospects still abound with regards to land-use of these numerous disused mine lakes and feed availability based on the principles of using both industrial and farm by-products for fish culture, processing and marketing. These potentials, if properly harnessed, will help to supplement the protein insufficiency in the diet of the populace. In this regard, proposals on the economics of production and sales, strategies for achieving these development goals, cost-benefit analysis and their implications in further development of fish culture are discussed