A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lepidopteran larva consumption of soybean foliage: basis for developing multiple-species economic thresholds for pest management decisions

BACKGROUND: Defoliation by Anticarsia gemmatalis (Hubner), Pseudoplusia includens (Walker), Spodoptera eridania (Cramer), S. cosmioides (Walker) and S. frugiperda (JE Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) was evaluated in four soybean genotypes. A multiple-species economic threshold (ET), based upon the species` feeding capacity, is proposed with the aim of improving growers` management decisions on when to initiate control measures for the species complex. RESULTS: Consumption by A. gemmatalis, S. cosmioides or S. eridania on different genotypes was similar. The highest consumption of P. includens was 92.7 cm(2) on Codetec 219RR; that of S. frugiperda was 118 cm(2) on Codetec 219RR and 115.1 cm(2) on MSoy 8787RR. The insect injury equivalent for S. cosmoides, calculated on the basis of insect consumption, was double the standard consumption by A. gemmatalis, and statistically different from the other species tested, which were similar to each other. CONCLUSIONS: As S. cosmioides always defoliated nearly twice the leaf area of the other species, the injury equivalent would be 2 for this lepidopteran species and 1 for the other species. The recommended multiple-species ET to trigger the beginning of insect control would then be 20 insect equivalents per linear metre. (C) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry

Using household survey data to inform policy decisions regarding the delivery of evidence-based parenting interventions.

Background: This study used household survey data on the prevalence of child, parent and family variables to establish potential targets for a population-level intervention to strengthen parenting skills in the community. The goals of the intervention include decreasing child conduct problems, increasing parental self-efficacy, use of positive parenting strategies, decreasing coercive parenting and increasing help-seeking, social support and participation in positive parenting programmes. Methods: A total of 4010 parents with a child under the age of 12 years completed a statewide telephone survey on parenting. Results: One in three parents reported that their child had a behavioural or emotional problem in the previous 6 months. Furthermore, 9% of children aged 2–12 years meet criteria for oppositional defiant disorder. Parents who reported their child's behaviour to be difficult were more likely to perceive parenting as a negative experience (i.e. demanding, stressful and depressing). Parents with greatest difficulties were mothers without partners and who had low levels of confidence in their parenting roles. About 20% of parents reported being stressed and 5% reported being depressed in the 2 weeks prior to the survey. Parents with personal adjustment problems had lower levels of parenting confidence and their child was more difficult to manage. Only one in four parents had participated in a parent education programme. Conclusions: Implications for the setting of population-level goals and targets for strengthening parenting skills are discussed.

Auditory lexical decisions in children with specific language impairment

This study examined spoken-word recognition in children with specific language impairment (SLI) and normally developing children matched separately for age and receptive language ability. Accuracy and reaction times on an auditory lexical decision task were compared. Children with SLI were less accurate than both control groups. Two subgroups of children with SLI, distinguished by performance accuracy only, were identified. One group performed within normal limits, while a second group was significantly less accurate. Children with SLI were not slower than the age-matched controls or language-matched controls. Further, the time taken to detect an auditory signal, make a decision, or initiate a verbal response did not account for the differences between the groups. The findings are interpreted as evidence for language-appropriate processing skills acting upon imprecise or underspecified stored representations.

Multicollinearity and financial constraint in investment decisions: a Bayesian generalized ridge regression

This paper addresses the investment decisions considering the presence of financial constraints of 373 large Brazilian firms from 1997 to 2004, using panel data. A Bayesian econometric model was used considering ridge regression for multicollinearity problems among the variables in the model. Prior distributions are assumed for the parameters, classifying the model into random or fixed effects. We used a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters, considering normal and Student t distributions for the error and assumed that the initial values for the lagged dependent variable are not fixed, but generated by a random process. The recursive predictive density criterion was used for model comparisons. Twenty models were tested and the results indicated that multicollinearity does influence the value of the estimated parameters. Controlling for capital intensity, financial constraints are found to be more important for capital-intensive firms, probably due to their lower profitability indexes, higher fixed costs and higher degree of property diversification.

The impact of expert testimony on jurors' decisions: Gender of the expert and testimony complexity

The present study investigated whether people used the gender of an expert witness as a heuristic cue to evaluate the evidence presented by the expert. Specifically, the gender of the expert and the complexity of the expert's testimony (low, high) were varied systematically within a simulated civil trial involving an antitrust price-fixing agreement. It was expected that the male expert would be more persuasive than the female expert, but only when the testimony presented was complex. As predicted, this interaction was revealed across a range of dependent measures. Somewhat unexpected was the finding of a female expert advantage in the low-complexity condition. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Multifocal Renal Allograft Biopsy: Impact on Therapeutic Decisions

Objective. There are no data to support the suggestion that samples removed from one segment of the transplanted kidney are representative of the whole graft. The aim of this study was to compare the histological differences between biopsies obtained from different portions of the renal allograft and their impact on treatment recommendations. Patients and Methods. Two hundred percutaneous biopsies were performed on kidney allografts and samples were collected from the upper and lower poles (100 kidneys). All samples were randomized and blindly reviewed. We obtained the discordance rates between the poles for the grading of acute rejection and for the diagnosis of nephrotoxicity due to immunosuppression. We also checked if the differences found were sufficient to call for different clinical recommendations. These values were compared with the intrapathologist variation rates. Results. In 70 kidneys adequate sampling was obtained from both poles. The diagnosis of acute rejection were made in 1.7. The discordance rate between the upper and lower poles was 82.3% (kappa = 0.34), higher than the intrapathologist variation (P =.002). Nephrotoxicity was found in 14 kidneys. The discordance rate between the upper and lower poles was 28.6% (kappa = 0.88), with no difference compared with the intrapathologist variation. In 14 of the 70 kidneys (25.7%), discordances between poles had impact on clinical recommendations, most of these cases due to different gradings of acute rejection (78%). This number was higher than the intrapathologist variation (P =.04). Conclusions. The histopathological changes in the kidney allograft are not always homogeneous. This heterogeneity may affect the therapeutic recommendations.

Factors affecting management decisions in rectal cancer in clinical practice: results from a national survey

Management of rectal cancer has become increasingly complex and a multidisciplinary approach is considered of key importance for improving outcomes. A national survey among specialists involved in this multidisciplinary setting was performed. A web-based survey containing 11 questions regarding rectal cancer management was sent to surgeons and medical oncologists registered by their corresponding societies as members. Statistical analysis was performed using the chi-square and Fisher`s exact tests for all categorical variables according to response to individual questions. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox`s logistic regression. Overall, 418 email recipients responded the survey. Local staging was performed without either magnetic resonance imaging or endorectal ultrasound by 64% of responders. Seventy-two percent considered that final management decision should be made after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy. Additionally, 46% considered that an alternative procedure (local excision or observation) was appropriate in a patient with a complete clinical response. Colorectal surgeons were more frequently in favor of longer intervals after completion of chemoradiation therapy (P = 0.001) and of alternative management procedures after a complete clinical response (P = 0.02). After multivariate analysis, the choice of a watch and wait approach after a complete clinical response following neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy was significantly more frequent among surgeons (OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.8-7.1). Surgeons seem to be more in favor of tailoring management of rectal cancer according to tumor response after neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy, with longer intervals after chemoradiation therapy, decisions about treatment strategy being made after chemoradiation therapy instead of before, and the use of alternative surgical procedures after a complete clinical response following neoadjuvant therapy.

Negative Anti-C1q Antibody Titers May Influence Therapeutic Decisions and Reduce the Number of Renal Biopsies in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

In a cross-sectional study involving 62 patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), we found that patients with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis (LN) had higher titers of anti-C1q antibodies than active SLE without nephritis patients. Anti-C1q was associated with a negative predictive value of 94.59%, a positive predictive value of 52%, a sensitivity of 86.66% and a specificity of 74.47% for the diagnosis of LN. We conclude that high titers of anti-C1q antibodies are strongly associated with the presence of active LN, and the negative predictive value of this test for diagnosing LN is very high; therefore, it can influence therapeutic decisions and reduce the number of renal biopsies in patients with SLE. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Comparison of visual inspection, radiographic examination, laser fluorescence and their combinations on treatment decisions for occlusal surfaces

Purpose: To compare visual inspection (VI), radiographic examination (RX) and the laser fluorescence device DIAGNOdent (L), as well as their combinations in vitro regarding treatment decisions for occlusal surfaces. Methods: 72 extracted human permanent teeth (molars and premolars) were used. Treatment decisions were recorded by three calibrated examiners, and the options available were fissure sealant and conservative restoration. For validation of treatment decisions, the teeth were sectioned and examined in a stereomicroscope. Thereafter, dental slices were scanned and the images were edited to facilitate classification of existing carious lesions. Intra and inter-examiner reproducibility for the determination of treatment plans were calculated using Cohen`s kappa test (95%-CI). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and the area under the ROC curve were also calculated. Results: VI and L provided on average the greatest intra- and inter-examiner reproducibility, respectively. Although the combination of diagnostic methods may decrease both intra- and inter examiners reproducibility, combination of VI, L and RX resulted in the greatest sensitivity, being statistically superior to RX and L. There was more inter-examiner agreement for the option of restorative treatment, while the use of sealants as a treatment option yielded the lowest values. Negative predictive values were numerically inferior to positive predictive values, indicating that the examiners preferred not to restore a carious tooth than to proceed operatively in an intact tooth. The combination of the three methods studied showed the best results in determining treatment plans for occlusal surfaces, when compared to the other types of exams. On the other hand, radiographic examination and laser fluorescence were less efficient when used alone.