Optimal day-ahead scheduling of integrated urban energy systems

An optimal day-ahead scheduling method (ODSM) for the integrated urban energy system (IUES) is introduced, which considers the reconfigurable capability of an electric distribution network. The hourly topology of a distribution network, a natural gas network, the energy centers including the combined heat and power (CHP) units, different energy conversion devices and demand responsive loads (DRLs), are optimized to minimize the day-ahead operation cost of the IUES. The hourly reconfigurable capability of the electric distribution network utilizing remotely controlled switches (RCSs) is explored and discussed. The operational constraints from the unbalanced three-phase electric distribution network, the natural gas network, and the energy centers are considered. The interactions between the electric distribution network and the natural gas network take place through conversion of energy among different energy vectors in the energy centers. An energy conversion analysis model for the energy center was developed based on the energy hub model. A hybrid optimization method based on genetic algorithm (GA) and a nonlinear interior point method (IPM) is utilized to solve the ODSM model. Numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed ODSM is able to provide the IUES with an effective and economical day-ahead scheduling scheme and reduce the operational cost of the IUES.

Day-Ahead Optimal Charging/Discharging Scheduling for Electric Vehicles in Micro-Grids

A micro-grid is an autonomous system which can be operated and connected to an external system or isolated with the help of energy storage systems (ESSs). While the daily output of distributed generators (DGs) strongly depends on the temporal distribution of natural resources such as wind and solar, unregulated electric vehicle (EV) charging demand will deteriorate the imbalance between the daily load and generation curves. In this paper, a statistical model is presented to describe daily EV charging/discharging behaviour. An optimisation problem is proposed to obtain economic operation for the micro-grid based on this model. In day-ahead scheduling, with estimated information of power generation and load demand, optimal charging/discharging of EVs during 24 hours is obtained. A series of numerical optimization solutions in different scenarios is achieved by serial quadratic programming. The results show that optimal charging/discharging of EVs, a daily load curve can better track the generation curve and the network loss and required ESS capacity are both decreased. The paper also demonstrates cost benefits for EVs and operators.

Day-ahead resource scheduling in smart grids considering Vehicle-to-Grid and network constraints

Energy resource scheduling becomes increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle use is envisaged. The present paper proposes a methodology for dayahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and of gridable vehicles, usually referred as Vehicle- o-Grid (V2G). This method considers that the energy resources are managed by a Virtual Power Player (VPP) which established contracts with V2G owners. It takes into account these contracts, the user´s requirements subjected to the VPP, and several discharge price steps. Full AC power flow calculation included in the model allows taking into account network constraints. The influence of the successive day requirements on the day-ahead optimal solution is discussed and considered in the proposed model. A case study with a 33 bus distribution network and V2G is used to illustrate the good performance of the proposed method.

Decision support tool for Virtual Power Players: Hybrid Particle Swarm Optimization applied to Day-ahead Vehicle-To-Grid Scheduling

This paper presents a decision support tool methodology to help virtual power players (VPPs) in the Smart Grid (SGs) context to solve the day-ahead energy resource scheduling considering the intensive use of Distributed Generation (DG) and Vehicle-To-Grid (V2G). The main focus is the application of a new hybrid method combing a particle swarm approach and a deterministic technique based on mixedinteger linear programming (MILP) to solve the day-ahead scheduling minimizing total operation costs from the aggregator point of view. A realistic mathematical formulation, considering the electric network constraints and V2G charging and discharging efficiencies is presented. Full AC power flow calculation is included in the hybrid method to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 1800 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Day-ahead Resource Scheduling Including Demand Response for Electric Vehicles

The energy resource scheduling is becoming increasingly important, as the use of distributed resources is intensified and massive gridable vehicle (V2G) use is envisaged. This paper presents a methodology for day-ahead energy resource scheduling for smart grids considering the intensive use of distributed generation and V2G. The main focus is the comparison of different EV management approaches in the day-ahead energy resources management, namely uncontrolled charging, smart charging, V2G and Demand Response (DR) programs i n the V2G approach. Three different DR programs are designed and tested (trip reduce, shifting reduce and reduce+shifting). Othe r important contribution of the paper is the comparison between deterministic and computational intelligence techniques to reduce the execution time. The proposed scheduling is solved with a modified particle swarm optimization. Mixed integer non-linear programming is also used for comparison purposes. Full ac power flow calculation is included to allow taking into account the network constraints. A case study with a 33-bus distribution network and 2000 V2G resources is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Combined Pool/Bilateral Short-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling Model for Day-Ahead Energy Markets

This paper proposes a combined pool/bilateral short term hydrothermal scheduling model (PDC) for the context of the day-ahead energy markets. Some innovative aspects are introduced in the model, such as: i) the hydraulic generation is optimized through the opportunity cost function proposed; ii) there is no decoupling between physical and commercial dispatches, as is the case today in Brazil; iii) interrelationships between pool and bilateral markets are represented through a single optimization problem; iv) risk exposures related to future deficits are intrinsically mitigated; v) the model calculates spot prices in an hourly basis and the results show a coherent correlation between hydrological conditions and calculated prices. The proposed PDC model is solved by a primal-dual interior point method and is evaluated by simulations involving a test system. The results are focused on sensitivity analyses involving the parameters of the model, in such a way to emphasize its main modeling aspects. The results show that the proposed PDC provides a conceptual means for short term price formation for hydrothermal systems.

Coordinated Scheduling of Wind-Thermal Gencos in Day-Ahead Markets

This paper presents a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming approach for solving the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker thermal and wind power producer taking part in a pool-based electricity market. Uncertainty on electricity price and wind power is considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modeled by variable costs, start-up costs and technical operating constraints, such as: ramp up/down limits and minimum up/down time limits. An efficient mixed-integer linear program is presented to develop the offering strategies of the coordinated production of thermal and wind energy generation, aiming to maximize the expected profit. A case study with data from the Iberian Electricity Market is presented and results are discussed to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Constructing a 7-day Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen at North London, United Kingdom

A number of media outlets now issue medium-range (~7 day) weather forecasts on a regular basis. It is therefore logical that aerobiologists should attempt to produce medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen that cover the same time period as the weather forecasts. The objective of this study is to construct a medium-range (< 7 day) forecast model for grass pollen at north London. The forecast models were produced using regression analysis based on grass pollen and meteorological data from 1990-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. The modelling process was improved by dividing the grass pollen season into three periods; the pre-peak, peak and post peak periods of grass pollen release. The forecast consisted of five regression models. Two simple linear regression models predicting the start and end date of the peak period, and three multiple regression models forecasting daily average grass pollen counts in the pre-peak, peak and post-peak periods. Overall the forecast models achieved 62% accuracy in 2000 and 47% in 2002, reflecting the fact that the 2002 grass pollen season was of a higher magnitude than any of the other seasons included in the analysis. This study has the potential to make a notable contribution to the field of aerobiology. Winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation were used to predict certain characteristics of the grass pollen season, which presents an important advance in aerobiological work. The ability to predict allergenic pollen counts for a period between five and seven days will benefit allergy sufferers. Furthermore, medium-range forecasts for allergenic pollen will be of assistance to the medical profession, including allergists planning treatment and physicians scheduling clinical trials.

Bidding Decision of Wind-Thermal GenCo in Day-Ahead Market

This paper deals with the self-scheduling problem of a price-taker having wind and thermal power production and assisted by a cyber-physical system for supporting management decisions in a day-ahead electric energy market. The self-scheduling is regarded as a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem. Uncertainties on electricity price and wind power are considered through a set of scenarios. Thermal units are modelled by start-up and variable costs, furthermore constraints are considered, such as: ramp up/down and minimum up/down time limits. The stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem allows a decision support for strategies advantaging from an effective wind and thermal mixed bidding. A case study is presented using data from the Iberian electricity market.

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

PLAStiCC: Predictive Look-Ahead Scheduling for Continuous dataflows on Clouds

Scalable stream processing and continuous dataflow systems are gaining traction with the rise of big data due to the need for processing high velocity data in near real time. Unlike batch processing systems such as MapReduce and workflows, static scheduling strategies fall short for continuous dataflows due to the variations in the input data rates and the need for sustained throughput. The elastic resource provisioning of cloud infrastructure is valuable to meet the changing resource needs of such continuous applications. However, multi-tenant cloud resources introduce yet another dimension of performance variability that impacts the application's throughput. In this paper we propose PLAStiCC, an adaptive scheduling algorithm that balances resource cost and application throughput using a prediction-based lookahead approach. It not only addresses variations in the input data rates but also the underlying cloud infrastructure. In addition, we also propose several simpler static scheduling heuristics that operate in the absence of accurate performance prediction model. These static and adaptive heuristics are evaluated through extensive simulations using performance traces obtained from Amazon AWS IaaS public cloud. Our results show an improvement of up to 20% in the overall profit as compared to the reactive adaptation algorithm.

A 30-Day-Ahead Forecast Model for Grass Pollen in North London, United Kingdom

A 30-day ahead forecast method has been developed for grass pollen at north London. The total period of the grass pollen season is covered by eight multiple regression models, each covering a 10-day period running consecutively from 21st May to 8th August. This means that three models were used for each 30-day forecast. The forecast models were produced using grass pollen and environmental data from 1961-1999 and tested on data from 2000 and 2002. Model accuracy was judged in two ways: the number of times the forecast model was able to successfully predict the severity (relative to the 1961-1999 dataset as a whole) of grass pollen counts in each of the eight forecast periods on a scale of one to four; and the number of times the forecast model was able to predict whether grass pollen counts were higher or lower than the mean. The models achieved 62.5% accuracy in both assessment years when predicting the relative severity of grass pollen counts on a scale of one to four, which equates to six of the eight 10-day periods being forecast correctly. The models attained 87.5% and 100% accuracy in 2000 and 2002 respectively when predicting whether grass pollen counts would be higher or lower than the mean. Attempting to predict pollen counts during distinct 10-day periods throughout the grass pollen season is a novel approach. The models also employed original methodology in the use of winter averages of the North Atlantic Oscillation to forecast 10-day means of allergenic pollen counts.

Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process it is necessary the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status. Besides the new operation condition, it is important more accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of in short-term and very short-term methods. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented.

ANN based day-ahead spinning reserve forecast for electricity market simulation

Electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment require adequate decision support tools, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. This paper deals with short-term predication of day-ahead spinning reserve (SR) requirement that helps the ISO to make effective and timely decisions. Based on these forecasted information, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead SR market. The proposed concepts and methodologies are implemented in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.

ANN based day-ahead ancillary services forecast for electricity market simulation

Adequate decision support tools are required by electricity market players operating in a liberalized environment, allowing them to consider all the business opportunities and take strategic decisions. Ancillary services (AS) represent a good negotiation opportunity that must be considered by market players. Based on the ancillary services forecasting, market participants can use strategic bidding for day-ahead ancillary services markets. For this reason, ancillary services market simulation is being included in MASCEM, a multi-agent based electricity market simulator that can be used by market players to test and enhance their bidding strategies. The paper presents the methodology used to undertake ancillary services forecasting, based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach. ANNs are used to day-ahead prediction of non-spinning reserve (NS), regulation-up (RU), and regulation down (RD). Spinning reserve (SR) is mentioned as past work for comparative analysis. A case study based on California ISO (CAISO) data is included; the forecasted results are presented and compared with CAISO published forecast.