Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Classification of Airborne LIDAR Intensity Data Using Statistical Analysis and Hough Transform with Application to Power Line Corridors

Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) has great potential to assist vegetation management in power line corridors by providing more accurate geometric information of the power line assets and vegetation along the corridors. However, the development of algorithms for the automatic processing of LIDAR point cloud data, in particular for feature extraction and classification of raw point cloud data, is in still in its infancy. In this paper, we take advantage of LIDAR intensity and try to classify ground and non-ground points by statistically analyzing the skewness and kurtosis of the intensity data. Moreover, the Hough transform is employed to detected power lines from the filtered object points. The experimental results show the effectiveness of our methods and indicate that better results were obtained by using LIDAR intensity data than elevation data.

An efficient tagging data interpretation and representation scheme for item recommendation

A tag-based item recommendation method generates an ordered list of items, likely interesting to a particular user, using the users past tagging behaviour. However, the users tagging behaviour varies in different tagging systems. A potential problem in generating quality recommendation is how to build user profiles, that interprets user behaviour to be effectively used, in recommendation models. Generally, the recommendation methods are made to work with specific types of user profiles, and may not work well with different datasets. In this paper, we investigate several tagging data interpretation and representation schemes that can lead to building an effective user profile. We discuss the various benefits a scheme brings to a recommendation method by highlighting the representative features of user tagging behaviours on a specific dataset. Empirical analysis shows that each interpretation scheme forms a distinct data representation which eventually affects the recommendation result. Results on various datasets show that an interpretation scheme should be selected based on the dominant usage in the tagging data (i.e. either higher amount of tags or higher amount of items present). The usage represents the characteristic of user tagging behaviour in the system. The results also demonstrate how the scheme is able to address the cold-start user problem.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

ssSNPer: identifying statistically similar SNPs to aid interpretation of genetic association studies

ssSNPer is a novel user-friendly web interface that provides easy determination of the number and location of untested HapMap SNPs, in the region surrounding a tested HapMap SNP, which are statistically similar and would thus produce comparable and perhaps more significant association results. Identification of ssSNPs can have crucial implications for the interpretation of the initial association results and the design of follow-up studies. AVAILABILITY: http://fraser.qimr.edu.au/general/daleN/ssSNPer/

Clinical reasoning: The relative contribution of identification, interpretation and hypothesis errors to misdiagnosis

The aim of this study was to identify and describe the types of errors in clinical reasoning that contribute to poor diagnostic performance at different levels of medical training and experience. Three cohorts of subjects, second- and fourth- (final) year medical students and a group of general practitioners, completed a set of clinical reasoning problems. The responses of those whose scores fell below the 25th centile were analysed to establish the stage of the clinical reasoning process - identification of relevant information, interpretation or hypothesis generation - at which most errors occurred and whether this was dependent on problem difficulty and level of medical experience. Results indicate that hypothesis errors decrease as expertise increases but that identification and interpretation errors increase. This may be due to inappropriate use of pattern recognition or to failure of the knowledge base. Furthermore, although hypothesis errors increased in line with problem difficulty, identification and interpretation errors decreased. A possible explanation is that as problem difficulty increases, subjects at all levels of expertise are less able to differentiate between relevant and irrelevant clinical features and so give equal consideration to all information contained within a case. It is concluded that the development of clinical reasoning in medical students throughout the course of their pre-clinical and clinical education may be enhanced by both an analysis of the clinical reasoning process and a specific focus on each of the stages at which errors commonly occur.

Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy in higher eukaryotes.

Research in autophagy continues to accelerate,(1) and as a result many new scientists are entering the field. Accordingly, it is important to establish a standard set of criteria for monitoring macroautophagy in different organisms. Recent reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose.(2,3) There are many useful and convenient methods that can be used to monitor macroautophagy in yeast, but relatively few in other model systems, and there is much confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure macroautophagy in higher eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers of autophagosomes versus those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway; thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from fully functional autophagy that includes delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of the methods that can be used by investigators who are attempting to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as by reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that investigate these processes. This set of guidelines is not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to verify an autophagic response.

Data interpretation in social housing management

The use of business management techniques in the public sector is not a new topic. However the increased use of the phrase "housing business management" as against that of "housing administration" reflects a change in the underlying philosophy of service delivery. The paper examines how data collection and use can be related to the operational requirements of the social landlords and highlights the problems of systems dynamics generating functionally obsolete data.

Subjective wellbeing and families : issues of measurement and data interpretation

Since April 2001 we have been monitoring the Subjective Wellbeing (SWB) of the Australian population using the Personal Wellbeing Index. Our aims are to establish normative values and to identify people with abnormally low SWB. Each of 18 surveys has involved a new sample of 2,000 people, randomly chosen but representing the geographical distribution of the population. The data are remarkable for their stability, with the variation in population mean scores being just 3.2 percentage points. The cause of such high reliability is Subjective Wellbeing Homeostasis. Here, in a manner analogous to the management of body temperature, the SWB for each person is normally held positive and within a narrow set-point range. However, all homeostatic systems have a limited capacity to absorb challenge and when aversive experiences are both strong and sustained, homeostasis fails. If this occurs, people lose their normal positive view of themselves and become depressed. Therefore, the second aim of these studies is to reveal the demographic character of families in distress, who are in need of additional resources. Our data reveal the extent to which family structure and responsibilities impact on wellbeing. They also yield important diagnostic information about individuals, and point to SWB as a crucial measure of intervention outcome. In sum, the Personal Wellbeing Index is a simple, reliable and valid measure of SWB. The measures it yields are theoretically embedded, they can be compared against solid normative data, and their interpretation is enhanced through an understanding of SWB homeostasis.