A conturbada e atual conjuntura internacional : Portugal e o futuro

Este artigo tem por objetivo chamar a atenção para o despontar de várias situações de grande incerteza e elevado grau de risco que afetam o sistema mundial e que os velhos poderes democráticos persistem em ignorar. Essas situações provêm essencialmente de três fatores altamente desestabilizadores: primeiro a existência de países em que toda uma elite corrupta, totalitária e didatorial se instalou e procura perpetuar-se no poder, com a geração de grandes focos de miséria e do aumento do grassar da fome; segundo a execução de uma política intransigente, arrogante e agressiva da parte de Pequim, a qual se tem refletido em evidentes apoios económicos e militares a Estados considerados como irracionais ou fomentadores do atual desestabilização nas áreas política e dos mercados internacionais; e terceiro na evidente instabilidade que se verifica em África pelas razões mencionadas, continente que a Europa não deve nem pode ignorar. Conclui-se com a necessidade premente de Portugal se tornar um Estado mais forte, de maior solidez e credibilidade, que lhe permita reconquistar o lugar a que tem direito nos níveis superiores de hierarquização das Potências no interior do Sistema mundial.

Riesgos naturales en la actividad turística

El propósito de la presente aportación se centra en la consideración de los riesgos de origen natural en la actividad turística, desde una doble vertiente: el efecto de los riesgos naturales, sobre todo los de carácter excepcional, en el desarrollo de las prácticas turísticas, y la consideración del papel que corresponde al turismo en la configuración de modelos territoriales sobre territorios en riesgo. Como enmarque general, el tema de estudio es analizado como una de las dimensiones dentro de las interacciones entre medio ambiente y sistemas de ocupación del territorio, bien entendido que el desarrollo del turismo, como manifestación de las intervenciones del grupo humano en un territorio, implica y genera nuevos modelos de organización y gestión del suelo. En definitiva, formas de afectar a la relación del hombre con su entorno.

Detection of dangerous situations using a smart internet of things system

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a concept that can foster the emergence of innovative applications. In order to minimize parents’s concerns about their children’s safety, this paper presents the design of a smart Internet of Things system for identifying dangerous situations. The system will be based on real time collection and analysis of physiological signals monitored by non-invasive and non-intrusive sensors, Frequency IDentification (RFID) tags and a Global Positioning System (GPS) to determine when a child is in danger. The assumption of a state of danger is made taking into account the validation of a certain number of biometric reactions to some specific situations and according to a self-learning algorithm developed for this architecture. The results of the analysis of data collected and the location of the child will be able in real time to child’s care holders in a web application.

Assessing risk in dynamic situations:lessons from fire service operations

Fire Service personnel face risk on a daily basis, frequently working in extremely hazardous conditions—and the severity of the danger faced can fluctuate rapidly. The Fire Service has therefore become extremely experienced at managing dynamic risks. The aim of this article is to review techniques used in the UK fire service to attenuate the effects of risk and to discuss these with respect to organisations which experience dynamic risk in other fields—even if in less dramatic conditions.

Conceptual Foundations of Construction of the Models and Procedures for Prediction of the Avalanche-dangerous Situations Initiation

The conceptual foundations of the models and procedures for prediction of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation are considered. The interpretation model for analysis of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation based on the definition of probabilities of correspondence of studied parameters to the probabilistic distributions of avalanche-dangerous or avalanche non-dangerous situations is offered. The possibility to apply such a model to the real data is considered. The main approaches to the use of multiple representations for the avalanche dangerous situations initiation analysis are generalized.

Information Supply of Geo-information Systems for the Forecasting Problem of the Avalanche Danger

This article is dedicated to the vital problem of the creation of GIS-systems for the monitoring, prognostication and control of technogenic natural catastrophes. The decrease of risks, the protection of economic objects, averting the human victims, caused by the dynamism of avalanche centers, depends on the effectiveness of the prognostication procedures of avalanche danger used. In the article the structure of a prognostication subsystem information input is developed and the technology for the complex forecast of avalanche-prone situations is proposed.

Finite-element Analysis Of 3 Situations Of Trauma In The Human Edentulous Mandible.

Maxillofacial trauma resulting from falls in elderly patients is a major social and health care concern. Most of these traumatic events involve mandibular fractures. The aim of this study was to analyze stress distributions from traumatic loads applied on the symphyseal, parasymphyseal, and mandibular body regions in the elderly edentulous mandible using finite-element analysis (FEA). Computerized tomographic analysis of an edentulous macerated human mandible of a patient approximately 65 years old was performed. The bone structure was converted into a 3-dimensional stereolithographic model, which was used to construct the computer-aided design (CAD) geometry for FEA. The mechanical properties of cortical and cancellous bone were characterized as isotropic and elastic structures, respectively, in the CAD model. The condyles were constrained to prevent free movement in the x-, y-, and z-axes during simulation. This enabled the simulation to include the presence of masticatory muscles during trauma. Three different simulations were performed. Loads of 700 N were applied perpendicular to the surface of the cortical bone in the symphyseal, parasymphyseal, and mandibular body regions. The simulation results were evaluated according to equivalent von Mises stress distributions. Traumatic load at the symphyseal region generated low stress levels in the mental region and high stress levels in the mandibular neck. Traumatic load at the parasymphyseal region concentrated the resulting stress close to the mental foramen. Traumatic load in the mandibular body generated extensive stress in the mandibular body, angle, and ramus. FEA enabled precise mapping of the stress distribution in a human elderly edentulous mandible (neck and mandibular angle) in response to 3 different traumatic load conditions. This knowledge can help guide emergency responders as they evaluate patients after a traumatic event.

Obstacle Crossing With Dual Tasking Is A Danger For Individuals With Alzheimer's Disease And For Healthy Older People.

The aim of this study was to analyze the effects of dual tasking on obstacle crossing during walking by individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and by healthy older people. Thirty four elderly individuals (16 healthy subjects and 18 individuals with AD) were recruited to participate in this study. Three AD individuals and one control participant were excluded due to exclusion criteria. The participants were instructed to walk barefoot at their own speed along an 8 m long pathway. Each participant performed five trials for each condition (unobstructed walking, unobstructed walking with dual tasking, and obstacle crossing during walking with dual tasking). The trials were completely randomized for each participant. The mid-pathway stride was measured in the unobstructed walking trials and the stride that occurred during the obstacle avoidance was measured in the trials that involved obstacle crossing. The behavior of the healthy elderly subjects and individuals with AD was similar for obstacle crossing during walking with dual tasking. Both groups used the posture first strategy to prioritize stability and showed decreased attention to executive tasking while walking. Additionally, AD had a strong influence on the modifications that are made by the elderly while walking under different walking conditions.

Biodeterioration of painted mortar surfaces in tropical urban and coastal situations: Comparison of four paint formulations

Four different architectural acrylic paint formulations were tested by exposure to weathering for 7 years in the urban site of Sao Paulo and the coastal site of Ubatuba, South-East Brazil. Surface discolorations and detachment of coatings were assessed and the components of the biofilms were identified by standard microbiological methods. The painted surfaces of the mortar panels were much more discolored in Ubatuba, where major components of the biofilms were the cyanobacteria Gloeocapsa and Scytonema. In two of the four paint films, a pink coloration on the surface at this coastal site, caused mainly by red-pigmented Gloeocapsa, produced high discoloration ratings, but low degradation (as measured by detachment). Biofilms in Sao Paulo contained the same range of phototrophs, but in lesser quantity. However, fungal numbers, as determined by plating, were higher. Detachment ratings in this urban site were only slightly lower than in Ubatuba. The matt paint performed worst of the four, with silk and semi-gloss finishes giving lowest biodeterioration ratings. The matt elastomeric paint performed well at both sites, apart from becoming almost 100% covered by the pink biofilm in Ubatuba. Unpainted mortar panels became intensely discolored with a black biofilm, showing that all the paints had achieved one of their objectives, that of surface protection of the substrate. The value of PVC (pigment volume content) as an indicator of coatings biosusceptibility, is questioned. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating HIV incidence rates from age prevalence data in epidemic situations

We present a method of estimating HIV incidence rates in epidemic situations from data on age-specific prevalence and changes in the overall prevalence over time. The method is applied to women attending antenatal clinics in Hlabisa, a rural district of KwaZulu/Natal, South Africa, where transmission of HIV is overwhelmingly through heterosexual contact. A model which gives age-specific prevalence rates in the presence of a progressing epidemic is fitted to prevalence data for 1998 using maximum likelihood methods and used to derive the age-specific incidence. Error estimates are obtained using a Monte Carlo procedure. Although the method is quite general some simplifying assumptions are made concerning the form of the risk function and sensitivity analyses are performed to explore the importance of these assumptions. The analysis shows that in 1998 the annual incidence of infection per susceptible woman increased from 5.4 per cent (3.3-8.5 per cent; here and elsewhere ranges give 95 per cent confidence limits) at age 15 years to 24.5 per cent (20.6-29.1 per cent) at age 22 years and declined to 1.3 per cent (0.5-2.9 per cent) at age 50 years; standardized to a uniform age distribution, the overall incidence per susceptible woman aged 15 to 59 was 11.4 per cent (10.0-13.1 per cent); per women in the population it was 8.4 per cent (7.3-9.5 per cent). Standardized to the age distribution of the female population the average incidence per woman was 9.6 per cent (8.4-11.0 per cent); standardized to the age distribution of women attending antenatal clinics, it was 11.3 per cent (9.8-13.3 per cent). The estimated incidence depends on the values used for the epidemic growth rate and the AIDS related mortality. To ensure that, for this population, errors in these two parameters change the age specific estimates of the annual incidence by less than the standard deviation of the estimates of the age specific incidence, the AIDS related mortality should be known to within +/-50 per cent and the epidemic growth rate to within +/-25 per cent, both of which conditions are met. In the absence of cohort studies to measure the incidence of HIV infection directly, useful estimates of the age-specific incidence can be obtained from cross-sectional, age-specific prevalence data and repeat cross-sectional data on the overall prevalence of HIV infection. Several assumptions were made because of the lack of data but sensitivity analyses show that they are unlikely to affect the overall estimates significantly. These estimates are important in assessing the magnitude of the public health problem, for designing vaccine trials and for evaluating the impact of interventions. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Identification and dimensionality of difficult situations at work

Attempts to understand why people with adequate communication skills do not always perform well have focused on personality or personal style variables. This research focuses on the situational context and the difficulty inherent in particular encounters. This paper reports two studies concerned with what makes difficult face-to-face communication in work settings difficult or demanding. The first study (Study 1) identifies the types of face-to-face communication encounters that people find difficult to manage in the workplace. Quantitative and qualitative data were gathered to define 41 difficult communication situations representing situations difficult for superiors, colleagues and subordinates, as well as generically difficult situations. In Study 2, quantitative data were analysed using multidimensional scaling techniques to reveal the underlying structure of the situations. Four dimensions were identified: protection/approach, vulnerability, self-management, and involvement/engagement. The results provide insight into the ways in which people construe these types of situations and also provide a taxonomy of difficult communication situations in the workplace. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

THE ANTERIOR CINGULATE CORTEX IS A TARGET STRUCTURE FOR THE ANXIOLYTIC-LIKE EFFECTS OF BENZODIAZEPINES ASSESSED BY REPEATED EXPOSURE TO THE ELEVATED PLUS MAZE AND FOS IMMUNOREACTIVITY

Prior experience with the elevated plus maze (EPM) increases the avoidance of rodents to the open arms and impairs the anxiolytic-like effects of benzodiazepines on the traditional behaviors evaluated upon re-exposure to the maze, a phenomenon known as one-trial tolerance. Risk assessment behaviors are also sensitive to benzodiazepines. During re-exposure to the maze, these behaviors reinstate the information-processing initiated during the first experience, and the detection of danger generates stronger open-arm avoidance. The present study investigated whether the benzodiazepine midazolam alters risk assessment behaviors and Fos protein distribution associated with test and retest sessions in the EPM. Naive or maze-experienced Wistar rats received either saline or midazolam (0.5 mg/kg i.p.) and were subjected to the EPM. Midazolam caused the usual effects on exploratory behavior, increasing exploratory activity of naive rats in the open arms and producing no effects on these conventional measures in rats re-exposed to the maze. Risk assessment behaviors, however, were sensitive to the benzodiazepine during both sessions, indicating anxiolytic-like effects of the drug in both conditions. Fos immunohistochemistry showed that midazolam injections were associated with a distinct pattern of action when administered before the test or retest session, and the anterior cingulate cortex, area 1 (Cg1), was the only structure targeted by the benzodiazepine in both situations. Bilateral infusions of midazolam into the Cg1 replicated the behavioral effects of the drug injected systemically, suggesting that this area is critically involved in the anxiolytic-like effects of benzodiazepines, although the behavioral strategy adopted by the animals appears to depend on the previous knowledge of the threatening environment. (C) 2009 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can increasing the viscosity of formulations be used to reduce the human skin penetration of the sunscreen oxybenzone?

The effect of adding thickening agents on the penetration of a sunscreen benzophenone-3 through epidermal and a high-density polyethylene membrane was studied using both very thick (infinite dose) and thin tin use) applications. Contradictory results were obtained. Thickening agents retard skin penetration, in a manner consistent with a diffusional resistance in the formulation, when applied as an infinite dose. In contrast, when applied as in thin (in use) doses, thickening agents promote penetration, most likely through greater stratum corneum diffusivity arising from an enhanced hydration by the thicker formulations. The two key implications from this work are (i) a recognition of the danger in the potential extrapolation of infinite dosing to in use situations, and (ii) to recognize that thicker formulations may sometimes enhance the penetration of other topical agents when applied in use.

An exploratory study of gendered differences in young tourists perception of danger within London

This paper studies young tourists' perception of danger within the urban holiday environment of London, England. The study of perceived danger is important not only in its own right, but also because of the influence it may have on use of leisure spaces and times. This research assesses gender and group composition differences in perception of danger, addressing the relatively neglected issues of men's perception and the relationship between the genders. For the purpose of this paper 'danger' was assessed by studying how safe, relaxed, vulnerable, threatened, and at risk people felt while in London. The study found a number of similarities and differences between the men and women studied, in terms of how they perceived danger and their group composition during the day and nigh-time. These results indicate that gender may not be the only influence on perception and behaviour, and that men and women should not be regarded as-homogenous cohorts. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.