A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change

We investigate the size and power properties of the AH test of evolutionary change. This involves examining whether the size results are sensitive to both the number of individual frequencies estimated and the spectral shape adopted under the null hypothesis. The power tests examine whether the test has good power to detect shifts in both spectral position (variance) and spectral shape (autocovariance structure).

Analisi della stabilità dei risultati dei test di risposta termica: prove in campo, confronto e analisi critica per diversi metodi di esecuzione e modellizzazione

Il Test di Risposta Termica (Thermal Response Test-TRT) (Mogenson,1983) è il test esistente con il più alto grado di accuratezza per la caratterizzazione del reservoir geotermico superficiale. Il test consiste in una simulazione in situ del funzionamento di un sistema a circuito chiuso di sfruttamento dell’energia geotermica, per un periodo limitato di tempo, attraverso l’iniezione o estrazione di calore a potenza costante all’interno del geo-scambiatore (Borehole Heat Exchanger-BHE). Dall’analisi della variazione delle temperature del fluido circolante, è possibile avere una stima delle proprietà termiche medie del volume del reservoir geotermico interessato dal test. Le grandezze principali per la caratterizzazione di un serbatoio geotermico sono la conduttività termica (λ), la capacità termica volumetrica (c), la temperatura indisturbata del suolo (Tg) e la resistenza termica del pozzo (Rb); la loro determinazione è necessaria per il corretto progettazione degli geo-scambiatori. I risultati del TRT sono tuttavia sensibili alle condizioni al contorno spazio-temporali quali ad es.: variazione della temperatura del terreno, movimento d’acqua di falda, condizioni metereologiche, eventi stagionali, ecc. Questo lavoro vuole: i) introdurre uno studio sui problemi di caratterizzazione del reservoir geotermico superficiale, in particolare analizzando l’effetto che il movimento d’acqua di falda ha sui parametri termici; ii) analizzare la sensitività dei risultati del test alle variabilità dei parametri caratteristici del funzionamento delle attrezzature. Parte del lavoro della mia tesi è stata svolta in azienda per un periodo di 4 mesi presso la “Groenholland Geo Energy systems” che ha sede ad Amsterdam in Olanda. Tre diversi esperimenti sono stati realizzati sullo stesso sito (stratigrafia nota del terreno: argilla, sabbia fine e sabbia grossa) usando una sonda profonda 30 metri e diversi pozzi per l’estrazione d’acqua e per monitorare gli effetti in prossimità del geo scambiatore. I risultati degli esperimenti sono stati molto diversi tra di loro, non solo in termini di dati registrati (temperature del fluido termovettore), ma in termini dei valori dei parametri ottenuti elaborando i dati. In particolare non è sufficiente adottare il modello classico della sorgente lineare infinita (Infinite Line Source Solution- ILS) (Ingersoll and Plass, 1948), il quale descrive il trasferimento di calore per conduzione in un mezzo omogeneo indefinito a temperatura costante. Infatti, lo scambio di calore avviene anche tramite convezione causata dal movimento d’acqua di falda, non identificabile mediante gli approcci classici tipo CUSUM test (Cumulative Sum test) (Brown e altri,1975) Lo studio della tesi vuole dare un quadro di riferimento per correlare la variabilità dei risultati con la variabilità delle condizioni al contorno. L’analisi integra le metodologie classiche (ILS) con un approccio geostatistico utile a comprendere i fenomeni e fluttuazioni che caratterizzano il test. Lo studio delle principali variabili e parametri del test, quali temperatura in ingresso e uscita del fluido termovettore, portata del fluido e potenza iniettata o estratta, è stato sviluppato mediante: il variogramma temporale, ovvero la semivarianza dell’accrescimento, che esprime il tipo di autocorrelazione temporale della variabile in esame; la covarianza incrociata temporale, ovvero la covarianza fra due variabili del sistema, che ne definisce quantitativamente il grado di correlazione in funzionamento del loro sfasamento temporale. L’approccio geostatistico proposto considera la temperatura del fluido Tf come una funzione aleatoria (FA) non stazionaria nel tempo (Chiles, 1999), il cui trend è formalmente definito, ma deve essere identificato numericamente. Si considera quindi un classico modello a residuo; in cui la FA è modellizzata come la somma di un termine deterministico, la media (il valore atteso) m(t),coincidente col modello descritto dalla teoria della sorgente lineare infinità, e di un termine aleatorio, la fluttuazione, Y(t). Le variabili portata e potenza sono invece considerate delle funzioni aleatorie stazionarie nel tempo, ovvero a media costante. Da questo studio di Tesi si sono raggiunte delle conclusioni molto importanti per lo studio del TRT: Confronto tra gli esperimenti in estrazione di calore, con e senza movimento d’acqua di falda: si studia l’effetto indotto dalla falda sul TRT. E’ possibile caratterizzare quantitativamente l’incremento della conducibilità termica equivalente legata a fenomeni convettivi dovuti al movimento d’acqua di falda. Inoltre, i variogrammi sperimentali evidenziano periodicità simili nei due casi e legate al funzionamento della pompa di calore e della componentistica associata ed alla circolazione del fluido termovettore all’interno della sonda. Tuttavia, la componente advettiva ha un effetto di smorzamento sulle piccole periodicità dei variogrammi, ma di aumento dell’ampiezza delle periodicità maggiori a causa del funzionamento della pompa di calore che deve fornire maggiore energia al sistema per bilanciare le dispersioni dovute al movimento d’acqua di falda. Confronto fra estrazione ed iniezione di calore, con movimento d’acqua di falda: si studia la significatività dei risultati nei due casi. L’analisi delle variografie evidenzia significative differenze nella struttura dei variogrammi sperimentali. In particolare, nel test con iniezione di calore i variogrammi sperimentali delle temperature hanno valori sistematicamente inferiori, circostanza che assicura una migliore precisione nella stima dei parametri termici. Quindi eseguire il TRT in iniezione di calore risulta più preciso. Dall’analisi dei variogrammi sperimentali delle singole variabili quali temperatura del fluido in ingresso e uscita all’interno del geoscambiatore è stato confermato il fenomeno di smorzamento delle oscillazioni da parte del terreno. Dall’analisi delle singole variabili del test (temperature, potenza, portata) è stata confermata l’indipendenza temporale fra portate e temperature. Ciò è evidenziato dalle diverse strutture dei variogrammi diretti e dalle covarianze incrociate prossime a zero. Mediante correlogrami è stato dimostrato la possibilità di calcolare il tempo impiegato dal fluido termovettore per circolare all’interno della sonda. L’analisi geostatistica ha permesso quindi di studiare in dettaglio la sensitività dei risultati del TRT alle diverse condizioni al contorno, quelle legate al reservoir e quelle legate al funzionamento delle attrezzature

Continuous monitoring of bovine spongiform encephalopathy rapid test performance by weak positive tissue controls and quality control charts

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) rapid tests and routine BSE-testing laboratories underlie strict regulations for approval. Due to the lack of BSE-positive control samples, however, full assay validation at the level of individual test runs and continuous monitoring of test performance on-site is difficult. Most rapid tests use synthetic prion protein peptides, but it is not known to which extend they reflect the assay performance on field samples, and whether they are sufficient to indicate on-site assay quality problems. To address this question we compared the test scores of the provided kit peptide controls to those of standardized weak BSE-positive tissue samples in individual test runs as well as continuously over time by quality control charts in two widely used BSE rapid tests. Our results reveal only a weak correlation between the weak positive tissue control and the peptide control scores. We identified kit-lot related shifts in the assay performances that were not reflected by the peptide control scores. Vice versa, not all shifts indicated by the peptide control scores indeed reflected a shift in the assay performance. In conclusion these data highlight that the use of the kit peptide controls for continuous quality control purposes may result in unjustified rejection or acceptance of test runs. However, standardized weak positive tissue controls in combination with Shewhart-CUSUM control charts appear to be reliable in continuously monitoring assay performance on-site to identify undesired deviations.

Adapting The Sniffin' Sticks Olfactory Test To Diagnose Parkinson's Disease In Estonia.

The aim of the study was to develop a culturally adapted translation of the 12-item smell identification test from Sniffin' Sticks (SS-12) for the Estonian population in order to help diagnose Parkinson's disease (PD). A standard translation of the SS-12 was created and 150 healthy Estonians were questioned about the smells used as response options in the test. Unfamiliar smells were replaced by culturally familiar options. The adapted SS-12 was applied to 70 controls in all age groups, and thereafter to 50 PD patients and 50 age- and sex-matched controls. 14 response options from 48 used in the SS-12 were replaced with familiar smells in an adapted version, in which the mean rate of correct response was 87% (range 73-99) compared to 83% with the literal translation (range 50-98). In PD patients, the average adapted SS-12 score (5.4/12) was significantly lower than in controls (average score 8.9/12), p < 0.0001. A multiple linear regression using the score in the SS-12 as the outcome measure showed that diagnosis and age independently influenced the result of the SS-12. A logistic regression using the SS-12 and age as covariates showed that the SS-12 (but not age) correctly classified 79.0% of subjects into the PD and control category, using a cut-off of <7 gave a sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 86% for the diagnosis of PD. The developed SS-12 cultural adaption is appropriate for testing olfaction in Estonia for the purpose of PD diagnosis.

Effect Of Exercise Test On Pulmonary Function Of Obese Adolescents.

to investigate the pulmonary response to exercise of non-morbidly obese adolescents, considering the gender. a prospective cross-sectional study was conducted with 92 adolescents (47 obese and 45 eutrophic), divided in four groups according to obesity and gender. Anthropometric parameters, pulmonary function (spirometry and oxygen saturation [SatO2]), heart rate (HR), blood pressure (BP), respiratory rate (RR), and respiratory muscle strength were measured. Pulmonary function parameters were measured before, during, and after the exercise test. BP and HR were higher in obese individuals during the exercise test (p = 0.0001). SatO2 values decreased during exercise in obese adolescents (p = 0.0001). Obese males had higher levels of maximum inspiratory and expiratory pressures (p = 0.0002) when compared to obese and eutrophic females. Obese males showed lower values of maximum voluntary ventilation, forced vital capacity, and forced expiratory volume in the first second when compared to eutrophic males, before and after exercise (p = 0.0005). Obese females had greater inspiratory capacity compared to eutrophic females (p = 0.0001). Expiratory reserve volume was lower in obese subjects when compared to controls (p ≤ 0,05). obese adolescents presented changes in pulmonary function at rest and these changes remained present during exercise. The spirometric and cardiorespiratory values were different in the four study groups. The present data demonstrated that, in spite of differences in lung growth, the model of fat distribution alters pulmonary function differently in obese female and male adolescents.

The Lea Grating Test In Assessing Detection Grating Acuity In Normal Infants Less Than 4 Months Of Age.

To assess binocular detection grating acuity using the LEA GRATINGS test to establish age-related norms in healthy infants during their first 3 months of life. In this prospective, longitudinal study of healthy infants with clear red reflex at birth, responses to gratings were measured at 1, 2, and 3 months of age using LEA gratings at a distance of 28 cm. The results were recorded as detection grating acuity values, which were arranged in frequency tables and converted to a one-octave scale for statistical analysis. For the repeated measurements, analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the detection grating acuity results between ages. A total of 133 infants were included. The binocular responses to gratings showed development toward higher mean values and spatial frequencies, ranging from 0.55 ± 0.70 cycles per degree (cpd), or 1.74 ± 0.21 logMAR, in month 1 to 3.11 ± 0.54 cpd, or 0.98 ± 0.16 logMAR, in month 3. Repeated ANOVA indicated differences among grating acuity values in the three age groups. The LEA GRATINGS test allowed assessment of detection grating acuity and its development in a cohort of healthy infants during their first 3 months of life.

The Geometric Curvature Of The Spine Of Runners During Maximal Incremental Effort Test.

This study sought to analyse the behaviour of the average spinal posture using a novel investigative procedure in a maximal incremental effort test performed on a treadmill. Spine motion was collected via stereo-photogrammetric analysis in thirteen amateur athletes. At each time percentage of the gait cycle, the reconstructed spine points were projected onto the sagittal and frontal planes of the trunk. On each plane, a polynomial was fitted to the data, and the two-dimensional geometric curvature along the longitudinal axis of the trunk was calculated to quantify the geometric shape of the spine. The average posture presented at the gait cycle defined the spine Neutral Curve. This method enabled the lateral deviations, lordosis, and kyphosis of the spine to be quantified noninvasively and in detail. The similarity between each two volunteers was a maximum of 19% on the sagittal plane and 13% on the frontal (p<0.01). The data collected in this study can be considered preliminary evidence that there are subject-specific characteristics in spinal curvatures during running. Changes induced by increases in speed were not sufficient for the Neutral Curve to lose its individual characteristics, instead behaving like a postural signature. The data showed the descriptive capability of a new method to analyse spinal postures during locomotion; however, additional studies, and with larger sample sizes, are necessary for extracting more general information from this novel methodology.

Twin-twin Transfusion Syndrome: Neurodevelopmental Screening Test.

Objective To assess the neurodevelopmental functions (cognition, language and motor function) of survivors of twin-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS). Method Observational cross-sectional study of a total of 67 monochorionic diamniotic twins who underwent fetoscopic laser coagulation (FLC) for treatment of TTTS. The study was conducted at the Center for Investigation in Pediatrics (CIPED), Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Ages ranged from one month and four days to two years four months. Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development Screening Test-III, were used for evaluation. Results Most children reached the competent category and were classified as having appropriate performance. The preterm children scored worse than term infants for gross motor subtest (p = 0.036). Conclusion The majority of children reached the expected development according to their age. Despite the good neurodevelopment, children classified at risk should be monitored for development throughout childhood.

Evaluation of the cytotoxic and genotoxic potential of water from the River Paraíba do Sul, in Brazil, with the Allium cepa L. test

This work investigated the cytotoxic and genotoxic potential of water from the River Paraíba do Sul (Brazil) using Allium cepa roots. An anatomo-morphological parameter (root length), mitotic indices, and frequency of micronuclei were analysed. Eight bulbs were chosen at random for treatment for 24 to 120 hours with the River water collected in the years of 2005 and 2006 from sites in the cities of Tremembé and Aparecida (São Paulo state, Brazil). Daily measurements of the length of the roots grown from each bulb were carried out throughout the experiment. Mitotic index (MI) and frequency of micronuclei (MN) were determined for 2000 cells per root, using 3-5 root tips from other bulbs (7-10). Only in the roots treated with samples of the River water collected in 2005 in Tremembé city was there a decrease in the root length growth compared to the respective control. However, a reduction in MI values was verified for both sites analysed for that year. Considering the data involving root length growth and especially MI values, a cytotoxic potential is suggested for the water of the River Paraíba do Sul at Tremembé and Aparecida, in the year of 2005. On the other hand, since in this year the MN frequency was not affected with the river water treatments, genotoxicity is not assumed for the river water sampled at the aforementioned places.

Comparison between the 1% and 2% ibopamine provocative test in primary open-angle glaucoma patients: sensitivity, specificity and tolerability

PURPOSE: To compare intraocular pressure (IOP) rise in normal individuals and primary open-angle glaucoma patients and the safety and efficacy of ibopamine eye drops in different concentrations as a provocative test for glaucoma. METHODS: Glaucoma patients underwent (same eye) the ibopamine provocative test with two concentrations, 1% and 2%, in a random sequence at least 3 weeks apart, but not more than 3 months. The normal individuals were randomly submitted to one of the concentrations of ibopamine (1% and 2%). The test was considered positive if there was an IOP rise greater than 3 or 4 mmHg at 30 or 45 minutes to test which subset of the test has the best sensitivity (Se)/specificity (Sp). RESULTS: There was no statistically significant difference in any of the IOP measurements, comparing 1% with 2% ibopamine. The IOP was significantly higher at 30 and 45 minutes with both concentrations (p<0.001). The best sensitivity/specificity ratio was achieved with the cutoff point set as greater than 3 mmHg at 45 minutes with 2% ibopamine (area under the ROC curve: 0.864, Se: 84.6%; Sp:73.3%). All patients described a slight burning after ibopamine's instillation. CONCLUSION: 2% ibopamine is recommended as a provocative test for glaucoma. Because both concentrations have similar ability to rise IOP, 1% ibopamine may be used to treat ocular hypotony.

Applying a new version of the Brazilian-Portuguese UPSIT smell test in Brazil

Standardized olfactory tests are now available to quantitatively assess disorders of olfaction. A Brazilian-Portuguese version of the University of Pennsylvania Smell Identification Test (UPSIT) is currently being developed specifically for the Brazilian population. The most recent Brazilian-Portuguese version of the UPSIT (UPSIT-Br2) was administered to 88 Brazilian subjects who had no history of neurological or otorhinolaryngological disease. UPSIT-Br2 scores decreased with age, were lower in men than in women, and were lower in subjects with lower income. The degree to which the poorer performance of subjects with lower socio-economic status reflects lack of familiarity with test items is not known. Although this version of the UPSIT provides a sensitive and useful test of smell function for the Brazilian population, a revision of some test items is needed to achieve comparable norms to those found using the North American UPSIT in the United States.

Pathogenicity of different rabies virus isolates and protection test in vaccinated mice

This study was aimed to evaluate and compare the pathogenicity of rabies virus isolated from bats and dogs, and to verify the efficacy of a commercial rabies vaccine against these isolates. For evaluation of pathogenicity, mice were inoculated by the intramuscular route (IM) with 500MICLD50/0.03mL of the viruses. The cross-protection test was performed by vaccinating groups of mice by the subcutaneous route and challenged through the intracerebral (IC) route. Isolates were fully pathogenic when inoculated by the IC route. When inoculated intramuscularly, the pathogenicity observed showed different death rates: 60.0% for the Desmodus rotundus isolate; 50.0% for dog and Nyctinomops laticaudatus isolates; 40.0% for Artibeus lituratus isolate; 9.5% Molossus molossus isolate; and 5.2% for the Eptesicus furinalis isolate. Mice receiving two doses of the vaccine and challenged by the IC route with the isolates were fully protected. Mice receiving only one dose of vaccine were partially protected against the dog isolate. The isolates from bats were pathogenic by the IC route in mice. However, when inoculated through the intramuscular route, the same isolates were found with different degrees of pathogenicity. The results of this work suggest that a commercial vaccine protects mice from infection with bat rabies virus isolates, in addition to a canine rabies virus isolate.

The ability of the BANA test to detect different levels of P. gingivalis, T. denticola and T. forsythia

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of the BANA Test to detect different levels of Porphyromonas gingivalis, Treponema denticola and Tannerella forsythia or their combinations in subgingival samples at the initial diagnosis and after periodontal therapy. Periodontal sites with probing depths between 5-7 mm and clinical attachment level between 5-10 mm, from 53 subjects with chronic periodontitis, were sampled in four periods: initial diagnosis (T0), immediately (T1), 45 (T2) and 60 days (T3) after scaling and root planing. BANA Test and Checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization identified red complex species in the subgingival biofilm. In all experimental periods, the highest frequencies of score 2 (Checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization) for P. gingivalis, T. denticola and T. forsythia were observed when strong enzymatic activity (BANA) was present (p < 0.01). The best agreement was observed at initial diagnosis. The BANA Test sensitivity was 95.54% (T0), 65.18% (T1), 65.22% (T2) and 50.26% (T3). The specificity values were 12.24% (T0), 57.38% (T1), 46.27% (T2) and 53.48% (T3). The BANA Test is more effective for the detection of red complex pathogens when the bacterial levels are high, i.e. in the initial diagnosis of chronic periodontitis.