Testing the random walk hypothesis with variance ratio statistics

Mestrado em Finanças

Comparação de alguns modelos matemáticos para ajuste à curva de lactação média de um rebanho da raça Caracu

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estudo de efeitos ambientais que influem na forma da curva de lactação de cabras mestiças no estado da Paraíba

Conselho Nacional do Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Plasma polymerization of 1,1,1-trichloroethane yields a coating with robust antibacterial surface properties

Novel, highly chlorinated surface coatings were produced via a one-step plasma polymerization (pp) of 1,1,1-trichloroethane (TCE), exhibiting excellent antimicrobial properties against the vigorously biofilm-forming bacterium Staphylococcus epidermidis.

A retrospective evaluation of sustainable yields for Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery

The fundamental aim in fisheries management is to determine an optimal fishing effort for sustainably harvesting from a replenishable resource. The current management objective of Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery is to maximize the long-term net economic return following Australian government policy, resulting in an average recent catch of tiger prawn species of about 1,250 tons only. However, the maximum sustainable catch stated from different studies is around 3,000-4,700 tons. We also evaluated the net profit assuming that there was no buyback scheme in 2005 and the fishing fleet was kept at 89 vessels since 2005 and concluded that 40% more catch on average (2006-2009) and an additional total profit of A$ 17 million ( excluding crew cost) could have been gained in addition to the many millions of dollars of savings in the buyback scheme. These findings have great implications for future management in Australia and elsewhere because there is a grave concern of overfishing worldwide.

New initiators for the ring-opening thermal polymerization of hexachlorocyclotriphosphazene: synthesis of linear poly(dichlorophosphazene) in high yields

Ring-opening thermal polymerization of hexachlorocyclotriphosphazene (N3P3C&h)a s been investigated at 250 "C and at 1.333-Pa pressure using chlorocyclotriphosphazenes N3P3C15(N=PPh3) and N3P3Cl,.,(NMe2), (n = 2-4), salt hydrates, triphenylphosphine, and benzoic acid as initiators. The linear poly (dich1orophosphazene) products are phenoxylated, and the phenoxy polymers are characterized by gel permeation chromatography and dilute solution viscometry. Among the various initiators investigated, CaS04.2H20b rings about a high conversion (>60%) of N3P3C&to the linear [NPC12], polymer which possesses a high molecular weight (>5 X lo6). The rationale for the choice of the initiators and possible mechanism(s) of polymerization is discussed. Several mixed substituent polymers, [NP(OPh),(OC6H4Me-p)2,1, and [NP(OPh),(OCHzCF3)2,]nh, ave been prepared and their thermal properties evaluated.

Subsoil constraints in Vertosols: Crop water use nutrient concentration, and grain yields of bread wheat, durum wheat, barley, chickpea and canola

Single or multiple factors implicated in subsoil constraints including salinity, sodicity, and phytotoxic concentrations of chloride (Cl) are present in many Vertosols including those occurring in Queensland, Australia. The variable distribution and the complex interactions that exist between these constraints limit the agronomic or management options available to manage the soil with these subsoil constraints. The identification of crops and cultivars adapted to these adverse subsoil conditions and/or able to exploit subsoil water may be an option to maintain productivity of these soils. We evaluated relative performance of 5 winter crop species, in terms of grain yields, nutrient concentration, and ability to extract soil water, grown on soils with various levels and combinations of subsoil constraints in 19 field experiments over 2 years. Subsoil constraints were measured by levels of soil Cl, electrical conductivity of the saturation extract (ECse), and exchangeable sodium percentage (ESP). Increasing levels of subsoil constraints significantly decreased maximum depth of water extraction, grain yield, and plant-available water capacity for all the 5 crops and more so for chickpea and durum wheat than bread wheat, barley, or canola. Increasing soil Cl levels had a greater restricting effect on water availability than did ECse and ESP. We developed empirical relationships between soil Cl, ECse, and ESP and crop lower limit (CLL) for estimating subsoil water extraction by 5 winter crops. However, the presence of gypsum influenced the ability to predict CLL based on the levels of ECse. Stronger relationships between apparent unused plant-available water (CLL - LL15; LL15 is lower limit at -1.5 MPa) and soil Cl concentrations than ESP or ECse suggested that the presence of high Cl in these soils most likely inhibited the subsoil water extraction by the crops. This was supported by increased sodium (Na) and Cl concentration with a corresponding decrease in calcium (Ca) and potassium (K) in young mature leaf of bread wheat, durum wheat, and chickpea with increasing levels of subsoil constraints. Of the 2 ions, Na and Cl, the latter appears to be more damaging than the former, resulting in plant dieback and reduced grain yields.

Soil properties and crop yields in a dryland Vertisol sown with cotton-based crop rotations

Information on the effects of growing cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.)-based crop rotations on soil quality of dryland Vertisols is sparse. The objective of this study was to quantify the effects of growing cereal and leguminous crops in rotation with dryland cotton on physical and chemical properties of a grey Vertisol near Warra, SE Queensland, Australia. The experimental treatments, selected after consultations with local cotton growers, were continuous cotton (T1), cotton-sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench.) (T2), cotton-wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) double cropped (T3), cotton-chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) double cropped followed by wheat (T4) and cotton-wheat (T5). From 1993 to 1996 land preparation was by chisel ploughing to about 0.2 m followed by two to four cultivations with a Gyral tyne cultivator. Thereafter all crops were sown with zero tillage except for cultivation with a chisel plough to about 0.07-0.1 m after cotton picking to control heliothis moth pupae. Soil was sampled from 1996 to 2004 and physical (air-filled porosity of oven-dried soil, an indicator of soil compaction; plastic limit; linear shrinkage; dispersion index) and chemical (pH in 0.01 M CaCl2, organic carbon, exchangeable Ca, Mg, K and Na contents) properties measured. Crop rotation affected soil properties only with respect to exchangeable Na content and air-filled porosity. In the surface 0.15 m during 2000 and 2001 lowest air-filled porosity occurred with T1 (average of 34.6 m3/100 m3) and the highest with T3 (average of 38.9 m3/100 m3). Air-filled porosity decreased in the same depth between 1997 and 1998 from 45.0 to 36.1 m3/100 m3, presumably due to smearing and compaction caused by shallow cultivation in wet soil. In the subsoil, T1 and T2 frequently had lower air-filled porosity values in comparison with T3, T4 and T5, particularly during the early stages of the experiment, although values under T1 increased subsequently. In general, compaction was less under rotations which included a wheat crop (T3, T4, T5). For example, average air-filled porosity (in m3/100 m3) in the 0.15-0.30 m depth from 1996 to 1999 was 19.8 with both T1 and T2, and 21.2 with T3, 21.1 with T4 and 21.5 with T5. From 2000 to 2004, average air-filled porosity (in m3/100 m3) in the same depth was 21.3 with T1, 19.0 with T2, 19.8 with T3, 20.0 with T4 and 20.5 with T5. The rotation which included chickpea (T4) resulted in the lowest exchangeable Na content, although differences among rotations were small. Where only a cereal crop with a fibrous root system was sown in rotation with cotton (T2, T3, T5) linear shrinkage in the 0.45-0.60 m depth was lower than in rotations, which included tap-rooted crops such as chickpea (T4) or continuous cotton (T1). Dispersion index and organic carbon decreased, and plastic limit increased with time. Soil organic carbon stocks decreased at a rate of 1.2 Mg/ha/year. Lowest average cotton lint yield occurred with T2 (0.54 Mg/ha) and highest wheat yield with T3 (2.8 Mg/ha). Rotations which include a wheat crop are more likely to result in better soil structure and cotton lint yield than cotton-sorghum or continuous cotton.

Impacts of improved grazing land management on sediment yields, Part 1: Hillslope processes.

Summary Poor land condition resulting from unsustainable grazing practices can reduce enterprise profitability and increase water, sediment and associated nutrient runoff from properties and catchments. This paper presents the results of a 6 year field study that used a series of hillslope flume experiments to evaluate the impact of improved grazing land management (GLM) on hillslope runoff and sediment yields. The study was carried out on a commercial grazing property in a catchment draining to the Burdekin River in northern Australia. During this study average ground cover on hillslopes increased from ~35% to ~75%, although average biomass and litter levels are still relatively low for this landscape type (~60 increasing to 1100 kg of dry matter per hectare). Pasture recovery was greatest on the upper and middle parts of hillslopes. Areas that did not respond to the improved grazing management had <10% cover and were on the lower slopes associated with the location of sodic soil and the initiation of gullies. Comparison of ground cover changes and soil conditions with adjacent properties suggest that grazing management, and not just improved rainfall conditions, were responsible for the improvements in ground cover in this study. The ground cover improvements resulted in progressively lower runoff coefficients for the first event in each wet season, however, runoff coefficients were not reduced at the annual time scale. The hillslope annual sediment yields declined by ~70% on two out of three hillslopes, although where bare patches (with <10% cover) were connected to gullies and streams, annual sediment yields increased in response to higher rainfall in latter years of the study. It appears that bare patches are the primary source areas for both runoff and erosion on these hillslopes. Achieving further reductions in runoff and erosion in these landscapes may require management practices that improve ground cover and biomass in bare areas, particularly when they are located adjacent to concentrated drainage lines.

Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat yields in Australia

Climate projections over the next two to four decades indicate that most of Australia’s wheat-belt is likely to become warmer and drier. Here we used a shire scale, dynamic stress-index model that accounts for the impacts of rainfall and temperature on wheat yield, and a range of climate change projections from global circulation models to spatially estimate yield changes assuming no adaptation and no CO2 fertilisation effects. We modelled five scenarios, a baseline climate (climatology, 1901–2007), and two emission scenarios (“low” and “high” CO2) for two time horizons, namely 2020 and 2050. The potential benefits from CO2 fertilisation were analysed separately using a point level functional simulation model. Irrespective of the emissions scenario, the 2020 projection showed negligible changes in the modelled yield relative to baseline climate, both using the shire or functional point scale models. For the 2050-high emissions scenario, changes in modelled yield relative to the baseline ranged from −5 % to +6 % across most of Western Australia, parts of Victoria and southern New South Wales, and from −5 to −30 % in northern NSW, Queensland and the drier environments of Victoria, South Australia and in-land Western Australia. Taking into account CO2 fertilisation effects across a North–south transect through eastern Australia cancelled most of the yield reductions associated with increased temperatures and reduced rainfall by 2020, and attenuated the expected yield reductions by 2050.

Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031–2060 compared to a baseline of 1961–1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16–20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential adaptation to ongoing climate changes. Easing nitrogen stress via increasing fertilizer inputs would increase absolute yields, but also make the crops more responsive to climate stresses, thus enhancing the negative impacts of climate change in a relative sense. Finally, CO2 fertilization would significantly offset the negative climate

Climate change and crop yields in the Indian Cardamom Hills, 1978-2007 CE

In this study we analyzed climate and crop yields data from Indian cardamom hills for the period 1978-2007 to investigate whether there were significant changes in weather elements, and if such changes have had significant impact on the production of spices and plantation crops. Spatial and temporal variations in air temperatures (maximum and minimum), rainfall and relative humidity are evident across stations. The mean air temperature increased significantly during the last 30 years; the greatest increase and the largest significant upward trend was observed in the daily temperature. The highest increase in minimum temperature was registered for June (0.37A degrees C/18 years) at the Myladumpara station. December and January showed greater warming across the stations. Rainfall during the main monsoon months (June-September) showed a downward trend. Relative humidity showed increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, at the cardamom and tea growing tracts. The warming trend coupled with frequent wet and dry spells during the summer is likely to have a favorable effect on insect pests and disease causing organisms thereby pesticide consumption can go up both during excess rainfall and drought years. The incidence of many minor pest insects and disease pathogens has increased in the recent years of our study along with warming. Significant and slight increases in the yield of small cardamom (Elettaria cardamomum M.) and coffee (Coffea arabica), respectively, were noticed in the recent years.; however the improvement of yield in tea (Thea sinensis) and black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) has not been seen in our analysis.

Efecto de distintos intervalos de mediciones de leche sobre la estimación de producción de leche total, repetibilidad y la forma de la curva de lactancia en un hato reyna

El presente trabajo se realizó con el objetivo de estudiar el efecto de cuatro intervalos de medición de leche (diario, cada 7, 14 y 28 días) sobre la producción de leche total, la repetibilidad y la forma de la curva de lactancia. Para lo cual se utilizaron los registros productivos y reproductivos del hato criollo Reyna de la Finca San José ubicada en Masatepe, Nicaragua. Se estudiaron 105 lactancia provenientes de 28 vacas durante el periodo de 1982 - 1990. Las características estudiadas fueron PLTOT, repetibilidad y la forma de la curva de lactancia. Todos los análisis estadísticos fueron realizados con el procedimiento de mínimos cuadrados y máxima verosimilitud establecido en el paquete estadístico LSMLMW curva de la lactancia fueron 3.2±2.5, 0.47±0.32, 0.01± 0.06, 51.81±29.10, 9.45±3.49 y 6.97±1.02 para a, b, c, Tp, Rp y S respectivamente Al estudiar el efecto de los tratamiento sobre las variables y parámetros de la curva de lactancia se determino que solamente la variable (S) que determina la persistencia fue afectada significativamente curva de lactancia se determinó que dicho efecto es no significativo debido a que la forma de la curva es similar para los cuatro intervalos estudiados.