Time cumulative complexity modeling and analysis for space-based networks

In this paper, the notion of the cumulative time varying graph (C-TVG) is proposed to model the high dynamics and relationships between ordered static graph sequences for space-based information networks (SBINs). In order to improve the performance of management and control of the SBIN, the complexity and social properties of the SBIN's high dynamic topology during a period of time is investigated based on the proposed C-TVG. Moreover, a cumulative topology generation algorithm is designed to establish the topology evolution of the SBIN, which supports the C-TVG based complexity analysis and reduces network congestions and collisions resulting from traditional link establishment mechanisms between satellites. Simulations test the social properties of the SBIN cumulative topology generated through the proposed C-TVG algorithm. Results indicate that through the C-TVG based analysis, more complexity properties of the SBIN can be revealed than the topology analysis without time cumulation. In addition, the application of attack on the SBIN is simulated, and results indicate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed C-TVG and C-TVG based complexity analysis for the SBIN.

Estimating cumulative exposure of wildlife to non-lethal disturbance using spatially explicit capture-recapture models

Impact assessments often focus on short-term behavioral responses of animals to human disturbance. However, the cumulative effects caused by repeated behavioral disruptions are of management concern because these effects have the potential to influence individuals' survival and reproduction. We need to estimate individual exposure rates to disturbance to determine cumulative effects. We present a new approach to estimate the spatial exposure of minke whales to whalewatching boats in Faxaflõi Bay, Iceland. We used recent advances in spatially explicit capture-recapture modeling to estimate the probability that whales would encounter a disturbance (i.e., whalewatching boat). We obtained spatially explicit individual encounter histories of individually identifiable animals using photo-identification. We divided the study area into 1-km2 grid cells and considered each cell a spatially distinct sampling unit. We used capture history of individuals to model and estimate spatial encounter probabilities of individual minke whales across the study area, accounting for heterogeneity in sampling effort. We inferred the exposure of individual minke whales to whalewatching vessels throughout the feeding season by estimating individual whale encounters with vessels using the whale encounter probabilities and spatially explicit whalewatching intensity in the same area, obtained from recorded whalewatching vessel tracks. We then estimated the cumulative time whales spent with whalewatching boats to assess the biological significance of whalewatching disturbances. The estimated exposure levels to boats varied considerably between individuals because of both temporal and spatial variations in the activity centers of whales and the whalewatching intensity in the area. However, although some whales were repeatedly exposed to whalewatching boats throughout the feeding season, the estimated cumulative time they spent with boats was very low. Although whalewatching boat interactions caused feeding disruptions for the whales, the estimated low cumulative exposure indicated that the whalewatching industry in its current state likely is not having any long-term negative effects on vital rates.

Population-level perspectives on global change : genetic and demographic analyses indicate various scales, timing, and causes of scyphozoan jellyfish blooms

Whether a perceived increase in the abundance of jellyfishes is related to changing marine environments has been considered primarily using large-scale analyses of multi-species assemblages. Yet jellyfish blooms-rapid increases in the biomass of pelagic coelenterate species-are single-species demographic events. Using published and new genetic analyses and population surveys, we investigate whether there may be a critical knowledge gap between the scales of recent analyses and the scales of natural phenomena. We find that scyphomedusae may show population genetic structure over scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers, that environments vary regionally and locally, and that populations of medusae can display uncorrelated dynamics on these scales. These findings suggest genetic differences between populations and/or environmental differences between sites are important determinants of population dynamics in these jellyfishes. Moreover, the local abundance of medusae may be most strongly correlated with preceding rather than current local environmental conditions, indicating there is a cumulative time-course to the formation of 'blooms'. Broad-scale macro-ecological analyses will need to build from coordinated, long-term, fine-grained studies to synthesize, rather than mask, population-level phenomena in larger-scale analyses. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

Statins and myasthenia gravis

Introduction. 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl CoA reductase inhibitor ("statin") have been widely used for hypercholesteroremia and Statin induced myopathy is well known. Whether Statins contribute to exacerbation of Myasthenia Gravis (MG) requiring hospitalization is not well known. ^ Objectives. To determine the frequency of statin use in patients with MG seen at the neuromuscular division at University of Alabama in Birmingham (UAB) and to evaluate any association between use of statins and MG exacerbations requiring hospitalization in patients with an established diagnosis of Myasthenia Gravis. ^ Methods. We reviewed records of all current MG patients at the UAB neuromuscular department to obtain details on use of statins and any hospitalizations due to exacerbation of MG over the period from January 1, 2003 to December 31, 2006. ^ Results. Of the 113 MG patients on whom information was available for this period, 40 were on statins during at least one clinic visit. Statin users were more likely to be older (mean age 60.2 vs 53.8, p = 0.029), male (70.0% vs 43.8%, p = 0.008), and had a later onset of myasthenia gravis (mean age in years at onset 49.8 versus 42.9, p = 0.051). The total number of hospitalizations or the proportion of subjects who had at least one hospitalization during the study period did not differ in the statin versus no-statin group. However, when hospitalizations which occurred from a suspected precipitant were excluded ("event"), the proportion of subjects who had at least one such event during the study period was higher in the group using statins. In the final Cox proportional hazard model for cumulative time to event, statin use (OR = 6.44, p <0.01) and baseline immunosuppression (OR = 3.03, p = 0.07) were found to increase the odds of event. ^ Conclusions. Statin use may increase the rate of hospitalizations due to MG exacerbation, when excluding exacerbations precipitated by other suspected factors.^

Investigations on the Chilean kelp crab Taliepus dentatus

Physiological responses of larval stages can differ from those of the adults, affecting key ecological processes. Therefore, developing a mechanistic understanding of larval responses to environmental conditions is essential vis-à-vis climate change. We studied the thermal tolerance windows, defined by lower and upper pejus (Tp) and critical temperatures (Tc), of zoea I, II, and megalopa stages of the Chilean kelp crab Taliepus dentatus. Tp limits determine the temperature range where aerobic scope is maximal and functioning of the organism is unrestrained and were estimated from direct observations of larval activity. Tc limits define the transition from aerobic to anaerobic metabolism, and were estimated from the relationship between standard metabolic rate and temperature. Zoea I showed the broadest, Zoea II an intermediate, and megalopae the narrowest tolerance window (Tp). Optimum performance in megalopae was limited to Tp between 11 and 15°C, while their Tc ranged between 7 and 19°C. Although Tc may be seldom encountered by larvae, the narrower Tp temperatures can frequently expose larvae to unfavorable conditions that can drastically constrain their performance. Temperatures beyond the Tp range of megalopae have been observed in most spring and summer months in central Chile, and can have important consequences for larval swimming performance and impair their ability to avoid predators or settle successfully. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature on development time, variability in field temperatures beyond Tp can affect performance of particular larval stages, which could drive large-scale variability in recruitment and population dynamics of T. dentatus and possibly other invertebrate species.

Analysis for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized network

This paper provides fundamental understanding for the use of cumulative plots for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks. Analytical modeling is performed to generate cumulative plots based on the availability of data: a) Case-D, for detector data only; b) Case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) Case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The empirical study and sensitivity analysis based on simulation experiments have observed the consistency in performance for Case-DS and Case-DSS, whereas, for Case-D the performance is inconsistent. Case-D is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Association between diastolic blood pressure and cumulative work time

A pressão arterial diastólica foi analisada enquanto indicador genérico de envelhecimento, e sua associação com o tempo de serviço foi estudada após o controle da idade como possível fator de confundimento. O estudo foi realizado entre operários de um curtume brasileiro em julho de 1993. Foi testada a associação entre pressão diastólica e tempo de serviço, ajustando um modelo de regressão linear de segunda ordem, em que a pressão diastólica era função da idade e do tempo de serviço do operário. Ao ajustar o modelo, pode-se prever que, no início do trabalho no curtume, em média, cada período de um ano está associado com um aumento de cerca de 1,5 mmHg na pressão diastólica. O ajuste obtido realça um componente diretamente associado ao trabalho como parte do coeficiente de aumento da pressão no grupo estudado. Esse componente é o dobro daquele diretamente associado com a idade.

Characterization of time-resolved laser differential phase using 3D complementary cumulative distribution functions

An experimental method for characterizing the time-resolved phase noise of a fast switching tunable laser is discussed. The method experimentally determines a complementary cumulative distribution function of the laser's differential phase as a function of time after a switching event. A time resolved bit error rate of differential quadrature phase shift keying formatted data, calculated using the phase noise measurements, was fitted to an experimental time-resolved bit error rate measurement using a field programmable gate array, finding a good agreement between the time-resolved bit error rates.

Urban network travel time estimation from stop-line loop detector data and signal controller data

This paper presents a model to estimate travel time using cumulative plots. Three different cases considered are i) case-Det, for only detector data; ii) case-DetSig, for detector data and signal controller data and iii) case-DetSigSFR: for detector data, signal controller data and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different detection intervals is evaluated. It is observed that detection interval is not critical if signal timings are available. Comparable accuracy can be obtained from larger detection interval with signal timings or from shorter detection interval without signal timings. The performance for case-DetSig and for case-DetSigSFR is consistent with accuracy generally more than 95% whereas, case-Det is highly sensitive to the signal phases in the detection interval and its performance is uncertain if detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycles.

Assessment of lifetime cumulative sun exposure using a self-administered questionnaire : reliability of two approaches

Few studies have evaluated the reliability of lifetime sun exposure estimated from inquiring about the number of hours people spent outdoors in a given period on a typical weekday or weekend day (the time-based approach). Some investigations have suggested that women have a particularly difficult task in estimating time outdoors in adulthood due to their family and occupational roles. We hypothesized that people might gain additional memory cues and estimate lifetime hours spent outdoors more reliably if asked about time spent outdoors according to specific activities (an activity-based approach). Using self-administered, mailed questionnaires, test-retest responses to time-based and to activity-based approaches were evaluated in 124 volunteer radiologic technologist participants from the United States: 64 females and 60 males 48 to 80 years of age. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were used to evaluate the test-retest reliability of average number of hours spent outdoors in the summer estimated for each approach. We tested the differences between the two ICCs, corresponding to each approach, using a t test with the variance of the difference estimated by the jackknife method. During childhood and adolescence, the two approaches gave similar ICCs for average numbers of hours spent outdoors in the summer. By contrast, compared with the time-based approach, the activity-based approach showed significantly higher ICCs during adult ages (0.69 versus 0.43, P = 0.003) and over the lifetime (0.69 versus 0.52, P = 0.05); the higher ICCs for the activity-based questionnaire were primarily derived from the results for females. Research is needed to further improve the activity-based questionnaire approach for long-term sun exposure assessment. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2009;18(2):464–71)

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Estimation of travel time on urban networks with midlink sources and sinks

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of average travel time on signalized urban networks by integrating cumulative plots and probe data. This integration aims to reduce the relative deviations in the cumulative plots due to midlink sources and sinks. During undersaturated traffic conditions, the concept of a virtual probe is introduced, and therefore, accurate travel time can be obtained when a real probe is unavailable. For oversaturated traffic conditions, only one probe per travel time estimation interval—360 s or 3% of vehicles traversing the link as a probe—has the potential to provide accurate travel time.

Arterial travel time estimation : revisiting the classical procedure

Travel time is an important network performance measure and it quantifies congestion in a manner easily understood by all transport users. In urban networks, travel time estimation is challenging due to number of reasons such as, fluctuations in traffic flow due to traffic signals, significant flow to/from mid link sinks/sources, etc. The classical analytical procedure utilizes cumulative plots at upstream and downstream locations for estimating travel time between the two locations. In this paper, we discuss about the issues and challenges with classical analytical procedure such as its vulnerability to non conservation of flow between the two locations. The complexity with respect to exit movement specific travel time is discussed. Recently, we have developed a methodology utilising classical procedure to estimate average travel time and its statistic on urban links (Bhaskar, Chung et al. 2010). Where, detector, signal and probe vehicle data is fused. In this paper we extend the methodology for route travel time estimation and test its performance using simulation. The originality is defining cumulative plots for each exit turning movement utilising historical database which is self updated after each estimation. The performance is also compared with a method solely based on probe (Probe-only). The performance of the proposed methodology has been found insensitive to different route flow, with average accuracy of more than 94% given a probe per estimation interval which is more than 5% increment in accuracy with respect to Probe-only method.

Fusing loop detector and probe vehicle data to estimate travel time statistics on signalized urban networks

This article presents a methodology that integrates cumulative plots with probe vehicle data for estimation of travel time statistics (average, quartile) on urban networks. The integration reduces relative deviation among the cumulative plots so that the classical analytical procedure of defining the area between the plots as the total travel time can be applied. For quartile estimation, a slicing technique is proposed. The methodology is validated with real data from Lucerne, Switzerland and it is concluded that the travel time estimates from the proposed methodology are statistically equivalent to the observed values.