Aufbau des Crystal-Ball-Detektorsystems und Untersuchung der Helizitätsasymmetrie in gamma p p pi 0 pi 0

Seit Frühjahr 2004 wird der Crystal Ball-Detektor am Photonenstrahl des Mainzer Mikrotrons für Koinzidenzexperimente zur Untersuchung der Struktur der Nukleonen genutzt. Aufbau und Inbetriebnahme des Kalorimeters, insbesondere der neuen Detektorelektronik, bilden einen Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit. Komponenten wurden neu konstruiert oder auf ihre Verwendbarkeit geprüft und nögenfalls modifiziert. Nach erfolgreichem Abschluss der Aufbauphase wurden Experimente zur Produktion von $pi$- und $eta$-Mesonen am Proton mit mehr als 2500 Stunden Strahlbetrieb durchgeführt. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt der Dissertation bildet die erstmalige Messung der Helizitätsasymmetrie I$^odot$ in der Photoproduktion zweier neutraler Pionen. Zum Verstädnis des Anregungsspektrums der Nukleonen müssen Experimente mit polarisierten Photonen und/oder polarisierten Targets durchgeführt werden. Da Modelle trotz unterschiedlicher Annahmen unpolarisiert gemessene Größen vergleichbar gut reproduzieren, ist die Bestimmung der auf Modellunterschiede empfindlichen Polarisationsobservablen unumgäglich. Im Gegensatz zur Einpionproduktion tritt in der Zweipionproduktion eine Einfachpolarisationsobservable auf, die mit zirkular polarisierten Photonen am unpolarisierten Proton gemessen werden kann. Diese wurde in der Reaktion $gamma$ p $rightarrow$ p $pi^0$ $pi^0$ und in $gamma$ p $rightarrow$ p $pi^+$ $pi^-$ energie- und winkelabhägig bestimmt. Die Ergebnisse weichen stark von den Modellvorhersagen ab.

21st century quality: Looking into the “Crystal ball”

The discussion of possible scenarios for the future of Quality is on the priority list of major Quality Practitioners Societies. EOQ – European Organization for Quality (EOQ, 2014) main team for its 58th EOQ-Congress held June 2014 in Göteborg was “Managing Challenges in Quality Leadership” and ASQ - American Society for Quality (ASQ, 2015) appointed “the Future of Quality” for Quality Progress Magazine November 2015 issue. In addition, the ISO 9001:2008 revision process carried by ISO/TC 176 aims to assure that ISO 9001:2015 International Standard remains stable for the next 10 years (ISO, 2014) contributing to an increased discussion on the future of quality. The purpose of this research is to review available Quality Management approaches and outline, adding an academic perspective, expected developments for Quality within the 21st Century. This paper follows a qualitative approach, although data from international organizations is used. A literature review has been undertaken on quality management past and potential future trends. Based on these findings a model is proposed for organization quality management development and propositions for the future of quality management are advanced. Firstly, a state of the art of existing Quality Management approaches is presented, for example, like Total Quality Management (TQM) and Quality Gurus, ISO 9000 International Standards Series (with an outline of the expected changes for ISO 9001:2015), Six Sigma and Business Excellence Models.Secondly, building on theoretical and managerial approaches, a two dimensional matrix – Quality Engineering (QE - technical aspects of quality) and Quality Management (QM: soft aspects of quality) - is presented, outlining five proposed characterizations of Quality maturity levels and giving insights for applications and future developments. Literature review highlights that QM and QE may be addressing similar quality issues but their approaches are different in terms of scope breadth and intensity and they ought to complement and reciprocally reinforce one another. The challenges organizations face within the 21st century have stronger uncertainty, complexity, and differentiation. Two main propositions are advanced as relevant for 21st Century Quality: - QM importance for the sustainable success of organizations will increase and they should be aware of the larger ecosystem to be managed for improvement, possibly leading to the emergence of a new Quality paradigm, The Civilizacional Excellence paradigm. - QE should get more attention from QM and the Quality professionals will have to: a) Master and apply in wider contexts and in additional depth the Quality Tools (basic, intermediate and advanced); b) Have the soft skills needed for its success; c) Be results oriented and better understand and demonstrate the relationships between approaches and results These propositions challenge both scholars and practitioners for a sustained and supported discussion on the future of Quality. “All things are ready, if our mind be so.” (Shakespeare, Henry V, circa 1599).

First doubly polarised photoproduction on 3 He at the photon beam of MAMI

Im Juli 2009 wurde am Mainzer Mikrotron (MAMI) erstmal ein Experiment durchgeführt, bei dem ein polarisiertes 3He Target mit Photonen im Energiebereich von 200 bis 800 MeV untersucht wurde. Das Ziel dieses Experiments war die Überprüfung der Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn Summenregel am Neutron. Die Verwendung der Messdaten welche mit dem polarisierten 3He Target gewonnen wurden, geben - im Vergleich mit den bereits existieren Daten vom Deuteron - aufgrund der Spin-Struktur des 3He einen komplementären und direkteren Zugang zum Neutron. Die Messung des totalen helizitätsabhängigen Photoabsorptions-Wirkungsquerschnitts wurde mittels eines energiemarkierten Strahls von zirkular polarisierten Photonen, welcher auf das longitudinal polarisierte 3He Target trifft, durchgeführt. Als Produktdetektoren kamen der Crystal Ball (4π Raumabdeckung), TAPS (als ”Vorwärtswand”) sowie ein Schwellen-Cherenkov-Detektor (online Veto zur Reduktion von elektromagnetischen Ereignissen) zum Einsatz. Planung und Aufbau der verschiedenen komponenten Teile des 3He Experimentaufbaus war ein entscheidender Teil dieser Dissertation und wird detailliert in der vorliegenden Arbeit beschrieben. Das Detektorsystem als auch die Analyse-Methoden wurden durch die Messung des unpolarisierten, totalen und inklusiven Photoabsoprtions-Wirkungsquerschnitts an flüssigem Wasserstoff getestet. Hierbei zeigten die Ergebnisse eine gute Übereinstimmung mit bereits zuvor publizierten Daten. Vorläufige Ergebnisse des unpolarisierten totalen Photoabsorptions-Wirkungsquerschnitts sowie der helizitätsabhängige Unterschied zwischen Photoabsorptions-Wirkungsquerschnitten an 3He im Vergleich zu verschiedenen theoretischen Modellen werden vorgestellt.

Modelo de gestión de la red de distribución tercerizada segmento tiendas región central, en productos de consumo masivo, mediante datos de panel y simulación de Monte Carlo.

El proyecto de investigación parte de la dinámica del modelo de distribución tercerizada para una compañía de consumo masivo en Colombia, especializada en lácteos, que para este estudio se ha denominado “Lactosa”. Mediante datos de panel con estudio de caso, se construyen dos modelos de demanda por categoría de producto y distribuidor y mediante simulación estocástica, se identifican las variables relevantes que inciden sus estructuras de costos. El problema se modela a partir del estado de resultados por cada uno de los cuatro distribuidores analizados en la región central del país. Se analiza la estructura de costos y el comportamiento de ventas dado un margen (%) de distribución logístico, en función de las variables independientes relevantes, y referidas al negocio, al mercado y al entorno macroeconómico, descritas en el objeto de estudio. Entre otros hallazgos, se destacan brechas notorias en los costos de distribución y costos en la fuerza de ventas, pese a la homogeneidad de segmentos. Identifica generadores de valor y costos de mayor dispersión individual y sugiere uniones estratégicas de algunos grupos de distribuidores. La modelación con datos de panel, identifica las variables relevantes de gestión que inciden sobre el volumen de ventas por categoría y distribuidor, que focaliza los esfuerzos de la dirección. Se recomienda disminuir brechas y promover desde el productor estrategias focalizadas a la estandarización de procesos internos de los distribuidores; promover y replicar los modelos de análisis, sin pretender remplazar conocimiento de expertos. La construcción de escenarios fortalece de manera conjunta y segura la posición competitiva de la compañía y sus distribuidores.

Las opciones reales como herramienta de valoración de proyectos

La presente tesis tiene como propósito dar a conocer una forma de valoración de proyectos dinámica, lejos de lo que se utiliza en la actualidad que es el flujo de fondos descontados, el cual no permite que el proyecto se adapte a las posibles realidades que se presenten en la marcha. El documento consta de 4 capítulos. El capítulo uno, da a conocer que es un proyecto de inversión y explica la valoración tradicional, con los conceptos de Valor Actual Neto y Tasa Interna de Retorno. Se plantea tanto un análisis determinístico realizado con la ayuda de hojas electrónicas Excel y dinámico de la mano del programa de simulación Crystal Ball, finalmente se revisan las ventajas que ofrece esta metodología de valoración. El capítulo dos se refiere a los derivados financieros, centrando la atención en las opciones, concepto, tipos, variables que influyen en su precio y estrategias, posteriormente se introduce el tema de las opciones reales y la relación que tienen con las financieras. El capítulo tres refleja el objetivo de la tesis, porque presenta las formas de valoración mediante opciones reales, primero se desarrolla el modelo binomial y luego el de Black and Scholes, también se presenta las ventajas frente al modelo de flujos descontados y los problemas que la metodología de opciones reales presenta. Finalmente en el capítulo cuatro se desarrolla un caso práctico de valoración con el método de flujos descontados determinístico y estocástico y con los dos modelos antes mencionados de opciones reales.

Análisis de riesgo de un proyecto de inversión de generación eléctrica en el Ecuador

El Sector Eléctrico constituye parte fundamental en el desarrollo del país, cada proyecto que se realice implica un aporte considerable en beneficio del país, al mismo tiempo representa un esfuerzo económico importante. Realizar un correcto análisis de riesgo es primordial al momento de planificar el desarrollo de un proyecto. El Sector Eléctrico está clasificado en 3 partes, Generación, Transmisión y Distribución. Para este trabajo se considera la Generación. Los casos de estudio son considerados con información histórica y herramientas de análisis de riesgo que son de gran utilidad para este tipo de trabajos. Durante el desarrollo de esta investigación se analiza la estructura del Sector Eléctrico, su operatividad financiera, teorías sobre análisis de riesgo, herramientas y metodologías que serán aplicadas para las particularidades del Sector. Para obtener resultados más cercanos a la realidad se utiliza la metodología Monte Carlo utilizando la herramienta Crystal Ball. Con esto se presentan datos de un proyecto de generación x y se evidencia la factibilidad o no de invertir en el Sector Eléctrico.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken apart from a single Guidance Note (GN5, RICS 2003) stressing the importance of recognising uncertainty in valuation but not proffering any particular solution. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.

Uncertainty and feasibility studies: an Italian case study

Uncertainty affects all aspects of the property market but one area where the impact of uncertainty is particularly significant is within feasibility analyses. Any development is impacted by differences between market conditions at the conception of the project and the market realities at the time of completion. The feasibility study needs to address the possible outcomes based on an understanding of the current market. This requires the appraiser to forecast the most likely outcome relating to the sale price of the completed development, the construction costs and the timing of both. It also requires the appraiser to understand the impact of finance on the project. All these issues are time sensitive and analysis needs to be undertaken to show the impact of time to the viability of the project. The future is uncertain and a full feasibility analysis should be able to model the upside and downside risk pertaining to a range of possible outcomes. Feasibility studies are extensively used in Italy to determine land value but they tend to be single point analysis based upon a single set of “likely” inputs. In this paper we look at the practical impact of uncertainty in variables using a simulation model (Crystal Ball ©) with an actual case study of an urban redevelopment plan for an Italian Municipality. This allows the appraiser to address the issues of uncertainty involved and thus provide the decision maker with a better understanding of the risk of development. This technique is then refined using a “two-dimensional technique” to distinguish between “uncertainty” and “variability” and thus create a more robust model.

Discounted cash flow: accounting for uncertainty

Valuation is the process of estimating price. The methods used to determine value attempt to model the thought processes of the market and thus estimate price by reference to observed historic data. This can be done using either an explicit model, that models the worth calculation of the most likely bidder, or an implicit model, that that uses historic data suitably adjusted as a short cut to determine value by reference to previous similar sales. The former is generally referred to as the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model and the latter as the capitalisation (or All Risk Yield) model. However, regardless of the technique used, the valuation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable data available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the estimate of price. In a previous paper, we have considered the way in which uncertainty is allowed for in the capitalisation model in the UK. In this paper, we extend the analysis to look at the way in which uncertainty can be incorporated into the explicit DCF model. This is done by recognising that the input variables are uncertain and will have a probability distribution pertaining to each of them. Thus buy utilising a probability-based valuation model (using Crystal Ball) it is possible to incorporate uncertainty into the analysis and address the shortcomings of the current model. Although the capitalisation model is discussed, the paper concentrates upon the application of Crystal Ball to the Discounted Cash Flow approach.

The uncertainty of valuation

Valuation is often said to be “an art not a science” but this relates to the techniques employed to calculate value not to the underlying concept itself. Valuation is the process of estimating price in the market place. Yet, such an estimation will be affected by uncertainties. Uncertainty in the comparable information available; uncertainty in the current and future market conditions and uncertainty in the specific inputs for the subject property. These input uncertainties will translate into an uncertainty with the output figure, the valuation. The degree of the uncertainties will vary according to the level of market activity; the more active a market, the more credence will be given to the input information. In the UK at the moment the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) is considering ways in which the uncertainty of the output figure, the valuation, can be conveyed to the use of the valuation, but as yet no definitive view has been taken. One of the major problems is that Valuation models (in the UK) are based upon comparable information and rely upon single inputs. They are not probability based, yet uncertainty is probability driven. In this paper, we discuss the issues underlying uncertainty in valuations and suggest a probability-based model (using Crystal Ball) to address the shortcomings of the current model.