Br-IndustrialExpert: um framework para análise de dependabilidade de processos industriais

There is a growing need to develop new tools to help end users in tasks related to the design, monitoring, maintenance and commissioning of critical infrastructures. The complexity of the industrial environment, for example, requires that these tools have flexible features in order to provide valuable data for the designers at the design phases. Furthermore, it is known that industrial processes have stringent requirements for dependability, since failures can cause economic losses, environmental damages and danger to people. The lack of tools that enable the evaluation of faults in critical infrastructures could mitigate these problems. Accordingly, the said work presents developing a framework for analyzing of dependability for critical infrastructures. The proposal allows the modeling of critical infrastructure, mapping its components to a Fault Tree. Then the mathematical model generated is used for dependability analysis of infrastructure, relying on the equipment and its interconnections failures. Finally, typical scenarios of industrial environments are used to validate the proposal

Reliability issues related to the usage of Cloud Computing in Critical Infrastructures

The use of cloud computing is extending to all kind of systems, including the ones that are part of Critical Infrastructures, and measuring the reliability is becoming more difficult. Computing is becoming the 5th utility, in part thanks to the use of cloud services. Cloud computing is used now by all types of systems and organizations, including critical infrastructure, creating hidden inter-dependencies on both public and private cloud models. This paper investigates the use of cloud computing by critical infrastructure systems, the reliability and continuity of services risks associated with their use by critical systems. Some examples are presented of their use by different critical industries, and even when the use of cloud computing by such systems is not widely extended, there is a future risk that this paper presents. The concepts of macro and micro dependability and the model we introduce are useful for inter-dependency definition and for analyzing the resilience of systems that depend on other systems, specifically in the cloud model.

Consequence modelling,vulnerability assessment and fuzzy fault tree analysis of hazardous storages in an industrial area

The hazards associated with major accident hazard (MAH) industries are fire, explosion and toxic gas releases. Of these, toxic gas release is the worst as it has the potential to cause extensive fatalities. Qualitative and quantitative hazard analyses are essential for the identitication and quantification of the hazards associated with chemical industries. This research work presents the results of a consequence analysis carried out to assess the damage potential of the hazardous material storages in an industrial area of central Kerala, India. A survey carried out in the major accident hazard (MAH) units in the industrial belt revealed that the major hazardous chemicals stored by the various industrial units are ammonia, chlorine, benzene, naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone and LPG. The damage potential of the above chemicals is assessed using consequence modelling. Modelling of pool fires for naphtha, cyclohexane, cyclohexanone, benzene and ammonia are carried out using TNO model. Vapor cloud explosion (VCE) modelling of LPG, cyclohexane and benzene are carried out using TNT equivalent model. Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) modelling of LPG is also carried out. Dispersion modelling of toxic chemicals like chlorine, ammonia and benzene is carried out using the ALOHA air quality model. Threat zones for different hazardous storages are estimated based on the consequence modelling. The distance covered by the threat zone was found to be maximum for chlorine release from a chlor-alkali industry located in the area. The results of consequence modelling are useful for the estimation of individual risk and societal risk in the above industrial area.Vulnerability assessment is carried out using probit functions for toxic, thermal and pressure loads. Individual and societal risks are also estimated at different locations. Mapping of threat zones due to different incident outcome cases from different MAH industries is done with the help of Are GIS.Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an established technique for hazard evaluation. This technique has the advantage of being both qualitative and quantitative, if the probabilities and frequencies of the basic events are known. However it is often difficult to estimate precisely the failure probability of the components due to insufficient data or vague characteristics of the basic event. It has been reported that availability of the failure probability data pertaining to local conditions is surprisingly limited in India. This thesis outlines the generation of failure probability values of the basic events that lead to the release of chlorine from the storage and filling facility of a major chlor-alkali industry located in the area using expert elicitation and proven fuzzy logic. Sensitivity analysis has been done to evaluate the percentage contribution of each basic event that could lead to chlorine release. Two dimensional fuzzy fault tree analysis (TDFFTA) has been proposed for balancing the hesitation factor invo1ved in expert elicitation .

Securing critical infrastructures and critical control systems: approaches for threat protection

The increased use of technology is necessary in order for industrial control systems to maintain and monitor industrial, infrastructural, or environmental processes. The need to secure and identify threats to the system is equally critical. Securing Critical Infrastructures and Critical Control Systems: Approaches for Threat Protection provides a full and detailed understanding of the vulnerabilities and security threats that exist within an industrial control system. This collection of research defines and analyzes the technical, procedural, and managerial responses to securing these systems.

A critical appraisal of the legal framework governing the approval in microfinance Establishments within CEMAC

During the mid 80 19s and the early 90 19s the Banking sector of the CEMAC sub-region experienced crisis. This could be seen from the numerous liquidation of Banks within the sub-region during this period, microfinance establishments found a place as an alternative financial institution involved in the provision of savings and loans to the masses. The exercise of the activities of microfinance necessitates an application for approval form the monetary authority. Their potential managers and auditors must equally apply and obtain a license before functioning. After this approval has been obtained the microfinance establishment must register with the National Credit Council and the Trade and Personal Property Credit Register. // Durant les années 80 et au début des années 90 le secteur Bancaire de la sous-région CEMAC on vécue une crise, ceci pouvait ce voit par de nombreuse liquidation des Banques au sein de la sous-région pendant cette période. Les Etablissement de Micro finance ont trouve une place comme une institution financière alternative s’impliquant dans la fourniture de l’épargne et des prêts pour la masses. Mais l'exercice de l'activité de microfinance exige une demande d'agrément remise par l'autorité monétaire après confirmation de la commission bancaire. Mais avant que cet agrément soit remis, ils doivent fournir certain documents et informations. Les microfinances sont également oblige de fournir certaines documents et information s'il veut offrir un agence dans un du état membre de la CEMAC. Quand cette agrément est remise il sont les obligations administrative et professionnelle a remplir. Ceci consiste de s’inscrire auprès du Conseil National du Crédit et le Registre du Commerce et du Crédit Mobilier, adhérer a une Association Professionnelle, mais ils sont le choix adhérer à un réseau ou de poursuivre les activités indépendamment. L'autorité monétaire peut unilatéralement retrait la décision d'agrément pour un raison ou l'autre. Cependant, la décision de retrait de l'agrément est assujettir à un appel devant le conseil d'administration de la BEAC. La commission bancaire a prévu un ensemble de sanctions pour s'assurer que une personne ou établissement en défaut soit appelle en ordre. // Cameroon, Micro-finance, CEMAC, COBAC, Legislation

A Fully Bayesian Approach for Combining Multilevel Failure Information in Fault Tree Quantification and Corresponding Optimal Resource Allocation

This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach that simultaneously combines basic event and statistically independent higher event-level failure data in fault tree quantification. Such higher-level data could correspond to train, sub-system or system failure events. The full Bayesian approach also allows the highest-level data that are usually available for existing facilities to be automatically propagated to lower levels. A simple example illustrates the proposed approach. The optimal allocation of resources for collecting additional data from a choice of different level events is also presented. The optimization is achieved using a genetic algorithm.

Detection and Tracking of Dynamic Objects. A MultiRobot approach to Critical Infrastructures Surveillance.

Despite that Critical Infrastructures (CIs) security and surveillance are a growing concern for many countries and companies, Multi Robot Systems (MRSs) have not been yet broadly used in this type of facilities. This dissertation presents a novel study of the challenges arisen by the implementation of this type of systems and proposes solutions to specific problems. First, a comprehensive analysis of different types of CIs has been carried out, emphasizing the influence of the different characteristics of the facilities in the design of a security and surveillance MRS. One of the most important needs for the surveillance of a CI is the detection of intruders. From a technical point of view this problem can be abstracted as equivalent to the Detection and Tracking of Mobile Objects (DATMO). This dissertation proposes algorithms to solve this specific problem in a CI environment. Using 3D range images of the environment as input data, two detection algorithms for ground robots have been developed. These detection algorithms provide a list of moving objects in the robot detection area. Direct image differentiation and computer vision techniques are used when the robot is static. Alternatively, multi-layer ground reconstructions are compared to detect the dynamic objects when the robot is moving. Since CIs usually spread over large areas, it is very useful to incorporate aerial vehicles in the surveillance MRS. Therefore, a moving object detection algorithm for aerial vehicles has been also developed. This algorithm compares the real optical flow obtained from a down-face oriented camera with an artificial optical flow computed using a RANSAC based homography matrix. Two tracking algorithms have been developed to follow the moving objects trajectories. These algorithms can efficiently handle occlusions and crossings, as well as exchange information among robots. The multirobot tracking can be applied to any type of communication structure: centralized, decentralized or a combination of both. Even more, the developed tracking algorithms are independent of the detection algorithms and could be potentially used with other detection procedures or even with static sensors, such as cameras. In addition, using the 3D point clouds available to the robots, a relative localization algorithm has been developed to improve the position estimation of a given robot with observations from other robots. All the developed algorithms have been extensively tested in different simulated CIs using the Webots robotics simulator. Furthermore, the algorithms have also been validated with real robots operating in real scenarios. In conclusion, this dissertation presents a multirobot approach to Critical Infrastructure Surveillance, mainly focusing on Detecting and Tracking Dynamic Objects.

Expert systems for fault tree synthesis

Hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies on chemical process plants are very time consuming, and often tedious, tasks. The requirement for HAZOP studies is that a team of experts systematically analyse every conceivable process deviation, identifying possible causes and any hazards that may result. The systematic nature of the task, and the fact that some team members may be unoccupied for much of the time, can lead to tedium, which in turn may lead to serious errors or omissions. An aid to HAZOP are fault trees, which present the system failure logic graphically such that the study team can readily assimilate their findings. Fault trees are also useful to the identification of design weaknesses, and may additionally be used to estimate the likelihood of hazardous events occurring. The one drawback of fault trees is that they are difficult to generate by hand. This is because of the sheer size and complexity of modern process plants. The work in this thesis proposed a computer-based method to aid the development of fault trees for chemical process plants. The aim is to produce concise, structured fault trees that are easy for analysts to understand. Standard plant input-output equation models for major process units are modified such that they include ancillary units and pipework. This results in a reduction in the nodes required to represent a plant. Control loops and protective systems are modelled as operators which act on process variables. This modelling maintains the functionality of loops, making fault tree generation easier and improving the structure of the fault trees produced. A method, called event ordering, is proposed which allows the magnitude of deviations of controlled or measured variables to be defined in terms of the control loops and protective systems with which they are associated.

Autonomic and embedded wireless sensor protocols for critical infrastructures

The tragic events of September 11th ushered a new era of unprecedented challenges. Our nation has to be protected from the alarming threats of adversaries. These threats exploit the nation's critical infrastructures affecting all sectors of the economy. There is the need for pervasive monitoring and decentralized control of the nation's critical infrastructures. The communications needs of monitoring and control of critical infrastructures was traditionally catered for by wired communication systems. These technologies ensured high reliability and bandwidth but are however very expensive, inflexible and do not support mobility and pervasive monitoring. The communication protocols are Ethernet-based that used contention access protocols which results in high unsuccessful transmission and delay. An emerging class of wireless networks, named embedded wireless sensor and actuator networks has potential benefits for real-time monitoring and control of critical infrastructures. The use of embedded wireless networks for monitoring and control of critical infrastructures requires secure, reliable and timely exchange of information among controllers, distributed sensors and actuators. The exchange of information is over shared wireless media. However, wireless media is highly unpredictable due to path loss, shadow fading and ambient noise. Monitoring and control applications have stringent requirements on reliability, delay and security. The primary issue addressed in this dissertation is the impact of wireless media in harsh industrial environment on the reliable and timely delivery of critical data. In the first part of the dissertation, a combined networking and information theoretic approach was adopted to determine the transmit power required to maintain a minimum wireless channel capacity for reliable data transmission. The second part described a channel-aware scheduling scheme that ensured efficient utilization of the wireless link and guaranteed delay. Various analytical evaluations and simulations are used to evaluate and validate the feasibility of the methodologies and demonstrate that the protocols achieved reliable and real-time data delivery in wireless industrial networks.

Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Uma metodologia para modelagem e avaliação da dependabilidade de redes industriais sem fio

Ensuring the dependability requirements is essential for the industrial applications since faults may cause failures whose consequences result in economic losses, environmental damage or hurting people. Therefore, faced from the relevance of topic, this thesis proposes a methodology for the dependability evaluation of industrial wireless networks (WirelessHART, ISA100.11a, WIA-PA) on early design phase. However, the proposal can be easily adapted to maintenance and expansion stages of network. The proposal uses graph theory and fault tree formalism to create automatically an analytical model from a given wireless industrial network topology, where the dependability can be evaluated. The evaluation metrics supported are the reliability, availability, MTTF (mean time to failure), importance measures of devices, redundancy aspects and common cause failures. It must be emphasized that the proposal is independent of any tool to evaluate quantitatively the target metrics. However, due to validation issues it was used a tool widely accepted on academy for this purpose (SHARPE). In addition, an algorithm to generate the minimal cut sets, originally applied on graph theory, was adapted to fault tree formalism to guarantee the scalability of methodology in wireless industrial network environments (< 100 devices). Finally, the proposed methodology was validate from typical scenarios found in industrial environments, as star, line, cluster and mesh topologies. It was also evaluated scenarios with common cause failures and best practices to guide the design of an industrial wireless network. For guarantee scalability requirements, it was analyzed the performance of methodology in different scenarios where the results shown the applicability of proposal for networks typically found in industrial environments

Formal development and quantitative verification of dependable systems

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