Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Enhancing human security through crisis management : opportunities and challenges for learning

Inhimilliseen turvallisuuteen kriisinhallinnan kautta – oppimisen mahdollisuuksia ja haasteita Kylmän sodan jälkeen aseelliset konfliktit ovat yleensä alkaneet niin sanotuissa hauraissa valtioissa ja köyhissä maissa, ne ovat olleet valtioiden sisäisiä ja niihin on osallistunut ei-valtiollisia aseellisia ryhmittymiä. Usein ne johtavat konfliktikierteeseen, jossa sota ja vakaammat olot vaihtelevat. Koska kuolleisuus konflikteissa voi jäädä alle kansainvälisen määritelmän (1000 kuollutta vuodessa), kutsun tällaisia konflikteja ”uusiksi konflikteiksi”. Kansainvälinen yhteisö on pyrkinyt kehittämään kriisinhallinnan ja rauhanrakentamisen malleja, jotta pysyvä rauhantila saataisiin aikaiseksi. Inhimillinen turvallisuus perustuu näkemykseen, jossa kunnioitetaan jokaisen yksilön ihmisoikeuksia ja jolla on vaikutusta myös kriisinhallinnan ja rauhanrakentamisen toteuttamiseen. Tutkimukseen kuuluu kaksi empiiristä osaa: Delfoi tulevaisuuspaneeliprosessin sekä kriisinhallintahenkilöstön haastattelut. Viisitoista eri alojen kriisinhallinta-asiantuntijaa osallistui paneeliin, joka toteutettiin vuonna 2008. Paneelin tulosten mukaan tulevat konfliktit usein ovat uusien konfliktien kaltaisia. Lisäksi kriisinhallintahenkilöstöltä edellytetään vuorovaikutus- ja kommunikaatiokykyä ja luonnollisesti myös varsinaisia ammatillisia valmiuksia. Tulevaisuuspaneeli korosti vuorovaikutus- ja kommunikaatiotaitoja erityisesti siviilikriisinhallintahenkilöstön kompetensseissa, mutta samat taidot painottuivat sotilaallisen kriisinhallinnan henkilöstön kompetensseissakin. Kriisinhallinnassa tarvitaan myös selvää työnjakoa eri toimijoiden kesken. Kosovossa työskennelleen henkilöstön haastatteluaineisto koostui yhteensä 27 teemahaastattelusta. Haastateltavista 9 oli ammattiupseeria, 10 reservistä rekrytoitua rauhanturvaajaa ja 8 siviilikriisinhallinnassa työskennellyttä henkilöä. Haastattelut toteutettiin helmi- ja kesäkuun välisenä aikana vuonna 2008. Haastattelutuloksissa korostui vuorovaikutus- ja kommunikaatiotaitojen merkitys, sillä monissa käytännön tilanteissa haastateltavat olivat ratkoneet ongelmia yhteistyössä muun kriisinhallintahenkilöstön tai paikallisten asukkaiden kanssa. Kriisinhallinnassa toteutui oppimisprosesseja, jotka usein olivat luonteeltaan myönteisiä ja informaalisia. Tällaisten onnistumisten vaikutus yksilön minäkuvaan oli myönteinen. Tällaisia prosesseja voidaan kuvata ”itseä koskeviksi oivalluksiksi”. Kriisinhallintatehtävissä oppimisella on erityinen merkitys, jos halutaan kehittää toimintoja inhimillisen turvallisuuden edistämiseksi. Siksi on tärkeää, että kriisinhallintakoulutusta ja kriisinhallintatyössä oppimista kehitetään ottamaan huomioon oppimisen eri tasot ja ulottuvuudet sekä niiden merkitys. Informaaliset oppimisen muodot olisi otettava paremmin huomioon kriisinhallintakoulutusta ja kriisinhallintatehtävissä oppimista kehitettäessä. Palautejärjestelmää olisi kehitettävä eri tavoin. Koko kriisinhallintaoperaation on saatava tarvittaessa myös kriittistä palautetta onnistumisista ja epäonnistumisista. Monet kriisinhallinnassa työskennelleet kaipaavat kunnollista palautetta työrupeamastaan. Liian rutiininomaiseksi koettu palaute ei edistä yksilön oppimista. Spontaanisti monet haastatellut pitivät tärkeänä, että kriisinhallinnassa työskennelleillä olisi mahdollisuus debriefing- tyyppiseen kotiinpaluukeskusteluun. Pelkkä tällainen mahdollisuus ilmeisesti voisi olla monelle myönteinen uutinen, vaikka tilaisuutta ei hyödynnettäisikään. Paluu kriisinhallintatehtävistä Suomeen on monelle haasteellisempaa kuin näissä tehtävissä työskentelyn aloittaminen ulkomailla. Tutkimuksen tulokset kannustavat tutkimaan kriisinhallintaa oppimisen näkökulmasta. On myös olennaista, että kriisinhallinnan palautejärjestelmiä kehitetään mahdollisimman hyvin edistämään sekä yksilöllistä että organisatorista oppimista kriisinhallinnassa. Kriisinhallintaoperaatio on oppimisympäristö. Kriisinhallintahenkilöstön kommunikaatio- ja vuorovaikutustaitojen kehittäminen on olennaista tavoiteltaessa kestävää rauhanprosessia, jossa konfliktialueen asukkaatkin ovat mukana.

Violations of children's rights in armed conflicts : international treaties, observations by peacekeepers and crisis management training in Finland

Ninety-nine Finnish peacekeepers, who had been serving in 15 different operations around the world, participated in the study (8 women, 27-52 years old, m = 37.4, SD = 8.9; and 91 men, 21-69 years old, m = 41.4, SD = 10.2). Three military crisis management trainers from the Finnish Defence Forces International Centre also participated in the study. The data was collected with two webbased questionnaires. In addition two interviews were made with specialists of civilian crisis management in Finland. The study also provides an overview of international treaties concerning children’s rights in armed conflict. The results show that 48.7 % of dangers for children in conflicts reported by the peacekeepers were related to physical injury (e.g. landmines and traffic), and 27.4 % were related to social problems (e.g. poverty, child soldiers, and trafficking). 24.1 % of the peacekeepers had made observations of children’s rights violations either often or very often during peacekeeping operations. 49.6 % of the observations were related to social problems (e.g. child labour or being forced to beg), and 33.0 % were related to physical injury (e.g. assault). Frequency of observation of children’s rights violations was not associated with either sex or military degree of the peacekeepers; instead it was significantly correlated with the peacekeepers’ degree of knowledge of EU’s child protection guidelines. On the basis of the results, it is recommended that knowledge about children’s rights and protection should be included in the training of Finnish crisis management personnel to a much higher degree than at the present.

2014 Ukraine crisis – Implications for corporate crisis management

In the late year 2013 events started to unfold in Ukraine’s capital city Kiev that would change the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia. The tension had been building for years between the two parties with Ukraine in the middle and during 2014 the tension blew up and events started to escalate into a crisis, which we now know as the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The crisis would include political, economic, and even military actions by all the parties involved with Ukraine slipping close to civil war. Both political and economic hardships followed for others as well with both the EU and Russia placing heavy political and economic sanctions on each other. Most notably in terms of this paper, the Russian federation placed total import embargo sanctions on food imports from the EU and some other countries. This meant that a Finnish dairy company, Valio, had to engage in corporate crisis management as almost a fifth of its total revenue was cut in a heartbeat. Valio had been prepared for some kind of complications with their Russian market as events started to unfold in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014 but never did they suspect that a complete shutdown of the Russian market would follow. The company is still recovering after more than a year after the sanctions were posed and have not been able to supplement the lost revenue streams. This research is a qualitative research aiming to find answers to the main questions: 1) What is the 2014 Ukraine crisis and what kind of special implications does it have and 2) How did the crisis affect Valio and how did Valio fare in its crisis management efforts. The data has been collected both from secondary document sources and primary sources. The main findings of this research are that the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia has gone through a profound change during the years 2013-2015. The companies and governments should re-evaluate what kind of environment they are now facing and what kinds of risks the new situation poses. This also calls for a deep academic analysis from the academic community. In corporate crisis management of Valio the main findings are that the former literature has looked into crisis management as one-time occurrence but the new crises and global events would call for a more on-going crisis analysis and active crisis management. Thus, corporate crisis management should be viewed as a cycle. Valio specifically handled the situation surprisingly well, considering that their revenue was indeed cut by a fifth. The main aspects of crisis management, which Valio did not handle as well, concern the learning curve of crisis management. They could be doing more in order to prepare for future crises better by learning from this experience. The situation is then still on-going in the autumn 2015 both in Ukraine and within Valio.

Civilian-military cooperation in crisis management operations

Finnish Defence Studies is published under the auspices of the National Defence College, and the contributions reflect the fields of research and teaching of the College. Finnish Defence Studies will occasionally feature documentation on Finnish Security Policy. Views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily imply endorsement by the National Defence College.

2014 Ukraine crisis – Implications for corporate crisis management

In the late year 2013 events started to unfold in Ukraine’s capital city Kiev that would change the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia. The tension had been building for years between the two parties with Ukraine in the middle and during 2014 the tension blew up and events started to escalate into a crisis, which we now know as the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The crisis would include political, economic, and even military actions by all the parties involved with Ukraine slipping close to civil war. Both political and economic hardships followed for others as well with both the EU and Russia placing heavy political and economic sanctions on each other. Most notably in terms of this paper, the Russian federation placed total import embargo sanctions on food imports from the EU and some other countries. This meant that a Finnish dairy company, Valio, had to engage in corporate crisis management as almost a fifth of its total revenue was cut in a heartbeat. Valio had been prepared for some kind of complications with their Russian market as events started to unfold in Ukraine in the beginning of 2014 but never did they suspect that a complete shutdown of the Russian market would follow. The company is still recovering after more than a year after the sanctions were posed and have not been able to supplement the lost revenue streams. This research is a qualitative research aiming to find answers to the main questions: 1) What is the 2014 Ukraine crisis and what kind of special implications does it have and 2) How did the crisis affect Valio and how did Valio fare in its crisis management efforts. The data has been collected both from secondary document sources and primary sources. The main findings of this research are that the political and economic environment of the EU and Russia has gone through a profound change during the years 2013-2015. The companies and governments should re-evaluate what kind of environment they are now facing and what kinds of risks the new situation poses. This also calls for a deep academic analysis from the academic community. In corporate crisis management of Valio the main findings are that the former literature has looked into crisis management as one-time occurrence but the new crises and global events would call for a more on-going crisis analysis and active crisis management. Thus, corporate crisis management should be viewed as a cycle. Valio specifically handled the situation surprisingly well, considering that their revenue was indeed cut by a fifth. The main aspects of crisis management, which Valio did not handle as well, concern the learning curve of crisis management. They could be doing more in order to prepare for future crises better by learning from this experience. The situation is then still on-going in the autumn 2015 both in Ukraine and within Valio.

Reactive crisis management in construction projects

Patterns of communication and behaviour emerge within a construction project in response to a construction crisis. This paper investigates, within a grounded theory framework, the nature of these patterns, the sociological and psychological forces which shape them and their relationship with crisis management efficiency. A grounded theory is presented in four parts. The first part conceives a construction crisis as a period of social instability, arising from conflicting interest groups, seeking to exercise power in the pursuit of social structures which suit their political and economic interests. The second part sees a construction crisis as a de-sensitizing phenomenon which results in a period of behavioural instability and conflict which is self-perpetuating. The third part cites social structure as an important influence upon construction crisis management efficiency, in determining the efficiency of information flow, and the level of uncertainty between those affected. The fourth part points to the in-built defence mechanisms which construction crises have and to three managerial ironies which make construction crisis management difficult.