Regional-scale, fully coupled modelling of stream-aquifer interaction in a tropical catchment

The planning and management of water resources in the Pioneer Valley, north-eastern Australia requires a tool for assessing the impact of groundwater and stream abstractions on water supply reliabilities and environmental flows in Sandy Creek (the main surface water system studied). Consequently, a fully coupled stream-aquifer model has been constructed using the code MODHMS, calibrated to near-stream observations of watertable behaviour and multiple components of gauged stream flow. This model has been tested using other methods of estimation, including stream depletion analysis and radon isotope tracer sampling. The coarseness of spatial discretisation, which is required for practical reasons of computational efficiency, limits the model's capacity to simulate small-scale processes (e.g., near-stream groundwater pumping, bank storage effects), and alternative approaches are required to complement the model's range of applicability. Model predictions of groundwater influx to Sandy Creek are compared with baseflow estimates from three different hydrograph separation techniques, which were found to be unable to reflect the dynamics of Sandy Creek stream-aquifer interactions. The model was also used to infer changes in the water balance of the system caused by historical land use change. This led to constraints on the recharge distribution which can be implemented to improve model calibration performance. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

BeachWin: modelling groundwater effects on swash sediment transport and beach profile changes

Field and laboratory observations have shown that a relatively low beach groundwater table enhances beach accretion. These observations have led to the beach dewatering technique (artificially lowering the beach water table) for combating beach erosion. Here we present a process-based numerical model that simulates the interacting wave motion on the beach. coastal groundwater flow, swash sediment transport and beach profile changes. Results of model simulations demonstrate that the model replicates accretionary effects of a low beach water table on beach profile changes and has the potential to become a tool for assessing the effectiveness of beach dewatering systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate model benchmarking with glacial and mid-Holocene climates

Past climates provide a test of models’ ability to predict climate change. We present a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art models against Last Glacial Maximum and mid-Holocene climates, using reconstructions of land and ocean climates and simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling and Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Projects. Newer models do not perform better than earlier versions despite higher resolution and complexity. Differences in climate sensitivity only weakly account for differences in model performance. In the glacial, models consistently underestimate land cooling (especially in winter) and overestimate ocean surface cooling (especially in the tropics). In the mid-Holocene, models generally underestimate the precipitation increase in the northern monsoon regions, and overestimate summer warming in central Eurasia. Models generally capture large-scale gradients of climate change but have more limited ability to reproduce spatial patterns. Despite these common biases, some models perform better than others.

Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments

We describe the creation of a data set describing changes related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and elevation of ice-free land at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which were used in LGM experiments conducted as part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The CMIP5/PMIP3 data sets were created from reconstructions made by three different groups, which were all obtained using a model-inversion approach but differ in the assumptions used in the modelling and in the type of data used as constraints. The ice-sheet extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) does not vary substantially between the three individual data sources. The difference in the topography of the NH ice sheets is also moderate, and smaller than the differences between these reconstructions (and the resultant composite reconstruction) and ice-sheet reconstructions used in previous generations of PMIP. Only two of the individual reconstructions provide information for Antarctica. The discrepancy between these two reconstructions is larger than the difference for the NH ice sheets, although still less than the difference between the composite reconstruction and previous PMIP ice-sheet reconstructions. Although largely confined to the ice-covered regions, differences between the climate response to the individual LGM reconstructions extend over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northern Hemisphere continents, partly through atmospheric stationary waves. Differences between the climate response to the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and any individual ice-sheet reconstruction are smaller than those between the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and the ice sheet used in the last phase of PMIP (PMIP2).

TEX86H proxy and BIT index of sediment core GeoB9528-3

Changes in the strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are known to have profound impacts on global climate. Coupled modelling studies have suggested that, on annual to multi-decadal time scales, a slowdown of AMOC causes a deepening of the thermocline in the tropical Atlantic. However, this process has been poorly constrained by sedimentary geochemical records. Here, we reconstruct surface (UK'37 Index) and thermocline (TEXH86) water temperatures from the Guinea Plateau Margin (Eastern tropical Atlantic) over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles (~ 192 kyr). These paleotemperature records show that periods of reduced AMOC, as indicated by the d13 C benthic foraminiferal record from the same core, coincide with a reduction in the near-surface vertical temperature gradient, demonstrating for the first time that AMOC-induced tropical Atlantic thermocline adjustment exists on longer, millennial time scales. Modelling results support the interpretation of the geochemical records and show that thermocline adjustment is particularly pronounced in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Thus, variations in AMOC strength appear to be an important driver of the thermocline structure in the tropical Atlantic from annual to multi-millennial time scales.

TEX86H proxy and BIT index of sediment core GeoB9528-3 and reconstructed temperature data from NW Africa surface sediments

Changes in the strength of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are known to have profound impacts on global climate. Coupled modelling studies have suggested that, on annual to multi-decadal time scales, a slowdown of AMOC causes a deepening of the thermocline in the tropical Atlantic. However, this process has been poorly constrained by sedimentary geochemical records. Here, we reconstruct surface (UK'37 Index) and thermocline (TEX86H) water temperatures from the Guinea Plateau Margin (Eastern tropical Atlantic) over the last two glacial-interglacial cycles (~ 192 kyr). These paleotemperature records show that periods of reduced AMOC, as indicated by the d13 C benthic foraminiferal record from the same core, coincide with a reduction in the near-surface vertical temperature gradient, demonstrating for the first time that AMOC-induced tropical Atlantic thermocline adjustment exists on longer, millennial time scales. Modelling results support the interpretation of the geochemical records and show that thermocline adjustment is particularly pronounced in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Thus, variations in AMOC strength appear to be an important driver of the thermocline structure in the tropical Atlantic from annual to multi-millennial time scales.

Hybrid modelling of coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems

A hybrid formulation for coupled pore fluid-solid deformation problems is proposed. The scheme is a hybrid in the sense that we use a vertex centered finite volume formulation for the analysis of the pore fluid and a particle method for the solid in our model. The pore fluid formally occupies the same space as the solid particles. The size of the particles is not necessarily equal to the physical size of materials. A finite volume mesh for the pore fluid flow is generated by Delaunay triangulation. Each triangle possesses an initial porosity. Changes of the porosity are specified by the translations of the mass centers of particles. Net pore pressure gradients are applied to the particle centers and are considered in the particle momentum balance. The potential of our model is illustrated by means of a simulation of coupled fracture and fluid flow developed in porous rock under biaxial compression condition.

Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Recent lake-level and outflow variations at Lake Viljandi, Estonia: validation of a coupled lake-catchment modelling scheme for climate change studies

Changes in the depth of Lake Viljandi between 1940 and 1990 were simulated using a lake water and energy-balance model driven by standard monthly weather data. Catchment runoff was simulated using a one-dimensional hydrological model, with a two-layer soil, a single-layer snowpack, a simple representation of vegetation cover and similarly modest input requirements. Outflow was modelled as a function of lake level. The simulated record of lake level and outflow matched observations of lake-level variations (r = 0.78) and streamflow (r = 0.87) well. The ability of the model to capture both intra- and inter-annual variations in the behaviour of a specific lake, despite the relatively simple input requirements, makes it extremely suitable for investigations of the impacts of climate change on lake water balance.

Modelling coupled physical-biogeochemical processes in ice-covered oceans

The last decades have seen a large effort of the scientific community to study and understand the physics of sea ice. We currently have a wide - even though still not exhaustive - knowledge of the sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics and of their temporal and spatial variability. Sea ice biogeochemistry is instead largely unknown. Sea ice algae production may account for up to 25% of overall primary production in ice-covered waters of the Southern Ocean. However, the influence of physical factors, such as the location of ice formation, the role of snow cover and light availability on sea ice primary production is poorly understood. There are only sparse localized observations and little knowledge of the functioning of sea ice biogeochemistry at larger scales. Modelling becomes then an auxiliary tool to help qualifying and quantifying the role of sea ice biogeochemistry in the ocean dynamics. In this thesis, a novel approach is used for the modelling and coupling of sea ice biogeochemistry - and in particular its primary production - to sea ice physics. Previous attempts were based on the coupling of rather complex sea ice physical models to empirical or relatively simple biological or biogeochemical models. The focus is moved here to a more biologically-oriented point of view. A simple, however comprehensive, physical model of the sea ice thermodynamics (ESIM) was developed and coupled to a novel sea ice implementation (BFM-SI) of the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM). The BFM is a comprehensive model, largely used and validated in the open ocean environment and in regional seas. The physical model has been developed having in mind the biogeochemical properties of sea ice and the physical inputs required to model sea ice biogeochemistry. The central concept of the coupling is the modelling of the Biologically-Active-Layer (BAL), which is the time-varying fraction of sea ice that is continuously connected to the ocean via brines pockets and channels and it acts as rich habitat for many microorganisms. The physical model provides the key physical properties of the BAL (e.g., brines volume, temperature and salinity), and the BFM-SI simulates the physiological and ecological response of the biological community to the physical enviroment. The new biogeochemical model is also coupled to the pelagic BFM through the exchange of organic and inorganic matter at the boundaries between the two systems . This is done by computing the entrapment of matter and gases when sea ice grows and release to the ocean when sea ice melts to ensure mass conservation. The model was tested in different ice-covered regions of the world ocean to test the generality of the parameterizations. The focus was particularly on the regions of landfast ice, where primary production is generally large. The implementation of the BFM in sea ice and the coupling structure in General Circulation Models will add a new component to the latters (and in general to Earth System Models), which will be able to provide adequate estimate of the role and importance of sea ice biogeochemistry in the global carbon cycle.

An anisotropic viscous representation of Mohr-Coulomb failure for use is modelling coupled mantle-continent dynamics

In mantle convection models it has become common to make use of a modified (pressure sensitive, Boussinesq) von Mises yield criterion to limit the maximum stress the lithosphere can support. This approach allows the viscous, cool thermal boundary layer to deform in a relatively plate-like mode even in a fully Eulerian representation. In large-scale models with embedded continental crust where the mobile boundary layer represents the oceanic lithosphere, the von Mises yield criterion for the oceans ensures that the continents experience a realistic broad-scale stress regime. In detailed models of crustal deformation it is, however, more appropriate to choose a Mohr-Coulomb yield criterion based upon the idea that frictional slip occurs on whichever one of many randomly oriented planes happens to be favorably oriented with respect to the stress field. As coupled crust/mantle models become more sophisticated it is important to be able to use whichever failure model is appropriate to a given part of the system. We have therefore developed a way to represent Mohr-Coulomb failure within a code which is suited to mantle convection problems coupled to large-scale crustal deformation. Our approach uses an orthotropic viscous rheology (a different viscosity for pure shear to that for simple shear) to define a prefered plane for slip to occur given the local stress field. The simple-shear viscosity and the deformation can then be iterated to ensure that the yield criterion is always satisfied. We again assume the Boussinesq approximation - neglecting any effect of dilatancy on the stress field. An additional criterion is required to ensure that deformation occurs along the plane aligned with maximum shear strain-rate rather than the perpendicular plane which is formally equivalent in any symmetric formulation. It is also important to allow strain-weakening of the material. The material should remember both the accumulated failure history and the direction of failure. We have included this capacity in a Lagrangian-Integration-point finite element code and will show a number of examples of extension and compression of a crustal block with a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, and comparisons between mantle convection models using the von Mises versus the Mohr-Coulomb yield criteria. The formulation itself is general and applies to 2D and 3D problems, although it is somewhat more complicated to identify the slip plane in 3D.

Multiphase modelling of the characteristics of close coupled gas atomization

Not withstanding the high demand of metal powder for automotive and High Tech applications, there are still many unclear aspects of the production process. Only recentlyhas supercomputer performance made possible numerical investigation of such phenomena. This thesis focuses on the modelling aspects of primary and secondary atomization. Initially two-dimensional analysis is carried out to investigate the influence of flow parameters (reservoir pressure and gas temperature principally) and nozzle geometry on final powder yielding. Among the different types, close coupled atomizers have the best performance in terms of cost and narrow size distribution. An isentropic contoured nozzle is introduced to minimize the gas flow losses through shock cells: the results demonstrate that it outperformed the standard converging-diverging slit nozzle. Furthermore the utilization of hot gas gave a promising outcome: the powder size distribution is narrowed and the gas consumption reduced. In the second part of the thesis, the interaction of liquid metal and high speed gas near the feeding tube exit was studied. Both axisymmetric andnon-axisymmetric geometries were simulated using a 3D approach. The filming mechanism was detected only for very small metal flow rates (typically obtained in laboratory scale atomizers). When the melt flow increased, the liquid core overtook the adverse gas flow and entered in the high speed wake directly: in this case the disruption isdriven by sinusoidal surface waves. The process is characterized by fluctuating values of liquid volumes entering the domain that are monitored only as a time average rate: it is far from industrial robustness and capability concept. The non-axisymmetric geometry promoted the splitting of the initial stream into four cores, smaller in diameter and easier to atomize. Finally a new atomization design based on the lesson learned from previous cases simulation is presented.

Similarity between class A and class B G-protein-coupled receptors exemplified through calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor modelling and mutagenesis studies

Modelling class B G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) using class A GPCR structural templates is difficult due to lack of homology. The plant GPCR, GCR1, has homology to both class A and class B GPCRs. We have used this to generate a class A-class B alignment, and by incorporating maximum lagged correlation of entropy and hydrophobicity into a consensus score, we have been able to align receptor transmembrane regions. We have applied this analysis to generate active and inactive homology models of the class B calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor, and have supported it with site-directed mutagenesis data using 122 CGRP receptor residues and 144 published mutagenesis results on other class B GPCRs. The variation of sequence variability with structure, the analysis of polarity violations, the alignment of group-conserved residues and the mutagenesis results at 27 key positions were particularly informative in distinguishing between the proposed and plausible alternative alignments. Furthermore, we have been able to associate the key molecular features of the class B GPCR signalling machinery with their class A counterparts for the first time. These include the [K/R]KLH motif in intracellular loop 1, [I/L]xxxL and KxxK at the intracellular end of TM5 and TM6, the NPXXY/VAVLY motif on TM7 and small group-conserved residues in TM1, TM2, TM3 and TM7. The equivalent of the class A DRY motif is proposed to involve Arg(2.39), His(2.43) and Glu(3.46), which makes a polar lock with T(6.37). These alignments and models provide useful tools for understanding class B GPCR function.

Experimentally and coupled CFD/CSD assisted structural and aeroelastic modelling of the Javelin UAV outboard wing section

This study presents the procedure followed to make a prediction of the critical flutter speed for a composite UAV wing. At the beginning of the study, there was no information available on the materials used for the construction of the wing, and the wing internal structure was unknown. Ground vibration tests were performed in order to detect the structure’s natural frequencies and mode shapes. From tests, it was found that the wing possesses a high stiffness, presenting well separated first bending and torsional natural frequencies. Two finite element models were developed and matched to experimental results. It has been necessary to introduce some assumptions, due to the uncertainties regarding the structure. The matching process was based on natural frequencies’ sensitivity with respect to a change in the mechanical properties of the materials. Once experimental results were met, average material properties were also found. Aerodynamic coefficients for the wing were obtained by means of a CFD software. The same analysis was also conducted when the wing is deformed in its first four mode shapes. A first approximation for flutter critical speed was made with the classical V - g technique. Finally, wing’s aeroelastic behavior was simulated using a coupled CFD/CSD method, obtaining a more accurate flutter prediction. The CSD solver is based on the time integration of modal dynamic equations, requiring the extraction of mode shapes from the previously performed finite-element analysis. Results show that flutter onset is not a risk for the UAV, occurring at velocities well beyond its operative range.

Finite element modelling of temperature gradient driven rock alteration and mineralization in porous rock masses

We present finite element simulations of temperature gradient driven rock alteration and mineralization in fluid saturated porous rock masses. In particular, we explore the significance of production/annihilation terms in the mass balance equations and the dependence of the spatial patterns of rock alteration upon the ratio of the roll over time of large scale convection cells to the relaxation time of the chemical reactions. Special concepts such as the gradient reaction criterion or rock alteration index (RAI) are discussed in light of the present, more general theory. In order to validate the finite element simulation, we derive an analytical solution for the rock alteration index of a benchmark problem on a two-dimensional rectangular domain. Since the geometry and boundary conditions of the benchmark problem can be easily and exactly modelled, the analytical solution is also useful for validating other numerical methods, such as the finite difference method and the boundary element method, when they are used to dear with this kind of problem. Finally, the potential of the theory is illustrated by means of finite element studies related to coupled flow problems in materially homogeneous and inhomogeneous porous rock masses. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.