Scenarios involving future climate and water extraction: ecosystem states in the estuary of Australia's largest river

 

A Ramsar wetland in crisis the Coorong, Lower Lakes and Murray Mouth, Australia

The state of global freshwater ecosystems is increasingly parlous with water resource development degrading high-conservation wetlands. Rehabilitation is challenging because necessary increases in environmental flows have concomitant social impacts, complicated because many rivers flow between jurisdictions or countries. Australia's MurrayDarling Basin is a large river basin with such problems encapsulated in the crisis of its Ramsar-listed terminal wetland, the Coorong, Lower Lakes and Murray Mouth. Prolonged drought and upstream diversion of water dropped water levels in the Lakes below sea level (20092010), exposing hazardous acid sulfate soils. Salinities increased dramatically (e.g. South Lagoon of Coorong>200gL-1, cf. modelled natural 80gL-1), reducing populations of waterbirds, fish, macroinvertebrates and littoral plants. Calcareous masses of estuarine tubeworms (Ficopomatus enigmaticus) killed freshwater turtles (Chelidae) and other fauna. Management primarily focussed on treating symptoms (e.g. acidification), rather than reduced flows, at considerable expense (≥AU$2 billion). We modelled a scenario that increased annual flows during low-flow periods from current levels up to one-third of what the natural flow would have been, potentially delivering substantial environmental benefits and avoiding future crises. Realisation of this outcome depends on increasing environmental flows and implementing sophisticated river management during dry periods, both highly contentious options.

The Coorong and Lower Lakes : Talking fish - making connections with the rivers of the Murray-Darling Basin

After gathering water from 23 river valleys, the Murray empties into Lakes Alexandrina and Albert before making its way to the Coorong and out the Murray Mouth to Encounter Bay in South Australia. The entire Murray‐Darling Basin is upstream. Everything that happens there affects what goes on here...

Predicting changes to seascapes under future climate, with the Coorong as a case study

The marine and estuarine ecosystems of South Australia are likely to alter significantly in response to a changing climate, but also in response to managerial decisions we make. The allocation of fishing effort is an example of one such decision. We summarise some projections on a state-wide basis for how different components of these ecosystems may be expected to change. We anticipate that tropical elements will expand in range but cold-temperate communities will contract or disappear from South Australia. As a specific example, we have modelled the ecosystem states of the Coorong and the Murray Mouth. We combined biological and physico-chemical components of an ecosystem into co-occurring units (termed ecosystem states) with well-defined thresholds between them. Predictions were then made using time series of inputs from modelled water flows and other predictors. Using this model, we will discuss the likely implication of a range of climate change and management scenarios, highlighting the potential impact on the commercial fishing opportunities. Specifically we will discuss the potential sensitivity of the fishery to climate changes versus various management options. Understanding these possible future changes should allow the industry to adapt before climate change reduces the sustainability of the industry.

Linking water-resource models to ecosystem-response models to guide water-resource planning -- an example from the Murray--Darling Basin, Australia

Objectively assessing ecological benefits of competing watering strategies is difficult. We present a framework of coupled models to compare scenarios, using the Coorong, the estuary for the MurrayDarling River system in South Australia, as a case study. The framework links outputs from recent modelling of the effects of climate change on water availability across the MurrayDarling Basin to a hydrodynamic model for the Coorong, and then an ecosystem-response model. The approach has significant advantages, including the following: (1) evaluating management actions is straightforward because of relatively tight coupling between impacts on hydrology and ecology; (2) scenarios of 111 years reveal the impacts of realistic climatic and flow variability on Coorong ecology; and (3) ecological impact is represented in the model by a series of ecosystem states, integrating across many organisms, not just iconic species. We applied the approach to four flow scenarios, comparing conditions without development, current water-use levels, and two predicted future climate scenarios. Simulation produced a range of hydrodynamic conditions and consequent distributions of ecosystem states, allowing managers to compare scenarios. This approach could be used with many climates and/or management actions for optimisation of flow delivery to environmental assets.

The Bassian Isthmus and the major ocean currents of southeast Australia influence the phylogeography and population structure of a southern Australian intertidal barnacle Catomerus polymerus (Darwin)

Southern Australia is currently divided into three marine biogeographical provinces based on faunal distributions and physical parameters. These regions indicate eastern and western distributions, with an overlap occurring in the Bass Strait in Victoria. However, studies indicate that the boundaries of these provinces vary depending on the species being examined, and in particular on the mode of development employed by that species, be they direct developers or planktonic larvae dispersers. Mitochondrial DNA sequence analysis of the surf barnacle Catomerus polymerus in southern Australia revealed an east–west phylogeographical split involving two highly divergent clades (cytochrome oxidase I 3.5 ± 0.76%, control region 6.7 ± 0.65%), with almost no geographical overlap. Spatial genetic structure was not detected within either clade, indicative of a relatively long-lived planktonic larval phase. Five microsatellite loci indicated that C. polymerus populations exhibit relatively high levels of genetic divergence, and fall into four subregions: eastern Australia, central Victoria, western Victoria and Tasmania, and South Australia. F_ST values between eastern Australia (from the eastern mitochondrial DNA clade) and the remaining three subregions ranged from 0.038 to 0.159, with other analyses indicating isolation by distance between the subregions of western mitochondrial origin. We suggest that the east–west division is indicative of allopatric divergence resulting from the emergence of the Bassian land-bridge during glacial maxima, preventing gene flow between these two lineages. Subsequently, contemporary ecological conditions, namely the East Australian, Leeuwin, and Zeehan currents and the geographical disjunctions at the Coorong and Ninety Mile Beach are most likely responsible for the four subregions indicated by the microsatellite data.

Understanding the sources of uncertainty to reduce the risks of undesirable outcomes in large-scale freshwater ecosystem restoration projects: an example from the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia

There are a growing number of large-scale freshwater ecological restoration projects worldwide. Assessments of the benefits and costs of restoration often exclude an analysis of uncertainty in the modelled outcomes. To address this shortcoming we explicitly model the uncertainties associated with measures of ecosystem health in the estuary of the Murray– Darling Basin, Australia and how those measures may change with the implementation of a Basin-wide Plan to recover water to improve ecosystem health. Specifically, we compare two metrics – one simple and one more complex – to manage end-of-system flow requirements for one ecosystem asset in the Basin, the internationally important Coorong saline wetlands. Our risk assessment confirms that the ecological conditions in the Coorong are likely to improve with implementation of the Basin Plan; however, there are risks of a Type III error (where the correct answer is found for the wrong question) associated with using the simple metric for adaptive management.