Non-durable consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil: panel-data analysis at the state level

Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.

Ensaios em econometria aplicada

Este tese é composta por quatro ensaios sobre aplicações econométricas em tópicos econômicos relevantes. Os estudos versam sobre consumo de bens não-duráveis e preços de imóveis, capital humano e crescimento econômico, demanda residencial de energia elétrica e, por fim, periodicidade de variáveis fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. No primeiro artigo, "Non-Durable Consumption and Real-Estate Prices in Brazil: Panel-Data Analysis at the State Level", é investigada a relação entre variação do preço de imóveis e variação no consumo de bens não-duráveis. Os dados coletados permitem a formação de um painel com sete estados brasileiros observados entre 2008- 2012. Os resultados são obtidos a partir da estimação de uma forma reduzida obtida em Campbell e Cocco (2007) que aproxima um modelo estrutural. As estimativas para o caso brasileiro são inferiores as de Campbell e Cocco (2007), que, por sua vez, utilizaram microdados britânicos. O segundo artigo, "Uma medida alternativa de capital humano para o estudo empírico do crescimento", propõe uma forma de mensuração do estoque de capital humano que reflita diretamente preços de mercado, através do valor presente do fluxo de renda real futura. Os impactos dessa medida alternativa são avaliados a partir da estimação da função de produção tradicional dos modelos de crescimento neoclássico. Os dados compõem um painel de 25 países observados entre 1970 e 2010. Um exercício de robustez é realizado para avaliar a estabilidade dos coeficientes estimados diante de variações em variáveis exógenas do modelo. Por sua vez, o terceiro artigo "Household Electricity Demand in Brazil: a microdata approach", parte de dados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF) para mensurar a elasticidade preço da demanda residencial brasileira por energia elétrica. O uso de microdados permite adotar abordagens que levem em consideração a seleção amostral. Seu efeito sobre a demanda de eletricidade é relevante, uma vez que esta demanda é derivada da demanda por estoque de bens duráveis. Nesse contexto, a escolha prévia do estoque de bens duráveis (e consequentemente, a escolha pela intensidade de energia desse estoque) condiciona a demanda por eletricidade dos domicílios. Finalmente, o quarto trabalho, "Interpolação de Variáveis Fiscais Brasileiras usando Representação de Espaço de Estados" procurou sanar o problema de baixa periodicidade da divulgação de séries fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. Através de técnica de interpolação baseada no Filtro de Kalman, as séries mensais não observadas são projetadas a partir de séries bimestrais parcialmente observadas e covariáveis mensais selecionadas.

The Real Plan: Stabilization and destabilization

The paper analyzes Brazil's Real Plan, an exchange-rate based stabilization program, implemented in 1994, which mixed a spectacular price stabilization with some serious macroeconomic destabilization. The paper focuses on two of these imbalances: the consumption boom and the financial destabilization; showing that the former represented nothing the reverse side of a collapsed investment boom, which, in turn, led to the financial (banking) crisis. We hold that these instabilities were produced by a policy arrangement in which monetary and fiscal policies alone had to compensate for a largely appreciated, almost fixed, exchange rate anchor. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transformations of taste: Americanisation, generational change and Australian cultural consumption

Researchers within the field of cultural imperialism as well as the more recently developed globalisation paradigm have tended to dwell upon the economic or corporate dimensions of global cultural flows and have been largely indifferent to the domain of the everyday cultural tastes and forms of cultural consumption that exist in particular national contexts. This article seeks to redress this focus through an examination of one particular instance of cultural imperialism, the widely held belief in ?he Americanisation of Australian society. Using data from a major research project inquiring into Australian everyday culture the article focuses on the changes in cultural tastes and preferences that are evident in three generational cohorts: contemporary young adults, a segment of the 'baby-boom' generation now in middle age, and a group of older Australians born in the years following World War I and the 1920s. The article documents a trend in which overseas influences, particularly those originating from America, appear to be increasingly shaping Australians' tastes in a wide range of cultural domains. Nevertheless, despite these changes in cultural taste Australians of ail ages retain a strong sense of a distinctive national identity. Such findings have implications for an understanding of cultural globalisation as a process of hybridisation and intermixing.

Organized Retail Market Boom and the Indian Society

IT and related services played a major role for India’s current 9.2. GDP growth. Organized retailing in India is one more example for its open economy. The IT industries where able develop a demand for Indian talents all over the world and improved their living standards. It directly impacts only a small minority of Indian population while organized retail affects every single Indian and every sector of Indian society. The paper gives a glimpse of the slow evolution of retail market over the years in India and its contribution for economic growth. The likely positive impact of this revolution in different sectors is enumerated. Paper addresses its ability to manipulate consumption pattern of society, increased customer satisfaction and likely change in the market shares of the different types of sellers. Paper discusses its flip sides like increasing social tension among families below poverty line and greater loss of self employment opportunities by this revolution. The main theme of enquiry of this paper is what it all means for the Indian society.

A DSGE model with loss aversion in consumption and leisure: an explanation for business cycles asymmetries

In this chapter, an asymmetric DSGE model is built in order to account for asymmetries in business cycles. One of the most important contributions of this work is the construction of a general utility function which nests loss aversion, risk aversion and habits formation by means of a smooth transition function. The main idea behind this asymmetric utility function is that under recession the agents over-smooth consumption and leisure choices in order to prevent a huge deviation of them from the reference level of the utility; while under boom, the agents simply smooth consumption and leisure, but trying to be as far as possible from the reference level of utility. The simulations of this model by means of Perturbations Method show that it is possible to reproduce asymmetrical business cycles where recession (on shock) are stronger than booms and booms are more long-lasting than recession. One additional and unexpected result is a downward stickiness displayed by real wages. As a consequence of this, there is a more persistent fall in employment in recession than in boom. Thus, the model reproduces not only asymmetrical business cycles but also real stickiness and hysteresis.

Uma estética do paradoxo: aspectos do melodrama no romance latino-americano do pós-boom

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mining and Energy Boom, Dutch Disease and Informality in Colombia: a DSGE Approach

The paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, which assesses the macroeconomic and labor market effects derived from simulating a positive shock to the stochastic component of the mining-energy sector productivity. Calibrating the model for the Colombian economy, this shock generates a whole increase in formal wages and a raise in tax revenues, expanding total consumption of the household members. These facts increase non-tradable goods prices relative to tradable goods prices, then real exchange rate decreases (appreciation) and occurs a displacement of productive resources from the tradable (manufacturing) sector to the non-tradable sector, followed by an increase in formal GDP and formal job gains. This situation makes the formal sector to absorb workers from the informal sector through the non-tradable formal subsector, which causes informal GDP to go down. As a consequence, in the net consumption falls for informal workers, which leads some members of the household not to offer their labor force in the informal sector but instead they prefer to keep unemployed. Therefore, the final result on the labor market is a decrease in the number of informal workers, of which a part are in the formal sector and the rest are unemployed.

Testosterone Therapy Differently Regulates The Anti- And Pro-inflammatory Cytokines In The Plasma And Prostate Of Rats Submitted To Chronic Ethanol Consumption (uchb).

Ethanol consumption damages the prostate, and testosterone is known by anti-inflammatory role. The cytokines were investigated in the plasma and ventral prostate of UChB rats submitted or not to testosterone therapy by ELISA and Western blot, respectively. Additionally, inflammatory foci and mast cells were identified in the ventral prostate slides stained by hematoxylin and eosin and toluidine blue, respectively. Inflammatory foci were found in the ethanol-treated animals and absent after testosterone therapy. Plasma levels of IL-6 and IL-10 were not changed while TNFα and TFG-β1 were increased in the animals submitted testosterone therapy. Regarding to ventral prostate, IL-6 did not alter, while IL-10, TNFα, and TFG-β1 were increased after testosterone therapy. Ethanol increases NFR2 in addition to high number of intact and degranulated mast cell which were reduced after testosterone therapy. So, ethanol and testosterone differentially modulates the cytokines in the plasma and prostate.

Nat2, Xrcc1 And Hogg1 Polymorphisms, Cigarette Smoking, Alcohol Consumption And Risk Of Upper Aerodigestive Tract Cancer.

To evaluate associations between polymorphisms of the N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2), human 8-oxoguanine glycosylase 1 (hOGG1) and X-ray repair cross-complementing protein 1 (XRCC1) genes and risk of upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) cancer. A case-control study involving 117 cases and 224 controls was undertaken. The NAT2 gene polymorphisms were genotyped by automated sequencing and XRCC1 Arg399Gln and hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphisms were determined by Polymerase Chain Reaction followed by Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) methods. Slow metabolization phenotype was significantly associated as a risk factor for the development of UADT cancer (p=0.038). Furthermore, haplotype of slow metabolization was also associated with UADT cancer (p=0.014). The hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphism (CG or GG vs. CC genotypes) was shown as a protective factor against UADT cancer in moderate smokers (p=0.031). The XRCC1 Arg399Gln polymorphism (GA or AA vs. GG genotypes), in turn, was a protective factor against UADT cancer only among never-drinkers (p=0.048). Interactions involving NAT2, XRCC1 Arg399Gln and hOGG1 Ser326Cys polymorphisms may modulate the risk of UADT cancer in this population.

Androgen Therapy Reverses Injuries Caused By Ethanol Consumption In The Prostate: Testosterone As A Possible Target To Ethanol-related Disorders.

Chronic ethanol consumption leads to reproductive damages, since it can act directly in the tissues or indirectly, causing a hormonal imbalance. Prostate is a hormone-dependent gland and, consequently, susceptible to ethanol. The potential of testosterone therapy in the ethanol-related disorders was investigated in the prostate microenvironment. UChB rats aged 90 days were divided into 2 experimental groups (n=20): C: drinking water only and EtOH: drinking 10% (v/v) ethanol at >2 g/kg body weight/day+water. At 150 days old, 10 rats from each group received subcutaneous injections of testosterone cypionate (5 mg/kg body weight) diluted in corn oil every other day for 4 weeks, constituting T and EtOH+T, while the remaining animals received corn oil as vehicle. Animals were euthanized at 180 days old, by decapitation. Blood was collected to obtain hormone concentrations and ventral prostate was dissected and processed for light microscope and molecular analyses. Ventral prostate weight, plasma testosterone and DHT and intraprostatic testosterone concentrations were increased after testosterone treatment. Plasma estradiol level was reduced in the EtOH+T. Inflammatory foci, metaplasia and epithelial atrophy were constantly found in the prostate of EtOH and were not observed after hormonal therapy. No differences were found in the expression of AR, ERβ and DACH-1. Additionally, testosterone treatment down-regulated ERα and increased the e-cadherin and α-actinin immunoreactivities. Testosterone was able to reverse damages caused by ethanol consumption in the prostate microenvironment and becomes a possible target to be investigated to ethanol-related disorders.

Cola beverage consumption delays alveolar bone healing: a histometric study in rats

Epidemiological studies have suggested that cola beverage consumption may affect bone metabolism and increase bone fracture risk. Experimental evidence linking cola beverage consumption to deleterious effects on bone is lacking. Herein, we investigated whether cola beverage consumption from weaning to early puberty delays the rate of reparative bone formation inside the socket of an extracted tooth in rats. Twenty male Wistar rats received cola beverage (cola group) or tap water (control group) ad libitum from the age of 23 days until tooth extraction at 42 days and euthanasia 2 and 3 weeks later. The neoformed bone volume inside the alveolar socket was estimated in semi-serial longitudinal sections using a quantitative differential point-counting method. Histological examination suggested a decrease in the osteogenic process within the tooth sockets of rats from both cola groups, which had thinner and sparser new bone trabeculae. Histometric data confirmed that alveolar bone healing was significantly delayed in cola-fed rats at three weeks after tooth extraction (ANOVA, p = 0.0006, followed by Tukey's test, p < 0.01). Although the results of studies in rats cannot be extrapolated directly to human clinical dentistry, the present study provides evidence that cola beverage consumption negatively affect maxillary bone formation.

Drug consumption among medical students in São Paulo, Brazil: influences of gender and academic year

OBJECTIVE: To analyze alcohol, tobacco and other drug use among medical students. METHOD: Over a five-year period (1996-2001), we evaluated 457 students at the Universidade de São Paulo School of Medicine, located in São Paulo, Brazil. The students participated by filling out an anonymous questionnaire on drug use (lifetime, previous 12 months and previous 30 days). The influence that gender and academic year have on drug use was also analyzed. RESULTS: During the study period, there was an increase in the use of illicit drugs, especially inhalants and amphetamines, among the medical students evaluated. Drug use (except that of marijuana and inhalants) was comparable between the genders, and academic year was an important influencing factor. DISCUSSION: Increased inhalant use was observed among the medical students, especially among males and students in the early undergraduate years. This is suggestive of a specific behavioral pattern among medical students. Our findings corroborate those of previous studies. CONCLUSION: Inhalant use is on the rise among medical students at the Universidade de São Paulo School of Medicine. Because of the negative health effects of illicit drug use, further studies are needed in order to deepen the understanding of this phenomenon and to facilitate the development of preventive measures.

Validation of a food frequency questionnaire to assess the consumption of carotenoids, fruits and vegetables among adolescents: the method of triads

The aim of this study was to validate the intake of carotenoids, fruits and vegetables estimated by the Food Frequency Questionnaire for Adolescents (FFQA) using the method of triads. Blood samples were collected from 80 elementary school adolescents to assess serum levels of β-carotene. Partial correlation coefficients (r) were calculated between an estimated intake of carotenoids, fruits and vegetables and the serum levels of β-carotene. Validity coefficients were calculated using the method of triads. With the exception of carotenoids, partial r from the food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) were greater than those of the 24-hour recall (24hR). The fruit/vegetable group showed the highest partial r for the FFQ (r = 0.235) and the 24hR (r = 0.137). The highest validity coefficient was obtained for the vegetable group, as assessed by the FFQ (r = 0.873). On average, the validity coefficient values for the FFQ were greater than those obtained for the 24hR or the β-carotene serum levels. The FFQA is an accurate tool for estimating the intake of carotenoids, fruits and vegetables in this population group.

Discrepancies among ecological, household, and individual data on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil

Information on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil in the three levels of dietary data was analyzed and compared. Data about national supply came from Food Balance Sheets compiled by the FAO; household availability information was obtained from the Brazilian National Household Budget Survey (HBS); and actual intake information came from a large individual dietary intake survey that was representative of the adult population of São Paulo city. All sources of information were collected between 2002 and 2003. A subset of the HBS, representative of São Paulo city, was used in our analysis in order to improve the quality of the comparison with actual intake data. The ratio of national supply to household availability of fruits and vegetables was 2.6 while the ratio of national supply to actual intake was 4.0. The discrepancy ratio in the comparison between household availability and actual intake was smaller, 1.6. While the use of supply and availability data has advantages, as lower cost, must be taken into account that these sources tend to overestimate actual intake of fruits and vegetables.