Non-durable consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil: panel-data analysis at the state level

Housing is an important component of wealth for a typical household in many countries. The objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of real-estate price variation on welfare, trying to close a gap between the welfare literature in Brazil and that in the U.S., the U.K., and other developed countries. Our first motivation relates to the fact that real estate is probably more important here than elsewhere as a proportion of wealth, which potentially makes the impact of a price change bigger here. Our second motivation relates to the fact that real-estate prices boomed in Brazil in the last five years. Prime real estate in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo have tripled in value in that period, and a smaller but generalized increase has been observed throughout the country. Third, we have also seen a recent consumption boom in Brazil in the last five years. Indeed, the recent rise of some of the poor to middle-income status is well documented not only for Brazil but for other emerging countries as well. Regarding consumption and real-estate prices in Brazil, one cannot imply causality from correlation, but one can do causal inference with an appropriate structural model and proper inference, or with a proper inference in a reduced-form setup. Our last motivation is related to the complete absence of studies of this kind in Brazil, which makes ours a pioneering study. We assemble a panel-data set for the determinants of non-durable consumption growth by Brazilian states, merging the techniques and ideas in Campbell and Cocco (2007) and in Case, Quigley and Shiller (2005). With appropriate controls, and panel-data methods, we investigate whether house-price variation has a positive effect on non-durable consumption. The results show a non-negligible significant impact of the change in the price of real estate on welfare consumption), although smaller then what Campbell and Cocco have found. Our findings support the view that the channel through which house prices affect consumption is a financial one.

Ensaios em econometria aplicada

Este tese é composta por quatro ensaios sobre aplicações econométricas em tópicos econômicos relevantes. Os estudos versam sobre consumo de bens não-duráveis e preços de imóveis, capital humano e crescimento econômico, demanda residencial de energia elétrica e, por fim, periodicidade de variáveis fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. No primeiro artigo, "Non-Durable Consumption and Real-Estate Prices in Brazil: Panel-Data Analysis at the State Level", é investigada a relação entre variação do preço de imóveis e variação no consumo de bens não-duráveis. Os dados coletados permitem a formação de um painel com sete estados brasileiros observados entre 2008- 2012. Os resultados são obtidos a partir da estimação de uma forma reduzida obtida em Campbell e Cocco (2007) que aproxima um modelo estrutural. As estimativas para o caso brasileiro são inferiores as de Campbell e Cocco (2007), que, por sua vez, utilizaram microdados britânicos. O segundo artigo, "Uma medida alternativa de capital humano para o estudo empírico do crescimento", propõe uma forma de mensuração do estoque de capital humano que reflita diretamente preços de mercado, através do valor presente do fluxo de renda real futura. Os impactos dessa medida alternativa são avaliados a partir da estimação da função de produção tradicional dos modelos de crescimento neoclássico. Os dados compõem um painel de 25 países observados entre 1970 e 2010. Um exercício de robustez é realizado para avaliar a estabilidade dos coeficientes estimados diante de variações em variáveis exógenas do modelo. Por sua vez, o terceiro artigo "Household Electricity Demand in Brazil: a microdata approach", parte de dados da Pesquisa de Orçamento Familiar (POF) para mensurar a elasticidade preço da demanda residencial brasileira por energia elétrica. O uso de microdados permite adotar abordagens que levem em consideração a seleção amostral. Seu efeito sobre a demanda de eletricidade é relevante, uma vez que esta demanda é derivada da demanda por estoque de bens duráveis. Nesse contexto, a escolha prévia do estoque de bens duráveis (e consequentemente, a escolha pela intensidade de energia desse estoque) condiciona a demanda por eletricidade dos domicílios. Finalmente, o quarto trabalho, "Interpolação de Variáveis Fiscais Brasileiras usando Representação de Espaço de Estados" procurou sanar o problema de baixa periodicidade da divulgação de séries fiscais de Estados e Municípios brasileiros. Através de técnica de interpolação baseada no Filtro de Kalman, as séries mensais não observadas são projetadas a partir de séries bimestrais parcialmente observadas e covariáveis mensais selecionadas.

The Real Plan: Stabilization and destabilization

The paper analyzes Brazil's Real Plan, an exchange-rate based stabilization program, implemented in 1994, which mixed a spectacular price stabilization with some serious macroeconomic destabilization. The paper focuses on two of these imbalances: the consumption boom and the financial destabilization; showing that the former represented nothing the reverse side of a collapsed investment boom, which, in turn, led to the financial (banking) crisis. We hold that these instabilities were produced by a policy arrangement in which monetary and fiscal policies alone had to compensate for a largely appreciated, almost fixed, exchange rate anchor. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Class contestations and Australia’s resource boom : the emergence of the ‘cashed-up bogan’

This article examines the figure of the ‘Cashed-up Bogan’ or ‘Cub’ in Australian media from 2006 to 2009. It explains that ‘Bogan’, like that of ‘Chav’ in Britain, is a widely engaged negative descriptor for the white working-class poor. In contrast, ‘Cubs’ have economic capital. This capital, and the Cub’s emergence, is linked to Australia’s resource boom of recent decades when the need for skilled labour allowed for a highly demarcated segment of the working class to earn relatively high incomes in the mining sector and to participate in consumption. We argue that access to economic capital has provided the Cub with mobility to enter the everyday spaces of the middle class, but this has caused disruption and anxiety to middle-class hegemony. As a result, the middle class has redrawn and reinforced class-infused symbolic and cultural boundaries, whereby, despite their wealth, pernicious media representations mark Cubs as ‘other’ to the middle-class deservingness, taste and morality.

Organized Retail Market Boom and the Indian Society

IT and related services played a major role for India’s current 9.2. GDP growth. Organized retailing in India is one more example for its open economy. The IT industries where able develop a demand for Indian talents all over the world and improved their living standards. It directly impacts only a small minority of Indian population while organized retail affects every single Indian and every sector of Indian society. The paper gives a glimpse of the slow evolution of retail market over the years in India and its contribution for economic growth. The likely positive impact of this revolution in different sectors is enumerated. Paper addresses its ability to manipulate consumption pattern of society, increased customer satisfaction and likely change in the market shares of the different types of sellers. Paper discusses its flip sides like increasing social tension among families below poverty line and greater loss of self employment opportunities by this revolution. The main theme of enquiry of this paper is what it all means for the Indian society.

A DSGE model with loss aversion in consumption and leisure: an explanation for business cycles asymmetries

In this chapter, an asymmetric DSGE model is built in order to account for asymmetries in business cycles. One of the most important contributions of this work is the construction of a general utility function which nests loss aversion, risk aversion and habits formation by means of a smooth transition function. The main idea behind this asymmetric utility function is that under recession the agents over-smooth consumption and leisure choices in order to prevent a huge deviation of them from the reference level of the utility; while under boom, the agents simply smooth consumption and leisure, but trying to be as far as possible from the reference level of utility. The simulations of this model by means of Perturbations Method show that it is possible to reproduce asymmetrical business cycles where recession (on shock) are stronger than booms and booms are more long-lasting than recession. One additional and unexpected result is a downward stickiness displayed by real wages. As a consequence of this, there is a more persistent fall in employment in recession than in boom. Thus, the model reproduces not only asymmetrical business cycles but also real stickiness and hysteresis.

Social ideological influences on food consumption and BMI

Social ideologies appeared to influence dietary behaviour, physical activity and BMI. These influences varied through different pathways in younger and older baby boomers. Studies provide insight into the segmentation of baby boomer population in relation to concrete social ideologies that could be used for policy development and effective health promotion.

Uma estética do paradoxo: aspectos do melodrama no romance latino-americano do pós-boom

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Mining and Energy Boom, Dutch Disease and Informality in Colombia: a DSGE Approach

The paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, which assesses the macroeconomic and labor market effects derived from simulating a positive shock to the stochastic component of the mining-energy sector productivity. Calibrating the model for the Colombian economy, this shock generates a whole increase in formal wages and a raise in tax revenues, expanding total consumption of the household members. These facts increase non-tradable goods prices relative to tradable goods prices, then real exchange rate decreases (appreciation) and occurs a displacement of productive resources from the tradable (manufacturing) sector to the non-tradable sector, followed by an increase in formal GDP and formal job gains. This situation makes the formal sector to absorb workers from the informal sector through the non-tradable formal subsector, which causes informal GDP to go down. As a consequence, in the net consumption falls for informal workers, which leads some members of the household not to offer their labor force in the informal sector but instead they prefer to keep unemployed. Therefore, the final result on the labor market is a decrease in the number of informal workers, of which a part are in the formal sector and the rest are unemployed.

Mobile phone consumption and implications for SMS marketing

This paper reports on a Q-methodology study on the consumption of mobile phones and opinions on SMS-marketing, extracted from interpretive interviews and focus groups. The Metaphors Q-sort, developed within a framework of Holt's (1995) four metaphors of consumption, identifies three experiential value clusters in the consumption of mobile phones: the Mobile Pragmatists, the Mobile Connectors and the Mobile Revelers. The SMS-marketing Q-sort identifies two key clusters of subjective opinions on various aspects of SMS-based mobile-marketing. By integrating the findings from these two Q-sorts, we demonstrate that while all three value clusters express positive opinions towards ‘location specific’ and ‘customer initiated contact’ SMS-marketing, there are noticeable differences in how marketers should develop their strategies to maximize the consumers’ perceived experiential value derived from the consumption of their mobile phones. Keywords: mobile phones; experiential consumption: SMS-marketing; Q-methodology

M-technology, Consumption and Gambling: A Conceptualisation of Consumer Vulnerability in an M-gambling Marketplace

Technology imbued m-marketing systems influence the consumptive lives of citizens, by facilitating anytime, anywhere business-to-consumer interactions. Business pundits’ enthusiasm towards mobile services (m-services) has been driven by the promise of a marketspace context involving seamless, business-to-consumer interactions that can be simultaneously impulse-driven, highly entertaining and omnipresent. Arguably, gambling too is impulse-driven, exciting and easily accessible. An important question that needs to be addressed is: how the convergence of mobile technology and gambling will impact the millennial consumer. The authors address this question by examining the contextually bounded interactions between internal and external factors that make mobile phone users potentially vulnerable during m-gambling interactions. By examining key themes that describe the convergence of m-technology and gambling, we clarify the experiential nature of m-gambling and its relationship to consumer vulnerability.