Consumer Confidence and Yield Spreads in Europe

This paper shows the extraordinary capacity of yield spreads to anticipate consumption growth as proxy by the Economic Sentiment Indicator elaborated by the European Commission in order to predict turning points in business cycles. This new evidence complements the well known results regarding the usefulness of the slope of the term structure of interest rates to predict real economic conditions and, in particular, recessions by using a direct measure of expectations. A linear combination of European yield spreads explains a surprising 93.7% of the variability of the Economic Sentiment Indicator. Yield spreads seem to be a key determinant of consumer confidence in Europe.

Consumer confidence indices and stock markets’ meltdowns

Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries’ economic health and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000–2002 and the 2007–2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets’ investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements (DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann 1990); however, we find that the CCI–stock market relationship is not universally positive.We also do not find support for the information effect documented in the previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations.

Consumer confidence and economic growth: case studies of Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago

Includes bibliography

Brazil: how macroeconomic variables affect consumer confidence

Includes bibliography

On the Economic Aspects of Unemployment: The Case of Consumer Confidence

Unemployment is related to economic, political and social aspects. One of the least analysed economic aspects is the relationship of unemployment to the level of confidence that characterizes some macroeconomic relevant agents, such as consumers or investors. Expanding previous work on this matter, this chapter considers a fuzzy logic methodology in order to uncover the relationship that exists between the unemployment rate and the consumer confidence level for a large group of European Union countries, in the period 1995-2015. It is concluded that this relationship is stronger than apparently it looks, especially in certain countries. This result should therefore be used as an extra argument in making economic decisions leading to the diminishment of unemployment, which will boost economic confidence.

Management of 'Tough' fish syndrome (TFS) in tropical Saddletail Snapper to re-instill market confidence

Successful identification of these factors influence upon TFS will empower stakeholders to make informed decisions as to how to best utilise the resource, boost consumer confidence thus ensuring the improved profitability of the fishery into the future.

Sorry Joe, consumer spending will disappoint Santa this Christmas

Treasurer Joe Hockey called on shoppers this week to “not let Santa down” and asked them to spend up big at the stores this Christmas. Unfortunately, the latest retail and consumer confidence data indicate his calls are falling on deaf ears. Westpac’s Consumer Confidence Index shows pessimists outnumber optimists. This has been the case for the last nine months. The index was up 1.9% in November, but still well below its level a year ago.

Do Households Have Rational Expectations on Future Consumption? Evidence from the Finnish Consumer Survey

Ever since its initial introduction some fifty years ago, the rational expectations paradigm has dominated the way economic theory handles uncertainty. The main assertion made by John F. Muth (1961), seen by many as the father of the paradigm, is that expectations of rational economic agents should essentially be equal to the predictions of relevant economic theory, since rational agents should use information available to them in an optimal way. This assumption often has important consequences on the results and interpretations of the models where it is applied. Although the rational expectations assumption can be applied to virtually any economic theory, the focus in this thesis is on macroeconomic theories of consumption, especially the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis proposed by Robert E. Hall in 1978. The much-debated theory suggests that, assuming that agents have rational expectations on their future income, consumption decisions should follow a random walk, and the best forecast of future consumption level is the current consumption level. Then, changes in consumption are unforecastable. This thesis constructs an empirical test for the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis using Finnish Consumer Survey data as well as various Finnish macroeconomic data. The data sample covers the years 1995–2010. Consumer survey data may be interpreted to directly represent household expectations, which makes it an interesting tool for this particular test. The variable to be predicted is the growth of total household consumption expenditure. The main empirical result is that the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), a balance figure computed from the most important consumer survey responses, does have statistically significant predictive power over the change in total consumption expenditure. The history of consumption expenditure growth itself, however, fails to predict its own future values. This indicates that the CCI contains some information that the history of consumption decisions does not, and that the consumption decisions are not optimal in the theoretical context. However, when conditioned on various macroeconomic variables, the CCI loses its predictive ability. This finding suggests that the index is merely a (partial) summary of macroeconomic information, and does not contain any significant private information on consumption intentions of households not directly deductible from the objective economic variables. In conclusion, the Rational Expectations–Permanent Income Hypothesis is strongly rejected by the empirical results in this thesis. This result is in accordance with most earlier studies conducted on the topic.

Farm animal welfare, consumer willingness to pay, and trust: results of a cross-national survey

Higher animal welfare standards increase costs along the supply chain of certified animal-friendly products (AFP). Since the market outcome of certified AFP depends on consumer confidence toward supply chain operators complying with these standards, the role of trust in consumer willingness-to-pay (WTP) for AFP is paramount. Results from a contingent valuation survey administered in five European Union countries show that WTP estimates were sensitive to robust measures of consumer trust for certified AFP. Deriving the WTP effect of a single food category on total food expenditure is difficult for survey respondents; hence, a budget approach was employed to facilitate this process.

American cooperatives and consumer motivations : an exploratory study /

Cover title.

Direct and indirect effects on households’ intentions to replace the old car

With the purpose of testing the hypothesis that households’ intentions to replace their old car have a direct negative relationship to its perceived quality (‘current level’) and a direct positive relationship to their aspirations for a new car (‘aspiration level’), a rotating panel of car owners were interviewed every fourth month during 2 years. In this data set the hypothesis received support. In addition the results showed that the age of the car, the total number of miles driven, and the number of anticipated repairs affected the current level, whereas marital status, the number of children, consumer confidence, and environmental concern affected the aspiration level.

Towards improved speech recognition for resource poor languages

In recent times, the improved levels of accuracy obtained by Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) technology has made it viable for use in a number of commercial products. Unfortunately, these types of applications are limited to only a few of the world’s languages, primarily because ASR development is reliant on the availability of large amounts of language specific resources. This motivates the need for techniques which reduce this language-specific, resource dependency. Ideally, these approaches should generalise across languages, thereby providing scope for rapid creation of ASR capabilities for resource poor languages. Cross Lingual ASR emerges as a means for addressing this need. Underpinning this approach is the observation that sound production is largely influenced by the physiological construction of the vocal tract, and accordingly, is human, and not language specific. As a result, a common inventory of sounds exists across languages; a property which is exploitable, as sounds from a resource poor, target language can be recognised using models trained on resource rich, source languages. One of the initial impediments to the commercial uptake of ASR technology was its fragility in more challenging environments, such as conversational telephone speech. Subsequent improvements in these environments has gained consumer confidence. Pragmatically, if cross lingual techniques are to considered a viable alternative when resources are limited, they need to perform under the same types of conditions. Accordingly, this thesis evaluates cross lingual techniques using two speech environments; clean read speech and conversational telephone speech. Languages used in evaluations are German, Mandarin, Japanese and Spanish. Results highlight that previously proposed approaches provide respectable results for simpler environments such as read speech, but degrade significantly when in the more taxing conversational environment. Two separate approaches for addressing this degradation are proposed. The first is based on deriving better target language lexical representation, in terms of the source language model set. The second, and ultimately more successful approach, focuses on improving the classification accuracy of context-dependent (CD) models, by catering for the adverse influence of languages specific phonotactic properties. Whilst the primary research goal in this thesis is directed towards improving cross lingual techniques, the catalyst for investigating its use was based on expressed interest from several organisations for an Indonesian ASR capability. In Indonesia alone, there are over 200 million speakers of some Malay variant, provides further impetus and commercial justification for speech related research on this language. Unfortunately, at the beginning of the candidature, limited research had been conducted on the Indonesian language in the field of speech science, and virtually no resources existed. This thesis details the investigative and development work dedicated towards obtaining an ASR system with a 10000 word recognition vocabulary for the Indonesian language.

'The comfort lies in all the things you can do': the Australian drive-in: cinema of distraction

Contrary to the claims of some film historians, the drive-in was not a uniquely American invention. Australian drive-in cinemas were, at least in the 1950s and 1960s, distinguishable from their American counterparts by virtue of the profusion of additional amusements (or distractions) they offered alongside film-viewing. This article traces the history of Australian drive-ins as ‘entertainment centres’ and ‘high temples of modernity’. It argues that the drive-in can usefully be understood as a mid-point between the domestic and public spheres, and a powerful symbol of post-WWII Australia, signifying prosperity, gathering consumer confidence and, in metropolitan areas, marking the path of urban development through its concentration in new, outer suburban areas.

Label-free SERS for natural product provenance

Introduction Natural product provenance is important in the food, beverage and pharmaceutical industries, for consumer confidence and with health implications. Raman spectroscopy has powerful molecular fingerprint abilities. Surface Enhanced Raman Spectroscopy’s (SERS) sharp peaks allow distinction between minimally different molecules, so it should be suitable for this purpose. Methods Naturally caffeinated beverages with Guarana extract, coffee and Red Bull energy drink as a synthetic caffeinated beverage for comparison (20 µL ea.) were reacted 1:1 with Gold nanoparticles functionalised with anti-caffeine antibody (ab15221) (10 minutes), air dried and analysed in a micro-Raman instrument. The spectral data was processed using Principle Component Analysis (PCA). Results The PCA showed Guarana sourced caffeine varied significantly from synthetic caffeine (Red Bull) on component 1 (containing 76.4% of the variance in the data). See figure 1. The coffee containing beverages, and in particular Robert Timms (instant coffee) were very similar on component 1, but the barista espresso showed minor variance on component 1. Both coffee sourced caffeine samples varied with red Bull on component 2, (20% of variance). ************************************************************ Figure 1 PCA comparing a naturally caffeinated beverage containing Guarana with coffee. ************************************************************ Discussion PCA is an unsupervised multivariate statistical method that determines patterns within data. Figure 1 shows Caffeine in Guarana is notably different to synthetic caffeine. Other researchers have revealed that caffeine in Guarana plants is complexed with tannins. Naturally sourced/ lightly processed caffeine (Monster Energy, Espresso) are more inherently different than synthetic (Red Bull) /highly processed (Robert Timms) caffeine, in figure 1, which is consistent with this finding and demonstrates this technique’s applicability. Guarana provenance is important because it is still largely hand produced and its demand is escalating with recognition of its benefits. This could be a powerful technique for Guarana provenance, and may extend to other industries where provenance / authentication are required, e.g. the wine or natural pharmaceuticals industries.