How robust are global conservation priorities to climate change?

International conservation organisations have identified priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These global-scale prioritisations affect the distribution of funds for conservation interventions. As each organisation has a different focus, each prioritisation scheme is determined by different decision criteria and the resultant priority areas vary considerably. However, little is known about how the priority areas will respond to the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we examined the robustness of eight global-scale prioritisations to climate change under various climate predictions from seven global circulation models. We developed a novel metric of the climate stability for 803 ecoregions based on a recently introduced method to estimate the overlap of climate envelopes. The relationships between the decision criteria and the robustness of the global prioritisation schemes were statistically examined. We found that decision criteria related to level of endemism and landscape fragmentation were strongly correlated with areas predicted to be robust to a changing climate. Hence, policies that prioritise intact areas due to the likely cost efficiency, and assumptions related to the potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change, require further examination. Our findings will help determine where additional management is required to enable biodiversity to adapt to the impacts of climate change

A return-on-investment framework to identify conservation priorities in Africa

Environmental conservation activities must continue to become more efficient and effective, especially in Africa where development and population growth pressures continue to escalate. Recently, prioritization of conservation resources has focused on explicitly incorporating the economic costs of conservation along with better defining the outcomes of these expenditures. We demonstrate how new global and continental data that spans social, economic, and ecological sectors creates an opportunity to incorporate return-on-investment (ROI) principles into conservation priority setting for Africa. We suggest that combining conservation priorities that factor in biodiversity value, habitat quality, and conservation management investments across terrestrial, freshwater, and coastal marine environments provides a new lens for setting global conservation priorities. Using this approach we identified seven regions capturing interior and coastal resources that also have high ROI values that support further investment. We illustrate how spatially explicit, yet flexible ROI analysis can help to better address uncertainty, risk, and opportunities for conservation, while making values that guide prioritization more transparent. In one case the results of this prioritization process were used to support new conservation investments. Acknowledging a clear research need to improve cost information, we propose that adopting a flexible ROI framework to set conservation priorities in Africa has multiple potential benefits.

Amphibian Hotspots and Conservation Priorities in Eastern Cuba Identified by Species Distribution Modeling

The high rate of amphibian endemism and the severe habitat modification in the Caribbean islands make them an ideal place to test if the current protected areas network might protect this group. In this study, we model distribution and map species richness of the 40 amphibian species from eastern Cuba with the objectives of identify hotspots, detect gaps in species representation in protected areas, and select additional areas to fill these gaps. We used two modeling methods, Maxent and Habitat Suitability Models, to reach a consensus distribution map for each species, then calculate species richness by combining specific models and finally performed gap analyses for species and hotspots. Our results showed that the models were robust enough to predict species distributions and that most of the amphibian hotspots were represented in reserves, but 50 percent of the species were incompletely covered and Eleutherodactylus rivularis was totally uncovered by the protected areas. We identified 1441 additional km2 (9.9% of the study area) that could be added to the current protected areas, allowing the representation of every species and all hotspots. Our results are relevant for the conservation planning in other Caribbean islands, since studies like this could contribute to fill the gaps in the existing protected areas and to design a future network. Both cases would benefit from modeling amphibian species distribution using available data, even if they are incomplete, rather than relying only in the protection of known or suspected hotspots.

Using Bird Distributions to Assess Extinction Risk and Identify Conservation Priorities in Biodiversity Hotspots

Habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation threaten the World’s ecosystems and species. These, and other threats, will likely be exacerbated by climate change. Due to a limited budget for conservation, we are forced to prioritize a few areas over others. These places are selected based on their uniqueness and vulnerability. One of the most famous examples is the biodiversity hotspots: areas where large quantities of endemic species meet alarming rates of habitat loss. Most of these places are in the tropics, where species have smaller ranges, diversity is higher, and ecosystems are most threatened.

Species distributions are useful to understand ecological theory and evaluate extinction risk. Small-ranged species, or those endemic to one place, are more vulnerable to extinction than widely distributed species. However, current range maps often overestimate the distribution of species, including areas that are not within the suitable elevation or habitat for a species. Consequently, assessment of extinction risk using these maps could underestimate vulnerability.

In order to be effective in our quest to conserve the World’s most important places we must: 1) Translate global and national priorities into practical local actions, 2) Find synergies between biodiversity conservation and human welfare, 3) Evaluate the different dimensions of threats, in order to design effective conservation measures and prepare for future threats, and 4) Improve the methods used to evaluate species’ extinction risk and prioritize areas for conservation. The purpose of this dissertation is to address these points in Colombia and other global biodiversity hotspots.

In Chapter 2, I identified the global, strategic conservation priorities and then downscaled to practical local actions within the selected priorities in Colombia. I used existing range maps of 171 bird species to identify priority conservation areas that would protect the greatest number of species at risk in Colombia (endemic and small-ranged species). The Western Andes had the highest concentrations of such species—100 in total—but the lowest densities of national parks. I then adjusted the priorities for this region by refining these species ranges by selecting only areas of suitable elevation and remaining habitat. The estimated ranges of these species shrank by 18–100% after accounting for habitat and suitable elevation. Setting conservation priorities on the basis of currently available range maps excluded priority areas in the Western Andes and, by extension, likely elsewhere and for other taxa. By incorporating detailed maps of remaining natural habitats, I made practical recommendations for conservation actions. One recommendation was to restore forest connections to a patch of cloud forest about to become isolated from the main Andes.

For Chapter 3, I identified areas where bird conservation met ecosystem service protection in the Central Andes of Colombia. Inspired by the November 11th (2011) landslide event near Manizales, and the current poor results of Colombia’s Article 111 of Law 99 of 1993 as a conservation measure in this country, I set out to prioritize conservation and restoration areas where landslide prevention would complement bird conservation in the Central Andes. This area is one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, but also one of the most threatened. Using the case of the Rio Blanco Reserve, near Manizales, I identified areas for conservation where endemic and small-range bird diversity was high, and where landslide risk was also high. I further prioritized restoration areas by overlapping these conservation priorities with a forest cover map. Restoring forests in bare areas of high landslide risk and important bird diversity yields benefits for both biodiversity and people. I developed a simple landslide susceptibility model using slope, forest cover, aspect, and stream proximity. Using publicly available bird range maps, refined by elevation, I mapped concentrations of endemic and small-range bird species. I identified 1.54 km2 of potential restoration areas in the Rio Blanco Reserve, and 886 km2 in the Central Andes region. By prioritizing these areas, I facilitate the application of Article 111 which requires local and regional governments to invest in land purchases for the conservation of watersheds.

Chapter 4 dealt with elevational ranges of montane birds and the impact of lowland deforestation on their ranges in the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot. Using point counts and mist-nets, I surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400m. I compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analyzing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, I tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species’ elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species’ elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

In Chapter 5, I refine the ranges of 726 species from six biodiversity hotspots by suitable elevation and habitat. This set of 172 bird species for the Atlantic Forest, 138 for Central America, 100 for the Western Andes of Colombia, 57 for Madagascar, 102 for Sumatra, and 157 for Southeast Asia met the criteria for range size, endemism, threat, and forest use. Of these 586 species, the Red List deems 108 to be threatened: 15 critically endangered, 29 endangered, and 64 vulnerable. When ranges are refined by elevational limits and remaining forest cover, 10 of those critically endangered species have ranges < 100km2, but then so do 2 endangered species, seven vulnerable, and eight non-threatened ones. Similarly, 4 critically endangered species, 20 endangered, and 12 vulnerable species have refined ranges < 5000km2, but so do 66 non-threatened species. A striking 89% of these species I have classified in higher threat categories have <50% of their refined ranges inside protected areas. I find that for 43% of the species I assessed, refined range sizes fall within thresholds that typically have higher threat categories than their current assignments. I recommend these species for closer inspection by those who assess risk. These assessments are not only important on a species-by-species basis, but by combining distributions of threatened species, I create maps of conservation priorities. They differ significantly from those created from unrefined ranges.

Priorities for the Nongame Wildlife Conservation Fund : conference proceedings : December 3, 1983, Brookens Auditorium, Sangamon State University /

Cover title.

Restricted-Range Fishes and the Conservation of Brazilian Freshwaters

Background: Freshwaters are the most threatened ecosystems on earth. Although recent assessments provide data on global priority regions for freshwater conservation, local scale priorities remain unknown. Refining the scale of global biodiversity assessments (both at terrestrial and freshwater realms) and translating these into conservation priorities on the ground remains a major challenge to biodiversity science, and depends directly on species occurrence data of high taxonomic and geographic resolution. Brazil harbors the richest freshwater ichthyofauna in the world, but knowledge on endemic areas and conservation in Brazilian rivers is still scarce. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using data on environmental threats and revised species distribution data we detect and delineate 540 small watershed areas harboring 819 restricted-range fishes in Brazil. Many of these areas are already highly threatened, as 159 (29%) watersheds have lost more than 70% of their original vegetation cover, and only 141 (26%) show significant overlap with formally protected areas or indigenous lands. We detected 220 (40%) critical watersheds overlapping hydroelectric dams or showing both poor formal protection and widespread habitat loss; these sites harbor 344 endemic fish species that may face extinction if no conservation action is in place in the near future. Conclusions/Significance: We provide the first analysis of site-scale conservation priorities in the richest freshwater ecosystems of the globe. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that freshwater biodiversity has been neglected in former conservation assessments. The study provides a simple and straightforward method for detecting freshwater priority areas based on endemism and threat, and represents a starting point for integrating freshwater and terrestrial conservation in representative and biogeographically consistent site-scale conservation strategies, that may be scaled-up following naturally linked drainage systems. Proper management (e. g. forestry code enforcement, landscape planning) and conservation (e. g. formal protection) of the 540 watersheds detected herein will be decisive in avoiding species extinction in the richest aquatic ecosystems on the planet.

Biogeographical concordance and efficiency of taxon indicators for establishing conservation priority in a tropical rainforest biota

Prioritizing areas for conservation requires the use of surrogates for assessing overall patterns of biodiversity. Effective surrogates will reflect general biogeographical patterns and the evolutionary processes that have given rise to these and their efficiency is likely to lie influenced by several factors, including the spatial scale of species turnover and the overall congruence of the biogeographical history. We examine patterns of surrogacy for insects, snails, one family of plants and vertebrates from rainforests of northeast Queensland, an area characterized by high endemicity and an underlying history of climate-induced vicariance. Nearly all taxa provided some level of prediction of the conservation values For others. However, despite an overall correlation of the patterns of species richness and complementarity, the efficiency of surrogacy was highly asymmetric.. snails and insects were strong predictors of conservation priorities for vertebrates, but not vice versa. These results confirm predictions that taxon surrogates can be effective in highly diverse tropical systems where there is a strong history of vicariant biogeography, but also indicate that correlated patterns for species richness and/or complementarity do not guarantee that one taxon will be efficient as a surrogate for another. In our case, the highly diverse and narrowly distributed invertebrates were more efficient as predictors than the less diverse and more broadly distributed vertebrates.

Stichelia pelotensis (Lepidoptera, Riodinidae): conservation, notes, and rediscovery of an endangered butterfly from southern Brazil

ABSTRACT Stichelia pelotensis (Lepidoptera, Riodinidae) is an endemic and threatened butterfly from the Pampa biome in southern Brazil, and has not been recorded in its type locality in the last 56 years. Recently, a population was found in two sites from extreme south Brazil, Pelotas, Rio Grande do Sul state. These records are an important find given the conservation status of S. pelotensis, since all the information gathered is new and involve the natural history of this species. The information obtained is useful for the management, monitoring and conservation priorities of this species and its associated habitats, since its known distribution is restricted to a narrow area in the Rio Grande do Sul Coastal Plain inside this threatened biome in southern Brazil.

Ulmus laevis in the Iberian Peninsula: a review of its ecology and conservation

European white elm (Ulmus laevis Pallas) populations are scarce, small and fragmented in the Iberian Peninsula. Due to these characteristics the indigenous status of the species in the region has been questioned, whilst the species? role in Iberian riparian forest ecology has been neglected. Herein we review past studies regarding this species? distribution and ecology in the Iberian Peninsula, with special emphasis on the establishment of conservation priorities. We first present a collection of palaeogeographic, historic and genetic data suggesting that the Iberian Peninsula was a glacial refuge for U. laevis. Secondly, we analyse U. laevis distribution in relation to soil physico- chemical properties and water availability in Spain. Following this, we focus on the reproductive biology of the species, and investigate the effect of masting and empty seed production on predation and regeneration establishment. Finally, based on this knowledge, we propose conservation policies for U. laevis in the Iberian Peninsula.

Capturing expert knowledge for threatened species assessments: a case study using NatureServe conservation status ranks

Assessments for assigning the conservation status of threatened species that are based purely on subjective judgements become problematic because assessments can be influenced by hidden assumptions, personal biases and perceptions of risks, making the assessment process difficult to repeat. This can result in inconsistent assessments and misclassifications, which can lead to a lack of confidence in species assessments. It is almost impossible to Understand an expert's logic or visualise the underlying reasoning behind the many hidden assumptions used throughout the assessment process. In this paper, we formalise the decision making process of experts, by capturing their logical ordering of information, their assumptions and reasoning, and transferring them into a set of decisions rules. We illustrate this through the process used to evaluate the conservation status of species under the NatureServe system (Master, 1991). NatureServe status assessments have been used for over two decades to set conservation priorities for threatened species throughout North America. We develop a conditional point-scoring method, to reflect the current subjective process. In two test comparisons, 77% of species' assessments using the explicit NatureServe method matched the qualitative assessments done subjectively by NatureServe staff. Of those that differed, no rank varied by more than one rank level under the two methods. In general, the explicit NatureServe method tended to be more precautionary than the subjective assessments. The rank differences that emerged from the comparisons may be due, at least in part, to the flexibility of the qualitative system, which allows different factors to be weighted on a species-by-species basis according to expert judgement. The method outlined in this study is the first documented attempt to explicitly define a transparent process for weighting and combining factors under the NatureServe system. The process of eliciting expert knowledge identifies how information is combined and highlights any inconsistent logic that may not be obvious in Subjective decisions. The method provides a repeatable, transparent, and explicit benchmark for feedback, further development, and improvement. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Determining conservation priority areas for Palearctic passerine migrant birds in sub-Saharan Africa

Migratory bird species breeding in the Palearctic and overwintering in sub-Saharan Africa face multiple conservation challenges. As a result, many of these species have declined in recent decades, some dramatically. We therefore used the best available database for the distribution of 68 passerine migrants in sub-Saharan Africa to determine priority regions for their conservation. After modeling each species’ distribution using BIOMOD software, we entered the resulting species distributions at a 1° × 1° grid resolution into MARXAN software. We then used several different selection procedures that varied the boundary length modifier, species penalty factor, and the inclusion of grid cells with high human footprint and with protected areas. While results differed between selection procedures, four main regions were regularly selected: (1) one centered on southern Mali; (2) one including Eritrea, central Sudan, and northern Ethiopia; (3) one encompassing southwestern Kenya and much of Tanzania and Uganda; and (4) one including much of Zimbabwe and southwestern Zambia. We recommend that these four regions become priority regions for research and conservation efforts for the bird species considered in this study.

Exploited anadromous fish in Portugal: Suggested direction for conservation and management.

Sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) and allis shad (Alosa alosa) have been fished for centuries in mainland Portugal during their upstream spawning migration. Here, biological information is compared for the two species and governance and monitoring data from Portugal are reviewed to propose species-specific courses of future action. Despite a national fisheries legislation common for the two species and the designation of Sites of Community Interest (SCIs) for both, the current conservation needs for sea lamprey and allis shad in Portugal are considered to be distinct. For sea lamprey, conservation priorities must focus on planning fisheries managementinarticulationwithhabitatrecoverytoguaranteecost-effective monitoring andsustainablelong-termexploitationthataddsvaluetolocalcommunitiesandpaysdue taxation. Onthecontrary,conservationconcernsandactionsforallisshadmuststrengthenandbemore proactive in the reduction of fishing mortality, both target (in rivers) and by catch (at sea).There is a need to make better use of the opportunities inherent in the Habitats Directive and the possibility to define specific management actions within SCIs. To this effect, it will be necessary to revise existing legislation and guarantee better articulation between jurisdictional authorities. A good example in this direction is the articulation already established in the river Mondego where habitat restoration, fish monitoring and effective species-specific fisheries control measures have been taken and implemented in recent years by a large institutional partnership.

The use of contingent valuation for evaluating protected areas in the developing world: Economic valuation of Morro do Diabo State Park, Atlantic Rainforest, Sao Paulo State (Brazil)

The Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest is internationally recognised as one of the most biodiverse and threatened tropical forests in the world [Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C.G., da Fonseca, G.A.B., Kent, J., 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature 403, 853-858]. The Seasonal Semi-Deciduous Forest is among the most fragmented and threatened biomes of the Atlantic Rainforest Domain. The largest remnant of this biome (35,000 ha) is protected by the Morro do Diabo State Park (MDSP), situated in the area known as the Pontal do Paranapanema, in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. Despite its environmental importance, the park is under political, economic and demographic pressure. The main aim of our research was to estimate the population`s willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of MDSP and for the Atlantic Rainforest`s remnants in Sao Paulo State as a whole, by means of the contingent valuation method (CVM). The results featured a high incidence of null WTP and of protest votes. Nevertheless, the population is willing to pay US$ 2,113,548.00/year (R$ 7,080,385.00/year) for the conservation of the MDSP (use and existence values), or US$ 60.39 ha/year (R$ 202.30/ha/year). The results indicate that the preservation value is strongly associated to the population`s ability to pay, increasing with income levels. Qualitative research questions showed that the population considers protected areas to be very important. Still, the valuation of MDSP revealed a gap between the government budget allotted to the park and the value assigned to the area by the public. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss.

Current levels of endangerment and historical trends of species and habitats are the main criteria used to direct conservation efforts globally. Estimates of future declines, which might indicate different priorities than past declines, have been limited by the lack of appropriate data and models. Given that much of conservation is about anticipating and responding to future threats, our inability to look forward at a global scale has been a major constraint on effective action. Here, we assess the geography and extent of projected future changes in suitable habitat for terrestrial mammals within their present ranges. We used a global earth-system model, IMAGE, coupled with fine-scale habitat suitability models and parametrized according to four global scenarios of human development. We identified the most affected countries by 2050 for each scenario, assuming that no additional conservation actions other than those described in the scenarios take place. We found that, with some exceptions, most of the countries with the largest predicted losses of suitable habitat for mammals are in Africa and the Americas. African and North American countries were also predicted to host the most species with large proportional global declines. Most of the countries we identified as future hotspots of terrestrial mammal loss have little or no overlap with the present global conservation priorities, thus confirming the need for forward-looking analyses in conservation priority setting. The expected growth in human populations and consumption in hotspots of future mammal loss mean that local conservation actions such as protected areas might not be sufficient to mitigate losses. Other policies, directed towards the root causes of biodiversity loss, are required, both in Africa and other parts of the world.