Market power analysis in the Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations model

In the last years the electricity industry has faced a restructuring process. Among the aims of this process was the increase in competition, especially in the generation activity where firms would have an incentive to become more efficient. However, the competitive behavior of generating firms might jeopardize the expected benefits of the electricity industry liberalization. The present paper proposes a conjectural variations model to study the competitive behavior of generating firms acting in liberalized electricity markets. The model computes a parameter that represents the degree of competition of each generating firm in each trading period. In this regard, the proposed model provides a powerful methodology for regulatory and competition authorities to monitor the competitive behavior of generating firms. As an application of the model, a study of the day-ahead Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) was conducted to analyze the impact of the integration of the Portuguese and Spanish electricity markets on the behavior of generating firms taking into account the hourly results of the months of June and July of 2007. The advantages of the proposed methodology over other methodologies used to address market power, namely Residual Supply index and Lerner index are highlighted. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

The Farm-Retail Price Spread in an Imperfectly Competitive Food Industry

Gardner's popular model of perfect competition in the marketing sector is extended to a conjectural-variations oligopoly with endogenous entry. Revising Gardner's comparative statics on the "farm-retail price ratio," tests of hypotheses about food industry conduct are derived. Using data from a recent article by Wohlgenant, which employs Gardner's framework, tests are made of the validity of his maintained hypothesis-that the food industries are perfectly competitive. No evidence is found of departures from competition in the output markets of the food industries of eight commodity groups: (a) beef and veal, (b) pork, (c) poultry, (d) eggs, (e) dairy, (f) processed fruits and vegetables, (g) fresh fruit, and (h) fresh vegetables.

Evaluation of cumulative externality: environmental economics, oligopoly and the private provision of public goods

This paper evaluates environmental externality when the structure of the externality is cumulative. The evaluation exercise is based on the assumption that the agents in question form conjectural variations. A number of environments are encompassed within this classification and have received due attention in the literature. Each of these heterogeneous environments, however, possesses considerable analytical homogeneity and permit subscription to a general model treatment. These environments include environmental externality, oligopoly and the analysis of the private provision of public goods. We highlight the general analytical approach by focusing on this latter context, in which debate centers around four issues: the existence of free-riding, the extent to which contributions are matched equally across individuals, the nature of conjectures consistent with equilibrium, and the allocative inefficiency of alternative regimes. This paper resolves each of these issues, with the following conclusions: A consistent-conjectures equilibrium exists in the private provision of public goods. It is the monopolistic-conjectures equilibrium. Agents act identically, contributing positive amounts of the public good in an efficient allocation of resources. There is complete matching of contributions among agents, no free-riding, and the allocation is independent of the number of members within the community. Thus the Olson conjecture—that inefficiency is exacerbated by community size—has no foundation in a consistent-conjectures, cumulative-externality, context (212 words).

O mercado doméstico de transporte aéreo de passageiros: modelo de escolha de capacidade empregada em função da ação do regulador e da estrutura da indústria

O presente tabalho apresenta um modelo destinado à análise do mercado doméstico de transporte aéreo de passageiros. O modelo analisado permite acompanhar as escolhas ótimas das companhias aéreas quanto ao número de vôos ofertados e passageiros transportados diante das alterações no valor das tarifas promovidas pelo reguldor, tanto em equilibrio competitvo quanto monopolista e, alternativamente, caso a indústria atue como um oligopólio. Neste último caso, o modelo analisado permite que o equilíbrio da indústria seja mensurado em conjunto com parâmetros conjecturais de comportamento das firmas.

Rivalidad en el mercado español de depósitos bancarios: la teoría de los grupos estratégicos

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en examinar la rivalidad intra y entre grupos estratégicos de una industria. La literatura sobre la materia sugiere que las evidencias empíricas detectadas pueden verse afectadas por problemas operativos relacionados con la medición de la rivalidad. Como novedad, la metodología aplicada propone la utilización de dos enfoques de medición de la rivalidad, uno indirecto mediante la estimación de la variación conjetural, y una evaluación directa a través de las noticias sobre acciones y reacciones estratégicas detectadas en las publicaciones. La aplicación empírica realizada en el mercado español de depósitos bancarios no permite asegurar nada acerca de la mayor o menor rivalidad intra que entre grupos; pero los grupos estratégicos permiten predecir la forma en que cada entidad compite con las demás.

Molecular Variations In Aromatic Cosolutes: Critical Role In The Rheology Of Cationic Wormlike Micelles.

Wormlike micelles formed by the addition to cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) of a range of aromatic cosolutes with small molecular variations in their structure were systematically studied. Phenol and derivatives of benzoate and cinnamate were used, and the resulting mixtures were studied by oscillatory, steady-shear rheology, and the microstructure was probed by small-angle neutron scattering. The lengthening of the micelles and their entanglement result in remarkable viscoelastic properties, making rheology a useful tool to assess the effect of structural variations of the cosolutes on wormlike micelle formation. For a fixed concentration of CTAB and cosolute (200 mmol L(-1)), the relaxation time decreases in the following order: phenol > cinnamate> o-hydroxycinnamate > salicylate > o-methoxycinnamate > benzoate > o-methoxybenzoate. The variations in viscoelastic response are rationalized by using Mulliken population analysis to map out the electronic density of the cosolutes and quantify the barrier to rotation of specific groups on the aromatics. We find that the ability of the group attached to the aromatic ring to rotate is crucial in determining the packing of the cosolute at the micellar interface and thus critically impacts the micellar growth and, in turn, the rheological response. These results enable us for the first time to propose design rules for the self-assembly of the surfactants and cosolutes resulting in the formation of wormlike micelles with the cationic surfactant CTAB.

Variations in the sensitivity of different primers for detecting Wolbachia in Anastrepha (diptera: tephritidae)

Wolbachia are endosymbiont bacteria of the family Rickettsiacea that are widespread in invertebrates and occur between 20% and 60% of Neotropical insects. These bacteria are responsible for reproductive phenomena such as cytoplasmic incompatibility, male killing, feminization and parthenogenesis. Supergroups A and B of Wolbachia are common in insects and can be identified using primers for 16S rDNA, ftsZ and wsp; these primers vary in their ability to detect Wolbachia. The ftsZ primer was the first primer used to detect Wolbachia in Anastrepha fruit flies. The primers for 16S rDNA, ftsZ and wsp and the corresponding PCR conditions have been optimized to study the distribution of Wolbachia and their effect on the biology of Anastrepha in Brazil. In this work, we examined the ability of these primers to detect Wolbachia in Anastrepha populations from three regions in the State of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil. All of the samples were positive for Wolbachia supergroup A when screened with primers for 16S A rDNA and wsp A; the wsp B primer also gave a positive result, indicating cross-reactivity. The ftsZ primer showed a poor ability to detect Wolbachia in Anastrepha and generated false negatives in 44.9% of the samples. These findings indicate that reliable PCR detection of Wolbachia requires the use of primers for 16S rDNA and wsp to avoid cross-reactions and false negatives, and that the ftsZ primer needs to be redesigned to improve its selectivity.

Within- and between-person variations as determinant factors to calculate the number of observations to estimate usual dietary intake of adolescents

This cross-sectional study describes the variation in the dietary intake of energy and macronutrients based on estimated coefficients of within- and between-person variation and intends to calculate the number of days required to evaluate the dietary intake of adolescents in Piracicaba, Brazil. The sample was made up by ninety-two adolescents aged between eleven and sixteen years. Interviews were performed to assess demographic, anthropometric and dietary variables, which were evaluated by the answers obtained through two 24-hour recalls. Descriptive analyses were performed and variances and Coefficients of variation within- and between-person were obtained by results of one-way ANOVA. The mean energy intake observed was 2,326.2 kilocalories; mean macronutrient intake came to 89.0 grams of fatty acids, 305.3 grams of carbohydrates and 82.2 grams of proteins. Coefficients of within-person variation ranged from 36% to 45%, while between-person coefficients varied from 26% to 31%. Variance ratios ranged from 1.35 (carbohydrate) to 2.62 (protein). The lowest number of observations required to correctly evaluate the usual diet calculated (r = 0.90) was six days, for carbohydrates while the highest was eleven, for proteins. Coefficients of variation were similar to those observed in international studies. We conclude that, in this study, two observations were sufficient to obtain reasonable correlations. However, six evaluations are necessary for these adolescents in order to obtain excellent correlations.

Effects of Variations in Nonlinear Damping Coefficients on the Parametric Vibration of a Cantilever Beam with a Lumped Mass

Uncertainties in damping estimates can significantly affect the dynamic response of a given flexible structure. A common practice in linear structural dynamics is to consider a linear viscous damping model as the major energy dissipation mechanism. However, it is well known that different forms of energy dissipation can affect the structure's dynamic response. The major goal of this paper is to address the effects of the turbulent frictional damping force, also known as drag force on the dynamic behavior of a typical flexible structure composed of a slender cantilever beam carrying a lumped-mass on the tip. First, the system's analytical equation is obtained and solved by employing a perturbation technique. The solution process considers variations of the drag force coefficient and its effects on the system's response. Then, experimental results are presented to demonstrate the effects of the nonlinear quadratic damping due to the turbulent frictional force on the system's dynamic response. In particular, the effects of the quadratic damping on the frequency-response and amplitude-response curves are investigated. Numerically simulated as well as experimental results indicate that variations on the drag force coefficient significantly alter the dynamics of the structure under investigation. Copyright (c) 2008 D. G. Silva and P. S. Varoto.

Variations on a theme: diversification of cuticular hydrocarbons in a clade of cactophilic Drosophila

Background: We characterized variation and chemical composition of epicuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) in the seven species of the Drosophila buzzatii cluster with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Despite the critical role of CHCs in providing resistance to desiccation and involvement in communication, such as courtship behavior, mating, and aggregation, few studies have investigated how CHC profiles evolve within and between species in a phylogenetic context. We analyzed quantitative differences in CHC profiles in populations of the D. buzzatii species cluster in order to assess the concordance of CHC differentiation with species divergence. Results: Thirty-six CHC components were scored in single fly extracts with carbon chain lengths ranging from C(29) to C(39), including methyl-branched alkanes, n alkenes, and alkadienes. Multivariate analysis of variance revealed that CHC amounts were significantly different among all species and canonical discriminant function (CDF) analysis resolved all species into distinct, non-overlapping groups. Significant intraspecific variation was found in different populations of D. serido suggesting that this taxon is comprised of at least two species. We summarized CHC variation using CDF analysis and mapped the first five CHC canonical variates (CVs) onto an independently derived period (per) gene + chromosome inversion + mtDNA COI gene for each sex. We found that the COI sequences were not phylogenetically informative due to introgression between some species, so only per + inversion data were used. Positive phylogenetic signal was observed mainly for CV1 when parsimony methods and the test for serial independence (TFSI) were used. These results changed when no outgroup species were included in the analysis and phylogenetic signal was then observed for female CV3 and/or CV4 and male CV4 and CV5. Finally, removal of divergent populations of D. serido significantly increased the amount of phylogenetic signal as up to four out of five CVs then displayed positive phylogenetic signal. Conclusions: CHCs were conserved among species while quantitative differences in CHC profiles between populations and species were statistically significant. Most CHCs were species-, population-, and sex-specific. Mapping CHCs onto an independently derived phylogeny revealed that a significant portion of CHC variation was explained by species' systematic affinities indicating phylogenetic conservatism in the evolution of these hydrocarbon arrays, presumptive waterproofing compounds and courtship signals as in many other drosophilid species.

Variations in Human Herpesvirus Type 8 Seroprevalence in Native Americans, South America

To determine the epidemiology of human herpesvirus type 8 (HHV-8) among non-Amazonian native populations, we conducted a cross-sectional study in Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay. Our data show striking ethnic and geographic variations in the distribution of HHV-8 seroprevalences in Amazonian (77%) and non-Amazonian native populations (range 0%-83%).

Abundance variations in the globular cluster M71 (NGC 6838)

Context. Abundance variations in moderately metal-rich globular clusters can give clues about the formation and chemical enrichment of globular clusters. Aims. CN, CH, Na, Mg and Al indices in spectra of 89 stars of the template metal-rich globular cluster M71 are measured and implications on internal mixing are discussed. Methods. Stars from the turn-off up to the Red Giant Branch (0.87 < log g < 4.65) observed with the GMOS multi-object spectrograph at the Gemini-North telescope are analyzed. Radial velocities, colours, effective temperatures, gravities and spectral indices are determined for the sample. Results. Previous findings related to the CN bimodality and CN-CH anticorrelation in stars of M71 are confirmed. We also find a CN-Na correlation, and Al-Na, as well as an Mg(2)-Al anticorrelation. Conclusions. A combination of convective mixing and a primordial pollution by AGB or massive stars in the early stages of globular cluster formation is required to explain the observations.

Low-amplitude variations detected by CoRoT in the B8IIIe star HD 175869

Context. The origin of the short-term variability in Be stars remains a matter of controversy. Pulsations and rotational modulation are the components of the favored hypothesis. Aims. We present our analysis of CoRoT data of the B8IIIe star HD 175869 observed during the first short run in the center direction (SRC1). Methods. We review both the instrumental effects visible in the CoRoT light curve and the analysis methods used by the CoRoT Be team. We applied these methods to the CoRoT light curve of the star HD 175869. A search for line-profile variations in the spectroscopic data was also performed. We also searched for a magnetic field, by applying the LSD technique to spectropolarimetric data. Results. The light curve exhibits low-amplitude variations of the order of 300 mu mag with a double wave shape. A frequency within the range determined for the rotational frequency and 6 of its harmonics are detected. The main frequency and its first harmonic exhibit amplitude variations of a few days. Other significant frequencies of low-amplitude from 25 to a few mu mag are also found. The analysis of line profiles from ground-based spectroscopic data does not detect any variation. In addition, no Zeeman signature was found. Conclusions. Inhomogeneities caused by stellar activity in or just above the photosphere are proposed to produce the photometric variability detected by CoRoT in the Be star HD 175869. The hypothesis that non-radial pulsations are the origin of these variations cannot be excluded.

Polar organic marker compounds in atmospheric aerosols during the LBA-SMOCC 2002 biomass burning experiment in Rondonia, Brazil: sources and source processes, time series, diel variations and size distributions

Measurements of polar organic marker compounds were performed on aerosols that were collected at a pasture site in the Amazon basin (Rondonia, Brazil) using a high-volume dichotomous sampler (HVDS) and a Micro-Orifice Uniform Deposit Impactor (MOUDI) within the framework of the 2002 LBA-SMOCC (Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia - Smoke Aerosols, Clouds, Rainfall, and Climate: Aerosols From Biomass Burning Perturb Global and Regional Climate) campaign. The campaign spanned the late dry season (biomass burning), a transition period, and the onset of the wet season (clean conditions). In the present study a more detailed discussion is presented compared to previous reports on the behavior of selected polar marker compounds, including levoglucosan, malic acid, isoprene secondary organic aerosol (SOA) tracers and tracers for fungal spores. The tracer data are discussed taking into account new insights that recently became available into their stability and/or aerosol formation processes. During all three periods, levoglucosan was the most dominant identified organic species in the PM(2.5) size fraction of the HVDS samples. In the dry period levoglucosan reached concentrations of up to 7.5 mu g m(-3) and exhibited diel variations with a nighttime prevalence. It was closely associated with the PM mass in the size-segregated samples and was mainly present in the fine mode, except during the wet period where it peaked in the coarse mode. Isoprene SOA tracers showed an average concentration of 250 ng m(-3) during the dry period versus 157 ng m(-3) during the transition period and 52 ng m(-3) during the wet period. Malic acid and the 2-methyltetrols exhibited a different size distribution pattern, which is consistent with different aerosol formation processes (i.e., gas-to-particle partitioning in the case of malic acid and heterogeneous formation from gas-phase precursors in the case of the 2-methyltetrols). The 2-methyltetrols were mainly associated with the fine mode during all periods, while malic acid was prevalent in the fine mode only during the dry and transition periods, and dominant in the coarse mode during the wet period. The sum of the fungal spore tracers arabitol, mannitol, and erythritol in the PM(2.5) fraction of the HVDS samples during the dry, transition, and wet periods was, on average, 54 ng m(-3), 34 ng m(-3), and 27 ng m(-3), respectively, and revealed minor day/night variation. The mass size distributions of arabitol and mannitol during all periods showed similar patterns and an association with the coarse mode, consistent with their primary origin. The results show that even under the heavy smoke conditions of the dry period a natural background with contributions from bioaerosols and isoprene SOA can be revealed. The enhancement in isoprene SOA in the dry season is mainly attributed to an increased acidity of the aerosols, increased NO(x) concentrations and a decreased wet deposition.