Market power analysis in the Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations model

In the last years the electricity industry has faced a restructuring process. Among the aims of this process was the increase in competition, especially in the generation activity where firms would have an incentive to become more efficient. However, the competitive behavior of generating firms might jeopardize the expected benefits of the electricity industry liberalization. The present paper proposes a conjectural variations model to study the competitive behavior of generating firms acting in liberalized electricity markets. The model computes a parameter that represents the degree of competition of each generating firm in each trading period. In this regard, the proposed model provides a powerful methodology for regulatory and competition authorities to monitor the competitive behavior of generating firms. As an application of the model, a study of the day-ahead Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) was conducted to analyze the impact of the integration of the Portuguese and Spanish electricity markets on the behavior of generating firms taking into account the hourly results of the months of June and July of 2007. The advantages of the proposed methodology over other methodologies used to address market power, namely Residual Supply index and Lerner index are highlighted. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Price forecasting in the day-ahead Iberian electricity market using a conjectural variations Arima model

Price forecast is a matter of concern for all participants in electricity markets, from suppliers to consumers through policy makers, which are interested in the accurate forecast of day-ahead electricity prices either for better decisions making or for an improved evaluation of the effectiveness of market rules and structure. This paper describes a methodology to forecast market prices in an electricity market using an ARIMA model applied to the conjectural variations of the firms acting in an electricity market. This methodology is applied to the Iberian electricity market to forecast market prices in the 24 hours of a working day. The methodology was then compared with two other methodologies, one called naive and the other a direct forecast of market prices using also an ARIMA model. Results show that the conjectural variations price forecast performs better than the naive and that it performs slightly better than the direct price forecast.

The Farm-Retail Price Spread in an Imperfectly Competitive Food Industry

Gardner's popular model of perfect competition in the marketing sector is extended to a conjectural-variations oligopoly with endogenous entry. Revising Gardner's comparative statics on the "farm-retail price ratio," tests of hypotheses about food industry conduct are derived. Using data from a recent article by Wohlgenant, which employs Gardner's framework, tests are made of the validity of his maintained hypothesis-that the food industries are perfectly competitive. No evidence is found of departures from competition in the output markets of the food industries of eight commodity groups: (a) beef and veal, (b) pork, (c) poultry, (d) eggs, (e) dairy, (f) processed fruits and vegetables, (g) fresh fruit, and (h) fresh vegetables.

Evaluation of cumulative externality: environmental economics, oligopoly and the private provision of public goods

This paper evaluates environmental externality when the structure of the externality is cumulative. The evaluation exercise is based on the assumption that the agents in question form conjectural variations. A number of environments are encompassed within this classification and have received due attention in the literature. Each of these heterogeneous environments, however, possesses considerable analytical homogeneity and permit subscription to a general model treatment. These environments include environmental externality, oligopoly and the analysis of the private provision of public goods. We highlight the general analytical approach by focusing on this latter context, in which debate centers around four issues: the existence of free-riding, the extent to which contributions are matched equally across individuals, the nature of conjectures consistent with equilibrium, and the allocative inefficiency of alternative regimes. This paper resolves each of these issues, with the following conclusions: A consistent-conjectures equilibrium exists in the private provision of public goods. It is the monopolistic-conjectures equilibrium. Agents act identically, contributing positive amounts of the public good in an efficient allocation of resources. There is complete matching of contributions among agents, no free-riding, and the allocation is independent of the number of members within the community. Thus the Olson conjecture—that inefficiency is exacerbated by community size—has no foundation in a consistent-conjectures, cumulative-externality, context (212 words).

O mercado doméstico de transporte aéreo de passageiros: modelo de escolha de capacidade empregada em função da ação do regulador e da estrutura da indústria

O presente tabalho apresenta um modelo destinado à análise do mercado doméstico de transporte aéreo de passageiros. O modelo analisado permite acompanhar as escolhas ótimas das companhias aéreas quanto ao número de vôos ofertados e passageiros transportados diante das alterações no valor das tarifas promovidas pelo reguldor, tanto em equilibrio competitvo quanto monopolista e, alternativamente, caso a indústria atue como um oligopólio. Neste último caso, o modelo analisado permite que o equilíbrio da indústria seja mensurado em conjunto com parâmetros conjecturais de comportamento das firmas.

Numerical study on viscoelastic behavior of polypropylene fiber reinforced concrete subjected to temperature variations using LDPM theory

This thesis is focused on the viscoelastic behavior of macro-synthetic fiber-reinforced concrete (MSFRC) with polypropylene studied numerically when subjected to temperature variations (-30 oC to +60 oC). LDPM (lattice discrete particle model), a meso-scale model for heterogeneous composites, is used. To reproduce the MSFRC structural behavior, an extended version of LDPM that includes fiber effects through fiber-concrete interface micromechanics, called LDPM-F, is applied. Model calibration is performed based on three-point bending, cube, and cylinder test for plain concrete and MSFRC. This is followed by a comprehensive literature study on the variation of mechanical properties with temperature for individual fibers and plain concrete. This literature study and past experimental test results constitute inputs for final numerical simulations. The numerical response of MSFRC three-point bending test is replicated and compared with the previously conducted experimental test results; finally, the conclusions were drawn. LDPM numerical model is successfully calibrated using experimental responses on plain concrete. Fiber-concrete interface micro-mechanical parameters are subsequently fixed and LDPM-F models are calibrated based on MSFRC three-point bending test at room temperature. Number of fibers contributing crack bridging mechanism is computed and found to be in good agreement with experimental counts. Temperature variations model for individual constituents of MSFRC, fibers and plain concrete, are implemented in LDPM-F. The model is validated for MSFRC three-point bending stress-CMOD (crack mouth opening) response reproduced at -30 oC, -15 oC, 0 oC, +20 oC, +40 oC and +60 oC. It is found that the model can well describe the temperature variation behavior of MSFRC. At positive temperatures, simulated responses are in good agreement. Slight disagreement in negative regimes suggests an in-depth study on fiber-matrix interface bond behavior with varying temperatures.

Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator : why firms do not increase prices?

Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methods are being increasingly used to analyze the impact of mergers on pricing and other market equilibrium outcomes. Using evidence from an exogenous merger between two retail gasoline companies in a specific market in Spain, this paper shows how concentration did not lead to a price increase. In fact, the conjectural variation model concludes that the existence of a collusive agreement before and after the merger accounts for this result, rather than the existence of efficient gains. This result may explain empirical evidence reported in the literature according to which mergers between firms do not have significant effects on prices.

The Degree of Competition in the Thai Banking Industry before and after the East Asian Crisis

This paper analyzes the influence of the East Asian crisis and the subsequent reforms on the oligopolistic nature of the Thai banking industry. Since the crisis, there have been substantial changes in competitive environment, including a decline in the family ownership of banks as well as the arrival of new entrants. How did these changes affect a banking industry in which the six largest local banks accounted for over 70 percent of market share? The estimated Lerner index from Bresnahan's [1989] conjectural variation model indicates the possibility of a decline in the degree of competition.

Rivalidad en el mercado español de depósitos bancarios: la teoría de los grupos estratégicos

El objetivo de este trabajo consiste en examinar la rivalidad intra y entre grupos estratégicos de una industria. La literatura sobre la materia sugiere que las evidencias empíricas detectadas pueden verse afectadas por problemas operativos relacionados con la medición de la rivalidad. Como novedad, la metodología aplicada propone la utilización de dos enfoques de medición de la rivalidad, uno indirecto mediante la estimación de la variación conjetural, y una evaluación directa a través de las noticias sobre acciones y reacciones estratégicas detectadas en las publicaciones. La aplicación empírica realizada en el mercado español de depósitos bancarios no permite asegurar nada acerca de la mayor o menor rivalidad intra que entre grupos; pero los grupos estratégicos permiten predecir la forma en que cada entidad compite con las demás.

Simulated variations in atmospheric CO2 over a Wisconsin forest using a coupled ecosystem-atmosphere model

Ecosystem fluxes of energy, water, and CO2 result in spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric properties. In principle, these variations can be used to quantify the fluxes through inverse modelling of atmospheric transport, and can improve the understanding of processes and falsifiability of models. We investigated the influence of ecosystem fluxes on atmospheric CO2 in the vicinity of the WLEF-TV tower in Wisconsin using an ecophysiological model (Simple Biosphere, SiB2) coupled to an atmospheric model (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System). Model parameters were specified from satellite imagery and soil texture data. In a companion paper, simulated fluxes in the immediate tower vicinity have been compared to eddy covariance fluxes measured at the tower, with meteorology specified from tower sensors. Results were encouraging with respect to the ability of the model to capture observed diurnal cycles of fluxes. Here, the effects of fluxes in the tower footprint were also investigated by coupling SiB2 to a high-resolution atmospheric simulation, so that the model physiology could affect the meteorological environment. These experiments were successful in reproducing observed fluxes and concentration gradients during the day and at night, but revealed problems during transitions at sunrise and sunset that appear to be related to the canopy radiation parameterization in SiB2.

Sequential variations of phytoplankton growth and mortality in an NPZ model: a remote-sensing-based assessment

Radiometric data in the visible domain acquired by satellite remote sensing have proven to be powerful for monitoring the states of the ocean, both physical and biological. With the help of these data it is possible to understand certain variations in biological responses of marine phytoplankton on ecological time scales. Here, we implement a sequential data-assimilation technique to estimate from a conventional nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton (NPZ) model the time variations of observed and unobserved variables. In addition, we estimate the time evolution of two biological parameters, namely, the specific growth rate and specific mortality of phytoplankton. Our study demonstrates that: (i) the series of time-varying estimates of specific growth rate obtained by sequential data assimilation improves the fitting of the NPZ model to the satellite-derived time series: the model trajectories are closer to the observations than those obtained by implementing static values of the parameter; (ii) the estimates of unobserved variables, i.e., nutrient and zooplankton, obtained from an NPZ model by implementation of a pre-defined parameter evolution can be different from those obtained on applying the sequences of parameters estimated by assimilation; and (iii) the maximum estimated specific growth rate of phytoplankton in the study area is more sensitive to the sea-surface temperature than would be predicted by temperature-dependent functions reported previously. The overall results of the study are potentially useful for enhancing our understanding of the biological response of phytoplankton in a changing environment.

Effect of pH variations in a cycling model on the properties of restorative materials

This study evaluated the effect of cycling various pH demineralizing solutions on the surface hardness, fluoride release and surface properties of restorative materials (Ketac-Fil Plus, Vitremer, Fuji II LC, Freedom and Fluorofil). Thirty specimens of each material were made and the surface hardness measured. The specimens were randomized into five groups according to the pH (4.3; 4.6; 5.0; 5.5 and 6.2) of the demineralizing solution. The specimens were submitted to pH-cycling for 15 days. The specimens remained in the demineralizing solution for six hours and in the remineralizing solution for 18 hours. Then, the surface hardness (SH) was remeasured and the surface properties were assessed. Fluoride release was determined daily. Data from SH and the percentage of alteration in surface hardness were analyzed by analysis of variance (p < 0.05); the Kruskal-Wallis test was performed for the fluoride release results. When hardness was compared, the variation in pH led to a positive correlation for glass ionomer cements and a negative correlation for fluoride release. For polyacid-modified resin composites, a negative correlation was found with regards to fluoride release; no significant correlation was observed for hardness. Surface properties were influenced: an acidic pH led to a greater alteration, except for polyacid-modified resin composites. The pH of the demineralizing solution influenced fluoride release from the tested materials. The pH variation altered hardness and surface properties of glass ionomer cements but did not influence polyacid-modified resin composites.

Sperm head morphometry in ejaculates of adult marmosets (Callithrix jacchus): a model for studying sperm subpopulations and among-donor variations

In humans and other mammals, sperm morphology has been considered one of the most important predictive parameters of fertility. The objective was to determine the presence and distribution of sperm head morphometric subpopulations in a nonhuman primate model (Callithrix jacchus), using an objective computer analysis system and principal component analysis (PCA) methods to establish the relationship between the subpopulation distribution observed and among-donor variation. The PCA method revealed a stable number of principal components in all donors studied, that represented more than 85% of the cumulative variance in all cases. After cluster analysis, a variable number (from three to seven) sperm morphometric subpopulations were identified with defined sperm dimensions and shapes. There were differences in the distribution of the sperm morphometric subpopulations (P < 0.001) in all ejaculates among the four donors analyzed. In conclusion, in this study, computerized sperm analysis methods combined with PCA cluster analyses were useful to identify, classify, and characterize various head sperm morphometric subpopulations in nonhuman primates, yielding considerable biological information. In addition, because all individuals were kept in the same conditions, differences in the distribution of these subpopulations were not attributed to external or management factors. Finally, the substantial information derived from subpopulation analyses provided new and relevant biological knowledge which may have a practical use for future studies in human and nonhuman primate ejaculates, including identifying individuals more suitable for assisted reproductive technologies. (c) 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.