Using Turning Point to create zapper questions that assess confidence levels in the answers given

This 5-minute video describes how you can assess how confident your students were with their answer choices so you can adapt your teaching appropriately.

Bootstrap confidence levels for phylogenetic trees

Evolutionary trees are often estimated from DNA or RNA sequence data. How much confidence should we have in the estimated trees? In 1985, Felsenstein [Felsenstein, J. (1985) Evolution 39, 783–791] suggested the use of the bootstrap to answer this question. Felsenstein’s method, which in concept is a straightforward application of the bootstrap, is widely used, but has been criticized as biased in the genetics literature. This paper concerns the use of the bootstrap in the tree problem. We show that Felsenstein’s method is not biased, but that it can be corrected to better agree with standard ideas of confidence levels and hypothesis testing. These corrections can be made by using the more elaborate bootstrap method presented here, at the expense of considerably more computation.

Bootstrap confidence levels for phylogenetic trees.

Evolutionary trees are often estimated from DNA or RNA sequence data. How much confidence should we have in the estimated trees? In 1985, Felsenstein [Felsenstein, J. (1985) Evolution 39, 783-791] suggested the use of the bootstrap to answer this question. Felsenstein's method, which in concept is a straightforward application of the bootstrap, is widely used, but has been criticized as biased in the genetics literature. This paper concerns the use of the bootstrap in the tree problem. We show that Felsenstein's method is not biased, but that it can be corrected to better agree with standard ideas of confidence levels and hypothesis testing. These corrections can be made by using the more elaborate bootstrap method presented here, at the expense of considerably more computation.

Confidence to cook vegetables and the buying habits of Australian households

Cooking skills are emphasized in nutrition promotion but their distribution among population subgroups and relationship to dietary behavior is researched by few population-based studies. This study examined the relationships between confidence to cook, sociodemographic characteristics, and household vegetable purchasing. This cross-sectional study of 426 randomly selected households in Brisbane, Australia, used a validated questionnaire to assess household vegetable purchasing habits and the confidence to cook of the person who most often prepares food for these households. The mutually adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of lacking confidence to cook were assessed across a range of demographic subgroups using multiple logistic regression models. Similarly, mutually adjusted mean vegetable purchasing scores were calculated using multiple linear regression for different population groups and for respondents with varying confidence levels. Lacking confidence to cook using a variety of techniques was more common among respondents with less education (OR 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01 to 10.75) and was less common among respondents who lived with minors (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.53) and other adults (OR 0.43; 95% CI 0.24 to 0.78). Lack of confidence to prepare vegetables was associated with being male (OR 2.25; 95% CI 1.24 to 4.08), low education (OR 6.60; 95% CI 2.08 to 20.91), lower household income (OR 2.98; 95% CI 1.02 to 8.72) and living with other adults (OR 0.53; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.98). Households bought a greater variety of vegetables on a regular basis when the main chef was confident to prepare them (difference: 18.60; 95% CI 14.66 to 22.54), older (difference: 8.69; 95% CI 4.92 to 12.47), lived with at least one other adult (difference: 5.47; 95% CI 2.82 to 8.12) or at least one minor (difference: 2.86; 95% CI 0.17 to 5.55). Cooking skills may contribute to socioeconomic dietary differences, and may be a useful strategy for promoting fruit and vegetable consumption, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.

Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

A Rasch analysis of the teachers music confidence scale

This article presents a new measure of teachers’ confidence to conduct musical activities with young children; Teachers Music Confidence Scale (TMCS). The TMCS was developed using a sample of 284 in-service and pre-service early childhood teachers in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The TMCS consisted of 10 musical activities. Teachers rated their confidence levels to conduct each activity on a scale from 1 (Not confident at all) to 5 (Very confident). An exploratory factor analysis retained a 10-item single factor that was replicated using confirmatory factor analysis procedures. All items of the TMCS fitted the Rasch model adequately. In-service teachers showed higher confidence levels to conduct several musical activities with young children than pre-service teachers. Implications of these findings for measuring teachers’ confidence to conduct musical activities with young children were discussed.

Family day care educators’ knowledge, confidence and skills in promoting children’s social and emotional wellbeing: baseline data from Thrive

THIS PAPER PRESENTS BASELINE data from Thrive, a capacity-building program for family day care educators. Educators completed a self-report survey assessing knowledge and confidence in promoting children’s social and emotional wellbeing. An in-home observation was used to assess care quality. Twenty-four educators responded to the survey (40 per cent response rate). They had an average of nine years’ experience and 82 percent held childcare qualifications. Educators reported knowledge of, on average, three early signs of social and emotional problems in children, three risk factors and two protective factors. Using a scale from 0-10, mean educator confidence levels ranged from an average of 6.69 to 7.25. Quality of care ratings were moderate. Although educators had a good understanding of children’s social and emotional wellbeing, the study identified opportunities for significant changes in the quality of the educators’ interactions with children in their care and their professional development.

Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Confidence in Communication: Can My Whole Class Achieve This?

In this action research study of my classroom of Algebra 2 students, I investigated the confidence levels and communication skills of these students. I discovered that students who have higher confidence levels are comfortable in their classroom situations. The students with increased levels of confidence also have more open communication with those they respect. As a result of this research, I plan to continue with the implementation of communication skills. I will also look to next school year as a place to start executing a plan to be more available and involved in the active learning process of my students.

The effect of pre-clinical fieldwork subject on the confidence and professional skills of undergraduate occupational therapy students

Objectives: This study investigated the effect of a pre-clinical fieldwork subject on the confidence and professional skills of undergraduate occupational therapy students during their first full-time clinical fieldwork placement. Methods: Participants were 31 third year students enrolled in the pre-clinical fieldwork subject (experimental group), and 25 students not enrolled in the subject (control group). Both quantitative and qualitative methodologies were employed to address the research question. Student anxiety levels were measured using the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and compared at three different intervals - prior to commencing the university semester, prior to commencing full-time practical placement, and following this full-time placement. Individual interviews were conducted with six students (three from the experimental group, three from the control group) to explore their perceptions regarding confidence levels and skill proficiencies during full-time placement. At each data analysis interval, responses for both groups were compared using independent samples t-tests. Responses were compared over time using analysis of variance (ANOVA). The qualitative data were subjected to thematic and content analysis. Results and Conclusions: In general, student anxiety levels did not differ between the experimental and control groups over time. However, qualitative results suggest that students who were enrolled in the pre-clinical subject have greater confidence and competence with occupational therapy skills, and have heightened awareness of the expectations on full-time placement.

Classifier PGN: Classification with High Confidence Rules

ACM Computing Classification System (1998): H.2.8, H.3.3.

Effect of geometry on the melting rates of iron rods burning in high pressure oxygen

The effect of sample geometry on the melting rates of burning iron rods was assessed. Promoted-ignition tests were conducted with rods having cylindrical, rectangular, and triangular cross-sectional shapes over a range of cross-sectional areas. The regression rate of the melting interface (RRMI) was assessed using a statistical approach which enabled the quantification of confidence levels for the observed differences in RRMI. Statistically significant differences in RRMI were observed for rods with the same cross-sectional area but different cross-sectional shape. The magnitude of the proportional difference in RRMI increased with the cross-sectional area. Triangular rods had the highest RRMI, followed by rectangular rods, and then cylindrical rods. The dependence of RRMI on rod shape is shown to relate to the action of molten metal at corners. The corners of the rectangular and triangular rods melted faster than the faces due to their locally higher surface area to volume ratios. This phenomenon altered the attachment geometry between liquid and solid phases, increasing the surface area available for heat transfer, causing faster melting. Findings relating to the application of standard flammability test results in industrial situations are also presented.

A six-year descriptive analysis of hospitalisations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions among people born in refugee-source countries

Background: Hospitalisation for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSHs) has become a recognised tool to measure access to primary care. Timely and effective outpatient care is highly relevant to refugee populations given the past exposure to torture and trauma, and poor access to adequate health care in their countries of origin and during flight. Little is known about ACSHs among resettled refugee populations. With the aim of examining the hypothesis that people from refugee backgrounds have higher ACSHs than people born in the country of hospitalisation, this study analysed a six-year state-wide hospital discharge dataset to estimate ACSH rates for residents born in refugee-source countries and compared them with the Australia-born population. Methods: Hospital discharge data between 1 July 1998 and 30 June 2004 from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset were used to assess ACSH rates among residents born in eight refugee-source countries, and compare them with the Australia-born average. Rate ratios and 95% confidence levels were used to illustrate these comparisons. Four categories of ambulatory care sensitive conditions were measured: total, acute, chronic and vaccine-preventable. Country of birth was used as a proxy indicator of refugee status. Results: When compared with the Australia-born population, hospitalisations for total and acute ambulatory care sensitive conditions were lower among refugee-born persons over the six-year period. Chronic and vaccine-preventable ACSHs were largely similar between the two population groups. Conclusion: Contrary to our hypothesis, preventable hospitalisation rates among people born in refugee-source countries were no higher than Australia-born population averages. More research is needed to elucidate whether low rates of preventable hospitalisation indicate better health status, appropriate health habits, timely and effective care-seeking behaviour and outpatient care, or overall low levels of health care-seeking due to other more pressing needs during the initial period of resettlement. It is important to unpack dimensions of health status and health care access in refugee populations through ad-hoc surveys as the refugee population is not a homogenous group despite sharing a common experience of forced displacement and violence-related trauma.

Predictors of physical and mental health-related quality of life outcomes among myocardial infarction patients

Background Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is an important outcome for patients diagnosed with coronary heart disease. This report describes predictors of physical and mental HRQoL at six months post-hospitalisation for myocardial infarction. Methods Participants were myocardial infarction patients (n=430) admitted to two tertiary referral centres in Brisbane, Australia who completed a six month coronary heart disease secondary prevention trial (ProActive Heart). Outcome variables were HRQoL (Short Form-36) at six months, including a physical and mental summary score. Baseline predictors included demographics and clinical variables, health behaviours, and psychosocial variables. Stepwise forward multiple linear regression analyses were used to identify significant independent predictors of six month HRQoL. Results Physical HRQoL was lower in participants who: were older (p<0.001); were unemployed (p=0.03); had lower baseline physical and mental HRQoL scores (p<0.001); had lower confidence levels in meeting sufficient physical activity recommendations (p<0.001); had no intention to be physically active in the next six months (p<0.001); and were more sedentary (p=0.001). Mental HRQoL was lower in participants who: were younger (p=0.01); had lower baseline mental HRQoL (p<0.001); were more sedentary (p=0.01) were depressed (p<0.001); and had lower social support (p=0.001). Conclusions This study has clinical implications as identification of indicators of lower physical and mental HRQoL outcomes for myocardial infarction patients allows for targeted counselling or coronary heart disease secondary prevention efforts. Trial registration Australian Clinical Trials Registry, Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, CTRN12607000595415. Keywords: Myocardial infarction; Secondary prevention; Cardiac rehabilitation; Telephone-delivered; Health-related quality of life; Health coaching; Tele-health

Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.