Confidence Bands for Convex Median Curves using Sign-Tests

Suppose that one observes pairs (x1,Y1), (x2,Y2), ..., (xn,Yn), where x1 < x2 < ... < xn are fixed numbers while Y1, Y2, ..., Yn are independent random variables with unknown distributions. The only assumption is that Median(Yi) = f(xi) for some unknown convex or concave function f. We present a confidence band for this regression function f using suitable multiscale sign tests. While the exact computation of this band seems to require O(n4) steps, good approximations can be obtained in O(n2) steps. In addition the confidence band is shown to have desirable asymptotic properties as the sample size n tends to infinity.

Flux comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian estimates of Agulhas leakage: A case study using a numerical model

Estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage, the volume flux of water from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, is difficult because of the presence of other circulation systems in the Agulhas region. Indian Ocean water in the Atlantic Ocean is vigorously mixed and diluted in the Cape Basin. Eulerian integration methods, where the velocity field perpendicular to a section is integrated to yield a flux, have to be calibrated so that only the flux by Agulhas leakage is sampled. Two Eulerian methods for estimating the magnitude of Agulhas leakage are tested within a high-resolution two-way nested model with the goal to devise a mooring-based measurement strategy. At the GoodHope line, a section halfway through the Cape Basin, the integrated velocity perpendicular to that line is compared to the magnitude of Agulhas leakage as determined from the transport carried by numerical Lagrangian floats. In the first method, integration is limited to the flux of water warmer and more saline than specific threshold values. These threshold values are determined by maximizing the correlation with the float-determined time series. By using the threshold values, approximately half of the leakage can directly be measured. The total amount of Agulhas leakage can be estimated using a linear regression, within a 90% confidence band of 12 Sv. In the second method, a subregion of the GoodHope line is sought so that integration over that subregion yields an Eulerian flux as close to the float-determined leakage as possible. It appears that when integration is limited within the model to the upper 300 m of the water column within 900 km of the African coast the time series have the smallest root-mean-square difference. This method yields a root-mean-square error of only 5.2 Sv but the 90% confidence band of the estimate is 20 Sv. It is concluded that the optimum thermohaline threshold method leads to more accurate estimates even though the directly measured transport is a factor of two lower than the actual magnitude of Agulhas leakage in this model.

Narrow-band ultraviolet B treatment boosts serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D in patients with psoriasis on oral vitamin D supplementation

A course of treatment with narrow-band ultraviolet B (NB-UVB) improves psoriasis and increases serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D). In this study 12 patients with psoriasis who were supplemented with oral cholecalciferol, 20 µg daily, were given a course of NB-UVB and their response measured. At baseline, serum 25(OH)D was 74.14 ± 22.9 nmol/l. At the 9th exposure to NB-UVB 25(OH)D had increased by 13.2 nmol/l (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 7.2–18.4) and at the 18th exposure by 49.4 nmol/l (95% CI 35.9–64.6) above baseline. Psoriasis Area Severity Index score improved from 8.7 ± 3.5 to 4.5 ± 2.0 (p < 0.001). At baseline, psoriasis lesions showed low vitamin D metabolizing enzyme (CYP27A1, CYP27B1) and high human β-defensin-2 mRNA expression levels compared with those of the healthy subjects. In conclusion, NB-UVB treatment significantly increases serum 25(OH)D in patients with psoriasis who are taking oral vitamin D supplementation, and the concentrations remain far from the toxicity level. Healing psoriasis lesions show similar mRNA expression of vitamin D metabolizing enzymes, but higher antimicrobial peptide levels than NB-UVB-treated skin in healthy subjects.

Improved information about the vertical location and extent of monolayer clouds from POLDER3 measurements in the oxygen A-band

This paper describes new advances in the exploitation of oxygen A-band measurements from POLDER3 sensor onboard PARASOL, satellite platform within the A-Train. These developments result from not only an account of the dependence of POLDER oxygen parameters to cloud optical thickness τ and to the scene's geometrical conditions but also, and more importantly, from the finer understanding of the sensitivity of these parameters to cloud vertical extent. This sensitivity is made possible thanks to the multidirectional character of POLDER measurements. In the case of monolayer clouds that represent most of cloudy conditions, new oxygen parameters are obtained and calibrated from POLDER3 data colocalized with the measurements of the two active sensors of the A-Train: CALIOP/CALIPSO and CPR/CloudSat. From a parameterization that is (μs, τ) dependent, with μs the cosine of the solar zenith angle, a cloud top oxygen pressure (CTOP) and a cloud middle oxygen pressure (CMOP) are obtained, which are estimates of actual cloud top and middle pressures (CTP and CMP). Performances of CTOP and CMOP are presented by class of clouds following the ISCCP classification. In 2008, the coefficient of the correlation between CMOP and CMP is 0.81 for cirrostratus, 0.79 for stratocumulus, 0.75 for deep convective clouds. The coefficient of the correlation between CTOP and CTP is 0.75, 0.73, and 0.79 for the same cloud types. The score obtained by CTOP, defined as the confidence in the retrieval for a particular range of inferred value and for a given error, is higher than the one of MODIS CTP estimate. Scores of CTOP are the highest for bin value of CTP superior in numbers. For liquid (ice) clouds and an error of 30 hPa (50 hPa), the score of CTOP reaches 50% (70%). From the difference between CTOP and CMOP, a first estimate of the cloud vertical extent h is possible. A second estimate of h comes from the correlation between the angular standard deviation of POLDER oxygen pressure σPO2 and the cloud vertical extent. This correlation is studied in detail in the case of liquid clouds. It is shown to be spatially and temporally robust, except for clouds above land during winter months. The analysis of the correlation's dependence on the scene's characteristics leads to a parameterization providing h from σPO2. For liquid water clouds above ocean in 2008, the mean difference between the actual cloud vertical extent and the one retrieved from σPO2 (from the pressure difference) is 5 m (−12 m). The standard deviation of the mean difference is close to 1000 m for the two methods. POLDER estimates of the cloud geometrical thickness obtain a global score of 50% confidence for a relative error of 20% (40%) of the estimate for ice (liquid) clouds over ocean. These results need to be validated outside of the CALIPSO/CloudSat track.

Narrow-band search of continuous gravitational-wave signals from Crab and Vela pulsars in Virgo VSR4 data

In this paper we present the results of a coherent narrow-band search for continuous gravitational-wave signals from the Crab and Vela pulsars conducted on Virgo VSR4 data. In order to take into account a possible small mismatch between the gravitational-wave frequency and two times the star rotation frequency, inferred from measurement of the electromagnetic pulse rate, a range of 0.02 Hz around two times the star rotational frequency has been searched for both the pulsars. No evidence for a signal has been found and 95% confidence level upper limits have been computed assuming both that polarization parameters are completely unknown and that they are known with some uncertainty, as derived from x-ray observations of the pulsar wind torii. For Vela the upper limits are comparable to the spin-down limit, computed assuming that all the observed spin-down is due to the emission of gravitational waves. For Crab the upper limits are about a factor of 2 below the spin-down limit, and represent a significant improvement with respect to past analysis. This is the first time the spin-down limit is significantly overcome in a narrow-band search.

ICT integration and teachers' confidence in using ICT for teaching and learning in Queensland state schools

Information and communication technology (ICT) curriculum integration is the apparent goal of an extensive array of educational initiatives in all Australian states and territories. However, ICT curriculum integration is neither value neutral nor universally understood. The literature indicates the complexity of rationales and terminology that underwrite various initiatives; various dimensions and stages of integration; inherent methodological difficulties; obstacles to integration; and significant issues relating to teacher professional development and ICT competencies (Jamieson-Proctor, Watson, & Finger, 2003). This paper investigates the overarching question: Are ICT integration initiatives making a significant impact on teaching and learning in Queensland state schools? It reports the results from a teacher survey that measures the quantity and quality of student use of ICT. Results from 929 teachers across all year levels and from 38 Queensland state schools indicate that female teachers (73% of the full time teachers in Queensland state schools in 2005) are significantly less confident than their male counterparts in using ICT with students for teaching and learning, and there is evidence of significant resistance to using ICT to align curriculum with new times and new technologies. This result supports the hypothesis that current initiatives with ICT are having uneven and less than the desired results system wide. These results require further urgent investigation in order to address the factors that currently constrain the use of ICT for teaching and learning.

DesignWorld : a tool for team collaboration in high band virtual environments

Current software tools for documenting and developing models of buildings focus on supporting a single user who is a specialist in the specific software used within their own discipline. Extensions to these tools for use by teams maintain the single discipline view and focus on version and file management. There is a perceived need in industry to have tools that specifically support collaboration among individuals from multiple disciplines with both a graphical representation of the design and a persistent data model. This project involves the development of a prototype of such a software tool. We have identified multi-user 3D virtual worlds as an appropriate software base for the development of a collaborative design tool. These worlds are inherently multi-user and therefore directly support collaboration through a sense of awareness of others in the virtual world, their location within the world, and provide various channels for direct and indirect communication. Such software platforms also provide a 3D building and modelling environment that can be adapted to the needs of the building and construction industry. DesignWorld is a prototype system for collaborative design developed by augmenting the Second Life (SL) commercial software platform1 with a collection web-based tools for communication and design. Agents manage communication between the 3D virtual world and the web-based tools. In addition, agents maintain a persistent external model of designs in the 3D world which can be augmented with data such as relationships, disciplines and versions not usually associated with 3D virtual worlds but required in design scenarios.

Cross-cultural differences in self-reported decision-making style and confidence

The Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, Burnett, Radford, & Ford, 1997) measures selfreported decision-making coping patterns. The questionnaire was administered to samples of University students in the US (N = 475), Australia (N = 262), New Zealand (N = 260), Japan (N = 359), Hong Kong (N = 281), and Taiwan (N = 414). As predicted, students from the three Western, individualistic cultures (US, Australia, and New Zealand) were more con® dent of their decision-making ability than students from the three East Asian, group-oriented cultures (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan). No cross-cultural differences were found in scores on decision vigilance (a careful decision-making style). However, compared with Western students, the Asian students tended to score higher on buck-passing and procrastination (avoidant styles of decision making) as well as hypervigilance (a panicky style of decision making). Japanese students scored lowest on decision self-esteem and highest on procrastination and hypervigilance. It was argued that the con¯ ict model and its attendant coping patterns is relevant for describing and comparing decision making in both Western and Asian cultures.