955 resultados para Confidence Residual


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2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60E10, 62G15, 62M20

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The present, paper deals with the CAE-based study Of impact of jacketed projectiles on single- and multi-layered metal armour plates using LS-DYNA. The validation of finite element modelling procedure is mainly based on the mesh convergence study using both shell and solid elements for representing single-layered mild steel target plates. It, is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and the strain rate-dependent material properties are essential for all accurate prediction of projectile residual velocity. The modelling requirements are initially arrived at by correlating against test residual velocities for single-layered mild steel plates of different depths at impact velocities in the ran.-c of approximately 800-870 m/s. The efficacy of correlation is adjudged, in terms of a 'correlation index', defined in the paper: for which values close to unity are desirable. The experience gained for single-layered plates is next; used in simulating projectile impacts on multi-layered mild steel target plates and once again a high degree of correlation with experimental residual velocities is observed. The study is repeated for single- and multi-layered aluminium target plates with a similar level of success in test residual velocity prediction. TO the authors' best knowledge, the present comprehensive study shows in particular for the first time that, with a. proper modelling approach, LS-DYNA can be used with a great degree of confidence in designing perforation-resistant single and multi-layered metallic armour plates.

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This paper deals with the simulation-driven study of the impact of hardened steel projectiles on thin aluminium target plates using explicit finite element analysis as implemented in LS-DYNA. The evaluation of finite element modelling includes a comprehensive mesh convergence study using shell elements for representing target plates and the solid element-based representation of ogivalnosed projectiles. A user-friendly automatic contact detection algorithm is used for capturing interaction between the projectile and the target plate. It is shown that the proper choice of mesh density and strain rate-dependent material properties is crucial as these parameters significantly affect the computed residual velocity. The efficacy of correlation with experimental data is adjudged in terms of a 'correlation index' defined in the present study for which values close to unity are desirable.By simulating laboratory impact tests on thin aluminium plates carried out by earlier investigators, extremely good prediction of experimental ballistic limits has been observed with correlation indices approaching unity. Additional simulation-based parametric studies have been carried out and results consistent with test data have been obtained. The simulation procedures followed in the present study can be applied with confidence in designing thin aluminium armour plates for protection against low calibre projectiles.

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Indoor residual spraying (IRS) has become an increasingly popular method of insecticide use for malaria control, and many recent studies have reported on its effectiveness in reducing malaria burden in a single community or region. There is a need for systematic review and integration of the published literature on IRS and the contextual determining factors of its success in controlling malaria. This study reports the findings of a meta-regression analysis based on 13 published studies, which were chosen from more than 400 articles through a systematic search and selection process. The summary relative risk for reducing malaria prevalence was 0.38 (95% confidence interval = 0.31-0.46), which indicated a risk reduction of 62%. However, an excessive degree of heterogeneity was found between the studies. The meta-regression analysis indicates that IRS is more effective with high initial prevalence, multiple rounds of spraying, use of DDT, and in regions with a combination of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria.

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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BACKGROUND: In Brazil nationally representative donor data are limited on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence, incidence, and residual transfusion risk. The objective of this study was to analyze HIV data obtained over 24 months by the Retrovirus Epidemiology Donor Study-II program in Brazil. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Donations reactive to third-and fourth-generation immunoassays (IAs) were further confirmed by a less-sensitive (LS) IA algorithm and Western blot (WB). Incidence was calculated for first-time (FT) donors using the LS-EIA results and for repeat donors with a model developed to include all donors with a previous negative donation. Residual risk was projected by multiplying composite FT and repeat donor incidence rates by HIV marker-negative infectious window periods. RESULTS: HIV prevalence among FT donors was 92.2/ 105 donations. FT and repeat donor and composite incidences were 38.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 25.651.4), 22.5 (95% CI, 17.6-28.0), and 27.5 (95% CI, 22.0-33.0) per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Male and community donors had higher prevalence and incidence rates than female and replacement donors. The estimated residual risk of HIV transfusion transmission was 11.3 per 106 donations (95% CI, 8.4-14.2), which could be reduced to 4.2 per 106 donations (95% CI, 3.2-5.2) by use of individual-donation nucleic acid testing (NAT). CONCLUSION: The incidence and residual transfusion risk of HIV infection are relatively high in Brazil. Implementation of NAT will not be sufficient to decrease transmission rates to levels seen in the United States or Europe; therefore, other measures focused on decreasing donations by at-risk individuals are also necessary.

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OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess predictors of residual shunts after percutaneous patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure with Amplatzer PFO occluder (AGA Medical Corporation, Golden Valley, MN, USA). METHODS: All percutaneous PFO closures, using Amplatzer PFO occluder performed at a tertiary center between May 2002 and August 2006, were reviewed. Follow-up, including saline contrast transesophageal echocardiography, was performed in all patients 6 months after the intervention. PATIENTS: A total of 135 procedures were performed. Mean age of the patients was 51 years. The indication for PFO closure was an ischemic cerebrovascular event in 92%, paradoxical systemic embolism in 4%, and a diving accident in 4%. Recurrent events prior to PFO closure were noted in 34%. A concomitant atrial septal aneurysm was present in 61%. RESULTS: At 6 months follow-up, a residual shunt was detected in 26 patients (19%). Residual shunts were more common in patients with an atrial septal aneurysm (27 vs. 8%, P= .01) and in patients treated with a 35-mm compared with a 25-mm device (39 vs. 15%, P= .01). A concomitant atrial septal aneurysm remained independently associated with residual shunts when controlled for body mass index, gender, age, atrial dimensions, and presence of a Chiari network (odds ratio 4.1, 95% confidence intervals 1.1-15.0). CONCLUSION: The presence of atrial septal aneurysms in patients undergoing percutaneous PFO closure with an Amplatzer PFO occluder significantly increases the rate of residual shunts at 6 months follow-up, even if 35-mm devices are used.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Treatment with statins reduces the rate of cardiovascular events in high-risk patients, but residual risk persists. At least part of that risk may be attributable to atherogenic dyslipidemia characterized by low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (≤40 mg/dL) and high triglycerides (triglycerides≥150 mg/dL). METHODS We studied subjects with stroke or transient ischemic attack in the Prevention of Cerebrovascular and Cardiovascular Events of Ischemic Origin With Terutroban in Patients With a History of Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (PERFORM; n=19,100) and Stroke Prevention by Aggressive Reduction in Cholesterol Levels (SPARCL; n=4731) trials who were treated with a statin and who had high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides measurements 3 months after randomization (n=10,498 and 2900, respectively). The primary outcome measure for this exploratory analysis was the occurrence of major cardiovascular events (nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or cardiovascular death). We also performed a time-varying analysis to account for all available high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride measurements. RESULTS A total of 10% of subjects in PERFORM and 9% in SPARCL had atherogenic dyslipidemia after ≥3 months on start statin therapy. After a follow-up of 2.3 years (PERFORM) and 4.9 years (SPARCL), a major cardiovascular event occurred in 1123 and 485 patients in the 2 trials, respectively. The risk of major cardiovascular events was higher in subjects with versus those without atherogenic dyslipidemia in both PERFORM (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.63) and SPARCL (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.85). The association was attenuated after multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.48 in PERFORM and hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 0.93-1.65 in SPARCL). Time-varying analysis confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS The presence of atherogenic dyslipidemia was associated with higher residual cardiovascular risk in PERFORM and SPARCL subjects with stroke or transient ischemic attack receiving statin therapy. Specific therapeutic interventions should now be trialed to address this residual risk.

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Residual structure in the denatured state of a protein may contain clues about the early events in folding. We have simulated by molecular dynamics the denatured state of barnase, which has been studied by NMR spectroscopy. An ensemble of 104 structures was generated after 2 ns of unfolding and following for a further 2 ns. The ensemble was heterogeneous, but there was nonrandom, residual structure with persistent interactions. Helical structure in the C-terminal portion of helix α1 (residues 13–17) and in helix α2 as well as a turn and nonnative hydrophobic clustering between β3 and β4 were observed, consistent with NMR data. In addition, there were tertiary contacts between residues in α1 and the C-terminal portion of the β-sheet. The simulated structures allow the rudimentary NMR data to be fleshed out. The consistency between simulation and experiment inspires confidence in the methods. A description of the folding pathway of barnase from the denatured to the native state can be constructed by combining the simulation with experimental data from φ value analysis and NMR.

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Information and communication technology (ICT) curriculum integration is the apparent goal of an extensive array of educational initiatives in all Australian states and territories. However, ICT curriculum integration is neither value neutral nor universally understood. The literature indicates the complexity of rationales and terminology that underwrite various initiatives; various dimensions and stages of integration; inherent methodological difficulties; obstacles to integration; and significant issues relating to teacher professional development and ICT competencies (Jamieson-Proctor, Watson, & Finger, 2003). This paper investigates the overarching question: Are ICT integration initiatives making a significant impact on teaching and learning in Queensland state schools? It reports the results from a teacher survey that measures the quantity and quality of student use of ICT. Results from 929 teachers across all year levels and from 38 Queensland state schools indicate that female teachers (73% of the full time teachers in Queensland state schools in 2005) are significantly less confident than their male counterparts in using ICT with students for teaching and learning, and there is evidence of significant resistance to using ICT to align curriculum with new times and new technologies. This result supports the hypothesis that current initiatives with ICT are having uneven and less than the desired results system wide. These results require further urgent investigation in order to address the factors that currently constrain the use of ICT for teaching and learning.