Conditional Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of a Weibull Distribution

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62F25, 62F03.

Rock fracture mean trace length estimation and confidence interval calculation using maximum likelihood methods

There has been a resurgence of interest in the mean trace length estimator of Pahl for window sampling of traces. The estimator has been dealt with by Mauldon and Zhang and Einstein in recent publications. The estimator is a very useful one in that it is non-parametric. However, despite some discussion regarding the statistical distribution of the estimator, none of the recent works or the original work by Pahl provide a rigorous basis for the determination a confidence interval for the estimator or a confidence region for the estimator and the corresponding estimator of trace spatial intensity in the sampling window. This paper shows, by consideration of a simplified version of the problem but without loss of generality, that the estimator is in fact the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and that it can be considered essentially unbiased. As the MLE, it possesses the least variance of all estimators and confidence intervals or regions should therefore be available through application of classical ML theory. It is shown that valid confidence intervals can in fact be determined. The results of the work and the calculations of the confidence intervals are illustrated by example. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship between prepulse inhibition and perceived intensity of the blink-eliciting stimulus: Stimulus intensity and lead interval effects

The hypothesis that prepulse inhibition of the blink reflex reflects a transient process that protects preattentive processing of the prepulse was investigated. Participants were presented with pairs of blink-eliciting noises, with some noises preceded by a prepulse, and were asked to rate the intensity of the second noise relative to the first. Inhibition of blink amplitude was greater for a 110 dB(A) noise than for a 95 dB(A) noise with a 120 ms lead interval, whereas there was no difference with a 30 ms lead interval. The reduction in perceived intensity was greater for the 110 dB(A) noise than for the 95 dB(A) noise with the 120 ms lead interval, but not with the 30 ms lead interval. The parallel results support an association between prepulse inhibition and perceived intensity. However, the prepulse did not reduce intensity ratings relative to control trials in some conditions, suggesting that prepulse inhibition is not always associated with an attenuation of the impact of the blink-eliciting stimulus.

Trends in healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women between 1998 and 2008

OBJECTIVE To analyze conditional and unconditional healthy life expectancy among older Brazilian women.METHODS This cross-sectional study used the intercensal technique to estimate, in the absence of longitudinal data, healthy life expectancy that is conditional and unconditional on the individual’s current health status. The data used were obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (National Household Sample Survey) of 1998, 2003, and 2008. This sample comprised 11,171; 13,694; and 16,259 women aged 65 years or more, respectively. Complete mortality tables from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics for the years 2001 and 2006 were also used. The definition of health status was based on the difficulty in performing activities of daily living.RESULTS The remaining lifetime was strongly dependent on the current health status of the older women. Between 1998 and 2003, the amount of time lived with disability for healthy women at age 65 was 9.8%. This percentage increased to 66.2% when the women already presented some disability at age 65. Temporal analysis showed that the active life expectancy of the women at age 65 increased between 1998-2003 (19.3 years) and 2003-2008 (19.4 years). However, life years gained have been mainly focused on the unhealthy state.CONCLUSIONS Analysis of conditional and unconditional life expectancy indicated that live years gained are a result of the decline of mortality in unhealthy states. This pattern suggests that there has been no reduction in morbidity among older women in Brazil between 1998 and 2008.

Petrol consumption and redistributive effects of its taxation in Spain

The objective of this paper is to estimate a petrol consumption function for Spain and to evaluate the redistributive effects of petrol taxation. We use micro data from the Spanish Household Budget Survey of 1990/91 and model petrol consumption taking into account the effect that income changes may have on car ownership levels, as well as the differences that exist between expenditure and consumption. Our results show the importance that household structure, place of residence and income have on petrol consumption. We are able to compute income elasticities of petrol expenditure, both conditional and unconditional on the level of car ownership. Non-conditional elasticities, while always very close to unit values, are lower for higher income households and for those living in rural areas or small cities. When car ownership levels are taken into account, conditional elasticities are obtained that are around one half the value of the non- conditional ones, being fairly stable across income categories and city sizes. As regards the redistributive effects of petrol taxation, we observe that for the lowest income deciles the share of petrol expenditure increases with income, and thus the tax can be regarded as progressive. However, after a certain income level the tax proves to be regressive.

Human Exposure to Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Prenatal Risk Factors for Cryptorchidism and Hypospadias: A Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND. Exposure to xenoestrogens during pregnancy may disturb the development and function of male sexual organs. OBJECTIVE. In this study we aimed to determine whether the combined effect of environmental estrogens measured as total effective xenoestrogen burden (TEXB) is a risk factor for male urogenital malformations. METHODS. In a case-control study, nested in a mother-child cohort (n = 702) established at Granada University Hospital, we compared 50 newborns with diagnosis of cryptorchidism and/or hypospadias with 114 boys without malformations matched by gestational age, date of birth, and parity. Controls did not differ from the total cohort in confounding variables. TEXB and levels of 16 organochlorine pesticides were measured in placenta tissues. Characteristics of parents, pregnancy, and birth were gathered by questionnaire. We used conditional and unconditional regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS. TEXB from organohalogenated compounds was detectable in 72% and 54% of case and control placentas, respectively. Compared with controls, cases had an OR for detectable versus non-detectable TEXB of 2.82 (95% CI, 1.10-7.24). More pesticides were detected in cases than in controls (9.34 +/- 3.19 vs. 6.97 +/- 3.93). ORs for cases with detectable levels of pesticides, after adjusting for potential confounders in the conditional regression analysis, were o,p'-DDT (OR = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.03-4.89), p,p'-DDT (OR = 2.63; 95% CI, 1.21-5.72), lindane (OR = 3.38; 95% CI, 1.36-8.38), mirex (OR = 2.85; 95% CI, 1.22-6.66), and endosulfan alpha (OR = 2.19; 95% CI, 0.99-4.82). Engagement of mothers in agriculture (OR = 3.47; 95% CI, 1.33-9.03), fathers' occupational exposure to xenoestrogens (OR = 2.98; 95% CI, 1.11-8.01), and history of previous stillbirths (OR = 4.20; 95% CI, 1.11-16.66) were also associated with risk of malformations. CONCLUSIONS We found an increased risk for male urogenital malformations related to the combined effect of environmental estrogens in placenta.

Conditional and syllogistic deductive tasks dissociate functionally during premise integration.

Deduction allows us to draw consequences from previous knowledge. Deductive reasoning can be applied to several types of problem, for example, conditional, syllogistic, and relational. It has been assumed that the same cognitive operations underlie solutions to them all; however, this hypothesis remains to be tested empirically. We used event-related fMRI, in the same group of subjects, to compare reasoning-related activity associated with conditional and syllogistic deductive problems. Furthermore, we assessed reasoning-related activity for the two main stages of deduction, namely encoding of premises and their integration. Encoding syllogistic premises for reasoning was associated with activation of BA 44/45 more than encoding them for literal recall. During integration, left fronto-lateral cortex (BA 44/45, 6) and basal ganglia activated with both conditional and syllogistic reasoning. Besides that, integration of syllogistic problems additionally was associated with activation of left parietal (BA 7) and left ventro-lateral frontal cortex (BA 47). This difference suggests a dissociation between conditional and syllogistic reasoning at the integration stage. Our finding indicates that the integration of conditional and syllogistic reasoning is carried out by means of different, but partly overlapping, sets of anatomical regions and by inference, cognitive processes. The involvement of BA 44/45 during both encoding (syllogisms) and premise integration (syllogisms and conditionals) suggests a central role in deductive reasoning for syntactic manipulations and formal/linguistic representations.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Stereoselective block of hERG channel by (S)-methadone and QT interval prolongation in CYP2B6 slow metabolizers.

Methadone inhibits the cardiac potassium channel hERG and can cause a prolonged QT interval. Methadone is chiral but its therapeutic activity is mainly due to (R)-methadone. Whole-cell patch-clamp experiments using cells expressing hERG showed that (S)-methadone blocked the hERG current 3.5-fold more potently than (R)-methadone (IC50s (half-maximal inhibitory concentrations) at 37 degrees C: 2 and 7 microM). As CYP2B6 slow metabolizer (SM) status results in a reduced ability to metabolize (S)-methadone, electrocardiograms, CYP2B6 genotypes, and (R)- and (S)-methadone plasma concentrations were obtained for 179 patients receiving (R,S)-methadone. The mean heart-rate-corrected QT (QTc) was higher in CYP2B6 SMs (*6/*6 genotype; 439+/-25 ms; n=11) than in extensive metabolizers (non *6/*6; 421+/-25 ms; n=168; P=0.017). CYP2B6 SM status was associated with an increased risk of prolonged QTc (odds ratio=4.5, 95% confidence interval=1.2-17.7; P=0.03). This study reports the first genetic factor implicated in methadone metabolism that may increase the risk of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden death. This risk could be reduced by the administration of (R)-methadone.

Différences induites par la définition des périodes diurnes et nocturnes sur la pression artérielle et le dipping lors d'une mesure ambulatoire de la pression artérielle [Effects of nighttime and daytime interval definition on blood pressure and dipping in patients referred for ambulatory blood pressure measurement].

Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) has become indispensable for the diagnosis and control of hypertension. However, no consensus exists on how daytime and nighttime periods should be defined. OBJECTIVE: To compare daytime and nighttime blood pressure (BP) defined by an actigraph and by body position with BP resulting from arbitrary daytime and nighttime periods. PATIENTS AND METHOD: ABPM, sleeping periods and body position were recorded simultaneously using an actigraph (SenseWear Armband(®)) in patients referred for ABPM. BP results obtained with the actigraph (sleep and position) were compared to the results obtained with fixed daytime (7a.m.-10p.m.) and nighttime (10p.m.-7a.m.) periods. RESULTS: Data from 103 participants were available. More than half of them were taking antihypertensive drugs. Nocturnal BP was lower (systolic BP: 2.08±4.50mmHg; diastolic BP: 1.84±2.99mmHg, P<0.05) and dipping was more marked (systolic BP: 1.54±3.76%; diastolic BP: 2.27±3.48%, P<0.05) when nighttime was defined with the actigraph. Standing BP was higher (systolic BP 1.07±2.81mmHg; diastolic BP: 1.34±2.50mmHg) than daytime BP defined by a fixed period. CONCLUSION: Diurnal BP, nocturnal BP and dipping are influenced by the definition of daytime and nighttime periods. Studies evaluating the prognostic value of each method are needed to clarify which definition should be used.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

Training conditional and cumulative risk judgements: the role of frequencies, problem-structure and Einstellung

Two experiments implement and evaluate a training scheme for learning to apply frequency formats to probability judgements couched in terms of percentages. Results indicate that both conditional and cumulative probability judgements can be improved in this manner, however the scheme is insufficient to promote any deeper understanding of the problem structure. In both experiments, training on one problem type only (either conditional or cumulative risk judgements) resulted in an inappropriate transfer of a learned method at test. The obstacles facing a frequency-based training programme for teaching appropriate use of probability data are discussed. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.