Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims.

Quantifying the relative importance of land cover change from climate and land-use in the representative concentration pathways

Climate change is projected to cause substantial alterations in vegetation distribution, but these have been given little attention in comparison to land-use in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Here we assess the climate-induced land cover changes (CILCC) in the RCPs, and compare them to land-use land cover change (LULCC). To do this, we use an ensemble of simulations with and without LULCC in earth system model HadGEM2-ES for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We find that climate change causes an expansion poleward of vegetation that affects more land area than LULCC in all of the RCPs considered here. The terrestrial carbon changes from CILCC are also larger than for LULCC. When considering only forest, the LULCC is larger, but the CILCC is highly variable with the overall radiative forcing of the scenario. The CILCC forest increase compensates 90% of the global anthropogenic deforestation by 2100 in RCP8.5, but just 3% in RCP2.6. Overall, bigger land cover changes tend to originate from LULCC in the shorter term or lower radiative forcing scenarios, and from CILCC in the longer term and higher radiative forcing scenarios. The extent to which CILCC could compensate for LULCC raises difficult questions regarding global forest and biodiversity offsetting, especially at different timescales. This research shows the importance of considering the relative size of CILCC to LULCC, especially with regard to the ecological effects of the different RCPs.

Site characteristics, sediment geochemistry and pigment concentration of northern Victoria Land lakes

Antarctic ice-free areas contain lakes and ponds that have interesting limnological features and are of wide global significance as early warning indicators of climatic and environmental change. However, most limnological and paleolimnological studies in continental Antarctica are limited to certain regions. There are several ice-free areas in Victoria Land that have not yet been studied well. There is therefore a need to extend limnological studies in space and time to understand how different geological and climatic features affect the composition and biological activity of freshwater communities. With the aim of contributing to a better limnological characterization of Victoria Land, this paper reports data on sedimentary pigments (used to identify the main algal taxa) obtained through a methodology that is more sensitive and selective than that of previous studies. Analyses were extended to 48 water bodies in ice-free areas with differing lithology, latitude, and altitude, and with different morphometry and physical, chemical, and biological characteristics in order to identify environmental factors affecting the distribution and composition of freshwater autotrophic communities. A wider knowledge of lakes in a limnologically important region of Antarctica was obtained. Cyanophyta was found to be the most important algal group, followed by Chlorophyta and Bacillariophyta, whereas latitude and altitude are the main factors affecting pigment distribution.

A new form of land concentration in Colombia

This article aims to show how the Law 1448 of 2011, which explains reparation and restitution of victims, and the National Development Plan (NDP) 2011-2014 generate land concentration in Colombia -- This is due to how the NDP objectives disintegrate the Law 1448 objectives; this phenomenon could be explained using an agency model and the subsequent moral risk issue formed between the State and the victims -- Regarding these results, a game-theory model was built, and this effectively concludes that the Law 1448 and the NDP generate land concentration in Colombia

Neighborhood characteristics and the spatial concentration of crime: Evidence for Bogotá

Using a unique neighborhood crime dataset for Bogotá in 2011, this study uses a spatial econometric approach and examines the role of socioeconomic and agglomeration variables in explaining the variance of crime. It uses two different types of crime, violent crime represented in homicides and property crime represented in residential burglaries. These two types of crime are then measured in non-standard crime statistics that are created as the area incidence for each crime in the neighborhood. The existence of crime hotspots in Bogotá has been shown in most of the literature, and using these non-standard crime statistics at this neighborhood level some hotspots arise again, thus validating the use of a spatial approach for these new crime statistics. The final specification includes socioeconomic, agglomeration, land-use and visual aspect variables that are then included in a SARAR model an estimated by the procedure devised by Kelejian and Prucha (2009). The resulting coefficients and marginal effects show the relevance of these crime hotspots which is similar with most previous studies. However, socioeconomic variables are significant and show the importance of age, and education. Agglomeration variables are significant and thus more densely populated areas are correlated with more crime. Interestingly, both types of crimes do not have the same significant covariates. Education and young male population have a different sign for homicide and residential burglaries. Inequality matters for homicides while higher real estate valuation matters for residential burglaries. Finally, density impacts positively both crimes.

Climatic impacts of land-use change due to crop yield increases and a universal carbon tax from a scenario model*

Future land cover will have a significant impact on climate and is strongly influenced by the extent of agricultural land use. Differing assumptions of crop yield increase and carbon pricing mitigation strategies affect projected expansion of agricultural land in future scenarios. In the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the carbon effects of these land cover changes are included, although the biogeophysical effects are not. The afforestation in RCP4.5 has important biogeophysical impacts on climate, in addition to the land carbon changes, which are directly related to the assumption of crop yield increase and the universal carbon tax. To investigate the biogeophysical climatic impact of combinations of agricultural crop yield increases and carbon pricing mitigation, five scenarios of land-use change based on RCP4.5 are used as inputs to an earth system model [Hadley Centre Global Environment Model, version 2-Earth System (HadGEM2-ES)]. In the scenario with the greatest increase in agricultural land (as a result of no increase in crop yield and no climate mitigation) there is a significant -0.49 K worldwide cooling by 2100 compared to a control scenario with no land-use change. Regional cooling is up to -2.2 K annually in northeastern Asia. Including carbon feedbacks from the land-use change gives a small global cooling of -0.067 K. This work shows that there are significant impacts from biogeophysical land-use changes caused by assumptions of crop yield and carbon mitigation, which mean that land carbon is not the whole story. It also elucidates the potential conflict between cooling from biogeophysical climate effects of land-use change and wider environmental aims.

Influence of land use changes on water chemistry in streams in the State of Sao Paulo, southeast Brazil

Streamwater is affected by several processes in the watershed including anthropogenic activities that result in changes in water quality as well as in the functioning of these stream ecosystems. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate the concentration of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, Cl-, SO42-, PO43-, HCO3-) in streams in the state of Sao Paulo (southeast Brazil). The sampling sites are located at undisturbed (ombrophilus dense forest, semideciduous forest and savanna - cerrado) and disturbed areas (pasture, urbanization and sugar cane crops). Streamwater chemistry varied according to land use change and, in general, was higher in disturbed sites. Streams located in undisturbed sites at Ribeira de Iguape/Alto Paranapanema watershed (streams 1, 2 and 3) seem to be regulated by soil characteristics, as the disturbed streams located at the same watershed covered by pasture (stream 7) showed high concentration for the most of the variables. Exception to streams located at Pontal do Paranapanema watershed where both disturbed (stream 8) and undisturbed streams (stream 4 and 5) presented similar patterns for almost all variables measured.

Influence of land use changes on water chemistry in streams in the State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil

Streamwater is affected by several processes in the watershed including anthropogenic activities that result in changes in water quality as well as in the functioning of these stream ecosystems. Therefore, this work aims to evaluate the concentration of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, NO3-, NO2-, Cl-, SO4(2-), PO4(3-), HCO3-) in streams in the state of São Paulo (southeast Brazil). The sampling sites are located at undisturbed (ombrophilus dense forest, semideciduous forest and savanna - cerrado) and disturbed areas (pasture, urbanization and sugar cane crops). Streamwater chemistry varied according to land use change and, in general, was higher in disturbed sites. Streams located in undisturbed sites at Ribeira de Iguape/Alto Paranapanema watershed (streams 1, 2 and 3) seem to be regulated by soil characteristics, as the disturbed streams located at the same watershed covered by pasture (stream 7) showed high concentration for the most of the variables. Exception to streams located at Pontal do Paranapanema watershed where both disturbed (stream 8) and undisturbed streams (stream 4 and 5) presented similar patterns for almost all variables measured.

Impact of Land-Use Intensity and Productivity on Bryophyte Diversity in Agricultural Grasslands

While bryophytes greatly contribute to plant diversity of semi-natural grasslands, little is known about the relationships between land-use intensity, productivity, and bryophyte diversity in these habitats. We recorded vascular plant and bryophyte vegetation in 85 agricultural used grasslands in two regions in northern and central Germany and gathered information on land-use intensity. To assess grassland productivity, we harvested aboveground vascular plant biomass and analyzed nutrient concentrations of N, P, K, Ca and Mg. Further we calculated mean Ellenberg indicator values of vascular plant vegetation. We tested for effects of land-use intensity and productivity on total bryophyte species richness and on the species richness of acrocarpous (small & erect) and pleurocarpous (creeping, including liverworts) growth forms separately. Bryophyte species were found in almost all studied grasslands, but species richness differed considerably between study regions in northern Germany (2.8 species per 16 m2) and central Germany (6.4 species per 16 m2) due environmental differences as well as land-use history. Increased fertilizer application, coinciding with high mowing frequency, reduced bryophyte species richness significantly. Accordingly, productivity estimates such as plant biomass and nitrogen concentration were strongly negatively related to bryophyte species richness, although productivity decreased only pleurocarpous species. Ellenberg indicator values for nutrients proved to be useful indicators of species richness and productivity. In conclusion, bryophyte composition was strongly dependent on productivity, with smaller bryophytes that were likely negatively affected by greater competition for light. Intensive land-use, however, can also indirectly decrease bryophyte species richness by promoting grassland productivity. Thus, increasing productivity is likely to cause a loss of bryophyte species and a decrease in species diversity.

Large-scale land acquisitions in Peru: Land (re)-concentration, agrarian change and reactions from rural communities

More than 40 years after the agrarian reform, Peru is experiencing a renewed process of concentration of land ownership in the hands of large-scale investors, favoring the development of a sugar cane production cluster along the northern coast. The expansion of the agricultural frontier by means of large irrigation projects – originally developed to benefit medium- and small-scale farmers – is carried out today in order to be sold to large-scale investors for the production of export crops. In the region of Piura the increasing presence of large-scale biofuel investors puts substantial pressure on land and water resources, not only changing the use of and access to land for local communities, but also generating water shortages vis-à-vis the multiple water demands of local food producers. The changes in land relations and the agro-ecosystem, the altering food production regime as well as the increasing proletarization of smallholders, is driving many locals – even those which (initially) welcomed the investment – into resistance activities against the increasing control of land, water and other natural resources in the hands of agribusinesses. The aim of this presentation is to discuss the contemporary political, social and cultural dynamics of agrarian change along the northern Peruvian coast as well as the «reactions from below» emanating from campesino communities, landless laborers, brick producers, pastoralists as well as other marginalized groups. The different strategies, forms and practices of resistance with the goal of the «protection of the territory» shall be explored as well as the reasons for their rather scattered occurrence and the lack of alliances on the land issue. This input shall make a contribution to the on-going debate on individual and communal property rights and the question of what is best in terms of collective defense against land grabbing.

Concentration of organic compounds in aerosols and surface waters of the East Atlantic and Antarctic

The data on content and composition of lipids and aliphatic hydrocarbons (HC) in aerosols and surface waters obtained during the spring-summer periods of 2001 and 2003 along the vessel route from the North Sea to the Antarctic and backwards are presented. It was shown that the distribution of organic compounds is caused by influence of zonal supply of eolian matter from land, anthropogenic, and marine autochtonous sources. Concentrations of organic compounds in the aerosols varied from 0.22 to 13.04 ng/m**3 for lipids and from 0.04 to 7.03 ng/m**3 for aliphatic HC; in surface waters, it from 9 to 84 and from 1 to 53 µg/l, respectively. There is correlation between fluxes of lithogenic fraction of the aerosols, HC, and lipids. Growth of productivity in the aquatic area increases levels of the HC in the surface waters but to a lower degree than HC supply with oil contamination.

(Table 1) Soil density and concentration of 10Beryllium and 26Aluminium in samples from two ash deposits in the McMurdo Dry Valleys

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica (MDV) are among the oldest landscapes on Earth, and some landforms there present an intriguing apparent contradiction such that millions of years old surface deposits maintain their meter-scale morphology despite the fact that measured erosion rates are 0.1-4 m/Ma. We analyzed the concentration of cosmic ray-produced 10Be and 26Al in quartz sands from regolith directly above and below two well-documented ash deposits in the MDV, the Arena Valley ash (40Ar/39Ar age of 4.33 Ma) and the Hart ash (K-Ar age of 3.9 Ma). Measured concentrations of 10Be and 26Al are significantly less than expected given the age of the in situ air fall ashes and are best interpreted as reflecting the degradation rate of the overlying sediments. The erosion rate of the material above the Arena Valley ash that best explains the observed isotope profiles is 3.5 ± 0.41 x 10**-5 g/cm**2/yr (~0.19 m/Ma) for the past ~4 Ma. For the Hart ash, the erosion rate is 4.8 ± 0.21 x 10**-4 g/cm**2/yr (~2.6 m/Ma) for the past ~1 Ma. The concentration profiles do not show signs of mixing, creep, or deflation caused by sublimation of ground ice. These results indicate that the slow, steady lowering of the surface without vertical mixing may allow landforms to maintain their meter-scale morphology even though they are actively eroding.