The reliability of experts' opinions in constructing a composite environmental index: The case of ESI 2005

The complexity of the environment demands a well-constructed composite environmental index (CEI) to provide a useful tool to draw attention to environmental conditions and trends for policy purposes. Among the common difficulties in constructing a proper CEI are uncertainties due to the selection of the most representative underlying variables or indicators. A degree of uncertainty accompanies experts' judgments, and to deal with vague, subjective or inconsistent information, logic other than classic is required. This study analyzes a procedure that uses different experts' opinions in constructing a CEI. with the use of paraconsistent annotated logic. For this, a sensitivity analysis of the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI 2005) was used as an example to assess the reliability of experts' opinions. The uncertainty due to the disagreement in experts' opinions clearly indicates that the forms we presently use to measure and monitor the actual environment are insufficient, that is, there is a lack of a "science of sustainability". (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring firm innovativeness: towards a composite innovation index built on firm innovative posture, propensity and performance attributes. ACES Working Paper No. 12, 2008

The ability to innovate is generally accepted as a critical success factor to growth and future performance of firms. Yet, this acceptance obscures a comprehensive perspective on how firms can influence their innovation capacity and resulting performance. This paper proposes a '3P' construct of innovation measurement that simultaneously considers the Posture, Propensity and Performance related to a firm's innovation capabilities. We propose and provide empirical support showing that robust measurement of the performance implications of innovation requires the consideration of input, throughput and output factors simultaneously. Single or more limited indicators do not offer the degree of fine-tuning to a firm's innovation system that managers require. Thus, we propose the development, and future research into contingent variations, of a Composite Innovation Index (CII). We further demonstrate its use in comparing innovators and allowing managers to design a firm's innovation system.

Participation index : a measure to identify rural transport disadvantage?

This paper develops a composite participation index (PI) to identify patterns of transport disadvantage in space and time. It is operationalised using 157 weekly activity-travel diaries data collected from three case study areas in rural Northern Ireland. A review of activity space and travel behaviour research found that six dimensional indicators of activity spaces were typically used including the number of unique locations visited, distance travelled, area of activity spaces, frequency of activity participation, types of activity participated in, and duration of participation in order to identify transport disadvantage. A combined measure using six individual indices were developed based on the six dimensional indicators of activity spaces, by taking into account the relativity of the measures for weekdays, weekends, and for a week. Factor analyses were conducted to derive weights of these indices to form the PI measure. Multivariate analysis using general linear models of the different indicators/indices identified new patterns of transport disadvantage. The research found that: indicator based measures and index based measures are complement each other; interactions between different factors generated new patterns of transport disadvantage; and that these patterns vary in space and time. The analysis also indicates that the transport needs of different disadvantaged groups are varied.

Farmers' vulnerability to climate variability in Dimapur district of Nagaland, India

Certain parts of the State of Nagaland situated in the northeastern region of India have been experiencing rainfall deficit over the past few years leading to severe drought-like conditions, which is likely to be aggravated under a climate change scenario. The state has already incurred considerable losses in the agricultural sector. Regional vulnerability assessments need to be carried out in order to help policy makers and planners formulate and implement effective drought management strategies. The present study uses an 'index-based approach' to quantify the climate variability-induced vulnerability of farmers in five villages of Dimapur district, Nagaland. Indicators, which are reflective of the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the farmers to drought, were quantified on the basis of primary data generated through household surveys and participatory rural appraisal supplemented by secondary data in order to calculate a composite vulnerability index. The composite vulnerability index of village New Showba was found to be the least, while Zutovi, the highest. The overall results reveal that biophysical characteristics contribute the most to overall vulnerability. Some potential adaptation strategies were also identified based on observations and discussions with the villagers.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite

We present a new composite of geomagnetic activity which is designed to be as homogeneous in its construction as possible. This is done by only combining data that, by virtue of the locations of the source observatories used, have similar responses to solar wind and IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) variations. This will enable us (in Part 2, Lockwood et al., 2013a) to use the new index to reconstruct the interplanetary magnetic field, B, back to 1846 with a full analysis of errors. Allowance is made for the effects of secular change in the geomagnetic field. The composite uses interdiurnal variation data from Helsinki for 1845–1890 (inclusive) and 1893–1896 and from Eskdalemuir from 1911 to the present. The gaps are filled using data from the Potsdam (1891–1892 and 1897–1907) and the nearby Seddin observatories (1908–1910) and intercalibration achieved using the Potsdam–Seddin sequence. The new index is termed IDV(1d) because it employs many of the principles of the IDV index derived by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010), inspired by the u index of Bartels (1932); however, we revert to using one-day (1d) means, as employed by Bartels, because the use of near-midnight values in IDV introduces contamination by the substorm current wedge auroral electrojet, giving noise and a dependence on solar wind speed that varies with latitude. The composite is compared with independent, early data from European-sector stations, Greenwich, St Petersburg, Parc St Maur, and Ekaterinburg, as well as the composite u index, compiled from 2–6 stations by Bartels, and the IDV index of Svalgaard and Cliver. Agreement is found to be extremely good in all cases, except two. Firstly, the Greenwich data are shown to have gradually degraded in quality until new instrumentation was installed in 1915. Secondly, we infer that the Bartels u index is increasingly unreliable before about 1886 and overestimates the solar cycle amplitude between 1872 and 1883 and this is amplified in the proxy data used before 1872. This is therefore also true of the IDV index which makes direct use of the u index values.

Identifying rural disadvantage using a multiday travel diary

This paper identifies transport disadvantage using a 7 day activity-travel diary data from two rural case study areas. A composite participation index (PI) measure was developed for this study based on six indices measuring elements of travel and activity participation. Using the index the paper then goes on to compare these results, with the results obtained from other more traditional indicators used to identify transport disadvantage. These indicators are related to the size of activity space such as unique network distance travelled, number of unique locations visited, activity space area, activity duration, and fullness (shape) of activity spaces. The weaknesses of these indicator based measures are that: firstly, they do not take into account the relativity of the measure between different areas i.e. travel distance in terms of the wider context of available activities within an area; and secondly, these indicators are multi-dimensional and each represents a different qualitative aspect of travel and activity participation. As a result, six individual indices were developed to overcome these problems. These include: participation count index, participation length index, participation area index, participation duration index, participation type index, and participation frequency index. These are then aggregated to assess the relative performance in terms of these different indices and identify the nature of transport disadvantage. GIS was used to visualise individual travel patterns and to derive scores for both the indicator based measures and the index based measures. Factor analysis was conducted to derive weights of the individual indices to form the composite index measure. From this analysis, two intermediate indices were also derived using the underlying factors of the data related to these indices. Using the scores of all these measures, multiple regression analyses were conducted to identify patterns of transport disadvantage.

Climatic-requirements models of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae) to prioritise areas for exploration and release of biological control agents

Climate matching software (CLIMEX) was used to prioritise areas to explore for biological control agents in the native range of cat's claw creeper Macfadyena unguis-cati (Bignoniaceae), and to prioritise areas to release the agents in the introduced ranges of the plant. The native distribution of cat's claw creeper was used to predict the potential range of climatically suitable habitats for cat's claw creeper in its introduced ranges. A Composite Match Index (CMI) of cat's claw creeper was determined with the 'Match Climates' function in order to match the ranges in Australia and South Africa where the plant is introduced with its native range in South and Central America. This information was used to determine which areas might yield climatically-adapted agents. Locations in northern Argentina had CMI values which best matched sites with cat's claw creeper infestations in Australia and South Africa. None of the sites from where three currently prioritised biological control agents for cat's claw creeper were collected had CMI values higher than 0.8. The analysis showed that central and eastern Argentina, south Brazil, Uruguay and parts of Bolivia and Paraguay should be prioritised for exploration for new biological control agents for cat's claw creeper to be used in Australia and South Africa.

Estimation and evaluation of multi-decadal fire severity patterns using Landsat sensors

Retrospective identification of fire severity can improve our understanding of fire behaviour and ecological responses. However, burnt area records for many ecosystems are non-existent or incomplete, and those that are documented rarely include fire severity data. Retrospective analysis using satellite remote sensing data captured over extended periods can provide better estimates of fire history. This study aimed to assess the relationship between the Landsat differenced normalised burn ratio (dNBR) and field measured geometrically structured composite burn index (GeoCBI) for retrospective analysis of fire severity over a 23 year period in sclerophyll woodland and heath ecosystems. Further, we assessed for reduced dNBR fire severity classification accuracies associated with vegetation regrowth at increasing time between ignition and image capture. This was achieved by assessing four Landsat images captured at increasing time since ignition of the most recent burnt area. We found significant linear GeoCBI–dNBR relationships (R2 = 0.81 and 0.71) for data collected across ecosystems and for Eucalyptus racemosa ecosystems, respectively. Non-significant and weak linear relationships were observed for heath and Melaleuca quinquenervia ecosystems, suggesting that GeoCBI–dNBR was not appropriate for fire severity classification in specific ecosystems. Therefore, retrospective fire severity was classified across ecosystems. Landsat images captured within ~ 30 days after fire events were minimally affected by post burn vegetation regrowth.

Assessing ``inherent vulnerability'' of forests: a methodological approach and a case study from Western Ghats, India

The objective of this study is to present a methodological approach to assess the inherent vulnerability of forests and apply it to a case study. Addressing inherent vulnerability, resulting from current stresses, is a necessary step for building resilience to long-term climate change. The proposed approach includes use of analytical framework that enables selection of vulnerability criteria and indicators systematically, application of pairwise comparison method (PCM) for assigning weights, and synthesis of a composite vulnerability index. This methodological approach has been applied at local scale to Aduvalli Protected Forest in Western Ghats in South India, where a vulnerability index value of 0.248 is estimated. Results of the case study indicate that `preponderance of invasive species' and forest dependence of community are the major sources of vulnerability at present for Aduvalli Protected Forest. Adoption of this methodology can assist in development of forest management plans to enhance adaptability of Aduvalli PF to current as well as future stresses, including climate change. This methodological approach can be applied across forest-types after appropriate changes to criteria and indicators and their weights, to estimate the inherent vulnerability to enable development of adaptation strategy.

Ranking Spatial and Temporal Hotspots for Road Safety Interventions Using a Nonlinear Aggregation Approach

In recent years, the concept of a composite performance index, brought from economic and business statistics, has gained popularity in the field of road safety. The construction of the Composite Safety Performance Index (CSPI) involves the following key steps: the selection of the most appropriate indicators to be aggregated and the method used to aggregate them.

Over the last decade, various aggregation methods for estimating the CSPI have been suggested in the literature. However, recent studies indicates that most of these methods suffer from many deficiencies at both the theoretical and operational level; these include the correlation and compensability between indicators, as well as their high “degree of freedom” which enables one to readily manipulate them to produce desired outcomes.

The purpose of this study is to introduce an alternative aggregation method for the estimation of the CSPI, which is free from the aforementioned deficiencies. In contrast with the current aggregation methods, which generally use linear combinations of road safety indicators to estimate a CSPI, the approach advocated in this study is based on non-linear combinations of indicators and can be summarized into the following two main steps: the pairwise comparison of road safety indicators and the development of marginal and composite road safety performance functions. The introduced method has been successfully applied to identify and rank temporal and spatial hotspots for Northern Ireland, using road traffic collision data recorded in the UK STATs19 database. The obtained results highlight the promising features of the proposed approach including its stability and consistency, which enables significantly reduced deficiencies associated with the current aggregation methods. Progressively, the introduced method could evolve into an intelligent support system for road safety assessment.

A disparidade entre o discurso e a prática da responsabibilidade social: um balanço dos balanços sociais das maiores empresas do Brasil

O objetivo deste trabalho é verificar a relação entre as publicações dos Balanços Sociais (BS) e os valores dos investimentos sociais das empresas no Brasil. Para o desenvolvimento da pesquisa, utilizamos o universo das “500 maiores empresas S.A. nãofinanceiras” (Revista Conjuntura Econômica, 2006) do ranking da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), aproveitando como fonte de informação os BS publicados nos anos de 2001 e 2005. Partindo do estudo de Puppim de Oliveira (2005), pudemos observar a variação de alguns indicadores sociais e ambientais, com base no modelo IBASE de BS. Esta variação pôde ser analisada através das equivalências entre o Lucro Líquido (LL) e a Receita Operacional Líquida (ROL). A referida análise nos possibilitou verificar que há disparidades entre o discurso e a prática da Responsabilidade Social Empresarial (RSE); através da observação de resultados semelhantes ao estudo de Ventura (2005) sobre a institucionalização das práticas sociais. Os caminhos para a comparação da freqüência de publicação dos BS e dos investimentos sociais, a fim de alcançar o objeto deste estudo, foram: (1) a verificação da freqüência de publicação dos BS das empresas do Brasil no ano de 2005; (2) o cálculo e comparação dos valores publicados nos indicadores sociais internos, indicadores sociais externos e indicadores ambientais; (3) a observação da equivalência de tais indicadores quanto ao ROL e ao LL; (4) a constatação da freqüência de publicação dos BS selecionados pelos setores empresariais. A pesquisa de campo contemplou as 500 maiores empresas do ranking mencionado para o desenvolvimento da análise qualitativa. A pesquisa também observou uma amostra de 79 empresas que publicaram o modelo IBASE de BS, no intuito de desenvolver a análise quantitativa. Verificamos que a freqüência de publicação dos BS cresceu consideravelmente, entre os anos de 2001 e 2005, enquanto que os valores reais dos investimentos sociais nem sempre acrescem. Nesta linha, a pesquisa evidenciou que o discurso e a prática da Responsabilidade Social das empresas analisadas não caminharam no mesmo ritmo, entre os anos de 2001 e 2005.

Limonologia e qualidade ambiental de um corpo lêntico receptor de efluentes tratados da indústria de petróleo

Environmental pollution has become a subject of public interest throughout the world. Not only have developed countries been affected by environmental problems but also the developing nations have started to suffer from the serious impacts of pollution. Within this context it is necessary to collect simplified environmental data to assist in the management of water resources by the appropriate authorities. These data are obtained through an environmental index that allows a space-time comparison of points distributed in the same aquatic body, or between different water bodies, for physico-chemical and bacteriological parameters. The aim of this present study was to determine the environmental status of the Lagoa de Baixo at Guamaré/RN, where a production unit of PETROBRAS RN/CE is located. For this purpose the Water Quality Index (WQI) was used in both an add and multiply form, the Trophic State Index (TSI) and the Environmental Quality Quotient (EQQ), as well as determining the concentrations of metals. The average values obtained for the WQI, in its two forms were 68,67 and 62,76 respectively which were inside the good qualification. According to the TSI the lagoon showed characteristics of a middle trophic state, and an impact level of regular as determined by the EQQ

Efeito da degradação ambiental nas propriedades de cisalhamento de compósitos PPS/fibra de carbono

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Prediction of Hevea progeny performance in the presence of genotype-environment interaction

Twenty two open-pollinated Hevea progenies from different parental clones of the Asian origin were tested at five sites in the Northwestern São Paulo State Brazil to investigate the progeny girth growth, rubber yield, bark thickness and plant height. Except for the rubber yield, the analysis of variance indicated highly significant (p<0.01) genotype x environment interaction and heterogeneity of regressions among the progenies. However, the regression stability analysis identified only a few interacting progenies which had regression coefficients significantly different from the expected value of one. The linear regressions of the progeny mean performance at each test on an environmental index (mean of all the progenies in each test) showed the general stability and adaptability of most selected Hevea progenies over the test environments. The few progenies which were responsive and high yielding on different test sites could be used to maximize the rubber cultivars productivity and to obtain the best use of the genetically improved stock under different environmental conditions.