Hayek and complexity: coordination, evolution and methodology in social adaptive systems

The affinity between the work of the Austrian economist Friedrich A. Hayek and the approach of Complexity Economics is widely recognized by the literature. In spite of this, there still is a lack of studies that seek to analyze in depth the relationship between Hayek and complexity. This dissertation is a contribution to the filling of this large gap in the literature. In the first part of the work, we analyze the various periods in the development of Hayek\'s vision of complexity, showing that this vision is strongly present in his works on knowledge, competition, methodology, evolution, and spontaneous order. In the second part, we explore how Hayek was influenced by two of the main precursors of modern complexity theory - cybernetics and general system theory - from the time he was working on his book on theoretical psychology, The Sensory Order (1952), until the end of his intellectual career.

A complexidade e o construtivismo na economia

Complexity and constructivism in economics. This paper attempts to show and summarize the concept of rules, order and complexity introduced around the mid-twentieth century by Friedrich August von Hayek. It also attempts to create a current parallel between those concepts and the field of complexity economics. At the time of his writings, the author sought to present arguments against the Cartesian rationality. Nowadays, the concepts presented by him could also serve as arguments against the way of thought used in mainstream microeconomics. A debate can now be seen between the mainstream microeconomics and the authors of the complexity theory applied to the economy, which can be understood as explanations guided by generic assumptions versus natural explanations guided in a computational approach.

Complexity Simplicity Simplexity

“In the midst of order, there is chaos; but in the midst of chaos, there is order”, John Gribbin wrote in his book Deep Simplicity (p.76). In this dialectical spirit, we discuss the generative tension between complexity and simplicity in the theory and practice of management and organization. Complexity theory suggests that the relationship between complex environments and complex organizations advanced by the well-known Ashby’s law, may be reconsidered: only simple organization provides enough space for individual agency to match environmental turbulence in the form of complex organizational responses. We suggest that complex organizing may be paradoxically facilitated by a simple infrastructure, and that the theory of organizations may be viewed as resulting from the interplay between simplicity and complexity.

The economics of anti-parasite defences in animal societies

RESUME : De nombreuses espèces animales vivent en groupe. Du simple grégarisme aux colonies hautement intégrées de fourmis, la vie sociale a atteint des degrés divers de complexité. Les nombreuses interactions entre membres d'une société favorisent la transmission de parasites. Cela représente un coût potentiel de la vie sociale. Cette thèse s'intéresse aux défenses permettant de réduire le coût du parasitisme dans les colonies de fourmis ainsi qu'à la manière dont le parasitisme a pu façonner certains aspects de ces sociétés. Les colonies de fourmis des bois (Forimica paralugubris) contiennent de grandes quantités de résine de conifères. Cette résine réduit la densité microbienne dans le nid et augmente la survie des ouvrières lors d'infections parasitaires. Dans cette thèse, nous montrons, d'une part, que les ouvrières collectent activement la résine et que ce comportement est plutôt préventif que curatif et, d'autre part, que la résine permet aux ouvrières une utilisation moindre de leurs défenses immunitaires. Ces résultats permettent de conclure que ce comportement réduit l'exposition au parasitisme et qu'il a une fonction adaptative. L'émergence d'un tel comportement de médication chez une espèce d'insectes sociaux illustre le fait que la socialité, bien yue provoquant une exposition accrue au parasitisme, permet également l'émergence de mécanismes sociaux de défense. II a été suggéré que la présence de plusieurs reines au sein d'un même nid (polygynie) améliore la résistance aux parasites en augmentant la diversité génétique au sein de la colonie. En accord avec cette hypothèse, nous montrons qu'une augmentation de la diversité génétique au sein de groupes expérimentaux de Formica selysi améliore leur survie lors d'une infection parasitaire. Cependant, nous suggérons également que sur le terrain, d'autres facteurs corrélés à la polygynie ont des effets antagoniques sur la résistance. Nous montrons par exemple que les ouvrières polygynes semblent avoir une capacité moindre à monter une réponse immunitaire. Certains aspects de la reproduction des fourmis ont pu également être façonnés par le parasitisme. L'accouplement n'a lieu que lors d'une courte période au début de la vie adulte, généralement à l'extérieur de la colonie. Les reines stockent ensuite le sperme et l'utilisent parcimonieusement au cours de leur vie alors que les males meurent rapidement. Nous montrons que les défenses immunitaires des reines de fourmis des bois (F. paralugubris) sont fortement affectées par l'accouplement. Ces modulations immunitaires sont probablement liées à une augmentation de l'exposition au parasitisme lors de l'accouplement ainsi qu'à des blessures copulatoires. I1 semble donc que l'accouplement soit accompagné de coûts immunitaires pour les reines. Dans son ensemble, cette thèse illustre la diversité des mécanismes de défenses contre les parasites dans les sociétés de fourmis. La vie sociale, en offrant un nouveau niveau d'interaction, permet en effet l'émergence d'adaptations originales. Cela explique probablement le grand succès écologique des espèces sociales. SUMMARY : Sociality is widespread among animals and has reached variable degrees of complexity, from loose social Groups to highly integrated ant colonies. The many interactions between members of a social group promote the spread of parasites, but social life also permits the evolution of original defence mechanisms. This thesis sheds light on how ant colonies defend themselves against parasites, and on how parasitism shapes certain aspects of these societies. Wood ants nests (Formica paralugubris) contain large amounts of conifer resin which reduces the microbial density in ant nests and enhances the survival of ants challenged by some pathogens. We show that resin is actively collected by workers and that resin collection is rather a prophylactic than a curative behaviour. Moreover, we suggest that resin reduces the use of the immune defences of workers. Altogether, these results indicate that the use of resin is a collective adaptation to prevent the spread of parasites. The emergence of medication in a social insect species illustrates that sociality does not only increase the exposure to parasites but also allows the emergence of social mechanisms to counter this threat. The number of reproducing queens per colony is a variable trait in ants. It has been suggested that polygyny (the occurrence of multiple queens within a colony), by increasing the colonial genetic diversity, improves disease resistance. In line with this hypothesis, we show that in a socially polymorphic ant (Formica selysi), an experimental increase of colony genetic diversity enhances disease resistance. However, we also suggest that factors covarying with queen number variation in the field have antagonistic effects on parasite resistance. We show for instance that polygyne workers seem to have lower immune defences. Parasites may also shape some aspects of ant queen reproductive biology. Ant queens mate at the beginning of their adult life, usually outside of the colony, and store sperm for several years to fertilize eggs. Males die shortly after mating and queens never remate later in life, which drastically reduces sexual conflicts. Moreover, mating and nest founding occur away from the collective defence mechanisms of the natal colony and might be associated with an increased risk of parasitism. We show that mating affects the immune defences of wood ant queens (F. paralugubris) in multiple ways that are consistent with mating wounds and increased risk of parasitism. We suggest that mating is associated with immunity costs in ants, despite the reduced level of sexual conflicts. Altogether, my thesis illustrates the diversity of anti-parasite mechanisms in ant societies. This sheds light on how sociality, by offering a new level of interactions, allows the evolution of original adaptations, which may explain the wide ecological success of social species.

Organisational values as "attractors of chaos": An emerging cultural change to manage organisational complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.

Integrating socio-economics and ecology: a taxonomy of quantitative methods and a review of their use in agro-ecology

Answering many of the critical questions in conservation, development and environmental management requires integrating the social and natural sciences. However, understanding the array of available quantitative methods and their associated terminology presents a major barrier to successful collaboration. We provide an overview of quantitative socio-economic methods that distils their complexity into a simple taxonomy. We outline how each has been used in conjunction with ecological models to address questions relating to the management of socio-ecological systems. We review the application of social and ecological quantitative concepts to agro-ecology and classify the approaches used to integrate the two disciplines. Our review included all published integrated models from 2003 to 2008 in 27 journals that publish agricultural modelling research. Although our focus is on agro-ecology, many of the results are broadly applicable to other fields involving an interaction between human activities and ecology. We found 36 papers that integrated social and ecological concepts in a quantitative model. Four different approaches to integration were used, depending on the scale at which human welfare was quantified. Most models viewed humans as pure profit maximizers, both when calculating welfare and predicting behaviour. Synthesis and applications. We reached two main conclusions based on our taxonomy and review. The first is that quantitative methods that extend predictions of behaviour and measurements of welfare beyond a simple market value basis are underutilized by integrated models. The second is that the accuracy of prediction for integrated models remains largely unquantified. Addressing both problems requires researchers to reach a common understanding of modelling goals and data requirements during the early stages of a project.

Essays on decision sciences: exploring cognition, information processing, and complexity

This thesis provides three original contributions to the field of Decision Sciences. The first contribution explores the field of heuristics and biases. New variations of the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT--a test to measure "the ability or disposition to resist reporting the response that first comes to mind"), are provided. The original CRT (S. Frederick [2005] Journal of Economic Perspectives, v. 19:4, pp.24-42) has items in which the response is immediate--and erroneous. It is shown that by merely varying the numerical parameters of the problems, large deviations in response are found. Not only the final results are affected by the proposed variations, but so is processing fluency. It seems that numbers' magnitudes serve as a cue to activate system-2 type reasoning. The second contribution explores Managerial Algorithmics Theory (M. Moldoveanu [2009] Strategic Management Journal, v. 30, pp. 737-763); an ambitious research program that states that managers display cognitive choices with a "preference towards solving problems of low computational complexity". An empirical test of this hypothesis is conducted, with results showing that this premise is not supported. A number of problems are designed with the intent of testing the predictions from managerial algorithmics against the predictions of cognitive psychology. The results demonstrate (once again) that framing effects profoundly affect choice, and (an original insight) that managers are unable to distinguish computational complexity problem classes. The third contribution explores a new approach to a computationally complex problem in marketing: the shelf space allocation problem (M-H Yang [2001] European Journal of Operational Research, v. 131, pp.107--118). A new representation for a genetic algorithm is developed, and computational experiments demonstrate its feasibility as a practical solution method. These studies lie at the interface of psychology and economics (with bounded rationality and the heuristics and biases programme), psychology, strategy, and computational complexity, and heuristics for computationally hard problems in management science.

Copyright Exhaustion Rationales and Used Software: A Law and Economics Approach to Oracle v. UsedSoft

This article aims to provide courts and policymakers with an analytical framework that, building upon the traditional rationales of IP exhaustion doctrine, identifies factors which advocate for a modulation or flexibilization of the role of exhaustion in copyright law. Factors include (i) the personal features of acquirers of copies of copyrighted works, distinguishing between consumers and commercial users; (ii) whether post-sale restrictions have been adequately communicated to acquirers and have been agreed in the contract or license; (iii) the degree of complexity of the acquired goods and their prospects of productive uses and interoperability; (iv) the role of other exclusive rights in providing rightholders with indirect control over uses of the copies in the aftermarket; (v) the impact of post-sale restraints in preventing opportunism in long-term contracts and in reducing deadweight losses created by IP pricing; and (vi) the temporal scope of post-sale restraints. After setting out this analytical framework, the ECJ Judgement in Oracle v. UsedSoft is discussed.

Complexity, contingency, and criticality.

Complexity originates from the tendency of large dynamical systems to organize themselves into a critical state, with avalanches or "punctuations" of all sizes. In the critical state, events which would otherwise be uncoupled become correlated. The apparent, historical contingency in many sciences, including geology, biology, and economics, finds a natural interpretation as a self-organized critical phenomenon. These ideas are discussed in the context of simple mathematical models of sandpiles and biological evolution. Insights are gained not only from numerical simulations but also from rigorous mathematical analysis.

Trait physiology and crop modelling to link phenotypic complexity to underlying genetic systems

New tools derived from advances in molecular biology have not been widely adopted in plant breeding because of the inability to connect information at gene level to the phenotype in a manner that is useful for selection. We explore whether a crop growth and development modelling framework can link phenotype complexity to underlying genetic systems in a way that strengthens molecular breeding strategies. We use gene-to-phenotype simulation studies on sorghum to consider the value to marker-assisted selection of intrinsically stable QTLs that might be generated by physiological dissection of complex traits. The consequences on grain yield of genetic variation in four key adaptive traits – phenology, osmotic adjustment, transpiration efficiency, and staygreen – were simulated for a diverse set of environments by placing the known extent of genetic variation in the context of the physiological determinants framework of a crop growth and development model. It was assumed that the three to five genes associated with each trait, had two alleles per locus acting in an additive manner. The effects on average simulated yield, generated by differing combinations of positive alleles for the traits incorporated, varied with environment type. The full matrix of simulated phenotypes, which consisted of 547 location-season combinations and 4235 genotypic expression states, was analysed for genetic and environmental effects. The analysis was conducted in stages with gradually increased understanding of gene-to-phenotype relationships, which would arise from physiological dissection and modelling. It was found that environmental characterisation and physiological knowledge helped to explain and unravel gene and environment context dependencies. We simulated a marker-assisted selection (MAS) breeding strategy based on the analyses of gene effects. When marker scores were allocated based on the contribution of gene effects to yield in a single environment, there was a wide divergence in rate of yield gain over all environments with breeding cycle depending on the environment chosen for the QTL analysis. It was suggested that knowledge resulting from trait physiology and modelling would overcome this dependency by identifying stable QTLs. The improved predictive power would increase the utility of the QTLs in MAS. Developing and implementing this gene-to-phenotype capability in crop improvement requires enhanced attention to phenotyping, ecophysiological modelling, and validation studies to test the stability of candidate QTLs.

Úton egy fenntartható gazdasági paradigma felé – A komplexitás befogadása a hálózati elméleteken keresztül (Towards a sustainable economic paradigm – Acceptance of the complexity through network theories)

Mára elkerülhetetlennek tűnik a gondolati váltás a gazdaságtudományok területén annak érdekében, hogy közelebb kerüljünk a hármas (gazdasági, társadalmi, környezeti) válságot előidéző problémák megoldásaihoz. A szerzők cikkükben amellett érvelnek, hogy a komplexitás befogadása kezdeti törekvésként értelmezhető azon az úton, amely a mindennapokban érzékelhető társadalmi és ökológiai problémák megoldásához vezet. Már léteznek olyan gazdaság- és vállalatelméletek, amelyek kezdik megkérdőjelezni az eddigi főáramú koncepciókat, és készek arra, hogy elveiket, elméleteiket a működési környezet bonyolultságát elfogadva alakítsák ki, és így találjanak mindennapos megoldásokat a gazdasági működésben. Ilyen például – a cikkben szereplő – IMP (Industrial Marketing and Purchasing) csoport hálózatelmélete. A szerzők azt kívánják bemutatni, hogy az ilyen hálózatelméletek alkalmasak arra, hogy a vállalatközi szférán túl is befolyásolják azt, ahogyan a vállalatok döntéseiket meghozzák és kapcsolataikat kezelik. ______ Today, it seems inevitable change of thought in the field of economics in order to get closer to solutions of problems which induced the triple (economic, social, environmental) crisis. In their article, the authors argue that the reception of complexity can be interpreted as an initial effort on the path that leads to the solutions of the everyday perceived social and ecological problems. The authors aim to present that the IMP (Industrial Marketing and Purchasing) group network theory is able to influence beyond the sphere of inter-company, that companies take their decisions and their relationships are treated.

Rangeland profitability in the northern Gulf region of Queensland: understanding beef business complexity and the subsequent impact on land resource management and environmental outcomes

The farm-gate value of extensive beef production from the northern Gulf region of Queensland, Australia, is ~$150 million annually. Poor profitability and declining equity are common issues for most beef businesses in the region. The beef industry relies primarily on native pasture systems and studies continue to report a decline in the condition and productivity of important land types in the region. Governments and Natural Resource Management groups are investing significant resources to restore landscape health and productivity. Fundamental community expectations also include broader environmental outcomes such as reducing beef industry greenhouse gas emissions. Whole-of-business analysis results are presented from 18 extensive beef businesses (producers) to highlight the complex social and economic drivers of management decisions that impact on the natural resource and environment. Business analysis activities also focussed on improving enterprise performance. Profitability, herd performance and greenhouse emission benchmarks are documented and discussed.