Bayesian analysis of community dynamics

Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for the patterns of species abundance, diversity, and distribution within and across ecological systems is a fundamental research focus in ecology. Species abundance patterns are shaped in a convoluted way by interplays between inter-/intra-specific interactions, environmental forcing, demographic stochasticity, and dispersal. Comprehensive models and suitable inferential and computational tools for teasing out these different factors are quite limited, even though such tools are critically needed to guide the implementation of management and conservation strategies, the efficacy of which rests on a realistic evaluation of the underlying mechanisms. This is even more so in the prevailing context of concerns over climate change progress and its potential impacts on ecosystems. This thesis utilized the flexible hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework in combination with the computer intensive methods known as Markov chain Monte Carlo, to develop methodologies for identifying and evaluating the factors that control the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. These methodologies were used to analyze data from a range of taxa: macro-moths (Lepidoptera), fish, crustaceans, birds, and rodents. Environmental stochasticity emerged as the most important driver of community dynamics, followed by density dependent regulation; the influence of inter-specific interactions on community-level variances was broadly minor. This thesis contributes to the understanding of the mechanisms underlying the structure and dynamics of ecological communities, by showing directly that environmental fluctuations rather than inter-specific competition dominate the dynamics of several systems. This finding emphasizes the need to better understand how species are affected by the environment and acknowledge species differences in their responses to environmental heterogeneity, if we are to effectively model and predict their dynamics (e.g. for management and conservation purposes). The thesis also proposes a model-based approach to integrating the niche and neutral perspectives on community structure and dynamics, making it possible for the relative importance of each category of factors to be evaluated in light of field data.

Defining seasonal marine microbial community dynamics

Here we describe, the longest microbial time-series analyzed to date using high-resolution 16S rRNA tag pyrosequencing of samples taken monthly over 6 years at a temperate marine coastal site off Plymouth, UK. Data treatment effected the estimation of community richness over a 6-year period, whereby 8794 operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were identified using single-linkage preclustering and 21 130 OTUs were identified by denoising the data. The Alphaproteobacteria were the most abundant Class, and the most frequently recorded OTUs were members of the Rickettsiales (SAR 11) and Rhodobacteriales. This near-surface ocean bacterial community showed strong repeatable seasonal patterns, which were defined by winter peaks in diversity across all years. Environmental variables explained far more variation in seasonally predictable bacteria than did data on protists or metazoan biomass. Change in day length alone explains >65% of the variance in community diversity. The results suggested that seasonal changes in environmental variables are more important than trophic interactions. Interestingly, microbial association network analysis showed that correlations in abundance were stronger within bacterial taxa rather than between bacteria and eukaryotes, or between bacteria and environmental variables.

Marine reserve designation, trophic cascades and altered community dynamics

Marine ecosystems and their associated populations are increasingly at risk from the cumulative impacts of many anthropogenic threats that increase the likelihood of species extinction and altered community dynamics. In response, marine reserves can be used to protect exploited species and conserve biodiversity. The increased abundance of predatory species in marine reserves may cause indirect effects along chains of multi-trophic interactions. These trophic cascades can arise through direct predation, density-mediated indirect interactions (DMIIs), or indirect behavioural effects, termed trait-mediated indirect interactions (TMIIs). The extent of algal cover and the abundance of 4 primary consumers were determined in Lough Hyne, which was designated Europe's first marine nature reserve in 1981. The primary consumers were the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, the topshell Gibbula cineraria, the oyster Anomia ephippium, and the scallop Chlamys varia. The abundances of 3 starfish species (Marthasterias glacialis, Asterias rubens, and Asterina gibbosa) were also determined, as were 2 potential crustacean predators, Necora puber and Carcinus maenas. These data were compared with historical data from a 1962 (prey) and a 1963 (predator) survey to determine the nature of community interactions over adjacent trophic levels. The present study reveals a breakdown in population structure of the 4 surveyed prey species. Marine reserve designation has led to an increase in predatory crabs and M. glacialis, a subsequent decrease in primary consumers, especially the herbivore P. lividus, and an increase in macroalgal cover which is indicative of a trophic cascade. The study shows that establishing a Marine Reserve does not guarantee that conservation benefits will be distributed equally.

Community dynamics and the lower airway microbiota in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, smokers and healthy non-smokers

RATIONALE: The role bacteria play in the progression of COPD has increasingly been highlighted in recent years. However, the microbial community complexity in the lower airways of patients with COPD is poorly characterised.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the lower airway microbiota in patients with COPD, smokers and non-smokers.

METHODS: Bronchial wash samples from adults with COPD (n=18), smokers with no airways disease (n=8) and healthy individuals (n=11) were analysed by extended-culture and culture-independent Illumina MiSeq sequencing. We determined aerobic and anaerobic microbiota load and evaluated differences in bacteria associated with the three cohorts. Culture-independent analysis was used to determine differences in microbiota between comparison groups including taxonomic richness, diversity, relative abundance, 'core' microbiota and co-occurrence.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS: Extended-culture showed no difference in total load of aerobic and anaerobic bacteria between the three cohorts. Culture-independent analysis revealed that the prevalence of members of Pseudomonas spp. was greater in the lower airways of patients with COPD; however, the majority of the sequence reads for this taxa were attributed to three patients. Furthermore, members of Bacteroidetes, such as Prevotella spp., were observed to be greater in the 'healthy' comparison groups. Community diversity (α and β) was significantly less in COPD compared with healthy groups. Co-occurrence of bacterial taxa and the observation of a putative 'core' community within the lower airways were also observed.

CONCLUSIONS: Microbial community composition in the lower airways of patients with COPD is significantly different to that found in smokers and non-smokers, indicating that a component of the disease is associated with changes in microbiological status.

Changing precipitation patterns alter plant community dynamics and succession in an ex-arable grassland

1. Changes in the frequency of extreme events, such as droughts, may be one of the most significant impacts of climate change for ecosystems. Models predict more frequent summer droughts in much of England: this paper investigates the impact on different types of plants in an ex-arable grassland community. 2. A long-term experiment simulated increased and decreased summer precipitation. Substantial interannual variation allowed the effects of summer drought to be tested in combination with wet and dry weather in other seasons. This is important, as climate models predict increased winter precipitation. 3. Total cover abundance in early summer increased with increasing water supply in the previous summer; there was no effect of winter precipitation. Productivity is therefore likely to decrease with more frequent summer droughts, with no mitigating effect of wetter winters. 4. The percentage cover of perennial grasses declined during a natural drought in 1995-97; this was exacerbated by the experimental drought treatment and reduced by supplemented rainfall. Simultaneously, short-lived ruderal species increased; this was greatest in drought treatments and least with supplemented rainfall. 4. These trends were subsequently reversed during several years of unusually wet weather, with perennial grasses increasing and short-lived forbs decreasing. This occurred even in experimentally droughted plots, and we propose that it resulted from rapid coverage of gaps during wet autumns and winters. 6. Deep-rooted species generally proved to be more drought resistant, but there were exceptions. 7. We conclude that increased frequency of summer droughts could have serious implications for the establishment and successional development of ex-arable grasslands. Increased winter precipitation would moderate the impact on species composition, but not on productivity.

Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers

Retreating ice fronts (as a result of a warming climate) expose large expanses of deglaciated forefield, which become colonized by microbes and plants. There has been increasing interest in characterizing the biogeochemical development of these ecosystems using a chronosequence approach. Prior to the establishment of plants, microbes use autochthonously produced and allochthonously delivered nutrients for growth. The microbial community composition is largely made up of heterotrophic microbes (both bacteria and fungi), autotrophic microbes and nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs. Microbial activity is thought to be responsible for the initial build-up of labile nutrient pools, facilitating the growth of higher order plant life in developed soils. However, it is unclear to what extent these ecosystems rely on external sources of nutrients such as ancient carbon pools and periodic nitrogen deposition. Furthermore, the seasonal variation of chronosequence dynamics and the effect of winter are largely unexplored. Modelling this ecosystem will provide a quantitative evaluation of the key processes and could guide the focus of future research. Year-round datasets combined with novel metagenomic techniques will help answer some of the pressing questions in this relatively new but rapidly expanding field, which is of growing interest in the context of future large-scale ice retreat.

Effects of flooding regime and woody bamboos on tree community dynamics in a section of tropical semideciduous forest in South-Eastern Brazil

The influence of a population of the understorey woody bamboo Merostachys riedeliana and different flooding regimes on tree community dynamics in a section of tropical semideciduous forest in South-Eastern Brazil was examined. A forest section with an area of 1.6 ha composed of 71 adjacent plots was located on a slope ending at the river margin. The section was divided into five topographical sectors according to the mean duration of river floods. In 1991 and 1998 all trees with a diameter at the base of the trunk greater than or equal to 5 cm were measured, identified and tagged, and all live bamboo culms were counted. Annualised estimates of the rates of tree mortality and recruitment, gain and loss of tree basal area, and change in bamboo density were calculated for each of the 71 plots and five topographical sectors as well as for diameter classes and tree species. To segregate patterns arising from spatially autocorrelated events, geostatistical analyses were used prior to statistical comparisons and correlations. In general, mortality rates were not compensated by recruitment rates but there was a net increase in basal area in all sectors, suggesting that the tree community as a whole was in a building phase. Tree community dynamics of the point bar forest (Depression and Levee sectors) differed from that of the upland forest (Ridgetop, Middle Slope and Lower Slope sectors) in the extremely high rates of gain in basal area. The predominant and specialised species, Inga vera and Salix humboldtiana, are probably favoured by relaxed competition in an environment stressed by long-lasting floods. In the upland forest, mortality rates were highest at the Middle Slope, particularly for smaller trees, while recruitment rates were lowest. As bamboo clumps were concentrated in this sector, the locally higher instability in the tree community probably resulted from the direct interference of bamboos. The density of bamboo culms in the upland forest was negatively correlated with the rates of tree recruitment and gain in basal area, and positively correlated with tree mortality rates. Bamboos therefore seemed to restrict the recruitment, growth and survival of trees.

Tree population and community dynamics in a Brazilian tropical semideciduous forest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Viruses in the marine environment: community dynamics, phage-host interactions and genomic structure

[EN] There are an estimated 1030 viruses in the world oceans, the majority of which are phages (viruses that infect bacteria). Extensive research has demonstrated the significant influence of marine phages on microbial abundance, community structure, genetic exchange and global biogeochemical cycles. In this thesis, we contribute to increase the knowledge about the ecological role of viruses in marine systems, but also we aimed to provide a better understanding about the interactions between phages and their hosts and the genetic pool and biogeography of some the isolated phages genomes.

Reconstructing Iron Age Community Dynamics in Eskisehir Province, Central Turkey

Current understanding of the Iron Age polity of Phrygia in Central Anatolia is primarily based on excavations and survey in the region of the Phrygian capital of Gordion. In order to expand our knowledge of the Phrygian polity, we assess the scale and nature of Iron Age communities in the western (EskiAYehir) region of Phrygia. We address the challenge of interpreting ceramics derived from large-scale archaeological survey by utilizing Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) of ceramics from 12 sites across the region collected by the EskiAYehir archaeological survey project as well as an excavated assemblage from Aar Hoyuk. While the uniformity in ceramic technology and styles suggest the region is part of the larger Phrygian community, NAA results reveal that (a) ceramic production was regionally highly localized with limited evidence of standardization during the Iron Age and (b) based on evidence of community interaction it is possible to establish a partial chronological sequence of development. These results have implications not only for understanding the internal dynamics within the Phrygian core but also for developing a methodology for comparing ancient polities using commensurate units of interacting communities. The present study is part of the larger Anatolian Iron Age Ceramics project (http://www.une.edu.au/a-ia).

The influence of concurrent disturbances on plant community dynamics in northern hemlock-hardwood forests

Throughout the Upper Great Lakes region, alterations to historic disturbance regimes have influenced plant community dynamics in hemlock-hardwood forests. Several important mesic forest species, eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis), yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis), eastern white pine (Pinus strobus), and Canada yew (Taxus canadensis), are in decline due to exploitive logging practices used at the turn of the 20th century and the wave of intense fires that followed. Continued regeneration and recruitment failure is attributed to contemporary forest management practices and overbrowsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Therefore, I examined the influence of two concurrent disturbances, overstory removal and herbivory, on plant community dynamics in two hemlock-hardwood forests. I measured the post-disturbance regeneration response (herbaceous and woody species) inside and outside of deer exclosures in 20 artificial canopy gaps (50 – 450 m2) and monitored survival and growth for hundreds of planted seedlings. The results of this research show that interacting disturbances can play a large role in shaping plant community composition and structure in hemlock-hardwood forests. White-tailed deer herbivory homogenized the post-disturbance plant communities across the experimental gradient of gap areas, essentially making species compositions in small gaps “look like” those in large gaps. Deer browsing also influenced probability of survival for planted Canada yew cuttings; all else being equal an individual was nearly seven times more likely to survive if protected from herbivory (P < 0.001). In contrast, the ability of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) to persist under high levels of herbivory and respond rapidly to overstory release appears to be related to the presence of stem layering(i.e., portions of below-ground prostrate stem). Layering occurred in 52% of excavated saplings (n = 100) and was significantly associated with increased post-disturbance height growth. Understory light was also important to planted seedling establishment and height growth. Higher levels of direct under-canopy light negatively impacted survival for shade-tolerant hemlock and Canada yew, while an increase in diffuse light was linked to a higher probability of survival for yellow birch and height growth for hemlock and Canada yew. Increases in white pine height growth were also significantly associated with a decrease in canopy cover.

Infra-Population and -Community Dynamics of the Parasites Nosema apis and Nosema ceranae, and Consequences for Honey Bee (Apis mellifera) Hosts

Nosema spp. fungal gut parasites are among myriad possible explanations for contemporary increased mortality of western honey bees (Apis mellifera, hereafter honey bee) in many regions of the world. Invasive Nosema ceranae is particularly worrisome because some evidence suggests it has greater virulence than its congener N. apis. N. ceranae appears to have recently switched hosts from Asian honey bees (Apis cerana) and now has a nearly global distribution in honey bees, apparently displacing N. apis. We examined parasite reproduction and effects of N. apis, N. ceranae, and mixed Nosema infections on honey bee hosts in laboratory experiments. Both infection intensity and honey bee mortality were significantly greater for N. ceranae than for N. apis or mixed infections; mixed infection resulted in mortality similar to N. apis parasitism and reduced spore intensity, possibly due to inter-specific competition. This is the first long-term laboratory study to demonstrate lethal consequences of N. apis and N. ceranae and mixed Nosema parasitism in honey bees, and suggests that differences in reproduction and intra-host competition may explain apparent heterogeneous exclusion of the historic parasite by the invasive species

Community dynamics of stabilized dune xerophytic shrubs

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Ecologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016