How Optimal is US Monetary Policy?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis assume that policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow policy to be described by various forms of optimal policy - commitment, discretion and quasi-commitment. We find that, even after allowing for Markov switching in shock variances, the inflation target and/or rule parameters, the data preferred description of policy is that the US Fed operates under discretion with a marked increase in conservatism after the 1970s. Parameter estimates are similar to those obtained under simple rules, except that the degree of habits is significantly lower and the prevalence of cost-push shocks greater. Moreover, we find that the greatest welfare gains from the ‘Great Moderation’ arose from the reduction in the variances in shocks hitting the economy, rather than increased inflation aversion. However, much of the high inflation of the 1970s could have been avoided had policy makers been able to commit, even without adopting stronger anti-inflation objectives. More recently the Fed appears to have temporarily relaxed policy following the 1987 stock market crash, and has lost, without regaining, its post-Volcker conservatism following the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in Euro area policy making, with a strengthening of the anti-inflation stance in the early years of the ERM, which was then lost around the time of German reunification and only recovered following the turnoil in the ERM in 1992. The ECB does not appear to have been as conservative as aggregate Euro-area policy was under Bundesbank leadership, and its response to the financial crisis has been muted. The estimates also suggest that the most appropriate description of policy is that of discretion, with no evidence of commitment in the Euro-area. As a result although both ‘good luck’ and ‘good policy’ played a role in the moderation of inflation and output volatility in the Euro-area, the welfare gains would have been substantially higher had policy makers been able to commit. We consider a range of delegation schemes as devices to improve upon the discretionary outcome, and conclude that price level targeting would have achieved welfare levels close to those attained under commitment, even after accounting for the existence of the Zero Lower Bound on nominal interest rates.

US Monetary and Fiscal Policies - Conflict or Cooperation?

Most of the literature estimating DSGE models for monetary policy analysis ignores fiscal policy and assumes that monetary policy follows a simple rule. In this paper we allow both fiscal and monetary policy to be described by rules and/or optimal policy which are subject to switches over time. We find that US monetary and fiscal policy have often been in conflict, and that it is relatively rare that we observe the benign policy combination of an conservative monetary policy paired with a debt stabilizing fiscal policy. In a series of counterfactuals, a conservative central bank following a time-consistent fiscal policy leader would come close to mimicking the cooperative Ramsey policy. However, if policy makers cannot credibly commit to such a regime, monetary accommodation of the prevailing fiscal regime may actually be welfare improving.

Commitment vs. Discretion in the UK: An Empirical Investigation of the Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regime

This paper investigates the conduct of monetary and fiscal policy in the post-ERM period in the UK. Using a simple DSGE New Keynesian model of non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policy interactions under fiscal intra-period leadership, we demonstrate that the past policy in the UK is better explained by optimal policy under discretion than under commitment. We estimate policy objectives of both policy makers. We demonstrate that fiscal policy plays an important role in identifying the monetary policy regime.

Contextual politics of service delivery reforms: Lessons from Delhi, Mexico city and Sao Paulo comparison

Little attention has been given to the contextual politics of service delivery reforms. By focusing on cases of reform in the healthcare sector and, to a lesser extent, in the main policies in the social service sector in India, Mexico and Brazil, this article explores two dimensions of analysis which have enormous relevance in understanding the reach and effectiveness of service delivery reforms: (1) the historical timing of reforms and sectorial baselines, and (2) the degree and institutional locus of local discretion in policy. Findings show that depending on both dimensions, there is an extraordinary variation as to the degree, interests involved and meaning of changes which, in theory, correspond to these countries` commitment to the service delivery reforms, However, consideration of the contextual politics is relevant not for the sake of diversity but for the similarities that this diversity reveals, pointing to underlying analytic dimensions that receive attention in this article.

Factors involved in the T helper type 1 and type 2 cell commitment and osteoclast regulation in inflammatory apical diseases

Periapical chronic lesion formation involves activation of the immune response and alveolar bone resorption around the tooth apex. However, the overall roles of T helper type 1 (Th1), Th2, and T-regulatory cell (Treg) responses and osteoclast regulatory factors in periapical cysts and granulomas have not been fully determined. This study aimed to investigate whether different forms of apical periodontitis, namely cysts and granulomas, show different balances of Th1, Th2 regulators, Treg markers, and factors involved in osteoclast chemotaxis and activation. Gene expression of these factors was assessed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, in samples obtained from healthy gingiva (n = 8), periapical granulomas (n = 20), and cysts (n = 10). Periapical cysts exhibited a greater expression of GATA-3, while a greater expression of T-bet, Foxp3, and interleukin-10 (IL-10) was seen in granulomas. The expression of interferon-gamma, IL-4, and transforming growth factor-beta was similar in both lesions. Regarding osteoclastic factors, while the expression of SDF-1 alpha/CXCL12 and CCR1 was higher in cysts, the expression of RANKL was significantly higher in granulomas. Both lesions exhibited similar expression of CXCR4, CK beta 8/CCL23, and osteoprotegerin, which were significantly higher than in control. Our results showed a predominance of osteoclast activity in granulomas that was correlated with the Th1 response. The concomitant expression of Treg cell markers suggests a possible suppression of the Th1 response in granulomas. On the other hand, in cysts the Th2 activity is augmented. The mechanisms of periradicular lesion development are still not fully understood but the imbalance of immune and osteoclastic cell activity in cysts and granulomas seems to be critically regulated by Treg cells.

An investigation into commitment in non-Western industrial marketing relationships

This paper reports an investigation into the antecedents of commitment in non-Western industrial marketing relationships. The authors draw the antecedents from extant literature and posit that commitment is related to trust (integrity and reliability), communication quality, conflict, and similarity (social, ethnic, and economic). It is further argued that trust mediates the effects of communication, conflict, and similarity on commitment. As an extension, the authors examine the moderating effects of normative contracts (an implicit understanding of roles and responsibilities) on the construct interrelationships. The hypotheses are tested using data collected from approximately 150 industrial marketing relationships sampled from overseas Chinese firms. The results generally support the authors' framework; however, the mediating hypotheses are not supported. There is evidence of systematic differences in the effects of the studied antecedents on commitment and trust. Furthermore, a multigroup analysis provides evidence of significant moderating effects due to contracting mode. The study provides new insights into the theory and practice of industrial marketing. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

A practical approach for profit-based unit commitment with emission limitations

This paper proposes a practical approach for profit-based unit commitment (PBUC) with emission limitations. Under deregulation, unit commitment has evolved from a minimum-cost optimisation problem to a profit-based optimisation problem. However, as a consequence of growing environmental concern, the impact of fossil-fuelled power plants must be considered, giving rise to emission limitations. The simultaneous address of the profit with the emission is taken into account in our practical approach by a multiobjective optimisation (MO) problem. Hence, trade-off Curves between profit and emission are obtained for different energy price profiles, in a way to aid decision-makers concerning emission allowance trading. Moreover, a new parameter is presented, ratio of change, and the corresponding gradient angle, enabling the proper selection of a compromise commitment for the units. A case study based on the standard IEEE 30-bus system is presented to illustrate the proficiency Of Our practical approach for the new competitive and environmentally constrained electricity supply industry.

Unit Commitment in a Competitive and Emission Constrained Environment

This paper is on the unit commitment problem, considering not only the economic perspective, but also the environmental perspective. We propose a bi-objective approach to handle the problem with conflicting profit and emission objectives. Numerical results based on the standard IEEE 30-bus test system illustrate the proficiency of the proposed approach.

Optimization model for medium term natural gas commitment

In this paper we study the optimal natural gas commitment for a known demand scenario. This study implies the best location of GSUs to supply all demands and the optimal allocation from sources to gas loads, through an appropriate transportation mode, in order to minimize total system costs. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable optimization model, reflecting real-world operations and the constraints of natural gas systems. The mathematical model is based on a Lagrangean heuristic, using the Lagrangean relaxation, an efficient approach to solve the problem. Computational results are presented for Iberian and American natural gas systems, geographically organized in 65 and 88 load nodes, respectively. The location model results, supported by the computational application GasView, show the optimal location and allocation solution, system total costs and suggest a suitable gas transportation mode, presented in both numerical and graphic supports.