The cost-effectiveness of routine follow-up after primary total hip arthroplasty

Routine postsurgery assessment of primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) is recommended in many countries. Whether the benefits of this activity are justified by the costs is not known. We used a decision-analytic Markov model to compare the costs and health outcomes of 3 different follow-up strategies after primary THA. If there is no routine follow-up of patients for 7 years after primary THA, there would be cost savings between AU$6.5 and $11.9 million and gains of between 1.8 and 8.8 quality-adjusted life years. Policy makers should investigate less resource-intensive alternatives to common routine postsurgical assessment.

Depression in Working Adults: Comparing the Costs and Health Outcomes of Working When Ill

Objective Working through a depressive illness can improve mental health but also carries risks and costs from reduced concentration, fatigue, and poor on-the-job performance. However, evidence-based recommendations for managing work attendance decisions, which benefit individuals and employers, are lacking. Therefore, this study has compared the costs and health outcomes of short-term absenteeism versus working while ill (“presenteeism”) amongst employed Australians reporting lifetime major depression. Methods Cohort simulation using state-transition Markov models simulated movement of a hypothetical cohort of workers, reporting lifetime major depression, between health states over one- and five-years according to probabilities derived from a quality epidemiological data source and existing clinical literature. Model outcomes were health service and employment-related costs, and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs), captured for absenteeism relative to presenteeism, and stratified by occupation (blue versus white-collar). Results Per employee with depression, absenteeism produced higher mean costs than presenteeism over one- and five-years ($42,573/5-years for absenteeism, $37,791/5-years for presenteeism). However, overlapping confidence intervals rendered differences non-significant. Employment-related costs (lost productive time, job turnover), and antidepressant medication and service use costs of absenteeism and presenteeism were significantly higher for white-collar workers. Health outcomes differed for absenteeism versus presenteeism amongst white-collar workers only. Conclusions Costs and health outcomes for absenteeism and presenteeism were not significantly different; service use costs excepted. Significant variation by occupation type was identified. These findings provide the first occupation-specific cost evidence which can be used by clinicians, employees, and employers to review their management of depression-related work attendance, and may suggest encouraging employees to continue working is warranted.

Choosing the number of doses and the cohort size for phase I dose-escalation studies

This paper reviews Bayesian procedures for phase 1 dose-escalation studies and compares different dose schedules and cohort sizes. The methodology described is motivated by the situation of phase 1 dose-escalation studiesin oncology, that is, a single dose administered to each patient, with a single binary response ("toxicity"' or "no toxicity") observed. It is likely that a wider range of applications of the methodology is possible. In this paper, results from 10000-fold simulation runs conducted using the software package Bayesian ADEPT are presented. Four designs were compared under six scenarios. The simulation results indicate that there are slight advantages of having more dose levels and smaller cohort sizes.

Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.

Discrete-event Simulation and Optimization to Improve the Performance of a Healthcare System

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08