Maximum likelihood estimation of a migration matrix and effective population sizes in n subpopulations by using a coalescent approach

A maximum likelihood estimator based on the coalescent for unequal migration rates and different subpopulation sizes is developed. The method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to investigate possible genealogies with branch lengths and with migration events. Properties of the new method are shown by using simulated data from a four-population n-island model and a source–sink population model. Our estimation method as coded in migrate is tested against genetree; both programs deliver a very similar likelihood surface. The algorithm converges to the estimates fairly quickly, even when the Markov chain is started from unfavorable parameters. The method was used to estimate gene flow in the Nile valley by using mtDNA data from three human populations.

Coalescent Method in Conjunction with Niche Modeling Reveals Cryptic Diversity among Centipedes in the Western Ghats of South India

Background: There has been growing interest in integrative taxonomy that uses data from multiple disciplines for species delimitation. Typically, in such studies, monophyly is taken as a proxy for taxonomic distinctiveness and these units are treated as potential species. However, monophyly could arise due to stochastic processes. Thus here, we have employed a recently developed tool based on coalescent approach to ascertain the taxonomic distinctiveness of various monophyletic units. Subsequently, the species status of these taxonomic units was further tested using corroborative evidence from morphology and ecology. This inter-disciplinary approach was implemented on endemic centipedes of the genus Digitipes (Attems 1930) from the Western Ghats (WG) biodiversity hotspot of India. The species of the genus Digitipes are morphologically conserved, despite their ancient late Cretaceous origin. Principal Findings: Our coalescent analysis based on mitochondrial dataset indicated the presence of nine putative species. The integrative approach, which includes nuclear, morphology, and climate datasets supported distinctiveness of eight putative species, of which three represent described species and five were new species. Among the five new species, three were morphologically cryptic species, emphasizing the effectiveness of this approach in discovering cryptic diversity in less explored areas of the tropics like the WG. In addition, species pairs showed variable divergence along the molecular, morphological and climate axes. Conclusions: A multidisciplinary approach illustrated here is successful in discovering cryptic diversity with an indication that the current estimates of invertebrate species richness for the WG might have been underestimated. Additionally, the importance of measuring multiple secondary properties of species while defining species boundaries was highlighted given variable divergence of each species pair across the disciplines.

Bayesian coalescent analysis reveals a high rate of molecular evolution in GB virus C

GB virus C/hepatitis G (GBV-C) is an RNA virus of the family Flaviviridae. Despite replicating with an RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, some previous estimates of rates of evolutionary change in GBV-C suggest that it fixes mutations at the anomalously low rate of similar to 100(-7) nucleotide substitution per site, per year. However, these estimates were largely based on the assumption that GBV-C and its close relative GBV-A (New World monkey GB viruses) codiverged with their primate hosts over millions of years. Herein, we estimated the substitution rate of GBV-C using the largest set of dated GBV-C isolates compiled to date and a Bayesian coalescent approach that utilizes the year of sampling and so is independent of the assumption of codivergence. This revealed a rate of evolutionary change approximately four orders of magnitude higher than that estimated previously, in the range of 10(-2) to 10(-3) sub/site/year, and hence in line with those previously determined for RNA viruses in general and the Flaviviridae in particular. In addition, we tested the assumption of host-virus codivergence in GBV-A by performing a reconciliation analysis of host and virus phylogenies. Strikingly, we found no statistical evidence for host-virus codivergence in GBV-A, indicating that substitution rates in the GB viruses should not be estimated from host divergence times.

Genetic diversity and population history of golden monkeys (Rhinopithecus roxellana)

Golden monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), namely the snub-nosed monkey, is a well-known endangered primate, which distributes only in the central part of mainland China. As an effort to understand the current genetic status as well as population history of this species, we collected a sample of 32 individuals from four different regions, which cover the major habitat of this species. Forty-four allozyme loci were surveyed in our study by allozyme electrophoresis, none of which was found to be polymorphic. The void of polymorphism compared with that of other nonhuman primates is surprising particularly considering that the current population size is many times larger than that of some other endangered species. Since many independent loci are surveyed in this Study, the most plausible explanation for our observation is that the population has experienced a recent bottleneck. We used a coalescent approach to explore various scenarios of population bottleneck and concluded that the most recent bottleneck could have happened within the last 15,000 years. Moreover, the proposed simulation approach could be useful to researchers who need to analyze the non- or low-polymorphism data.

High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus

The cool-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a key species in North Atlantic marine ecosystems since it represents an important food resource for the developmental stages of several fish of major economic value. Over the last 40 years, however, data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey have highlighted a 70 per cent reduction in C. finmarchicus biomass, coupled with a gradual northward shift in the species's distribution, which have both been linked with climate change. To determine the potential for C. finmarchicus to track changes in habitat availability and maintain stable effective population sizes, we have assessed levels of gene flow and dispersal in current populations, as well as using a coalescent approach together with palaeodistribution modelling to elucidate the historical population demography of the species over previous changes in Earth's climate. Our findings indicate high levels of dispersal and a constant effective population size over the period 359 000–566 000 BP and suggest that C. finmarchicus possesses the capacity to track changes in available habitat, a feature that may be of crucial importance to the species's ability to cope with the current period of global climate change.

High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus

The cool-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a key species in North Atlantic marine ecosystems since it represents an important food resource for the developmental stages of several fish of major economic value. Over the last 40 years, however, data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey have highlighted a 70 per cent reduction in C. finmarchicus biomass, coupled with a gradual northward shift in the species's distribution, which have both been linked with climate change. To determine the potential for C. finmarchicus to track changes in habitat availability and maintain stable effective population sizes, we have assessed levels of gene flow and dispersal in current populations, as well as using a coalescent approach together with palaeodistribution modelling to elucidate the historical population demography of the species over previous changes in Earth's climate. Our findings indicate high levels of dispersal and a constant effective population size over the period 359 000-566 000 BP and suggest that C. finmarchicus possesses the capacity to track changes in available habitat, a feature that may be of crucial importance to the species's ability to cope with the current period of global climate change.

Divergent evolutionary processes associated with colonization of offshore islands

Oceanic islands have been a test ground for evolutionary theory, but here, we focus on the possibilities for evolutionary study created by offshore islands. These can be colonized through various means and by a wide range of species, including those with low dispersal capabilities. We use morphology, modern and ancient sequences of cytochrome b (cytb) and microsatellite genotypes to examine colonization history and evolutionary change associated with occupation of the Orkney archipelago by the common vole (Microtus arvalis), a species found in continental Europe but not in Britain. Among possible colonization scenarios, our results are most consistent with human introduction at least 5100 bp (confirmed by radiocarbon dating). We used approximate Bayesian computation of population history to infer the coast of Belgium as the possible source and estimated the evolutionary timescale using a Bayesian coalescent approach. We showed substantial morphological divergence of the island populations, including a size increase presumably driven by selection and reduced microsatellite variation likely reflecting founder events and genetic drift. More surprisingly, our results suggest that a recent and widespread cytb replacement event in the continental source area purged cytb variation there, whereas the ancestral diversity is largely retained in the colonized islands as a genetic ‘ark’. The replacement event in the continental M. arvalis was probably triggered by anthropogenic causes (land-use change). Our studies illustrate that small offshore islands can act as field laboratories for studying various evolutionary processes over relatively short timescales, informing about the mainland source area as well as the island.

Genetic analysis of complex demographic scenarios: Spatially expanding populations of the cane toad, Bufo marinus

Inferring the spatial expansion dynamics of invading species from molecular data is notoriously difficult due to the complexity of the processes involved. For these demographic scenarios, genetic data obtained from highly variable markers may be profitably combined with specific sampling schemes and information from other sources using a Bayesian approach. The geographic range of the introduced toad Bufo marinus is still expanding in eastern and northern Australia, in each case from isolates established around 1960. A large amount of demographic and historical information is available on both expansion areas. In each area, samples were collected along a transect representing populations of different ages and genotyped at 10 microsatellite loci. Five demographic models of expansion, differing in the dispersal pattern for migrants and founders and in the number of founders, were considered. Because the demographic history is complex, we used an approximate Bayesian method, based on a rejection-regression algorithm. to formally test the relative likelihoods of the five models of expansion and to infer demographic parameters. A stepwise migration-foundation model with founder events was statistically better supported than other four models in both expansion areas. Posterior distributions supported different dynamics of expansion in the studied areas. Populations in the eastern expansion area have a lower stable effective population size and have been founded by a smaller number of individuals than those in the northern expansion area. Once demographically stabilized, populations exchange a substantial number of effective migrants per generation in both expansion areas, and such exchanges are larger in northern than in eastern Australia. The effective number of migrants appears to be considerably lower than that of founders in both expansion areas. We found our inferences to be relatively robust to various assumptions on marker. demographic, and historical features. The method presented here is the only robust, model-based method available so far, which allows inferring complex population dynamics over a short time scale. It also provides the basis for investigating the interplay between population dynamics, drift, and selection in invasive species.

Evidence for selection on coloration in a Panamanian poison frog: a coalescent-based approach

Aim The strawberry poison frog, Oophaga pumilio, has undergone a remarkable radiation of colour morphs in the Bocas del Toro archipelago in Panama. This species shows extreme variation in colour and pattern between populations that have been geographically isolated for < 10,000 years. While previous research has suggested the involvement of divergent selection, to date no quantitative test has examined this hypothesis. Location Bocas del Toro archipelago, Panama. Methods We use a combination of population genetics, phylogeography and phenotypic analyses to test for divergent selection in coloration in O. pumilio. Tissue samples of 88 individuals from 15 distinct populations were collected. Using these data, we developed a gene tree using the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) d-loop region. Using parameters derived from our mtDNA phylogeny, we predicted the coalescence of a hypothetical nuclear gene underlying coloration. We collected spectral reflectance and body size measurements on 94 individuals from four of the populations and performed a quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence. Results The mtDNA d-loop tree revealed considerable polyphyly across populations. Coalescent reconstructions of gene trees within population trees revealed incomplete genotypic sorting among populations. The quantitative analysis of phenotypic divergence revealed complete lineage sorting by colour, but not by body size: populations showed non-overlapping variation in spectral reflectance measures of body coloration, while variation in body size did not separate populations. Simulations of the coalescent using parameter values derived from our empirical analyses demonstrated that the level of sorting among populations seen in colour cannot reasonably be attributed to drift. Main conclusions These results imply that divergence in colour, but not body size, is occurring at a faster rate than expected under neutral processes. Our study provides the first quantitative support for the claim that strong diversifying selection underlies colour variation in the strawberry poison frog.

A preliminary framework for DNA barcoding, incorporating the multispecies coalescent

The capacity to identify an unknown organism using the DNA sequence from a single gene has many applications. These include the development of biodiversity inventories (Janzen et al. 2005), forensics (Meiklejohn et al. 2011), biosecurity (Armstrong and Ball 2005), and the identification of cryptic species (Smith et al. 2006). The popularity and widespread use (Teletchea 2010) of the DNA barcoding approach (Hebert et al. 2003), despite broad misgivings (e.g., Smith 2005; Will et al. 2005; Rubinoff et al. 2006), attest to this. However, one major shortcoming to the standard barcoding approach is that it assumes that gene trees and species trees are synonymous, an assumption that is known not to hold in many cases (Pamilo and Nei 1988; Funk and Omland 2003). Biological processes that violate this assumption include incomplete lineage sorting and interspecific hybridization (Funk and Omland 2003). Indeed, simulation studies indicate that the concatenation approach (in which these two processes are ignored) can lead to statistically inconsistent estimation of the species tree (Kubatko and Degnan 2007)...

Bayesian non-parametrics and the probabilistic approach to modelling.

Modelling is fundamental to many fields of science and engineering. A model can be thought of as a representation of possible data one could predict from a system. The probabilistic approach to modelling uses probability theory to express all aspects of uncertainty in the model. The probabilistic approach is synonymous with Bayesian modelling, which simply uses the rules of probability theory in order to make predictions, compare alternative models, and learn model parameters and structure from data. This simple and elegant framework is most powerful when coupled with flexible probabilistic models. Flexibility is achieved through the use of Bayesian non-parametrics. This article provides an overview of probabilistic modelling and an accessible survey of some of the main tools in Bayesian non-parametrics. The survey covers the use of Bayesian non-parametrics for modelling unknown functions, density estimation, clustering, time-series modelling, and representing sparsity, hierarchies, and covariance structure. More specifically, it gives brief non-technical overviews of Gaussian processes, Dirichlet processes, infinite hidden Markov models, Indian buffet processes, Kingman's coalescent, Dirichlet diffusion trees and Wishart processes.

A coalescent analysis for modeling the mutation process in colorectal cancer

Colorectal cancer is the forth most common diagnosed cancer in the United States. Every year about a hundred forty-seven thousand people will be diagnosed with colorectal cancer and fifty-six thousand people lose their lives due to this disease. Most of the hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) and 12% of the sporadic colorectal cancer show microsatellite instability. Colorectal cancer is a multistep progressive disease. It starts from a mutation in a normal colorectal cell and grows into a clone of cells that further accumulates mutations and finally develops into a malignant tumor. In terms of molecular evolution, the process of colorectal tumor progression represents the acquisition of sequential mutations. ^ Clinical studies use biomarkers such as microsatellite or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to study mutation frequencies in colorectal cancer. Microsatellite data obtained from single genome equivalent PCR or small pool PCR can be used to infer tumor progression. Since tumor progression is similar to population evolution, we used an approach known as coalescent, which is well established in population genetics, to analyze this type of data. Coalescent theory has been known to infer the sample's evolutionary path through the analysis of microsatellite data. ^ The simulation results indicate that the constant population size pattern and the rapid tumor growth pattern have different genetic polymorphic patterns. The simulation results were compared with experimental data collected from HNPCC patients. The preliminary result shows the mutation rate in 6 HNPCC patients range from 0.001 to 0.01. The patients' polymorphic patterns are similar to the constant population size pattern which implies the tumor progression is through multilineage persistence instead of clonal sequential evolution. The results should be further verified using a larger dataset. ^