Variables aleatorias y distribuciones de probabilidad

Variables aleatorias y distribuciones de probabilidad hace referencia a algunas distribuciones de probabilidad. Se recomienda en todo caso para abordar estos temas, tener claras las definiciones, propiedades y axiomas para lograr éxito en la solución de problemas; al final hay una serie de ejercicios propuestos que el lector debe intentar resolver. La colección Lecciones de matemáticas, iniciativa del Departamento de Ciencias Básicas de la Universidad de Medellín, a través de su grupo de investigación SUMMA, incluye en cada número la exposición detallada de un tema matemático, tratado con mayor profundidad que en un curso regular. Las temáticas incluyen: álgebra, trigonometría, cálculo, estadística y probabilidades, álgebra lineal, métodos lineales y numéricos, historia de las matemáticas, geometría, matemáticas puras y aplicadas, ecuaciones diferenciales y empleo de softwares para la enseñanza de las matemáticas.

The multiple sclerosis whole blood mRNA transcriptome and genetic associations indicate dysregulation of specific T cell pathways in pathogenesis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease with a genetic component, caused at least in part by aberrant lymphocyte activity. The whole blood mRNA transcriptome was measured for 99 untreated MS patients: 43 primary progressive MS, 20 secondary progressive MS, 36 relapsing remitting MS and 45 age-matched healthy controls. The ANZgene Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium genotyped more than 300 000 SNPs for 115 of these samples. Transcription from genes on translational regulation, oxidative phosphorylation, immune synapse and antigen presentation pathways was markedly increased in all forms of MS. Expression of genes tagging T cells was also upregulated (P < 10-12) in MS. A T cell gene signature predicts disease state with a concordance index of 0.79 with age and gender as co-variables, but the signature is not associated with clinical course or disability. The ANZgene genome wide association screen identified two novel regions with genome wide significance: one encoding the T cell co-stimulatory molecule, CD40; the other a region on chromosome 12q13-14. The CD40 haplotype associated with increased MS susceptibility has decreased gene expression in MS (P < 0.0007). The second MS susceptibility region includes 17 genes on 12q13-14 in tight linkage disequilibrium. Of these, only 13 are expressed in leukocytes, and of these the expression of one, FAM119B, is much lower in the susceptibility haplotype (P tdthomlt; 10-14). Overall, these data indicate dysregulation of T cells can be detected in the whole blood of untreated MS patients, and supports targeting of activated T cells in therapy for all forms of MS.

Pharmacocinétique de population du propofol chez le chien

La variabilité des concentrations plasmatiques mesurées lors d’une anesthésie générale avec le propofol est directement reliée à une variabilité inter-animale, sa pharmacocinétique. L’objectif de cette étude est de caractériser la pharmacocinétique du propofol et de rechercher les effets des caractéristiques démographiques sur la variation des paramètres pharmacocinétiques. Les chiens (n=44) ayant participé à cette étude ont été anesthésiés au propofol à 6 mois (n=29), 12 (n=21) mois et/ou 24 mois (n=35). L’anesthésie a été induite avec du propofol (en moyenne 5 mg) et maintenue avec une perfusion (débit initial de 360 mg/kg/h). Des ajustements de perfusion ainsi que des bolus supplémentaires seront administrés si le comportement de l’animal l’exige. Une randomisation stratifiée des sexes aux deux groupes de prémédication, le premier recevant de l’acépropmazine (0,05 mg/kg en I.M.) et le deuxième une association d’acépromazine (0.05 mg/kg IM) et de butorphanol (0.1mg/kg IM). Des échantillons sanguins ont été prélevés de t=0 jusqu'à t=300 minutes ou plus. Au total 1339 prélèvements ont été analysés. Un modèle mamillaire à 3 compartiments décrit de manière adéquate nos données. Les valeurs moyennes de CLt V1, CL2, V2, CL3 and V3 sont respectivement égales à 0.65 L/min (SD=0.24), 2.6 L (SD=2.04), 2.24 L/min (1.43), 9.6 L (SD=7.49), 0.42 L/min (SD=0.199), 46.4 L (SD=40.6). Les paramètres pharmacocinétiques obtenus ont révélé une grande variabilité interindividuelle, en particulier CL2, V1, V2 et V3 .Le poids est une co-variable significative pour CLt et V2. L’âge est une co-variable significative pour CL3 et V3. L’ajout de la parenté pour V2 et V3 au modèle a amélioré la qualité de l’ajustement du modèle. Les paramètres V1 et CL2 sont indépendants des facteurs physiologiques étudiés.

Es el reimplante valvular mejor que el bentall biológico modificado para tratar aneurismas de la raíz asociados a insuficiencia?

Es el reimplante valvular mejor que el Bentall Biológico Modificado para tratar aneurismas de la raíz asociados a insuficiencia? Obando CE; Gutiérrez HF; Santamaría G, Bresciani R; Camacho J; Sandoval N; Umaña J. Departamento de Cirugía Cardiovascular, Fundación Cardio Infantil, Bogotá, Colombia. Objetivo: comparar resultados funcionales, morbilidad y sobrevida a corto y mediano plazo, tras la realización de Bentall modificado con prótesis Freestyle vs reimplante valvular de Tirone David, en insuficiencia aortica secundaria a aneurisma de la raíz. Diseño: revisión de registros institucionales de 88 pacientes tratados entre enero de 2003 y agosto de 2009 con insuficiencia aortica secundaria a aneurisma de la raíz sin daño valvular, distribuidos en dos cohortes: Grupo 1 (Bentall modificado) y Grupo 2 (reimplante valvular). Se evaluaron complicaciones perioperatorias, transfusiones, estancias hospitalarias y en el seguimiento a mediano plazo insuficiencia valvular, clase funcional, función ventricular y sobrevida. Solidez de los resultados verificada mediante análisis de propensidad con balanceo de grupos. Resultados: Grupo (1) 51(57.9%) pacientes y grupo (2) 37(42.1%). Aunque el grupo 2 es mas joven, patrones similares de coomorbilidad, anatomía de la raíz, función y diámetros ventriculares hacen comparables los dos grupos. Seguimiento de 3.3 años (IQR 2.0-4.4). Mortalidad temprana 2(3.8%) vs 0 p =0.2 y tardía de 2(4.1%) vs 0 p=0.33. El análisis estratificado de covariables en bloques de distribución tampoco identifica diferencias en mortalidad. El análisis de sobrevida de mortalidad y sobrevida libre de eventos identifica desenlaces similares entre los grupos (Log-Rank chi2=0.9, p=0.3); incluyendo Insuficiencia aortica = II temprana (3.8% vs 0, p=0.2) y tardía (3.8%vs 0, p=0.1), transfusiones perioperatorias, reintervenciones por sangrado (2.3% vs 3.4%, p=0.4), arritmias (25.5% vs 13.5%, p=0.2) y disfunción neurológica (5.7% vs 2.9%, p=0.9). Finalmente la hospitalización total (6.5 {1-35} vs 4{3-16} p=0.001) y estancia en Cuidado intensivo (2.5 {1-21} vs 1{1-16} p=0.001) es superior en el grupo1. Conclusiones: el tratamiento de los aneurismas de la raíz aortica asociados a insuficiencia valvular sin daño estructural, mediante reimplante valvular o Bentall biológico modificado ofrece resultados similares a corto y mediano plazo. La preservación valvular se asocia a estancias mas cortas, pero no hay diferencia en complicaciones postoperatorias, estatus funcional, insuficiencia valvular, función ventricular, mortalidad y sobrevida libre de eventos adversos.

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avaliação de fatores de risco de cães sororreagentes à leptospira spp. e sua distribuição espacial, em área territorial urbana

We aimed to evaluate the risk factor of serum reactive dogs to antileptospire agglutinin and their spatial distribution in an urban area. We collected 1,000 blood samples from dogs at 20 immunization centers, homogeneously distributed in the urban area (32 km²) of Botucatu, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Diagnosis was made by microscopic serum agglutination using 24 serovars of Leptospira spp. Statistical analysis was performed by Goodman's test with 5% of significance. Spatial clusters were tested by spatial scan statistic using SaTScan. We found that 17.9% dogs reacted to Leptospira spp. (p<0.0001). Dogs with street access (22.14%) were more reactive (p<0.05) than those without (14.83%). The scan test indicated only one significant cluster influenced by age. Incorporating each one of the co-variables gender, breed, and street access to age, we found that street access was the most important. Street access and age were the most important risk factors in the large number of reactive animals in the cluster, with the castellonis serovar being the most reactive in urban dogs. The identification of a cluster with more reactive dogs than expected allows local preventive measures to be taken.

Estudio de efectos ambientales y genéticos que influyen en la producción de leche y duración de lactación en bovinos de raza guzerat

Objective of present work was study a influence of environmental and genetic effects over characteristics of milk total production (PL) and lactation duration (DL), from 2572 lactations of 477 Guzerat cows, collected since 1957 to 2002, in Rio de Janeiro State. Environmental effects were analyzed by an statistical model that include male randomized effect, fixed effect of contemporary group, and the (co)variables age of cow (lineal and quadratic) and lactation duration. The contemporary group had significant effect just for PL. Bayesian inference was used to obtain estimatives of genetic parameters over an animal model, in which was included as fixed effect the contemporary group and the covariables age of cow (linear and quadratic). The estimates of heritability and repeatability were 0.36 and 0.75 for PL and 0.29 and 0.36 for DL, respectively. The estimated genetic correlation was 0.97. The heritability estimates for PL and DL were moderate, indicating that it is possible answer to the selection of the characteristics under study. The genetic correlation was high and indicates that selection for increase milk production will be accompanied with increase in lactation duration.

Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para a produção de leite e idade ao primeiro parto em vacas da raça pardo-suiça utilizando amostrador de Gibbs

Registros de 2.981 lactações de vacas da raça Pardo-Suiça, distribuídas em 62 rebanhos, com parições nos anos de 1980 a 2002, foram utilizados para verificar a influência de fatores genéticos e não genéticos, sobre a produção de leite e idade ao primeiro parto. O modelo empregado incluiu os efeitos fixos de rebanho, ano e estação de parto, além dos efeitos aleatórios de animal e ambiente temporário. Para a produção de leite, além dos efeitos fixos descritos anteriormente, incluíram-se também os efeitos linear da duração da lactação e linear e quadrático da idade da vaca ao parto, como co-variáveis. Na estimação dos componentes de (co) variâncias foi utilizada a inferência Bayesiana por meio de amostrador de Gibbs, com tamanho de cadeia de 1.500.000 rounds e período de queima 500.000 rounds. A frequência de amostragem foi de 500 rounds. As médias estimadas para produção de leite e idade ao primeiro parto foram iguais a 5347,47 1849,13 kg e 29,65 4,51 meses, respectivamente. Os efeitos de rebanho, ano de parto e duração da lactação, influenciaram significativamente a produção de leite (P< 0,01). A idade ao primeiro parto foi influenciada pelos efeitos de rebanho, ano de parto (P<0,01), além do efeito de estação de parto (P<0,05). As estimativas de herdabilidade obtidas para a produção de leite e idade ao primeiro parto foram iguais a 0,23 e 0,18, respectivamente. A correlação genética entre as duas foi igual a -0,31. A tendência genética e fenotípica, em função do reprodutor, para produção de leite foi de 1,09 kg e 115,34 kg de leite, respectivamente, para cada ano de produção. Para idade ao primeiro parto, os valores genéticos dos reprodutores tornaram-se negativos a partir de 1988, com redução aproximada de 0,05 meses a cada ano e fenotipicamente verificou-se uma redução de 32 para 28 meses de idade ao primeiro. Filhas de touros com alto valor genético para produção de leite tendem a apresentar crescimento mais acelerado ou maturidade fisiológica a uma idade mais precoce, diminuindo a idade ao primeiro parto.

Oral acetylsalicylic acid and prevalence of actinic keratosis

Objective: To investigate the influence of a regular oral use of acetylsalicylic acid in the prevalence of actinic keratosis.Methods: A case-control study with dermatologic outpatients above 50 years of age assessed between 2009 and 2011. Cases were defined as those who had been under regular use of oral acetylsalicylic acid for more than six consecutive months. The assessment focused on: age, sex, skin-type, tobacco smoking, use of medication, occurrence of individual or family skin cancer, and sunscreen and sun exposure habits. Actinic keratoses were counted in the medial region of the face and upper limbs. Counts were adjusted by co-variables based on a generalized linear model.Results: A total of 74 cases and 216 controls were assessed. The median time of acetylsalicylic acid use was 36 months. Cases differed from controls as to the highest age, highest prevalence of use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and fewer keratosis on the face and on the upper limbs (p < 0.05). The multivariate model showed that the use of acetylsalicylic acid was associated to lower counts of face actinic keratosis and upper-limb erythematous actinic keratosis (p < 0.05), regardless of other risk factors.Conclusion: The regular use of oral acetylsalicylic acid for more than six months was associated to a lower prevalence of actinic keratosis, especially facial and erythematous ones.

Prevalence of iodine intake inadequacy in elderly Brazilian women. A cross-sectional study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estudo longitudinal sobre a prática de aleitamento materno e fatores associados ao desmame precoce

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Linking altered central pain processing and genetic polymorphism to drug efficacy in chronic low back pain.

BACKGROUND Inability to predict the therapeutic effect of a drug in individual pain patients prolongs the process of drug and dose finding until satisfactory pharmacotherapy can be achieved. Many chronic pain conditions are associated with hypersensitivity of the nervous system or impaired endogenous pain modulation. Pharmacotherapy often aims at influencing these disturbed nociceptive processes. Its effect might therefore depend on the extent to which they are altered. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) can evaluate various aspects of pain processing and might therefore be able to predict the analgesic efficacy of a given drug. In the present study three drugs commonly used in the pharmacological management of chronic low back pain are investigated. The primary objective is to examine the ability of QST to predict pain reduction. As a secondary objective, the analgesic effects of these drugs and their effect on QST are evaluated. METHODS/DESIGN In this randomized, double blinded, placebo controlled cross-over study, patients with chronic low back pain are randomly assigned to imipramine, oxycodone or clobazam versus active placebo. QST is assessed at baseline, 1 and 2 h after drug administration. Pain intensity, side effects and patients' global impression of change are assessed in intervals of 30 min up to two hours after drug intake. Baseline QST is used as explanatory variable to predict drug effect. The change in QST over time is analyzed to describe the pharmacodynamic effects of each drug on experimental pain modalities. Genetic polymorphisms are analyzed as co-variables. DISCUSSION Pharmacotherapy is a mainstay in chronic pain treatment. Antidepressants, anticonvulsants and opioids are frequently prescribed in a "trial and error" fashion, without knowledge however, which drug suits best which patient. The present study addresses the important need to translate recent advances in pain research to clinical practice. Assessing the predictive value of central hypersensitivity and endogenous pain modulation could allow for the implementation of a mechanism-based treatment strategy in individual patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01179828.

Estructura espacial y dinámica del bosque montano del sur del Ecuador. Interacciones bióticas y limitaciones abióticas

Muchos estudios han descrito la composición y diversidad de los bosques montanos tropicales, pero los patrones espaciales y las diferentes tipos de relaciones de estos, entre especies o entre grupos funcionales ha sido poco documentada. El presente trabajo se realizó en tres parcelas completamente censadas del bosque de la Estación Biológica “Chamusquin” (Zamora Chinchipe, Ecuador), y se plantea como objetivo principal conocer la estructura espacial y dinámica del bosque montano tropical del sur del Ecuador, así como las interacciones bióticas y limitaciones abióticas que influyen en esta dinámica, para ello se planteó cuatro objetivos de estudio que son: conocer los patrones espaciales de los gremios ecológicos dentro de la zona de estudio; conocer la influencia de la dependencia negativa de la densidad sobre dos especies de helechos arborescentes (Cyatheaceae); conocer si existen especies o grupos ecológicos acumuladoras o repulsoras de diversidad en el área de estudio; y conocer cómo influyen la diversidad filogenética y la densidad del vecindario en la incidencia de herbivoría y parasitismo sobre las fases iniciales del establecimiento forestal (brinzales) así como en la supervivencia de los mismos Como paso previo para el análisis del resto de objetivos, dentro de cada parcela se marcaron todos los individuos con DAP ≥5 cm y se tomaron sus coordenadas (X, Y). Además se tomaron datos de variables superficiales y muestras del suelo. Las especies encontradas se clasificaron de acuerdo a sus características biológicas, asignándolas a cada uno de los cuatro gremios forestales usualmente distinguidos en los bosques tropicales: tolerantes a la sombra (TS), tolerantes parciales a la sombra (TPS), pioneras de vida larga (PVL) y pioneras de vida corta (PVC). Para el estudio del primer objetivo tas se emplearon funciones K de Ripley inhomogéneas, ajustando la heterogeneidad en base a la variación espacial de las variables ambientales registradas . Los resultados demostraron que tanto la frecuencia relativa como el patrón espacial de las diferentes estrategias funcionales varían a lo largo de la sucesión y que éste además está influido por la variación ambiental. En adición, tanto el patrón espacial como la respuesta a la variación ambiental de los diferentes gremios es distinta entre adultos y juveniles. Todo ello sugiere que el ensamblaje de la diversidad en los bosque montanos andinos está controlado por procesos deterministas más que por procesos neutrales. Para responder el segundo objetivo se estudiaron los efectos de la dependencia negativa de la densidad (DND) y la heterogeneidad ambiental en las poblaciones de dos especies de helechos arborescentes abundantes, Cyathea caracasana y Alsophila engelii, y cómo estos efectos cambian a través de un gradiente sucesional. Los patrones de especies albergan información sobre procesos tales como la competencia que puede ser revelado fácilmente utilizando técnicas de análisis de patrones punto. Sin embargo, su detección puede ser difícil debido a los efectos de factores de confusión heterogeneidad del hábitat. Aquí, empleamos funciones K y funciones de correlación de par homogéneas y no homogéneas para cuantificar el cambio en el patrón espacial de diferentes clases de tamaño con un diseño de casos-controles para estudiar las asociaciones entre helechos arborescentes jóvenes y adultos. Usando estimaciones espaciales de la biomasa de los cuatro tipos de gremios ecológicos (PVC, PVL, TPS, TS) como covariables, hemos ajustado modelos de Poisson heterogéneos a los patrones de puntos de de los helechos juveniles y los adultos y hemos explorado además la existencia de dependencia del hábitat en estos patrones. Nuestro estudio reveló efectos de la DND para C. caracasana y un fuerte filtrado ambiental que subyace al patrón de A. engelii. Encontramos también que las poblaciones de adultos y juveniles de ambas especies respondieron de manera diferente a la heterogeneidad del hábitat y en la mayoría de los casos esta heterogeneidad se asoció con la distribución espacial de la biomasa de los cuatro tipos de gremios. Estos resultados muestran la eficacia de controlar los efectos de la heterogeneidad ambiental para evitar su confusión con los patrones derivados de interacciones biológicas cuando se estudia la DND y demuestran la utilidad de los mapas de covariables derivados de comunidades biológicas como resumen de la heterogeneidad ambiental. Para nuestro tercer objetivo nos centramos en explorar cómo influyen las especies más abundantes en la organización espacial de la diversidad a lo largo de un gradiente sucesional en el bosque montano del sur del Ecuador. Para ello utilizamos la función ISAR (Individual Species Area Relationship). Encontramos que la frecuencia de especies neutras, repulsoras y acumuladoras de diversidad taxonómica varía dependiendo del grado de sucesión. Además se comprobó que la mayoría de los gremios forestales se comportó de forma neutral, pero la proporción de acumuladores, aumentó al avanzar la sucesión hacia estados más maduros, lo que indica el establecimiento de fuertes procesos competitivos a medida que avanza la sucesión y la mayor importancia del papel de las especies individuales en dichos estados. Finalmente, examinamos el efecto de la vecindad taxonómica y filogenética, así como la estrategia de vida, sobre la incidencia de la herbivoría y el parasitismo en las poblaciones de brinzales de tres fragmentos forestales en una secuencia sucesional del bosque montano húmedo. Evaluamos además los efectos de herbivoría, parasitismo, estrategia de vida y diferentes indicadores de la vecindad sobre la supervivencia de los brinzales. Por último contrastamos la posible existencia de una tendencia compensatoria de la comunidad (CCT) a nivel de fragmento forestal. Nuestros análisis no consiguieron detectar una CCT pero si pusieron de manifiesto la existencia de efectos locales de dependencia negativa de la densidad. Por ejemplo, la presencia de herbivoría y parasitismo sobre los brinzales se relacionó significativamente con una menor supervivencia de estos. Por otro lado, indicadores del efecto de la vecindad como la densidad de brinzales del mismo género y el área basal de árboles vecinos del mismo género incrementaron la prevalencia de la herbivoría o el parasitismo en los brinzales. El incremento de la incidencia de la herbivoría o el parasitismo no está exclusivamente ligado a tener una vecindad taxonómicamente idéntica (vecinos de la misma especie) sino que categorías taxonómicas más laxas como el "género" o simplemente relaciones de semejanza filogenética son capaces de predecir los efectos negativos de la vecindad. Los efectos detectados variaron en los diferentes grupos funcionales distinguidos. Los resultados que hemos obtenido en este trabajo parecen indicar que el funcionamiento de las comunidades de brinzales del bosque montano tropical no difiere mucho del reportado para comunidades de plántulas en otros bosques tropicales y cumple las predicciones de la hipótesis de Janzen y Connell, aunque matizadas por la mayor resistencia de los brinzales al efecto de herbivoría y parasitismo. ABSTRACT Many studies have described the composition and diversity of tropical montane forests, but the different spatial patterns and types of relationships between species or between functional groups has been poorly documented. This work was made in three completely surveyed forest plots at Biological Station "Chamusquin" (Zamora Chinchipe, Ecuador). Our main objective was to know the spatial structure and dynamics of the tropical montane forest in southern Ecuador, as well as the biotic interactions and abiotic constraints affecting this dynamic. More specifically, we aimed to understand the spatial patterns of ecological guilds; to explore the influence of negative density dependence on two species of tree ferns (Cyatheaceae); to determine whether some species or ecological groups structure spatially plant diversity in these forests; and to test the effects of biological neighborhood on the incidence of herbivory and parasitism and on the survival of saplings. We mapped within each plot all trees with DBH ≥5 cm. Besides, surface data variables and soil samples they were taken. The species found were classified according to their biological characteristics in four forest guilds: shade-tolerant (ST), partial shade tolerant (PST), long-lived pioneer (LLP) and short-lived pioneer (SLP). To analyze the spatial patterns of the ecological guilds, we employed the inhomogeneous version of Ripley's K-function and adjusted heterogeneity surfaces based on the spatial variation of the measured environmental variables. The results showed that both the relative frequency of each functional guild as well as their spatial pattern varied throughout succession and that the spatial pattern is explained by environmental variation. In addition, both spatial pattern and the response to spatial variation of each guild varied throughout ontogeny. All in all suggest that diversity assembly in the studied forests is ruled by deterministic instead of neutral processes. We also addressed the negative effects of density dependence (NDD) and environmental heterogeneity in populations of two species of abundant tree ferns, Cyathea caracasana and Alsophila engelii, and how these effects change across a successional gradient.. Here, we used homogeneous and inhomogeneous K and pair-correlation functions to quantify the change in the spatial pattern of different size classes with a case-control design to study associations between young and adult tree ferns. Using spatial estimates of the biomass of the four types of ecological guilds (SLP, LLP, PST, ST) as co-variables, we fitted heterogeneous Poisson models to juvenile and adult tree fern point patterns and explored the existence of habitat dependence. Our study revealed NDD effects for C. caracasana and strong environmental filtering underlying the pattern of A. engelii. We found that adult and juvenile populations of both species responded differently to habitat heterogeneity and in most cases this heterogeneity was associated with the spatial distribution of biomass of the four functional tree types. These findings show the effectiveness of factoring out environmental heterogeneity to avoid confounding factors when studying NDD and demonstrate the usefulness of covariate maps derived from mapped communities. For our third objective we focused on exploring how the most abundant species influence the spatial organization of tree diversity in these forests. For this, we used the individual species-area relationship function (ISAR). We found that the proportion of accumulator, repeller and neutral species, varied depending on the degree of succession. We found also that most guilds behaved neutrally but the proportion of accumulator guilds increased as succession advanced to more mature stages. This point, to the existence of strong competitive effects mediated by individual species in these mature forests. Finally, we examined the effects of life strategies and taxonomic and phylogenetic neighborhood on the incidence of herbivory and parasitism in the communities of saplings in the same forest fragments. We evaluated also the effects of life strategies, herbivory, parasitism and some indicators of neighborhood on sapling survival. Finally we tested for the existences of a compensatory community trend at plot scale. We did not found a CCT but we found proof of local NND effects. For instance, the prevalence of herbivory and parasitism were related to lower sapling survival. On the other hand the density of con-generic saplings and the basal area of neighbor con-generic trees were related to a higher prevalence of herbivory or parasitism in the saplings. We demonstrated that the increase in the prevalence of herbivory or parasitism it s not exclusive of a conspecific neighborhood but instead larger taxonomic categories such as "genus" or simple phylogenetic relationships are also able to predict NND effects. The NND effects varied among functional guilds. Our results show that the dynamic of sapling communities in Ecuadorian montane forests is similar to seedling dynamics in other tropical forest and follows the predictions of Janzen-Connell hypothesis, although softened by the strong resilience of saplings in comparison to seedlings.