Variables aleatorias y distribuciones de probabilidad

Variables aleatorias y distribuciones de probabilidad hace referencia a algunas distribuciones de probabilidad. Se recomienda en todo caso para abordar estos temas, tener claras las definiciones, propiedades y axiomas para lograr éxito en la solución de problemas; al final hay una serie de ejercicios propuestos que el lector debe intentar resolver. La colección Lecciones de matemáticas, iniciativa del Departamento de Ciencias Básicas de la Universidad de Medellín, a través de su grupo de investigación SUMMA, incluye en cada número la exposición detallada de un tema matemático, tratado con mayor profundidad que en un curso regular. Las temáticas incluyen: álgebra, trigonometría, cálculo, estadística y probabilidades, álgebra lineal, métodos lineales y numéricos, historia de las matemáticas, geometría, matemáticas puras y aplicadas, ecuaciones diferenciales y empleo de softwares para la enseñanza de las matemáticas.

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance functions using random regression models on Legendre polynomials for the analysis of repeated measures of BW from birth to adult age. A total of 82,064 records from 8,145 females were analyzed. Different models were compared. The models included additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random terms. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of animal age (cubic regression) were considered as random co-variables. Eight models with polynomials of third to sixth order were used to describe additive direct and maternal effects, and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects. Residual effects were modeled using 1 (i.e., assuming homogeneity of variances across all ages) or 5 age classes. The model with 5 classes was the best to describe the trajectory of residuals along the growth curve. The model including fourth- and sixth-order polynomials for additive direct and animal permanent environmental effects, respectively, and third-order polynomials for maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects were the best. Estimates of (co) variance obtained with the multi-trait and random regression models were similar. Direct heritability estimates obtained with the random regression models followed a trend similar to that obtained with the multi-trait model. The largest estimates of maternal heritability were those of BW taken close to 240 d of age. In general, estimates of correlation between BW from birth to 8 yr of age decreased with increasing distance between ages.

O estresse ocupacional do professor do ensino superior: a relação entre os sintomas de estresse e a atividade docente em duas instituições de ensino superior da cidade de Teresina-pi

RESUMO: Com a globalização e as mudanças provenientes da mesma, o ser humano vem sofrendo com o estresse ao tentar se adaptar e acompanhar tais acontecimentos seja no âmbito familiar, social, afetivo e profissional. Para desempenhar as funções docentes do ensino superior, são exigidas diversas condições, e o professor sofre um desgaste físico e psicológico ao tentar suprir determinadas demandas, o que em muitos casos, ocasiona o estresse ocupacional. Com o propósito de aprofundar conhecimentos sobre a relação existente entre o estresse e a atividade docente, fizemos o seguinte questionamento: quais os sintomas de estresse apresentados em professores do ensino superior? Com Objetivo geral de estudar os sintomas e níveis de estresse, relacionando-os à carreira docente do ensino superior, com as variáveis: regime de trabalho, vínculo institucional, idade, sexo, tempo de trabalho, tipo de IES, em uma população específica pertencente a duas Instituições de Ensino Superior -IES da cidade de Teresina, Estado do Piauí- Brasil, sendo uma pública e uma privada. Visando atingir os objetivos propostos, utilizamos da metodologia de caráter exploratório e descritivo, com abordagem quantitativa dos dados recorrendo à estatística descritiva. O instrumento de coleta de dados utilizado foi o “Inventário de Sintomas de Stress Lipp – ISSL” da autora Marilda Lipp (2000), aplicado em uma amostra de cem (100) professores, com idade entre 22 e 55 anos de idade. Mediante a análise dos dados, pode-se verificar que apesar das diferenças existentes entre IES públicas e privadas, a maioria dos resultados foram semelhantes. Em ambas as IES houve presença de estresse nos docentes, prevalecendo a fase de alerta, logo após a fase de resistência, em seguida a fase de quase-exaustão,Houve um predomínio de sintomas psicológicos, onde na IES privada se destacam: aumento súbito de motivação e entusiasmo súbito. E como sintomas físicos: boca seca e nó no estômago. Na IES públicas os sintomas psicológicos foram: entusiasmo súbito e aumento súbito de motivação. E físicos: tensão muscular e nó no estômago. Em relação as co-variáveis que apresentaram maior relação com o estresse pode-se apresentar na IES privada o sexo masculino e feminino possuem a mesma representatividade, a faixa etária de 31 a 39 anos, estado civil casado, tempo de serviço de 7 a 13 anos, jornada de trabalho integral e vínculo efetivo. Já na IES pública verifica-se relação com o sexo feminino, idade variando de 31 a 39 anos, estado civil solteiro, tempo de serviço de 7 a 13 anos, jornada de trabalho parcial e vínculo substituto. De acordo com o que foi analisado, percebe-se que os docentes do ensino superior, independente do tipo de IES ao qual estão vinculados, estão sujeitos ao estresse e que estes não devem ser responsabilizados pelo mesmo, nem por adoção de medidas preventivas, visto que toda a IES sofre as conseqüências, e tem condições de auxiliar o professor com situações preventivas, de controle a partir do conhecimento, interpretação e mudança de hábitos do professor no ambiente universitário. ABSTRACT: With globalization and its changes, the human being has suffered from stress while trying to adapt and monitor such events, within family, social, emotional or professional scope. To play as teacher in higher education, they are required various conditions and the teacher suffers physical and psychological wear trying to meet certain demands, which in many cases leads to occupational stress.Aiming to deepen knowledge about the relationship between stress and teaching activities, we made the following question: what are the symptoms of stress presented by higher education teachers? With the general objective of study the symptoms and the stress levels, linking them to the teaching career in higher education, using the following variables: working regime, institutional link, age, sex, working time, type of HEI, in a specific population belongs to two Higher Education Institutions HEI - of Teresina, Piauí, Brazil, one public and one private. Aiming to achieve the proposed objectives, we used a exploratory - descriptive study, with quantitative approach of data using graphs and tables. The data collection instrument used was the "Lipp Stress Symptoms Inventory - ISSL" by the author Marilda Lipp (2000), applied to a sample of a hundred (100) teachers, between 22 and 55 years of age. Through data analysis, despite the differences between public and private HEIs, we can see that the most results were similar. In both HEIs, the results revealed that the alert phase of stress had prevailed, followed by resistance and almost-exhaustion phases. A small number presented stress in exhaustion phase and another group did not present stress. There was a predominance of psychological symptoms, which in private HEIs stands out: increase of motivation and enthusiasm suddenly. And as physical symptoms: dry mouth and stomached. In public HEI, psychological symptoms were sudden enthusiasm and increse of motivation. And physical symptoms: muscle tension and stomached. In relation to the co-variables that showed a greater relationship with stress, in private HEIs males and females have the same representation, between 31-39 years, married, working time of 7-13 years, full working day and effective link. Already in public HEIs, female, between 31-39 years, unmarried, working time of 7-13 years, partial working day and substitute link had prevailed. According to analysis, we find that teachers in higher education, regardless of the HEI to which they are linked, are subject to stress. And they should not be blamed for the onset of stress, neither by adopting preventive measures, since all the HEI suffers the consequences, and it is able to help teachers with preventive measures based on the knowledge, interpretation and change habits of the teacher in the university environment.

Depressive symptoms in institutionalized older adults

OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of depressive symptoms among institutionalized elderly individuals and to analyze factors associated with this condition. METHODS This was a cross-sectional study involving 462 individuals aged 60 or older, residents in long stay institutions in four Brazilian municipalities. The dependent variable was assessed using the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale. Poisson’s regression was used to evaluate associations with co-variables. We investigated which variables were most relevant in terms of presence of depressive symptoms within the studied context through factor analysis. RESULTS Prevalence of depressive symptoms was 48.7%. The variables associated with depressive symptoms were: regular/bad/very bad self-rated health; comorbidities; hospitalizations; and lack of friends in the institution. Five components accounted for 49.2% of total variance of the sample: functioning, social support, sensory deficiency, institutionalization and health conditions. In the factor analysis, functionality and social support were the components which explained a large part of observed variance. CONCLUSIONS A high prevalence of depressive symptoms, with significant variation in distribution, was observed. Such results emphasize the importance of health conditions and functioning for institutionalized older individuals developing depression. They also point to the importance of providing opportunities for interaction among institutionalized individuals.

Evaluation of long term persistence of Diabetes Mellitus Type II treatment newly diagnosed patients in Lisbon and Tagus health administration region : a three year follow up study

RESUMO: Raional: A persistência à terapêutica é o tempo em qualquer antidiabético oral, desde o seu início até à descontinuação de todas as medicações ou até ao fim do período do estudo. Os objetivos deste estudo foi a análise da persistência à terapêutica no segundo e terceiro anos após início do tratamento em doentes adultos diagnosticados na região de Lisboa e Vale do Tejo e determinar o efeito de determinadas variáveis na persistência a longo prazo. Métodos: Um estudo retrospetivo não interventivo foi desenhado com base nos dados a obter do SIARS (prescrições e aquisições na farmácia) e Pordata. A persistência foi quantificada como a percentagem de doentes que continuam a adquirir pelo menos um antidiabético oral ao segundo e terceiro anos após a compra da primeira receita. A associação entre a persistência e o segundo e terceiro anos com cada uma das co-variáveis foi aferido pelo teste qui-quadrado e os odd ratios foram calculados com recurso a um modelo de regressão logística. Resultados: A persistência à terapêutica obtida foi de 80% e 62% para o segundo e terceiro anos após início da terapêutica. Odd ratios para primeiro e segundo ano: número de grupos farmacoterapêuticos diferentes (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); idade (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); sexo (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); número de diferentes prescritores (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); instituição de prescrição (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relação com o médico (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) e custo médio mensal por grupo farmacoterapêutico (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusões: O valor da persistência à terapêutica no segundo ano é ligeiramente acima do que é mencionado na literatura e não existem dados para comparar os resultados do terceiro ano. Relativamente ao efeito das co-variáveis no segundo e terceiro anos após o início do tratamento, os resultados são sobreponíveis, sendo que o sexo não está associado à persistência ao terceiro ano.----------------------------------ABSTRACT: Background: Therapy persistence is the time on any antidiabetic medication, from initiation of therapy to discontinuation of all medications or the end of the study period. The aim of the study was to analyse the therapy persistence in the second and third years after treatment initiation in newly diagnosed adult patients in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and to determine the effect of several co-variables in the long term persistence. Methods: A retrospective non-interventional study based on SIARS data (drug prescriptions and acquisitions) and Pordata was designed. Persistence was quantified as the percentage of patients that continued to purchase at least one type of antidiabetic at year 2 and 3 after the date of first prescription acquisition. Association between persistence at second and third years with each of the other co-variables were verified by using the Chi-Square test and odds ratio were calculated using a regression logistic model. Results: Therapy persistence obtained was 80% and 62% for the second and third years after treatment initiation. Odd ratios for second and third years: number of different pharmacotherapeutic groups (OR = 2.167, 1.807 – 2.598, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.863, 1.621 – 2.142, p = 0.000); age (OR = 0.914, 0.772 – 1.081, p = 0.294 / OR = 0.875, 0.764 – 1.002, p = 0.054); gender (OR = 1.163, 0.983 – 1.377, p = 0.079); number of different prescribers (OR = 3.594, 3.030 – 4.262, p = 0.000 / OR = 2.167, 1.886 – 2.491, p = 0.000); institution of prescription (OR = 0.725, 0.698 – 0.753, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.683, 0.650 – 0.717, p = 0.000); pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 1.056, 1.043 – 1.069, p = 0.000 / OR = 1.077, 1.060 – 1.095, p = 0.000); relationship with the physician (OR = 0.834, 0.816 – 0.852, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.799, 0.777 – 0.821, p = 0.000) and average cost per month and per pharmacotherapeutic group (OR = 0.954, 0.942 – 0.968, p = 0.000 / OR = 0.930, 0.914 – 0.947, p = 0.000). Conclusions: Second year therapy persistence value is slightly above of what is referenced in literature and no data was found to compare the third year value. Regarding the effect of the co-variables analysed at second and third years after treatment initiation, the results were overlapping with gender being not associated with persistence at the third year.

Calliphorid fly (Diptera, Calliphoridae) attraction to different colored traps in the Tingua Biological Reserve, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The present study intended to analyze calliphorid attraction to traps painted in a variety of colors and the calliphorid constancy index in the Tingua Biological Reserve, Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil. The Diptera were collected monthly in the Reserve, between 2002 and 2005, totaling 24 samplings. Four traps containing sardines as bait were painted olive green, blood red, black, or white and exposed for 48 h at four equidistant points, 50 m from each other. To determine the calliphorid species constancy, the Bodenheirmer constancy index was used throughout the study. To analyze differences in the total abundance between species and in their color selection, an ANCOVA test with a significance level of 5 % and a Tukey post-test were used, considering the categories species and color as cofactors and climatic variables as co-variables (temperature, relative humidity and precipitation), since the samples were collected over two years. 10,444 insects were captured. Of these, 56 % belonged to the Calliphoridae family, totaling 13 species, with the most frequent species being Laneela nigripes (28.5 %), Hemilucilia semidiaphana (17 %), and Mesembrinella sp. (16.4 %). The other species had frequencies lower than 12 %. Nine species were considered constant, two accessories, and two accidental. The data indicated that the most frequent species presented significant differences between themselves concerning abundance over the captured months, however, the Tukey post-test indicated differences only between a few of them. The black trap presented the higher relative calliphorid frequency (27.34 %), followed by green (25 %), red (24.0 %), and white (23.7 %), although the species abundance in the different colored traps did not differ significantly among themselves. Therefore, there was no Calliphorid flies preference for any of the tested colors.

Alcohol intake and the risk of coronary heart disease in the Spanish EPIC

Background: The association between alcohol consumption and coronary heart disease (CHD) has been widely studied. Most of these studies have concluded that moderate alcohol intake reduces the risk of CHD. There are numerous discussions regarding whether this association is causal or biased. The objective of this paper is to analyse the association between alcohol intake and CHD risk in the Spanish cohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC). Methods: Participants from the EPIC Spanish cohort were included (15 630 men and 25 808 women). The median follow-up period was 10 years. Ethanol intake was calculated using a validated dietary history questionnaire. Participants with a definite CHD event were considered cases. A Cox regression model adjusted for relevant co-variables and stratified by age was produced. Separate models were carried out for men and women. Results: The crude CHD incidence rate was 300.6/100 000 person-years for men and 47.9/100 000 person-years for women. Moderate, high and very high consumption was associated with a reduced risk of CHD in men: hazard ratio 0.90 (95% CI 0.56 to 1.44) for former drinkers, 0.65 (95% CI 0.41 to 1.04) for low, 0.49 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.76) for moderate, 0.46 (95% CI 0.30 to 0.71) for high and 0.50 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.85) for very high consumers. A negative association was found in women, with p values above 0.05 in all categories. Conclusions: Alcohol intake in men aged 29–69 years was associated with a more than 30% lower CHD incidence. This study is based on a large prospective cohort study and is free of the abstainer error.

Reliability of methods used for the risk assessment of mixture of micropollutants in aquatic enviromments : from theoretical concepts to field observations

Ces dernières années, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques des micropolluants organiques pour les espèces de nos lacs et rivières. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, alors que les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange. Or les effets de ces cocktails ne sont pas négligeables. Cette thèse de doctorat s'est ainsi intéressée aux modèles permettant de prédire le risque environnemental de ces cocktails pour le milieu aquatique. Le principal objectif a été d'évaluer le risque écologique des mélanges de substances chimiques mesurées dans le Léman, mais aussi d'apporter un regard critique sur les méthodologies utilisées afin de proposer certaines adaptations pour une meilleure estimation du risque. Dans la première partie de ce travail, le risque des mélanges de pesticides et médicaments pour le Rhône et pour le Léman a été établi en utilisant des approches envisagées notamment dans la législation européenne. Il s'agit d'approches de « screening », c'est-à-dire permettant une évaluation générale du risque des mélanges. Une telle approche permet de mettre en évidence les substances les plus problématiques, c'est-à-dire contribuant le plus à la toxicité du mélange. Dans notre cas, il s'agit essentiellement de 4 pesticides. L'étude met également en évidence que toutes les substances, même en trace infime, contribuent à l'effet du mélange. Cette constatation a des implications en terme de gestion de l'environnement. En effet, ceci implique qu'il faut réduire toutes les sources de polluants, et pas seulement les plus problématiques. Mais l'approche proposée présente également un biais important au niveau conceptuel, ce qui rend son utilisation discutable, en dehors d'un screening, et nécessiterait une adaptation au niveau des facteurs de sécurité employés. Dans une deuxième partie, l'étude s'est portée sur l'utilisation des modèles de mélanges dans le calcul de risque environnemental. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés espèce par espèce, et non pour une évaluation sur l'écosystème en entier. Leur utilisation devrait donc passer par un calcul par espèce, ce qui est rarement fait dû au manque de données écotoxicologiques à disposition. Le but a été donc de comparer, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon une méthode rigoureuse, espèce par espèce, avec celui effectué classiquement où les modèles sont appliqués sur l'ensemble de la communauté sans tenir compte des variations inter-espèces. Les résultats sont dans la majorité des cas similaires, ce qui valide l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. En revanche, ce travail a permis de déterminer certains cas où l'application classique peut conduire à une sous- ou sur-estimation du risque. Enfin, une dernière partie de cette thèse s'est intéressée à l'influence que les cocktails de micropolluants ont pu avoir sur les communautés in situ. Pour ce faire, une approche en deux temps a été adoptée. Tout d'abord la toxicité de quatorze herbicides détectés dans le Léman a été déterminée. Sur la période étudiée, de 2004 à 2009, cette toxicité due aux herbicides a diminué, passant de 4% d'espèces affectées à moins de 1%. Ensuite, la question était de savoir si cette diminution de toxicité avait un impact sur le développement de certaines espèces au sein de la communauté des algues. Pour ce faire, l'utilisation statistique a permis d'isoler d'autres facteurs pouvant avoir une influence sur la flore, comme la température de l'eau ou la présence de phosphates, et ainsi de constater quelles espèces se sont révélées avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps. Fait intéressant, une partie d'entre-elles avait déjà montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. En conclusion, ce travail montre qu'il existe des modèles robustes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques, et qu'ils peuvent être utilisés pour expliquer le rôle des substances dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application. - Depuis plusieurs années, les risques que posent les micropolluants organiques pour le milieu aquatique préoccupent grandement les scientifiques ainsi que notre société. En effet, de nombreuses recherches ont mis en évidence les effets toxiques que peuvent avoir ces substances chimiques sur les espèces de nos lacs et rivières, quand elles se retrouvent exposées à des concentrations aiguës ou chroniques. Cependant, la plupart de ces études se sont focalisées sur la toxicité des substances individuelles, c'est à dire considérées séparément. Actuellement, il en est de même dans les procédures de régulation européennes, concernant la partie évaluation du risque pour l'environnement d'une substance. Or, les organismes sont exposés tous les jours à des milliers de substances en mélange, et les effets de ces "cocktails" ne sont pas négligeables. L'évaluation du risque écologique que pose ces mélanges de substances doit donc être abordé par de la manière la plus appropriée et la plus fiable possible. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, nous nous sommes intéressés aux méthodes actuellement envisagées à être intégrées dans les législations européennes pour l'évaluation du risque des mélanges pour le milieu aquatique. Ces méthodes sont basées sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations, avec l'utilisation des valeurs de concentrations des substances estimées sans effet dans le milieu (PNEC), ou à partir des valeurs des concentrations d'effet (CE50) sur certaines espèces d'un niveau trophique avec la prise en compte de facteurs de sécurité. Nous avons appliqué ces méthodes à deux cas spécifiques, le lac Léman et le Rhône situés en Suisse, et discuté les résultats de ces applications. Ces premières étapes d'évaluation ont montré que le risque des mélanges pour ces cas d'étude atteint rapidement une valeur au dessus d'un seuil critique. Cette valeur atteinte est généralement due à deux ou trois substances principales. Les procédures proposées permettent donc d'identifier les substances les plus problématiques pour lesquelles des mesures de gestion, telles que la réduction de leur entrée dans le milieu aquatique, devraient être envisagées. Cependant, nous avons également constaté que le niveau de risque associé à ces mélanges de substances n'est pas négligeable, même sans tenir compte de ces substances principales. En effet, l'accumulation des substances, même en traces infimes, atteint un seuil critique, ce qui devient plus difficile en terme de gestion du risque. En outre, nous avons souligné un manque de fiabilité dans ces procédures, qui peuvent conduire à des résultats contradictoires en terme de risque. Ceci est lié à l'incompatibilité des facteurs de sécurité utilisés dans les différentes méthodes. Dans la deuxième partie de la thèse, nous avons étudié la fiabilité de méthodes plus avancées dans la prédiction de l'effet des mélanges pour les communautés évoluant dans le système aquatique. Ces méthodes reposent sur le modèle d'addition des concentrations (CA) ou d'addition des réponses (RA) appliqués sur les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces (SSD) aux substances. En effet, les modèles de mélanges ont été développés et validés pour être appliqués espèce par espèce, et non pas sur plusieurs espèces agrégées simultanément dans les courbes SSD. Nous avons ainsi proposé une procédure plus rigoureuse, pour l'évaluation du risque d'un mélange, qui serait d'appliquer d'abord les modèles CA ou RA à chaque espèce séparément, et, dans une deuxième étape, combiner les résultats afin d'établir une courbe SSD du mélange. Malheureusement, cette méthode n'est pas applicable dans la plupart des cas, car elle nécessite trop de données généralement indisponibles. Par conséquent, nous avons comparé, avec des valeurs générées aléatoirement, le calcul de risque effectué selon cette méthode plus rigoureuse, avec celle effectuée traditionnellement, afin de caractériser la robustesse de cette approche qui consiste à appliquer les modèles de mélange sur les courbes SSD. Nos résultats ont montré que l'utilisation de CA directement sur les SSDs peut conduire à une sous-estimation de la concentration du mélange affectant 5 % ou 50% des espèces, en particulier lorsque les substances présentent un grand écart- type dans leur distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. L'application du modèle RA peut quant à lui conduire à une sur- ou sous-estimations, principalement en fonction de la pente des courbes dose- réponse de chaque espèce composant les SSDs. La sous-estimation avec RA devient potentiellement importante lorsque le rapport entre la EC50 et la EC10 de la courbe dose-réponse des espèces est plus petit que 100. Toutefois, la plupart des substances, selon des cas réels, présentent des données d' écotoxicité qui font que le risque du mélange calculé par la méthode des modèles appliqués directement sur les SSDs reste cohérent et surestimerait plutôt légèrement le risque. Ces résultats valident ainsi l'approche utilisée traditionnellement. Néanmoins, il faut garder à l'esprit cette source d'erreur lorsqu'on procède à une évaluation du risque d'un mélange avec cette méthode traditionnelle, en particulier quand les SSD présentent une distribution des données en dehors des limites déterminées dans cette étude. Enfin, dans la dernière partie de cette thèse, nous avons confronté des prédictions de l'effet de mélange avec des changements biologiques observés dans l'environnement. Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé des données venant d'un suivi à long terme d'un grand lac européen, le lac Léman, ce qui offrait la possibilité d'évaluer dans quelle mesure la prédiction de la toxicité des mélanges d'herbicide expliquait les changements dans la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique. Ceci à côté d'autres paramètres classiques de limnologie tels que les nutriments. Pour atteindre cet objectif, nous avons déterminé la toxicité des mélanges sur plusieurs années de 14 herbicides régulièrement détectés dans le lac, en utilisant les modèles CA et RA avec les courbes de distribution de la sensibilité des espèces. Un gradient temporel de toxicité décroissant a pu être constaté de 2004 à 2009. Une analyse de redondance et de redondance partielle, a montré que ce gradient explique une partie significative de la variation de la composition de la communauté phytoplanctonique, même après avoir enlevé l'effet de toutes les autres co-variables. De plus, certaines espèces révélées pour avoir été influencées, positivement ou négativement, par la diminution de la toxicité dans le lac au fil du temps, ont montré des comportements similaires dans des études en mésocosmes. On peut en conclure que la toxicité du mélange herbicide est l'un des paramètres clés pour expliquer les changements de phytoplancton dans le lac Léman. En conclusion, il existe diverses méthodes pour prédire le risque des mélanges de micropolluants sur les espèces aquatiques et celui-ci peut jouer un rôle dans le fonctionnement des écosystèmes. Toutefois, ces modèles ont bien sûr des limites et des hypothèses sous-jacentes qu'il est important de considérer lors de leur application, avant d'utiliser leurs résultats pour la gestion des risques environnementaux. - For several years now, the scientists as well as the society is concerned by the aquatic risk organic micropollutants may pose. Indeed, several researches have shown the toxic effects these substances may induce on organisms living in our lakes or rivers, especially when they are exposed to acute or chronic concentrations. However, most of the studies focused on the toxicity of single compounds, i.e. considered individually. The same also goes in the current European regulations concerning the risk assessment procedures for the environment of these substances. But aquatic organisms are typically exposed every day simultaneously to thousands of organic compounds. The toxic effects resulting of these "cocktails" cannot be neglected. The ecological risk assessment of mixtures of such compounds has therefore to be addressed by scientists in the most reliable and appropriate way. In the first part of this thesis, the procedures currently envisioned for the aquatic mixture risk assessment in European legislations are described. These methodologies are based on the mixture model of concentration addition and the use of the predicted no effect concentrations (PNEC) or effect concentrations (EC50) with assessment factors. These principal approaches were applied to two specific case studies, Lake Geneva and the River Rhône in Switzerland, including a discussion of the outcomes of such applications. These first level assessments showed that the mixture risks for these studied cases exceeded rapidly the critical value. This exceeding is generally due to two or three main substances. The proposed procedures allow therefore the identification of the most problematic substances for which management measures, such as a reduction of the entrance to the aquatic environment, should be envisioned. However, it was also showed that the risk levels associated with mixtures of compounds are not negligible, even without considering these main substances. Indeed, it is the sum of the substances that is problematic, which is more challenging in term of risk management. Moreover, a lack of reliability in the procedures was highlighted, which can lead to contradictory results in terms of risk. This result is linked to the inconsistency in the assessment factors applied in the different methods. In the second part of the thesis, the reliability of the more advanced procedures to predict the mixture effect to communities in the aquatic system were investigated. These established methodologies combine the model of concentration addition (CA) or response addition (RA) with species sensitivity distribution curves (SSD). Indeed, the mixture effect predictions were shown to be consistent only when the mixture models are applied on a single species, and not on several species simultaneously aggregated to SSDs. Hence, A more stringent procedure for mixture risk assessment is proposed, that would be to apply first the CA or RA models to each species separately and, in a second step, to combine the results to build an SSD for a mixture. Unfortunately, this methodology is not applicable in most cases, because it requires large data sets usually not available. Therefore, the differences between the two methodologies were studied with datasets created artificially to characterize the robustness of the traditional approach applying models on species sensitivity distribution. The results showed that the use of CA on SSD directly might lead to underestimations of the mixture concentration affecting 5% or 50% of species, especially when substances present a large standard deviation of the distribution from the sensitivity of the species. The application of RA can lead to over- or underestimates, depending mainly on the slope of the dose-response curves of the individual species. The potential underestimation with RA becomes important when the ratio between the EC50 and the EC10 for the dose-response curve of the species composing the SSD are smaller than 100. However, considering common real cases of ecotoxicity data for substances, the mixture risk calculated by the methodology applying mixture models directly on SSDs remains consistent and would rather slightly overestimate the risk. These results can be used as a theoretical validation of the currently applied methodology. Nevertheless, when assessing the risk of mixtures, one has to keep in mind this source of error with this classical methodology, especially when SSDs present a distribution of the data outside the range determined in this study Finally, in the last part of this thesis, we confronted the mixture effect predictions with biological changes observed in the environment. In this study, long-term monitoring of a European great lake, Lake Geneva, provides the opportunity to assess to what extent the predicted toxicity of herbicide mixtures explains the changes in the composition of the phytoplankton community next to other classical limnology parameters such as nutrients. To reach this goal, the gradient of the mixture toxicity of 14 herbicides regularly detected in the lake was calculated, using concentration addition and response addition models. A decreasing temporal gradient of toxicity was observed from 2004 to 2009. Redundancy analysis and partial redundancy analysis showed that this gradient explains a significant portion of the variation in phytoplankton community composition, even when having removed the effect of all other co-variables. Moreover, some species that were revealed to be influenced positively or negatively, by the decrease of toxicity in the lake over time, showed similar behaviors in mesocosms studies. It could be concluded that the herbicide mixture toxicity is one of the key parameters to explain phytoplankton changes in Lake Geneva. To conclude, different methods exist to predict the risk of mixture in the ecosystems. But their reliability varies depending on the underlying hypotheses. One should therefore carefully consider these hypotheses, as well as the limits of the approaches, before using the results for environmental risk management

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

Pharmacocinétique de population du propofol chez le chien

La variabilité des concentrations plasmatiques mesurées lors d’une anesthésie générale avec le propofol est directement reliée à une variabilité inter-animale, sa pharmacocinétique. L’objectif de cette étude est de caractériser la pharmacocinétique du propofol et de rechercher les effets des caractéristiques démographiques sur la variation des paramètres pharmacocinétiques. Les chiens (n=44) ayant participé à cette étude ont été anesthésiés au propofol à 6 mois (n=29), 12 (n=21) mois et/ou 24 mois (n=35). L’anesthésie a été induite avec du propofol (en moyenne 5 mg) et maintenue avec une perfusion (débit initial de 360 mg/kg/h). Des ajustements de perfusion ainsi que des bolus supplémentaires seront administrés si le comportement de l’animal l’exige. Une randomisation stratifiée des sexes aux deux groupes de prémédication, le premier recevant de l’acépropmazine (0,05 mg/kg en I.M.) et le deuxième une association d’acépromazine (0.05 mg/kg IM) et de butorphanol (0.1mg/kg IM). Des échantillons sanguins ont été prélevés de t=0 jusqu'à t=300 minutes ou plus. Au total 1339 prélèvements ont été analysés. Un modèle mamillaire à 3 compartiments décrit de manière adéquate nos données. Les valeurs moyennes de CLt V1, CL2, V2, CL3 and V3 sont respectivement égales à 0.65 L/min (SD=0.24), 2.6 L (SD=2.04), 2.24 L/min (1.43), 9.6 L (SD=7.49), 0.42 L/min (SD=0.199), 46.4 L (SD=40.6). Les paramètres pharmacocinétiques obtenus ont révélé une grande variabilité interindividuelle, en particulier CL2, V1, V2 et V3 .Le poids est une co-variable significative pour CLt et V2. L’âge est une co-variable significative pour CL3 et V3. L’ajout de la parenté pour V2 et V3 au modèle a amélioré la qualité de l’ajustement du modèle. Les paramètres V1 et CL2 sont indépendants des facteurs physiologiques étudiés.

Es el reimplante valvular mejor que el bentall biológico modificado para tratar aneurismas de la raíz asociados a insuficiencia?

Es el reimplante valvular mejor que el Bentall Biológico Modificado para tratar aneurismas de la raíz asociados a insuficiencia? Obando CE; Gutiérrez HF; Santamaría G, Bresciani R; Camacho J; Sandoval N; Umaña J. Departamento de Cirugía Cardiovascular, Fundación Cardio Infantil, Bogotá, Colombia. Objetivo: comparar resultados funcionales, morbilidad y sobrevida a corto y mediano plazo, tras la realización de Bentall modificado con prótesis Freestyle vs reimplante valvular de Tirone David, en insuficiencia aortica secundaria a aneurisma de la raíz. Diseño: revisión de registros institucionales de 88 pacientes tratados entre enero de 2003 y agosto de 2009 con insuficiencia aortica secundaria a aneurisma de la raíz sin daño valvular, distribuidos en dos cohortes: Grupo 1 (Bentall modificado) y Grupo 2 (reimplante valvular). Se evaluaron complicaciones perioperatorias, transfusiones, estancias hospitalarias y en el seguimiento a mediano plazo insuficiencia valvular, clase funcional, función ventricular y sobrevida. Solidez de los resultados verificada mediante análisis de propensidad con balanceo de grupos. Resultados: Grupo (1) 51(57.9%) pacientes y grupo (2) 37(42.1%). Aunque el grupo 2 es mas joven, patrones similares de coomorbilidad, anatomía de la raíz, función y diámetros ventriculares hacen comparables los dos grupos. Seguimiento de 3.3 años (IQR 2.0-4.4). Mortalidad temprana 2(3.8%) vs 0 p =0.2 y tardía de 2(4.1%) vs 0 p=0.33. El análisis estratificado de covariables en bloques de distribución tampoco identifica diferencias en mortalidad. El análisis de sobrevida de mortalidad y sobrevida libre de eventos identifica desenlaces similares entre los grupos (Log-Rank chi2=0.9, p=0.3); incluyendo Insuficiencia aortica = II temprana (3.8% vs 0, p=0.2) y tardía (3.8%vs 0, p=0.1), transfusiones perioperatorias, reintervenciones por sangrado (2.3% vs 3.4%, p=0.4), arritmias (25.5% vs 13.5%, p=0.2) y disfunción neurológica (5.7% vs 2.9%, p=0.9). Finalmente la hospitalización total (6.5 {1-35} vs 4{3-16} p=0.001) y estancia en Cuidado intensivo (2.5 {1-21} vs 1{1-16} p=0.001) es superior en el grupo1. Conclusiones: el tratamiento de los aneurismas de la raíz aortica asociados a insuficiencia valvular sin daño estructural, mediante reimplante valvular o Bentall biológico modificado ofrece resultados similares a corto y mediano plazo. La preservación valvular se asocia a estancias mas cortas, pero no hay diferencia en complicaciones postoperatorias, estatus funcional, insuficiencia valvular, función ventricular, mortalidad y sobrevida libre de eventos adversos.

Sobrevivência e tamanho populacional do Tiê-preto Tachyphonus Rufus (aves: thraupidae) em fragmento de restinga no extremo Norte da Mata Atlântica

For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models

Covariance functions for body weight from birth to maturity in Nellore cows

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)