The appropriate use of climatic information in Illinois natural-gas utility weather-normalization techniques /

"ISWS/RI-112/90"--Cover.

Effects of Implements of Husbandry (Farm Equipment) on Pavement Performance, TR-563, 2012

The effects of farm equipment on the structural behavior of flexible and rigid pavements were investigated in this study. The project quantified the difference in pavement behavior caused by heavy farm equipment as compared to a typical 5-axle, 80 kip semi-truck. This research was conducted on full scale pavement test sections designed and constructed at the Minnesota Road Research facility (MnROAD). The testing was conducted in the spring and fall seasons to capture responses when the pavement is at its weakest state and when agricultural vehicles operate at a higher frequency, respectively. The flexible pavement sections were heavily instrumented with strain gauges and earth pressure cells to measure essential pavement responses under heavy agricultural vehicles, whereas the rigid pavement sections were instrumented with strain gauges and linear variable differential transducers (LVDTs). The full scale testing data collected in this study were used to validate and calibrate analytical models used to predict relative damage to pavements. The developed procedure uses various inputs (including axle weight, tire footprint, pavement structure, material characteristics, and climatic information) to determine the critical pavement responses (strains and deflections). An analysis was performed to determine the damage caused by various types of vehicles to the roadway when there is a need to move large amounts agricultural product.

Monthly average temperature modelling

This research is associated with the goal of the horticultural sector of the Colombian southwest, which is to obtain climatic information, specifically, to predict the monthly average temperature in sites where it has not been measured. The data correspond to monthly average temperature, and were recorded in meteorological stations at Valle del Cauca, Colombia, South America. Two components are identified in the data of this research: (1) a component due to the temporal aspects, determined by characteristics of the time series, distribution of the monthly average temperature through the months and the temporal phenomena, which increased (El Nino) and decreased (La Nina) the temperature values, and (2) a component due to the sites, which is determined for the clear differentiation of two populations, the valley and the mountains, which are associated with the pattern of monthly average temperature and with the altitude. Finally, due to the closeness between meteorological stations it is possible to find spatial correlation between data from nearby sites. In the first instance a random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors is obtained by month and geographical location (mountains and valley, respectively). Models for wet periods in mountains show a normal distribution in the errors; models for the valley and dry periods in mountains do not exhibit a normal pattern in the errors. In models of mountains and wet periods, omni-directional weighted variograms for residuals show spatial continuity. The random coefficient model without spatial covariance structure in the errors and the random coefficient model with spatial covariance structure in the errors are capturing the influence of the El Nino and La Nina phenomena, which indicates that the inclusion of the random part in the model is appropriate. The altitude variable contributes significantly in the models for mountains. In general, the cross-validation process indicates that the random coefficient model with spatial spherical and the random coefficient model with spatial Gaussian are the best models for the wet periods in mountains, and the worst model is the model used by the Colombian Institute for Meteorology, Hydrology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM) to predict temperature.

Analysis Of Semi-Distributed And Global Hydrological Models In The Central Tropical Basins Of The Gulf Of Mexico To The Effects Of Extreme Hydrometeorological Phenomena

In the last years extreme hydrometeorological phenomena have increased in number and intensity affecting the inhabitants of various regions, an example of these effects are the central basins of the Gulf of Mexico (CBGM) that they have been affected by 55.2% with floods and especially the state of Veracruz (1999-2013), leaving economic, social and environmental losses. Mexico currently lacks sufficient hydrological studies for the measurement of volumes in rivers, since is convenient to create a hydrological model (HM) suited to the quality and quantity of the geographic and climatic information that is reliable and affordable. Therefore this research compares the semi-distributed hydrological model (SHM) and the global hydrological model (GHM), with respect to the volumes of runoff and achieve to predict flood areas, furthermore, were analyzed extreme hydrometeorological phenomena in the CBGM, by modeling the Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) which is a SHM and the Modèle Hydrologique Simplifié à I'Extrême (MOHYSE) which is a GHM, to evaluate the results and compare which model is suitable for tropical conditions to propose public policies for integrated basins management and flood prevention. Thus it was determined the temporal and spatial framework of the analyzed basins according to hurricanes and floods. It were developed the SHM and GHM models, which were calibrated, validated and compared the results to identify the sensitivity to the real model. It was concluded that both models conform to tropical conditions of the CBGM, having MOHYSE further approximation to the real model. Worth mentioning that in Mexico there is not enough information, besides there are no records of MOHYSE use in Mexico, so it can be a useful tool for determining runoff volumes. Finally, with the SHM and the GHM were generated climate change scenarios to develop risk studies creating a risk map for urban planning, agro-hydrological and territorial organization.

ÉRIS - sistema de acompanhamento e monitoramento climático e meteorológico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Diffusive equilibration of N2, O2 and CO2 mixing ratios in a 1.5-million-years-old ice core

In the framework of the International Partnerships in Ice Core Sciences, one of the most important targets is to retrieve an Antarctic ice core that extends over the last 1.5 million years (i.e. an ice core that enters the climate era when glacial–interglacial cycles followed the obliquity cycles of the earth). In such an ice core the annual layers of the oldest ice would be thinned by a factor of about 100 and the climatic information of a 10 000 yr interval would be contained in less than 1 m of ice. The gas record in such an Antarctic ice core can potentially reveal the role of greenhouse gas forcing on these 40 000 yr cycles. However, besides the extreme thinning of the annual layers, also the long residence time of the trapped air in the ice and the relatively high ice temperatures near the bedrock favour diffusive exchanges. To investigate the changes in the O2 / N2 ratio, as well as the trapped CO2 concentrations, we modelled the diffusive exchange of the trapped gases O2, N2 and CO2 along the vertical axis. However, the boundary conditions of a potential drilling site are not yet well constrained and the uncertainties in the permeation coefficients of the air constituents in the ice are large. In our simulations, we have set the drill site ice thickness at 2700 m and the bedrock ice temperature at 5–10 K below the ice pressure melting point. Using these conditions and including all further uncertainties associated with the drill site and the permeation coefficients, the results suggest that in the oldest ice the precessional variations in the O2 / N2 ratio will be damped by 50–100%, whereas CO2 concentration changes associated with glacial–interglacial variations will likely be conserved (simulated damping 5%). If the precessional O2 / N2 signal will have disappeared completely in this future ice core, orbital tuning of the ice-core age scale will be limited.

Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean

Introduction: Chemical composition of water determines its physical properties and character of processes proceeding in it: freezing temperature, volume of evaporation, density, color, transparency, filtration capacity, etc. Presence of chemical elements in water solution confers waters special physical properties exerting significant influence on their circulation, creates necessary conditions for development and inhabitance of flora and fauna, and imparts to the ocean waters some chemical features that radically differ them from the land waters (Alekin & Liakhin, 1984). Hydrochemical information helps to determine elements of water circulation, convection depth, makes it easier to distinguish water masses and gives additional knowledge of climatic variability of ocean conditions. Hydrochemical information is a necessary part of biological research. Water chemical composition can be the governing characteristics determining possibility and limits of use of marine objects, both stationary and moving in sea water. Subject of investigation of hydrochemistry is study of dynamics of chemical composition, i.e. processes of its formation and hydrochemical conditions of water bodies (Alekin & Liakhin 1984). The hydrochemical processes in the Arctic Ocean are the least known. Some information on these processes can be obtained in odd publications. A generalizing study of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean based on expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975 has been carried out by Rusanov et al. (1979). The "Atlas of the World Ocean: the Arctic Ocean" contains a special section "Hydrochemistry" (Gorshkov, 1980). Typical vertical profiles, transects and maps for different depths - 0, 100, 300, 500, 1000, 2000, 3000 m are given in this section for the following parameters: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH and alkaline-chlorine coefficient. The maps were constructed using the data of expeditions conducted in the years 1948-1975. The illustrations reflect main features of distribution of the hydrochemical elements for multi-year period and represent a static image of hydrochemical conditions. Distribution of the hydrochemical elements on the ocean surface is given for two seasons - winter and summer, for the other depths are given mean annual fields. Aim of the present Atlas is description of hydrochemical conditions in the Arctic Ocean on the basis of a greater body of hydrochemical information for the years 1948-2000 and using the up-to-date methods of analysis and electronic forms of presentation of hydrochemical information. The most wide-spread characteristics determined in water samples were used as hydrochemical indices. They are: dissolved oxygen, phosphate, silicate, pH, total alkalinity, nitrite and nitrate. An important characteristics of water salt composition - "salinity" has been considered in the Oceanographic Atlas of the Arctic Ocean (1997, 1998). Presentation of the hydrochemical characteristics in this Hydrochemical Atlas is wider if compared with that of the former Atlas (Gorshkov, 1980). Maps of climatic distribution of the hydrochemical elements were constructed for all the standard depths, and seasonal variability of the hydrochemical parameters is given not only for the surface, but also for the underlying standard depths up to 400 m and including. Statistical characteristics of the hydrochemical elements are given for the first time. Detailed accuracy estimates of initial data and map construction are also given in the Atlas. Calculated values of mean-root deviations, maximum and minimum values of the parameters demonstrate limits of their variability for the analyzed period of observations. Therefore, not only investigations of chemical statics are summarized in the Atlas, but also some elements of chemical dynamics are demonstrated. Digital arrays of the hydrochemical elements obtained in nodes of a regular grid are the new form of characteristics presentation in the Atlas. It should be mentioned that the same grid and the same boxes were used in the Atlas, as those that had been used by creation of the US-Russian climatic Oceanographic Atlas. It allows to combine hydrochemical and oceanographic information of these Atlases. The first block of the digital arrays contains climatic characteristics calculated using direct observational data. These climatic characteristics were not calculated in the regions without observations, and the information arrays for these regions have gaps. The other block of climatic information in a gridded form was obtained with the help of objective analysis of observational data. Procedure of the objective analysis allowed us to obtain climatic estimates of the hydrochemical characteristics for the whole water area of the Arctic Ocean including the regions not covered by observations. Data of the objective analysis can be widely used, in particular, in hydrobiological investigations and in modeling of hydrochemical conditions of the Arctic Ocean. Array of initial measurements is a separate block. It includes all the available materials of hydrochemical observations in the form, as they were presented in different sources. While keeping in mind that this array contains some amount of perverted information, the authors of the Atlas assumed it necessary to store this information in its primary form. Methods of data quality control can be developed in future in the process of hydrochemical information accumulation. It can be supposed that attitude can vary in future to the data that were rejected according to the procedure accepted in the Atlas. The hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean is the first specialized and electronic generalization of hydrochemical observations in the Arctic Ocean and finishes the program of joint efforts of Russian and US specialists in preparation of a number of atlases for the Arctic. The published Oceanographic Atlas (1997, 1998), Atlas of Arctic Meteorology and Climate (2000), Ice Atlas of the Arctic Ocean prepared for publication and Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean represent a united series of fundamental generalizations of empirical knowledge of Arctic Ocean nature at climatic level. The Hydrochemical Atlas of the Arctic Ocean was elaborated in the result of joint efforts of the SRC of the RF AARI and IARC. Dr. Ye. Nikiforov was scientific supervisor of the Atlas, Dr. R. Colony was manager on behalf of the USA and Dr. L. Timokhov - on behalf of Russia.

Intra-annual patterns of tracheid size in the Mediterranean tree Juniperus thurifera as an indicator of seasonal water stress

Because climate can affect xylem cell anatomy, series of intra-annual cell anatomical features have the potential to retrospectively supply seasonal climatic information. In this study, we explored the ability to extract information about water stress conditions from tracheid features of the Mediterranean conifer Juniperus thurifera L. Tracheidograms of four climatic years from two drought-sensitive sites in Spain were compared to evaluate whether it is possible to link intra-annual cell size patterns to seasonal climatic conditions. Results indicated site-specific anatomical adjustment such as smaller and thicker tracheids at the dryer site but also showed a strong climatic imprint on the intra-annual pattern of tracheid size. Site differences in cell size reflected expected structural adjustments against cavitation failures. Differences between intra-annual patterns, however, indicated a response to seasonal changes in water availability whereby cells formed under drought conditions were smaller and thicker, and vice versa. This relationship was more manifest and stable at the dryer site

Younger Dryas-Holocene sedimentary plant-wax hydrogen isotopes from the southern European Alps

We present a Younger Dryas-Holocene record of the hydrogen isotopic composition of sedimentary plant waxes (dDwax) from the southern European Alps (Lake Ghirla, N-Italy) to investigate its sensitivity to climatic forcing variations in this mid-latitude region (45°N). A modern altitudinal transect of dD values of river water and leaf waxes in the Lake Ghirla catchment is used to test present-day climate sensitivity of dDwax. While we find that altitudinal effects on dDwax are minor at our study site, temperature, precipitation amount, and evapotranspiration all appear to influence dDwax to varying extents. In the lake-sediment record, dDwax values vary between -134 and -180 per mil over the past 13 kyr. The long-term Holocene pattern of dDwax parallels the trend of decreasing temperature and is thus likely forced by the decline of northern hemisphere summer insolation. Shorter-term fluctuations, in contrast, may reflect both temperature and moisture-source changes. During the cool Younger Dryas and Little Ice Age (LIA) periods we observe unexpectedly high dDwax values relative to those before and after. We suggest that a change towards a more D-enriched moisture source is required during these intervals. In fact, a shift from northern N-Atlantic to southern N-Atlantic/western Mediterranean Sea sources would be consistent with a southward migration of the Westerlies with climate cooling. Prominent dDwax fluctuations in the early and middle Holocene are negative and potentially associated with temperature declines. In the late Holocene (<4 kyr BP), excursions are partly positive (as for the LIA) suggesting a stronger influence of moisture-source changes on dDwax variation. In addition to isotopic fractionations of the hydrological cycle, changes in vegetation composition, in the length of the growing season, and in snowfall amount provide additional potential sources of variability, although we cannot yet quantitatively assess these in the paleo-record. We conclude that while our dDwax record from the Alps does contain climatic information, it is a complicated record that would require additional constraints to be robustly interpreted. This also has important implications for other water-isotope-based proxy records of precipitation and hydro-climate from this region, such as cave speleothems.

Stable carbon and oxygen isotope record of foraminifera from DSDP Hole 30-289

Sediments accumulate on the sea floor far from land with rates of a few millimetres to a few centimetres per thousand years. Sediments have been accumulating under broadly similar conditions, subject to similar controls, for the past 10 8 years and more. In principle we should be able to study the distribution of climatic variance with frequencies over the range 10**-3 to 10**-7 cycles per year with comparative ease. In fact, nearly all our data are heavily weighted towards the youngest part of the geological record. We study frequencies higher than 10**-4 cycles per year in the special case of a Pleistocene interglacial (the present one), and frequencies in the range 10**-4 to 10**-5 cycles per year in the special case of an ice-age. Although these may be of more direct interest to mankind than earlier periods, it may well be that we will understand the causes of climatic variability better if we can examine their operation over a longer time scale and under different boundary conditions. Rather than review the available data, I have collected some new data to show the feasibility of gathering a data base for examining climatic variability without this usual bias toward the recent. The most widely applicable tool for extracting climatic information from deep-sea sediments is oxygen isotope analysis of calcium carbonate microfossils. It is generally possible to select from the sediment both specimens of benthonic Foraminifera (that is, those that lived in ocean deep water at the sediment-water interface) and specimens of planktonic Foraminifera (that is, those that lived and formed their shells near the ocean surface, and fell to the sediment after death). Thus one is able to monitor conditions at the surface and at depth at simultaneous moments in the geological past. The necessity to analyse calcareous microfossils restricts investigation to calcareous sediments, but even with this restriction in sediment type there are many factors governing the rate of sediment accumulation. On a global scale, sediment accumulates so as to balance the input to the oceans from continental erosion. Even when averaged globally, long-term accumulation rates have varied by almost a factor of ten (Davies et al., 1977, doi:10.1126/science.197.4298.53). At the regional scale, surface productivity and deep-water physical and chemical conditions also affect the sediment accumulation rate. Since all these are susceptible to variation and may well vary in response to climatic change as well as other factors, it is extremely hazardous to attempt to express any climatic variable as a function of time on the basis of measurements originally made as a function of depth in sediment. Although time has been used as a basis for plotting Figs. i-8, these should be regarded as freehand sketches of climatic history rather than as time-series plots.

The capitals of the globe : the political, commercial, artistic and sacred capitals of Europe, Asia, Africa, North America, South America and the West Indies with graphic and accurate descriptions of all their wonders, shrines, traditions, sensations and treasures ; their political and commercial importance ; their religious, artistic and climatic attractions ; their geographical positions, physical features, history, population, industries, trade, traffic, currency, communications and hotels : the manners and customs of the inhabitants-types and costumes together with every information how to reach them, how to travel, and what it costs : superbly and profusely illustrated with engravings and color maps /

pt. 1. The capitals of Europe -- pt. 2. The capitals of Asia -- pt. 3. The capitals of Africa -- pt. 4. The capitals of North America -- pt. 5. The capitals of Central America, South America and the West Indes.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

Landscape composition and climatic parameters significant in the spread of an invasive species (Pine wood Nematode)

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente

Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D(2), +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.