Investigating the long term planning framework for the Galway Bay community from climate change.

This research looked at the scientific evidence available on climate change and in particular, projections on sea level rise which ranged from 0.5m to 2m by the end of the century. These projections were then considered in an Irish context. A review of current policy in Ireland revealed that there was no dedicated Government policy on climate change or coastal zone management. In terms of spatial planning policy, it became apparent that there was little or no guidance on climate change either at a national, regional or local level. Therefore, to determine the likely impacts of sea level rise in Ireland based on current spatial planning practice and policy, a scenario-building exercise was carried out for two case study areas in Galway Bay. The two case study areas were: Oranmore, a densely populated town located to the east of Inner Galway Bay; and Tawin Island, a rural dispersed community, located to the south east of Inner Galway Bay. A ‘best’ and ‘worse’ case scenario was envisaged for both areas in terms of sea level rise. In the absence of specific climate change policies it was projected that in the ‘best’ case scenario of 0.5m sea level rise, Tawin Island would suffer serious and adverse impacts while Oranmore was likely to experience slight to moderate impacts. However, in the ‘worse’ case scenario of a 2m sea level rise, it was likely that Tawin Island would be abandoned while many houses, businesses and infrastructure built within the floodplain of Oranmore Bay would be inundated and permanently flooded. In this regard, it was the author’s opinion that a strategic and integrated climate change policy and adaptation plan is vital for the island of Ireland that recognises the importance of integrated land use and spatial planning in terms of mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

Ecology of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in areas of Serra do Mar State Park, State of São Paulo, Brazil. I - Monthly frequency and climatic factors

The ecology of mosquitoes were studied (Diptera: Culicidae) in areas of Serra do Mar State Park, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Systematized monthly human bait collections were made three times a day, for periods of 2 or 3 h each, in sylvatic and rural areas for 24 consecutive months (January 1991 to December 1992). A total of 24,943 specimens of adult mosquitoes belonging to 57 species were collected during 622 collective periods. Coquillettidia chrysonotum was the most frequent collected mosquito (45.8%) followed by Aedes serratus (6.8%), Cq. venezuelensis (6.5%), Psorophora ferox (5.2) and Ps. albipes (3.1%). The monthly averages of temperature and relative humidity were inserted in the ten-year average limits of maximum and minimum of the previous ten-years. Rainfall accompanied the curve of the ten-year averages. Those climatic factors were influential in the incidence of some species; temperature: Anopheles cruzii, An. mediopunctatus, Ae. scapularis, Ae. fulvus, Cq. chrysonotum, Cq. venezuelensis, Runchomyia reversa, Wyeomyia dyari, Wy. confusa, Wy. shannoni, Wy. theobaldi and Limatus flavisetosus; relative humidity: Ae. serratus, Ae. scapularis, Cq. venezuelensis and Ru. reversa; rainfall: An. cruzii, Ae. scapularis, Ae. fulvus, Cq. venezuelensis Ru. reversa, Wy. theobaldi and Li. flavisetosus.

Biodiversity and influence of climatic factors on mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) around the Peixe Angical hydroelectric scheme in the state of Tocantins, Brazil

The influence of climatic factors on the seasonal frequency of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) at the Peixe Angical hydroelectric scheme (Tocantins, Brazil) was evaluated in the present paper. Mosquito surveys were conducted in the municipality of Peixe and in areas surrounding the reservoir in the municipalities of Paranã and São Salvador do Tocantins during two daytime periods (10 am-12 noon and 2 pm-4 pm) and two night-time periods (6 pm-8 pm and 6 pm-10 am) over 14 months. In total, 10,840 specimens from 42 species were captured, 84.5% of which belonged to the Culcinae. The most common species were Anopheles darlingi, Psorophora albipes and Sabethes chloropterus. The number of Culicidae specimens was higher in months with higher rainfall and air humidity than during the drier months. The large population of Ps. albipes and the presence of both An. darlingi (primary vector for human malaria parasites) and Haemagogus janthinomys (primary vector for yellow fever virus) are highlighted.

Climatic factors influencing triatomine occurrence in Central-West Brazil

We estimated the geographic distributions of triatomine species in Central-West Region of Brazil (CW) and analysed the climatic factors influencing their occurrence. A total of 3,396 records of 27 triatomine species were analysed. Using the maximum entropy method, ecological niche models were produced for eight species occurring in at least 20 municipalities based on 13 climatic variables and elevation. Triatoma sordida and Rhodnius neglectus were the species with the broadest geographic distributions in CW Brazil. The Cerrado areas in the state of Goiás were found to be more suitable for the occurrence of synanthropic triatomines than the Amazon forest areas in the northern part of the state of Mato Grosso. The variable that best explains the evaluated models is temperature seasonality. The results indicate that almost the entire region presents climatic conditions that are appropriate for at least one triatomine species. Therefore, it is recommended that entomological surveillance be reinforced in CW Brazil.

Analysis of Climatic Factors Impact on RSV Infection Distribution in Children Attending Childcare at Northwest Region of São Paulo, Brazil

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was detected in samples collected from children from 0 to 6 years of age with acute respiratory infection, attending public childcare on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil. RSV distribution was associated to seasonal climatic variables as temperature, rainfall and relative air humidity. We utilized samples of nasopharyngeal aspirate collected during the period of July 2003 to September 2005. RT-PCR was the chosen method for viral identification. Results showed that from the 817 samples (collected from 179 children), 7.7% (63/817) were RSV positive. In 2003, RSV was detected from July until October. In 2004, RSV infections occurred in March, May, June, July, October, November, and December. In 2005, RSV was detected in March, April, May, August, and September. RSV circulation patterns in childcare children showed seasonal distribution associated to decreases in temperature and relative air humidity. RSV was detected in childcare children as an important viral agent causing respiratory infections, with varying patterns of circulation into the cohort during the study period. Moreover, RSV distribution showed to be associated with the dry season on Northwest region of São Paulo, Brazil.

Climatic factors control rodent seed predation in Pinus pinea L. stands in Central Spain

- Context: Pinus pinea L. presents serious problems of natural regeneration in managed forest of Central Spain. The species exhibits specific traits linked to frugivore activity. Therefore, information on plant–animal interactions may be crucial to understand regeneration failure. - Aims: Determining the spatio-temporal pattern of P. pinea seed predation by Apodemus sylvaticus L. and the factors involved. Exploring the importance of A. sylvaticus L. as a disperser of P. pinea. Identifying other frugivores and their seasonal patterns. - Methods: An intensive 24-month seed predation trial was carried out. The probability of seeds escaping predation was modelled through a zero-inflated binomial mixed model. Experiments on seed dispersal by A. sylvaticus were conducted. Cameras were set up to identify other potential frugivores. - Results: Decreasing rodent population in summer and masting enhances seed survival. Seeds were exploited more rapidly nearby parent trees and shelters. A. sylvaticus dispersal activity was found to be scarce. Corvids marginally preyed upon P. pinea seeds. - Conclusions: Survival of P. pinea seeds is climate-controlled through the timing of the dry period together with masting occurrence. Should germination not take place during the survival period, establishment may be limited. A. sylvaticus mediated dispersal does not modify the seed shadow. Seasonality of corvid activity points to a role of corvids in dispersal.

Climate through the ages; a study of the climatic factors and their variations.

Includes bibliographies.

Climate through the ages; a study of the climatic factors and their variations

Mode of access: Internet.

Seasonal development and yield of native plants on the upper Snake River Plains and their relation to certain climatic factors /

Issued also in microfilm form, as thesis, University of Minnesota, under title: Seasonal development and yield of native plants on the upper Snake River Plains of Idaho and their relation to climatic factors, especially precipitation and temperature.

Differences in climatic factors between Ross River virus disease outbreak and nonoutbreak years

Ross River virus is a common mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand climatic factors preceding outbreaks, we compared seasonal and monthly rainfall and temperature trends in outbreak and nonoutbreak years at four epidemic-prone locations. Our analyses showed that rainfall in outbreak years tended to be above average and higher than rainfall in nonoutbreak years. Overall temperatures were warmer during outbreak years. However, there were a number of distinct deviations in temperature, which seem to play a role in either promoting or inhibiting outbreaks. These preliminary findings show that climatic differences occur between outbreak and nonoutbreak years; however, seasonal and monthly trends differed across geo-climatic regions of the country. More detailed research is imperative if we are to optimize the surveillance and control of epidemic polyarthritic disease in Australia.

A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors

Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding 1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are discussed.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Is the potential of Coccidoxenoides perminutus, a mealybug parasitoid, limited by climatic or nutritional factors?

The encyrtid Coccidoxenoides perminutus is a widely distributed parasitoid of citrus mealybug (Planococcus citri). Worldwide, it has been implicated in successful biocontrol in only a few widely separated localities. C perminutus contributes little to control P. citri in field situations in south-east Queensland, Australia, but invades insectary cultures and reduces mealybug populations considerably under these controlled conditions. This discrepancy between poor field performance and good performance under controlled conditions was investigated to establish whether climatic factors inhibit the field performance of this species in the biological control of P. citri. Subsequent laboratory examination of the influence of varied humidities and temperatures on the activity levels and survival of C perminutus revealed a low tolerance for high saturation deficits (i.e., low % RH at high T degreesC) with reduced reproductive output. The influence of different food sources on adult survival and reproduction was also quantified, to establish if the adverse effects of climate could be overcome by supplementing adult diet. Neither honeydew from their mealybug hosts nor nectar from Alphitonia flowers significantly enhanced parasitoid survival. A subsequent test of five nectar species revealed a significant difference in their influence on C. perminutus survival and reproduction, with only Alpinia zerumbet proving to be as suitable as honey. The floral species that proved suitable in the laboratory need to be checked for their attractiveness to C perminutus in the field and for their ability to enhance the survival and reproductive output of parasitoids. This information suggests that the prevailing dry conditions in south-east Queensland citrus-growing areas apparently impede successful biological control of P. citri by C perminutus, but possibilities are available for habitat manipulation (by providing suitable nectar sources for adult parasitoids) to conserve and enhance C perminutus activity in the field. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Irish Pub: past, present – whither the future?

The purpose of this research is to examine the main economic, legislative, and socio- cultural factors that are currently influencing the pub trade in Ireland and their specific impact on a sample of publicans in both Galway city and county. In approaching this task the author engaged in a comprehensive literature review on the origin, history and evolution of the Irish pub; examined the socio-cultural and economic role of the public house in Ireland and developed a profile of the Irish pub by undertaking a number of semi-structured interviews with pub owners from the area. In doing so, the author obtained the views and opinions of the publicans on the current state of their businesses, the extent to which patterns of trade have changed over recent years, the challenges and factors currently influencing their trade, the actions they believed to be necessary to promote the trade and address perceived difficulties and how they viewed the future of the pub business within the framework of the current regulatory regime. In light of this research, the author identified a number of key findings and put forward a series of recommendations designed to promote the future success and development of the pub trade in Ireland. The research established that public houses are currently operating under a very unfavourable regulatory framework that has resulted in the serious decline of the trade over the last decade. This decline appears to have coincided initially with the introduction of the ban on smoking in the workplace and was exacerbated further by the advent of more severe drink-driving laws, especially mandatory breath testing. Other unfavourable conditions include the high levels of excise duty, value added tax and local authority commercial rates. In addition to these regulatory factors, the research established that a major impediment to the pub trade is the unfair competition from supermarkets and other off-licence retail outlets and especially to the phenomenon of the below-cost selling of alcohol. The recession has also been a major contributory factor to the decline in the trade as also has been the trend towards lifestyle changes and home drinking mirroring the practice in some continental European countries.