Solar-cycle modulations of ENSO: a possible source of climatic change

An association between long-term changes in the solar cycle and the frequency of El Niño events has been identified in historical records of El Niño and sunspot number. Although no known mechanism can explain the apparent relationship, the association is strong. A possible coupling between the sun and the ocean's mixed layer, involving ENSO, is worthy of further study.

The role of direct observation in predicting climatic change

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Ocean Analysis and Prediction (COAP) in Monterey, California, has assembled information to suggest how NOAA's facilities for observing the ocean and atmosphere might be applied to studies of paleoclimate. This effort resulted, indirectly, in several projects that combine direct observations of the ocean/atmosphere system with studies of past climate of the Pacific region. This article considers concepts that link the two kinds of investigations. It defines the thesis that direct observation of systems that generate paleoclimatic information is the nexus upon which understanding of climatic variability begins and upon which prediction of climate and global change depends.

Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.

Historical evidence of abrupt coastal climatic change in Southern California, 1790-1880

Historical sources of the late-18th and 19th centuries were searched for information on coastal weather conditions in Southern California. Relatively calm winters until 1828 were followed by unusually stormy winters from about 1829 to 1839. Later periods were again predominantly calm, with notable exceptions related to the ENSO events of 1845 and 1878. Following decreases through the stormy 1830s, sizes of kelp forests appear to have rebounded in the 1840s. ENSO occurrences and eruption of the volcano Cosiguina in 1835 are likely causes for changing wind patterns. Our results link the unique AD 1840 Macoma leptonoidea pelecypod shell layer in laminated Santa Barbara Basin sediment ("Macoma event") to abruptly changing oceanographic and weather patterns.

Toxigenic molds on fish feeds-1: impact of climatic change

The present communication is a survey report carried out to assess the incidence of toxic mycoflora on seven types of agriculture products/by products incorporated during fish culture as supplementary dietary items. Samples were obtained from various sources at Darbhanga, Madhubani and Samashtipur districts during summer, winter and monsoon months. Out of the total 1774 samples, only 894 appeared to be fresh visually reflecting average incidence of contamination around 46.6%. However, the apparently fresh samples, when subjected to culture, 26.9% of them were found to be contaminated. Thus, degree of fungal spoilage in feed ingredients in parts of north Bihar appears to be significantly high (73.5%). The present study illustrates the facts with special reference to Aspergillus flavus, A. parasiticus (elaborating aflatoxins) A. ochraceous, Penicilium viradicatuin (elaborating ochratoxins) and A. versicolor (elaborating sterigmatocystin). The other strains already known for their toxigenic potentials that appeared on the present substrates included A. niger, A. fumigatus, A. candidus, P. islandicum, Rhizopus spp. and Mucur spp. Studies indicate that the prevalent climatic factors like temperature and relative humidity facilitate a congenial condition almost all through the year and in particular during summer and monsoon months. But water content of the substrates is a vital factor that further accelerates the pace of mycobial spoilage. A thorough sun-drying of the agricultural commodities before prolonged storage to bring water content below the "low risk limit" may significantly reduce the incidence of molds.

Impact of monsoonal climatic change on Holocene overbank flooding along Sushui River；middle reach of the Yellow River；China

IEECAS SKLLQG

Fate of products of degradation processes: consequences for climatic change.

The end products of atmospheric degradation are not only CO2 and H2O but also sulfate and nitrate depending on the chemical composition of the substances which are subject to degradation processes. Atmospheric degradation has thus a direct influence on the radiative balance of the earth not only due to formation of greenhouse gases but also of aerosols. Aerosols of a diameter of 0.1 to 2 micrometer, reflect short wave sunlight very efficiently leading to a radiative forcing which is estimated to be about -0.8 watt per m2 by IPCC. Aerosols also influence the radiative balance by way of cloud formation. If more aerosols are present, clouds are formed with more and smaller droplets and these clouds have a higher albedo and are more stable compared to clouds with larger droplets. Not only sulfate, but also nitrate and polar organic compounds, formed as intermediates in degradation processes, contribute to this direct and indirect aerosol effect. Estimates for the Netherlands indicate a direct effect of -4 watt m-2 and an indirect effect of as large as -5 watt m-2. About one third is caused by sulfates, one third by nitrates and last third by polar organic compounds. This large radiative forcing is obviously non-uniform and depends on local conditions.

Marine biodiversity and climate change: assessing and predicting the influence of climatic change using intertidal rocky shore biota. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 20

In the last 60 years climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seashore species. Below is a summary of the findings of this project. The MarClim project was a four year multi-partner funded project created to investigate the effects of climatic warming on marine biodiversity. In particular the project aimed to use intertidal species, whose abundances had been shown to fluctuate with changes in climatic conditions, as indicator species of likely responses of species not only on rocky shores, but also those found offshore. The project used historic time series data, from in some cases the 1950s onwards, and contemporary data collected as part of the MarClim project (2001-2005), to provide evidence of changes in the abundance, range and population structure of intertidal species and relate these changes to recent rapid climatic warming. In particular quantitative counts of barnacles, limpets and trochids were made as well as semi-quantitative surveys of up to 56 intertidal taxa.Historic and contemporary data informed experiments to understand the mechanisms behind these changes and models to predict future species ranges and abundances.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.