The lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease mortality in a subtropical climate zone in China

This research quantifies the lag effects and vulnerabilities of temperature effects on cardiovascular disease in Changsha—a subtropical climate zone of China. A Poisson regression model within a distributed lag nonlinear models framework was used to examine the lag effects of cold- and heat-related CVD mortality. The lag effect for heat-related CVD mortality was just 0–3 days. In contrast, we observed a statistically significant association with 10–25 lag days for cold-related CVD mortality. Low temperatures with 0–2 lag days increased the mortality risk for those ≥65 years and females. For all ages, the cumulative effects of cold-related CVD mortality was 6.6% (95% CI: 5.2%–8.2%) for 30 lag days while that of heat-related CVD mortality was 4.9% (95% CI: 2.0%–7.9%) for 3 lag days. We found that in Changsha city, the lag effect of hot temperatures is short while the lag effect of cold temperatures is long. Females and older people were more sensitive to extreme hot and cold temperatures than males and younger people.

Spatial and temporal variability of the freshwater reservoir effect (FRE) in lacustrine sediments in a cold climate zone, Northwest Territories (Canada)

Climate variability along the 600 km Tibbitt to Contwyoto Winter Road (TCWR) in central Northwest Territories is poorly understood. With the transportation of goods from Yellowknife to the mines projected to increase significantly as new mines open, it is critical that planners and mine developers have reasonable data on the future viability of the road, as alternative transportation costs (e.g. air transport) are prohibitively high.

The research presented here is part of a paleoclimate study based on the analysis of multiple proxy data derived from freeze cores in lakes along the TCWR.

Investigation of cooling energy performance of commercial building in sub-tropical climate through the application of green roof and living wall

This paper investigates cooling energy performance of commercial building before and after green roof and living wall application based on integrated building heat gain model developed from Overall Thermal Transfer Value (OTTV) of building wall and steady state heat transfer process of roof in sub-tropical climate. Using the modelled equation and eQUEST energy simulation tool, commercial building envelope parameters and relevant heat gain parameters have been accumulated to analyse the heat gain and cooling energy consumption of commercial building. Real life commercial building envelope and air-conditioned load data for the sub-tropical climate zone have been collected and compared with the modelled analysis. Relevant temperature data required for living wall and green roof analysis have been collected from experimental setup comprised of both green roof and west facing living wall. Then, Commercial building heat flux and cooling energy performance before and after green roof and living wall application have been scrutinized.

Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50 km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk.

Experimental study of the thermal-energy performance of an insulated vegetal facade under summer conditions in a continental mediterranean climate

The use of vegetal systems in facades affects the reduction of the buildings' energy demand, the attenuation of the urban heat island (UHI) and the filtration of pollutants present in the air. Even so, up to now the knowledge about the effect of this type of systems on the thermal performance of insulated facades is limited. This article presents the results of an experimental study carried out in a vegetal facade located in a continental Mediterranean climate zone. The objective is to study the effect of a vegetal finishing, formed by plants and substrate, on the thermal-energy performance of an insulated facade under summer conditions. To this effect, the thermal data obtained from two full-scale experimental mock-ups of the same dimensions and composition of the enclosure and only different in the south facade's enclosure where one incorporates a vegetation layer are compared and analysed. The results show that, in spite of the high thermal resistance of the enclosure, the effect of the vegetation is very positive, particularly in the warmer hours of the day. Therefore, vegetal facades can be used as a passive cooling strategy, reducing the consumption of energy for refrigeration and improving the comfort conditions of the users. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the growth of young individuals of Pinus nigra on thin carbonate soils under climate change in Hungary

Climate change highly impacts on tree growth and also threatens the forest of the karstic terrains. From the 1980s the frequency of decay events of the Pinus nigra Arnold forests showed a marked increase in Hungary. To understanding the vulnerability of Pinus nigra forests to climate change on shallow karstic soils in continental-sub Mediterranean climatic conditions we developed the study of three sampled population in the typical karstic landscape of Veszprém in North Transdanubia. We built our model on non-invasive approach using the annual growth of the individuals. MPI Echam5 climate model and as aridity index the Thornthwaite Agrometeorological Index were used. Our results indicate that soil thickness up to 11 cm has a major influence on the main growth intensity, however, aridity determines the annual growth rate. Our model results showed that the increasing decay frequency in the last decades was a parallel change to the decreasing growth rate of pines. The climate model predicts the similar, increased decay frequency to the presents. Our results can be valid for a wider areas of the periphery of Mediterranean climate zone while the annual-growth based model is a cost-effective and simple method to study the vitality of pine trees in a given area.

Exposure of pipe insulation to high temperatures from domestic pumped storage (split) solar water heating systems in Australia and New Zealand

Pipe insulation between the collector and storage tank on pumped storage (commonly called split), solar water heaters can be subject to high temperatures, with a maximum equal to the collector stagnation temperature. The frequency of occurrence of these temperatures is dependent on many factors including climate, hot water demand, system size and efficiency. This paper outlines the findings of a computer modelling study to quantify the frequency of occurrence of pipe temperatures of 80 degrees Celsius or greater at the outlet of the collectors for these systems. This study will help insulation suppliers determine the suitability of their materials for this application. The TRNSYS program was used to model the performance of a common size of domestic split solar system, using both flat plate and evacuated tube, selective surface collectors. Each system was modelled at a representative city in each of the 6 climate zones for Australia and New Zealand, according to AS/NZS4234 - Heat Water Systems - Calculation of energy consumption, and the ORER RECs calculation method. TRNSYS was used to predict the frequency of occurrence of the temperatures that the pipe insulation would be exposed to over an average year, for hot water consumption patterns specified in AS/NZS4234, and for worst case conditions in each of the climate zones. The results show; * For selectively surfaced, flat plate collectors in the hottest location (Alice Sprints) with a medium size hot water demand according to AS/NZS2434, the annual frequency of occurrence of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 33 hours. The frequency of temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius was insignificant. * For evacuated tube collectors in the hottest location (Alice Springs), the annual frequency of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 50 hours. Temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius were significant and were estimated to occur for more than 21 hours per year in this climate zone. Even in Melbourne, temperatures at and above 80 degrees can occur for 12 hours per year and at and above 140 degrees for 5 hours per year. * The worst case identified was for evacuated tube collectors in Alice Springs, with mostly afternoon loads in January. Under these conditions, the frequency of temperatures at and above 80 degrees Celsius was 10 hours for this month only. Temperatures at and above 140 degrees Celsius were predicted to occur for 5 hours in January.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Statistical modelling of district-level residential electricity use in NSW, Australia

Electricity network investment and asset management require accurate estimation of future demand in energy consumption within specified service areas. For this purpose, simple models are typically developed to predict future trends in electricity consumption using various methods and assumptions. This paper presents a statistical model to predict electricity consumption in the residential sector at the Census Collection District (CCD) level over the state of New South Wales, Australia, based on spatial building and household characteristics. Residential household demographic and building data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and actual electricity consumption data from electricity companies are merged for 74 % of the 12,000 CCDs in the state. Eighty percent of the merged dataset is randomly set aside to establish the model using regression analysis, and the remaining 20 % is used to independently test the accuracy of model prediction against actual consumption. In 90 % of the cases, the predicted consumption is shown to be within 5 kWh per dwelling per day from actual values, with an overall state accuracy of -1.15 %. Given a future scenario with a shift in climate zone and a growth in population, the model is used to identify the geographical or service areas that are most likely to have increased electricity consumption. Such geographical representation can be of great benefit when assessing alternatives to the centralised generation of energy; having such a model gives a quantifiable method to selecting the 'most' appropriate system when a review or upgrade of the network infrastructure is required.

Toward a model for predicting magnetic susceptibility of bedrock regolith and soils

One of the Department of Defense's most pressing environmental problems is the efficient detection and identification of unexploded ordnance (UXO). In regions of highly magnetic soils, magnetic and electromagnetic sensors often detect anomalies that are of geologic origin, adding significantly to remediation costs. In order to develop predictive models for magnetic susceptibility, it is crucial to understand modes of formation and the spatial distribution of different iron oxides. Most rock types contain iron and their magnetic susceptibility is determined by the amount and form of iron oxides present. When rocks weather, the amount and form of the oxides change, producing concomitant changes in magnetic susceptibility. The type of iron oxide found in the weathered rock or regolith is a function of the duration and intensity of weathering, as well as the original content of iron in the parent material. The rate of weathering is controlled by rainfall and temperature; thus knowing the climate zone, the amount of iron in the lithology and the age of the surface will help predict the amount and forms of iron oxide. We have compiled analyses of the types, amounts, and magnetic properties of iron oxides from soils over a wide climate range, from semi arid grasslands, to temperate regions, and tropical forests. We find there is a predictable range of iron oxide type and magnetic susceptibility according to the climate zone, the age of the soil and the amount of iron in the unweathered regolith.

Community structure, diversity and spatial organization of enchytraeids in Mediterranean urban holm oak stands

There is a strong northern bias in Europe as regards enchytraeid community ecology, particularly in urban settings. We approached the enchytraeid assemblages of urban holm oak stands in Naples and Siena adopting a high intensity sampling that, for the first time in the Mediterranean climate zone, would ensure that the data collected be representative of the target populations. Structural parameters (diversity and evenness, biomass, size classes, aggregation) were compared across different spatial (regional, urban district, within habitat) and temporal scales (season and year). Species richness was found to change significantly only at regional scale; background data suggest that this may depend on the higher environmental heterogeneity occurring at Naples. Differences in size class structure were significant only on a seasonal scale and within either city separately. With one exception (Fridericia bulbosa s.s.), the patterns of spatial aggregation of the common species were fairly robust and the total range of patchiness was consistent with previous studies, despite the different sampling methodologies. The size of the sampling unit, the number of replicates per plot and the number of plots proposed in this study appear suitable to obviate the difficulties of evaluating Mediterranean enchytraeid communities.

Estudo comparativo entre o sistema convencional de arrefecimento e o arrefecedor evaporativo para os edifícios industriais portugueses

Em Portugal existem muitos espaços comerciais e industriais em que as necessidades térmicas de arrefecimento são muito superiores às necessidades de aquecimento devido aos ganhos internos que advêm da existência de equipamentos e da iluminação dos edifícios, assim como, da presença das pessoas. A instalação de sistemas convencionais de ar condicionado para espaços comerciais e industriais de grande dimensão está geralmente associada ao transporte de grandes caudais de ar, e consequentemente, a elevados consumos de energia primária, e também, elevados custos de investimento, de manutenção e de operação. O arrefecedor evaporativo é uma solução de climatização com elevada eficiência energética, cujo princípio de funcionamento promove a redução do consumo de energia primária nos edifícios. A metodologia utilizada baseou-se na criação de uma ferramenta informática de simulação do funcionamento de um protótipo de um arrefecedor evaporativo. Foi efetuada a modelação matemática das variáveis dinâmicas envolvidas, dos processos de transferência de calor e de massa, assim como dos balanços de energia que ocorrem no arrefecedor evaporativo. A ferramenta informática desenvolvida permite o dimensionamento do protótipo do arrefecedor evaporativo, sendo determinadas as caraterísticas técnicas (potência térmica, caudal, eficiência energética, consumo energético e consumo e água) de acordo com o tipo de edifício e com as condições climatéricas do ar exterior. Foram selecionados três dimensionamentos de arrefecedores evaporativos, representativos de condições reais de uma gama baixa, média e elevada de caudais de ar. Os resultados obtidos nas simulações mostram que a potência de arrefecimento (5,6 kW, 16,0 kW e 32,8 kW) e o consumo de água (8 l/h, 23,9 l/h e 48,96 l/h) aumentam com o caudal de ar do arrefecedor, 5.000 m3/h, 15.000 m3/h e 30.000 m3/h, respetivamente. A eficácia de permuta destes arrefecedores evaporativos, foi de 69%, 66% e 67%, respetivamente. Verificou-se que a alteração de zona climática de V1 para V2 implicou um aumento de 39% na potência de arrefecimento e de 20% no consumo de água, e que, a alteração de zona climática de V2 para V3 implicou um aumento de 39% na potência de arrefecimento e de 39% no consumo de água. O arrefecedor evaporativo apresenta valores de consumo de energia elétrica entre 40% a 80% inferiores aos dos sistemas de arrefecimento convencionais, sendo este efeito mais intenso quando a zona climática de verão se torna mais severa.

Estimated lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden using time-to-event analysis

Maintenance planning of road pavement requires reliable estimates of roads’ lifetimes. In determining the lifetime of a road, this study combines maintenance activities and road condition measurements. The scope of the paper is to estimate lifetimes of road pavements in Sweden with time to event analysis. The model used includes effects of pavement type, road type, bearing capacity, road width, speed limit, stone size and climate zone, where the model is stratified according to traffic load. Among the nine analyzed pavement types, stone mastic had the longest expected lifetime, 32 percent longer than asphalt concrete. Among road types, ordinary roads with cable barriers had 30 percent shorter lifetime than ordinary roads. Increased speed lowered the lifetime, while increased stone size (up to 20 mm) and increased road width lengthened the lifetime. The results are of importance for life cycle cost analysis and road management.

Basal metabolic rate of canidae from hot deserts to cold arctic climates

Canids form the most widely distributed family within the order Carnivora, with members present in a multitude of different environments from cold arctic to hot, dry deserts. We reviewed the literature and compared 24 data sets available on the basal metabolic rate (BMR) of 12 canid species, accounting for body mass and climate, to examine inter- and intraspecific variations in mass-adjusted BMR between 2 extreme climates (arctic and hot desert). Using both conventional and phylogenetically independent analysis of covariance, we found that canids from the arctic climate zone had significantly higher mass-adjusted BMR than species from hot deserts. Canids not associated with either arctic or desert climates had an intermediate and more variable mass-adjusted BMR. The climate effect also was significant at the intraspecific level in species for which we had data in 2 different climates. Arctic and desert climates represent contrasting combinations of ambient temperatures and water accessibility that require opposite physiological adaptations in terms of metabolism. The fact that BMR varies within species when individuals are subjected to different climate regimes further suggests that climate is an important determinant of BMR.

Características biométricas das sementes e descrição da resposta germinativa pelo modelo do tempo térmico em diferentes populações de Peltophorum dubium (Spreng.) Taub

Pós-graduação em Ciências Biológicas (Biologia Vegetal) - IBRC